Predicting evolution in response to climate change: the example of sprouting probability in three dormancy-prone orchid species

Although many ecological properties of species respond to climate change, their evolutionary responses are poorly understood. Here, we use data from long-term demographic studies to predict evolutionary responses of three herbaceous perennial orchid species, Cypripedium parviflorum , C. candidum and Ophrys sphegodes , to predicted climate changes in the habitats they occupy. We focus on the evolution of sprouting probability, because all three species exhibit long-term vegetative dormancy, i.e. individual plants may not emerge above-ground, potentially for several consecutive years. The drivers of all major vital rates for populations of the species were analysed with general linear mixed models (GLMMs). High-dimensionality function-based matrix projection models were then developed to serve as core elements of deterministic and stochastic adaptive dynamics models used to analyse the adaptive context of sprouting in all populations. We then used regional climate forecasts, derived from high-resolution general atmospheric circulation models, of increased mean annual temperatures and spring precipitation at the occupied sites, to predict evolutionary trends in sprouting. The models predicted that C. parviflorum and O. sphegodes will evolve higher and lower probabilities of sprouting, respectively, by the end of the twenty-first century, whereas, after considerable variation, the probability of sprouting in C. candidum will return to its current level. These trends appear to be driven by relationships between mortality and size: in C. parviflorum and C. candidum , mortality is negatively related to size in the current year but positively related to growth since the previous year, whereas in O. sphegodes , mortality is positively related to size.

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Climate Change Controls Phosphorus Transport from the Watershed into Lake Kinneret (Israel)

10.1101/2021.03.16.435628 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Moshe Gophen

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Regional Climate Change ◽

Lake Kinneret ◽

Phosphorus Transport ◽

Efficient Management ◽

Hula Valley ◽

Reclamation Project ◽

The Impact

AbstractPart of the Kinneret watershed, the Hula Valley, was modified from wetlands – shallow lake for agricultural cultivation. Enhancement of nutrient fluxes into Lake Kinneret was predicted. Therefore, a reclamation project was implemented and eco-tourism partly replaced agriculture. Since the mid-1980s, regional climate change has been documented. Statistical evaluation of long-term records of TP (Total Phosphorus) concentrations in headwaters and potential resources in the Hula Valley was carried out to identify efficient management design targets. Significant correlation between major headwater river discharge and TP concentration was indicated, whilst the impact of external fertilizer loads and 50,000 winter migratory cranes was probably negligible. Nevertheless, confirmed severe bdamage to agricultural crops carried out by cranes led to their maximal deportation and optimization of their feeding policy. Consequently, the continuation of the present management is recommended.

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Cultural implications of late Holocene climate change in the Cuenca Oriental, Mexico

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ◽

10.1073/pnas.1405653112 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 112 (6) ◽

pp. 1693-1698 ◽

Cited By ~ 37

Author(s):

Tripti Bhattacharya ◽

Roger Byrne ◽

Harald Böhnel ◽

Kurt Wogau ◽

Ulrike Kienel ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Political Factors ◽

X Ray ◽

Cultural Implications ◽

Monsoonal Precipitation ◽

History Of ◽

Drying Trend ◽

Maar Lake

There is currently no consensus on the importance of climate change in Mesoamerican prehistory. Some invoke drought as a causal factor in major cultural transitions, including the abandonment of many sites at 900 CE, while others conclude that cultural factors were more important. This lack of agreement reflects the fact that the history of climate change in many regions of Mesoamerica is poorly understood. We present paleolimnological evidence suggesting that climate change was important in the abandonment of Cantona between 900 CE and 1050 CE. At its peak, Cantona was one of the largest cities in pre-Columbian Mesoamerica, with a population of 90,000 inhabitants. The site is located in the Cuenca Oriental, a semiarid basin east of Mexico City. We developed a subcentennial reconstruction of regional climate from a nearby maar lake, Aljojuca. The modern climatology of the region suggests that sediments record changes in summer monsoonal precipitation. Elemental geochemistry (X-ray fluorescence) and δ18O from authigenic calcite indicate a centennial-scale arid interval between 500 CE and 1150 CE, overlaid on a long-term drying trend. Comparison of this record to Cantona’s chronology suggests that both the city’s peak population and its abandonment occurred during this arid period. The human response to climate change most likely resulted from the interplay of environmental and political factors. During earlier periods of Cantona’s history, increasing aridity and political unrest may have actually increased the city’s importance. However, by 1050 CE, this extended arid period, possibly combined with regional political change, contributed to the city’s abandonment.

