scholarly journals Age separation dramatically reduces COVID-19 mortality rate in a computational model of a large population

Open Biology ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 200213
Author(s):  
Liron Mizrahi ◽  
Huda Adwan Shekhidem ◽  
Shani Stern

COVID-19 pandemic has caused a global lockdown in many countries throughout the world. Faced with a new reality, and until a vaccine or efficient treatment is found, humanity must figure out ways to keep the economy going, on one hand, while keeping the population safe, on the other hand, especially those that are susceptible to this virus. Here, we use a Watts–Strogatz network simulation, with parameters that were drawn from what is already known about the virus, to explore five different scenarios of partial lockdown release in two geographical locations with different age distributions. We find that separating age groups by reducing interactions between them protects the general population and reduces mortality rates. Furthermore, the addition of new connections within the same age group to compensate for the lost connections outside the age group still has a strong beneficial influence and reduces the total death toll by about 62%. While complete isolation from society may be the most protective scenario for the elderly population, it would have an emotional and possibly cognitive impact that might outweigh its benefit. Therefore, we propose creating age-related social recommendations or even restrictions, thereby allowing social connections while still offering strong protection for the older population.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liron Mizrahi ◽  
Shani Stern

AbstractCOVID-19 pandemic has caused a global lock down in many countries throughout the world. Faced with a new reality, and until a vaccine or efficient treatment is found, humanity must figure out ways to keep economy going on one hand, yet keep the population safe on the other hand, especially those that are susceptible to this virus. Here we use a network simulation, with parameters that were drawn from what is known about the virus, to explore 5 different scenarios of partial lock down release. We find that separating age groups by reducing interactions between age groups, protects the general population and reduces mortality rates. Furthermore, addition of new connections within the same age group to compensate for the lost connections outside the age group, still has a strong beneficial influence and reduces the total death toll by 66%. While complete isolation from society may be the most protective scenario for the elderly population, it would have an emotional and possibly cognitive impact that might outweigh its benefit. We therefore propose creating age-related social recommendations or even restrictions, thereby allowing social connections but still strong protection for the older population.


2005 ◽  
Vol 15 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 255-262 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilana Crome ◽  
Roger Bloor

Substance misuse in the elderly population has been referred to as a silent epidemic. One of the factors that contributes to the appropriateness of this description is the difficulty of diagnosis in this age group. There is abundant evidence that substance misuse is under-diagnosed in elderly people and that this applies to both alcohol and drug misuse, although the general principles of a diagnostic approach are not age-related. The increased incidence of anxiety, depression, dementing illness, and physical illness in this population, independent of substance misuse, means that diagnoses can often be missed. The impact of co-morbidity (Figure 1) in older age groups is such that it remains the most important confounding factor in diagnosis. In this second section of the review we explore the range of psychiatric and physical illnesses that can coexist with, or be caused by, substance misuse in the elderly population. The issue of assessment as part of a treatment framework is considered in the third section of the review. The risk of missed diagnosis in this age group was illustrated in a study of diagnosis of substance misuse problems in patients aged 65 and over who had been admitted to hospital. Only three out of a total of 88 patients using benzodiazepines, 29 out of 76 smokers, and 33 out of 99 problem drinkers were correctly identified. Of those who were identified only a small proportion were referred on for specialist treatment.


2003 ◽  
Vol 88 (1) ◽  
pp. 185-191 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reinhold Vieth ◽  
Yasmin Ladak ◽  
Paul G. Walfish