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A conceptual framework for multi-regional climate change assessments for international market systems with long-term investments

Climatic Change ◽

10.1007/s10584-009-9781-1 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 103 (3-4) ◽

pp. 445-470 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

Julie A. Winkler ◽

Suzanne Thornsbury ◽

Marco Artavia ◽

Frank-M. Chmielewski ◽

Dieter Kirschke ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Conceptual Framework ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Regional Climate Change ◽

International Market

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Local effects of global climate change on the urban drainage system of Hamburg

Water Science & Technology ◽

10.2166/wst.2013.320 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 68 (5) ◽

pp. 1107-1113 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Klaus Krieger ◽

Andreas Kuchenbecker ◽

Nina Hüffmeyer ◽

Hans-Reinhard Verworn

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Planning Process ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Drainage System ◽

Primary Objective ◽

Combined Sewer Overflows ◽

Sewer Network

The Hamburg Water Group owns and operates a sewer network with a total length of more than 5,700 km. There has been increasing attention paid to the possible impacts of predicted changes in precipitation patterns on the sewer network infrastructure. The primary objective of the work presented in this paper is an estimation of the hydraulic impacts of climate change on the Hamburg drainage system. As a first step, simulated rainfalls based on the regional climate model REMO were compared and validated with long-term precipitation measurements. In the second step, the hydraulic effects on the sewer network of Hamburg have been analyzed based on simulated long-term rainfall series for the period of 2000–2100. Simulation results show a significant increase in combined sewer overflows by 50% as well as an increase in surcharges of storm sewer manholes. However, there is still a substantial amount of uncertainty resulting from model uncertainty and unknown development of future greenhouse gas emissions. So far, there seems to be no sound basis for the implementation of an overall climate factor for sewer dimensioning for the Hamburg region. Nevertheless, possible effects of climate change should be taken into account within the planning process for major sewer extensions or modifications.

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Vulnerabilidade da mesorregião Norte de Minas Gerais face às mudanças climáticas \ The vulnerability of the Northern Minas Gerais mesoregion in the face of climate change

Caderno de Geografia ◽

10.5752/p.2318-2962.2019v29n56p134 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 29 (56) ◽

pp. 134 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Letícia Oliveira Freitas ◽

Tomás Calheiros ◽

Ruibran Januário dos Reis

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Minas Gerais ◽

Climate Mitigation ◽

Medium Term ◽

Representative Concentration Pathways ◽

Industrial Sectors ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Climate Downscaling

As mudanças climáticas já são realidade e os relatórios do Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC) deixam claro que mudanças aceleradas vêm sendo observadas após a revolução industrial, em função de atividades antropogênicas. Variações climáticas significativas podem mudar as características físicas atuais, impor restrições de ocupações e impactar os setores ambiental, social e econômico. Com clima quente e seco, a mesorregião Norte de Minas Gerais se mostra frágil às mudanças climáticas. Importantes atividades econômicas como agricultura, pecuária, agroindústrias e usinas hidrelétricas estão relacionadas às condições climáticas. A ocupação por populações com perfil socioeconômico limitado coloca a mesorregião em situação de vulnerabilidade. Neste estudo são mostradas as projeções futuras de temperatura e precipitação, considerando um Modelo Climático Regional forçado por dois diferentes Modelos Climáticos Globais fornecidos pelo Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), para médio prazo (2041-2070) e longo prazo (2071-2100) em dois cenários climáticos Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), assumindo maiores (RCP 8.5) ou menores (RCP 4.5) emissões de Gases de Efeito Estufa (GEE). Os modelos projetam aumento da temperatura em até 4ºC a médio prazo e até 5ºC a longo prazo, sendo mais intenso na primavera. Os modelos estimam secas no outono e inverno, chuvas de até 1000mm no verão e entre 400 e 800mm na primavera, com considerável variação espacial. Os efeitos dessas alterações são potenciais para atingirem os setores agropecuário, energético e industrial, a qualidade de vida e saúde das populações e a economia em nível regional. A implementação de medidas de mitigação e adaptação ao clima são desafiantes para populações com economias pouco desenvolvidas, como as do Norte de Minas.Palavras–chave: Mudanças climáticas. Modelos climáticos regionais. Temperatura e precipitação. Vulnerabilidade. Mesorregião Norte de Minas Gerais.Climate change is already a reality, and the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) make it clear that accelerated changes have been observed following the industrial revolution as a result of anthropogenic activities. Significant climatic variations can change current physical characteristics, impose technical constraints, and impact the environmental, social, and economic sectors. With a hot and dry climate, the northern mesoregion of Minas Gerais is fragile to climate change. Principal economic activities such as agriculture, livestock, agribusiness and hydroelectric plants are related to climatic conditions. The occupation by populations with a limited socioeconomic profile places the mesoregion in a situation of vulnerability. In this study the future projections of temperature and precipitation are shown, considering a Regional Climatic Model forced by two different Global Climate Models provided by the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), medium term (2041-2070) and long term (2071-2100 ) in two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) climatic scenarios, assuming larger (RCP 8.5) or lower (RCP 4.5) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The models project a temperature increase of up to 4ºC in the medium term and up to 5ºC in the long term, being more intense in the spring. The models estimate droughts in autumn and winter, rainfall up to 1000mm in summer and between 400 and 800mm in spring, with considerable spatial variation. The effects of these changes are potential to reach the agricultural, energy and industrial sectors, the quality of life and health of populations and the economy at the regional level. The implementation of climate mitigation and adaptation measures is challenging for populations with poor economies, such as those in Northern Minas.