Vitamin D requirements are thought to vary with age, but there is little comparative evidence for this. One goal in establishing a vitamin D requirement is to avoid secondary hyperparathyroidism. We studied 1741 euthyroid, thyroid clinic outpatients without evidence of calcium abnormalities, ranging in age from 19 to 97 yr, whose serum and urine had been analyzed for calcium, vitamin D, and parathyroid status. We found no effect of age on the 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentration associated with specific vitamin D intakes, and there was no relationship between 25(OH)D and 1,25hydroxyvitamin D [1,25(OH)2D]. In every age group, serum 1,25(OH)2D declined with increasing creatinine (P < 0.001). What changed with age included creatinine, which correlated with 25(OH)D (r = 0.146, P < 0.001) only in the youngest age group (19–50 yr) but not in the older age groups (P > 0.1). Creatinine did not correlate with PTH in the youngest age group, but the relationship became significant as age increased (e.g. for the elderly, r = 0.365, P < 0.001). Linear regression of log PTH vs. log 25(OH)D agreed with the natural shape of the relationship observed with scatterplot smoothing, and this showed no plateau in PTH as 25(OH)D increased. We compared PTH concentrations among age groups, based on 20 nmol/liter increments in 25(OH)D. Mean PTH in adults older than 70 yr was consistently higher than in adults younger than 50 yr (P < 0.05 by ANOVA and Dunnett’s t test). PTH levels of the elderly who had 25(OH)D concentrations greater than 100 nmol/liter matched PTH of younger adults having 25(OH)D concentrations near 70 nmol/liter. This study shows that all age groups exhibit a high prevalence of 25(OH)D insufficiency and secondary hyperparathyroidism. Older adults are just as efficient in maintaining 25(OH)D, but they need more vitamin D to produce the higher 25(OH)D concentrations required to overcome the hyperparathyroidism associated with their diminishing renal function.


2014 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alikhan Shortanbayev ◽  
Beibitgul Bizhigitova ◽  
Anel Tarabayeva ◽  
Aliya Nurmuchanbetova

Introduction. The study of the cytokine profile during aging is interesting because age-related changes of the immune status are usually correlate with the onset of specific diseases. Characteristics of cytokine activity in the elderly can not only detail the pathogenesis of the disease but also help to choose the appropriate therapeutic strategy, which in addition to the therapeutic effect could improve the quality of life of the elderly. The purpose of this study was to examine cytokine levels in older adults.Material and methods. We examined 268 people aged 45-80 years and older. All surveyed individuals were divided into 8 different age groups. All participants were tested for concentrations of IL-1β, IL-2, TNF-a and IFN-γ.Results. The study found that concentrations of TNF-a increased with age. For age group 45-49, the concentration of TNF-a was 5.94 pcg/ml. In older age groups, there was a gradual increase in cytokine concentration. In a group of centenarians, concentration of TNF-a  reached 20.55 pcg/ml, which is 3.4 times higher compared to the middle age group. Similar trends were found in the concentration of IL-1. For the age group of 45-49, the concentration of IL-1 b was 3.38 pcg/ml, and in the age group of 80 years and older, levels of this cytokine increased almost 5 times. It was found that with age-related there is a gradual decrease in the level of IL-2, and a gradual increase of IFN-γ. The decrease in IL-2 is due to the typical aging decrease in the amount of T-lymphocytes.Conclusion. Thus, our results indicate that there are significant deviations of immune parameters, particularly in cytokine concentrations, in older adults compared to middle aged adults. 


Blood ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 136 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 1-1
Author(s):  
Snegha Ananth ◽  
Madison H. Williams ◽  
Ryan A. Williams ◽  
Jean Pierre Blaize ◽  
David Gregorio ◽  
...  

Introduction: Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), is predominantly diagnosed in the elderly with a median age of diagnosis approaching the seventh decade of life. The prognosis for DLBCL has improved for all age groups, but less so for those over 75 years of age. The VHA (Veterans Health Administration) is one of the largest integrated provider of cancer care in the United States and its population, on average, is older than the general US population, giving us an unique advantage in exploring outcomes in elderly population. Methods: We reviewed 2036 medical records on patients that had a diagnosis code of some form of lymphoma between 2011 to 2017. Patients were randomly selected. Inclusion criteria was any veteran with atleast one entry in their records of selected ICD-9 and ICD-10 codes for lymphoma. Exclusion criteria included primary CNS lymphoma, other low grade variant lymphomas, diagnosis and treatment outside VHA, inability to determine if patient record met study criteria or inability to fill in critical fields of interest for the study. 971 patients were included. Data was manually abstracted by trained researchers. The Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test was used to compare median Overall Survival (OS) between two groups. All statistical comparisons were made using the R statistical analysis package. A level of significance of 0.05 was used for all the tests. Results: Of the 971 patients that met the inclusion criteria, 739 (76.1%) were <75 years and 232 (23.9%) were ≥75 years. Larger number of veterans were diagnosed at Stage III-IV (67% in <75 years and 67.7% in ≥75 years, p=0.76) with higher IPI score >3 (50.1 % in <75 years and 60.4% in ≥75 years, p=0.0005). Further descriptive comparison is outlined in Table 1. Patients in the <75 years age group received more lines of chemotherapy (p<0.0001). The ≥75 years older age group was more likely to have no treatment or non-chemo treatment (15.5% vs 3.9%) and the under 75 group was more likely to have 2 or more lines of treatment (8.9% vs 2.6%). For those who received chemotherapy, 82.4% in <75 years vs 76.3% in ≥75 years completed at least 4 cycles of therapy (p=0.07). However, 1 year, 2 years and median OS, was statistically different between the two age groups for all three measurements (p<0.0001) and survival decreases as age at diagnosis increases. (Table 2, Figure 1). Conclusions: Nearly 1/4th of the patient population were older than 75 years, and despite receiving comparable lines of chemotherapy, had lower survival when compared to patients who were <75 years. Previous studies (Lee et al, Cancer 2003 & Kenneth R.Carson et al, Blood 2012) have reported the role of an anthracycline or treatment related mortality contributing to inferior outcomes in the elderly population. While historical data supports CHOP at maximal doses in elderly, a re-assessment of dose intensity, role of anthracyclines and finding a balance between short-term efficacy and safety is a priority for this age group given increasing human longevity. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.


2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Igor Dumic ◽  
Terri Nordin ◽  
Mladen Jecmenica ◽  
Milica Stojkovic Lalosevic ◽  
Tomica Milosavljevic ◽  
...  

Considering an increase in the life expectancy leading to a rise in the elderly population, it is important to recognize the changes that occur along the process of aging. Gastrointestinal (GI) changes in the elderly are common, and despite some GI disorders being more prevalent in the elderly, there is no GI disease that is limited to this age group. While some changes associated with aging GI system are physiologic, others are pathological and particularly more prevalent among those above age 65 years. This article reviews the most important GI disorders in the elderly that clinicians encounter on a daily basis. We highlight age-related changes of the oral cavity, esophagus, stomach, small and large bowels, and the clinical implications of these changes. We review epidemiology and pathophysiology of common diseases, especially as they relate to clinical manifestation in elderly. Details regarding management of specific disease are discussed in detail if they significantly differ from the management for younger groups or if they are associated with significant challenges due to side effects or polypharmacy. Cancers of GI tract are not included in the scope of this article.


Nutrients ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 183
Author(s):  
Anna Izzo ◽  
Elena Massimino ◽  
Gabriele Riccardi ◽  
Giuseppe Della Pepa

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) represents a major health burden for the elderly population, affecting approximately 25% of people over the age of 65 years. This percentage is expected to increase dramatically in the next decades in relation to the increased longevity of the population observed in recent years. Beyond microvascular and macrovascular complications, sarcopenia has been described as a new diabetes complication in the elderly population. Increasing attention has been paid by researchers and clinicians to this age-related condition—characterized by loss of skeletal muscle mass together with the loss of muscle power and function—in individuals with T2DM; this is due to the heavy impact that sarcopenia may have on physical and psychosocial health of diabetic patients, thus affecting their quality of life. The aim of this narrative review is to provide an update on: (1) the risk of sarcopenia in individuals with T2DM, and (2) its association with relevant features of patients with T2DM such as age, gender, body mass index, disease duration, glycemic control, presence of microvascular or macrovascular complications, nutritional status, and glucose-lowering drugs. From a clinical point of view, it is necessary to improve the ability of physicians and dietitians to recognize early sarcopenia and its risk factors in patients with T2DM in order to make appropriate therapeutic approaches able to prevent and treat this condition.


2021 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
pp. 117863612098860
Author(s):  
Vishal Shah

The Human respiratory tract is colonized by a variety of microbes and the microbiota change as we age. In this perspective, literature support is presented for the hypothesis that the respiratory system microbiota could explain the differential age and sex breakdown amongst COVID-19 patients. The number of patients in the older and elderly adult group is higher than the other age groups. The perspective presents the possibility that certain genera of bacteria present in the respiratory system microbiota in children and young adults could be directly or through eliciting an immune response from the host, prevent full-fledged infection of SARS-CoV-2. The possibility also exists that the microbiota in older adults and the elderly population have bacteria that make it easier for the virus to cause infection. I call upon the scientific community to investigate the link between human microbiota and SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility to further understand the viral pathogenesis.


Vaccines ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 624
Author(s):  
Laura M. Stephens ◽  
Steven M. Varga

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is most commonly associated with acute lower respiratory tract infections in infants and children. However, RSV also causes a high disease burden in the elderly that is often under recognized. Adults >65 years of age account for an estimated 80,000 RSV-associated hospitalizations and 14,000 deaths in the United States annually. RSV infection in aged individuals can result in more severe disease symptoms including pneumonia and bronchiolitis. Given the large disease burden caused by RSV in the aged, this population remains an important target for vaccine development. Aging results in lowered immune responsiveness characterized by impairments in both innate and adaptive immunity. This immune senescence poses a challenge when developing a vaccine targeting elderly individuals. An RSV vaccine tailored towards an elderly population will need to maximize the immune response elicited in order to overcome age-related defects in the immune system. In this article, we review the hurdles that must be overcome to successfully develop an RSV vaccine for use in the elderly, and discuss the vaccine candidates currently being tested in this highly susceptible population.


2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maki Asada ◽  
Motoyuki Horii ◽  
Kazuya Ikoma ◽  
Tsuyoshi Goto ◽  
Naoki Okubo ◽  
...  

Abstract Summary In Kyoto Prefecture, Japan, the number of hip fractures increased during 2013–2017 compared to 2008–2012. However, the estimated overall incidence rate increased only in femoral neck fractures in men aged ≥75 and women aged ≥85. Purpose The incidence rate of hip fractures in Japan has plateaued or decreased. We investigated the annual hip fracture occurrences in Kyoto Prefecture, Japan, from 2008 to 2017. Methods Patients aged 65 years and above who sustained hip fractures between 2008 and 2017 and were treated at one of the participating 11 hospitals were included. The total number of beds in these institutions was 3701, accounting for 21.5% of the 17,242 acute-care beds in Kyoto Prefecture. The change in incidence rate was estimated utilizing the population according to the national census conducted in 2010 and 2015. Results The total number of hip fractures was 10,060, with 47.5% femoral neck fractures and 52.5% trochanteric fractures. A decrease in number was seen only in trochanteric fractures in the group of 75- to 84-year-old women. The population-adjusted numbers of femoral neck fractures showed a significant increase in all age groups in men, whereas in women, there was an increase in femoral neck fractures in the ≥85 group and trochanteric fractures in the age group 65–74, and a decrease in trochanteric fractures in the age group 75–84. The estimated change in incidence rate showed an increase in femoral neck fractures in men aged ≥75 and women aged ≥85. Conclusion In Kyoto Prefecture, the number of hip fractures increased in the second half of the study period (2013–2017) compared to the first half (2008–2012). However, the incidence rate had not increased, except in femoral neck fractures in men aged ≥75 and women aged ≥85.


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