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A multi-century spring precipitation history for northern Iran derived from tree-ring δ18O

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15355 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Zeynab Foroozan ◽

Jussi Grießinger ◽

Kambiz Pourtahmasi ◽

Achim Bräuning

Keyword(s):

Tree Ring ◽

Large Scale ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Spring Precipitation ◽

Northern Iran ◽

The Past ◽

Precipitation Record ◽

Hydroclimatic Variability ◽

Semi Arid

Knowledge about the long-term hydroclimatic variability is essential to analyze the historic course and recent impact of climate change, especially in semi-arid and arid regions of the world. In this study, we present the first tree-ring &#948;18O chronology for the semi-arid parts of northern Iran based on juniper trees. We were able to reconstruct past hydroclimatic variability for the past 500 years. The highly significant correlation between tree-ring &#948;18O and spring precipitation indicates the primary influence of spring moisture availability on &#948;18O variations. The thereof derived precipitation reconstruction reveals short and long-term variability of precipitation intensity, duration, and frequency of dry/wet events. During the past 500 years, the driest period occurred in the 16th century, whereas the 18th century was comparably wet. A gradual decline in the reconstructed spring precipitation is evident since the beginning of the 19th century, culminating in the continuing drought of the 20th century. An analysis of dry/wet years indicated that over the last three centuries, the occurrence of years with a relatively dry spring is increasing. In contrast, more humid spring conditions are decreasing. However, the overall frequency of the occurrence of extreme events increased over the past five centuries. In addition, past hydrological disasters recorded in Persian history were well represented in our reconstruction. Correlations between our reconstructed precipitation record and large-scale circulation systems revealed no significant influence of large-scale climatic drivers on spring precipitation variations in north Iran, which therefore seem to be mostly controlled by a regional climate forcing.

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Looking for evidence of climate change impacts in the eastern Irish Sea

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-11-1641-2011 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 11 (6) ◽

pp. 1641-1656 ◽

Cited By ~ 27

Author(s):

L. S. Esteves ◽

J. J. Williams ◽

J. M. Brown

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Wind Speed ◽

Climate Models ◽

Objective Assessment ◽

Climatic Variability ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Shoreline Change ◽

Irish Sea ◽

Erosion Risk

Abstract. Although storminess is often cited as a driver of long-term coastal erosion, a lack of suitable datasets has only allowed objective assessment of this claim in a handful of case studies. This reduces our ability to understand and predict how the coastline may respond to an increase in "storminess" as suggested by global and regional climate models. With focus on 16 km of the Sefton coastline bordering the eastern Irish Sea (UK), this paper analyses available measured datasets of water level, surge level, wave height, wind speed and barometric pressure with the objective of finding trends in metocean climate that are consistent with predictions. The paper then examines rates of change in shoreline position over the period 1894 to 2005 with the aim of establishing relationships with climatic variability using a range of measured and modelled metocean parameters (with time spans varying from two to eight decades). With the exception of the mean monthly wind speed, available metocean data do not indicate any statistically significant changes outside seasonal and decadal cycles. No clear relationship was found between changes in metocean conditions and rates of shoreline change along the Sefton coast. High interannual variability and the lack of long-term measurements make unambiguous correlations between climate change and shoreline evolution problematic. However, comparison between the North Atlantic Oscillation winter index (NAOw) and coastline changes suggest increased erosion at times of decreasing NAOw values and reduced erosion at times of increasing NAOw values. Erosion tends to be more pronounced when decreasing NAOw values lead to a strong negative NAO phase. At present, anthropogenic changes in the local sediment budget and the short-term impact of extreme events are still the largest threat likely to affect coastal flooding and erosion risk in the short- and medium-term. Nevertheless, the potential impacts of climate change in the long-term should not be ignored.

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Impacts of Climate Change on Lake Fluctuations in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs11091082 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (9) ◽

pp. 1082 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Xiankun Yang ◽

Xixi Lu ◽

Edward Park ◽

Paolo Tarolli

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Regional Climate Change ◽

The Past ◽

Amu Darya ◽

Outburst Floods ◽

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods ◽

Hindu Kush ◽

Changing Patterns

Lakes in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya-Tibetan (HKHT) regions are crucial indicators for the combined impacts of regional climate change and resultant glacier retreat. However, they lack long-term systematic monitoring and thus their responses to recent climatic change still remain only partially understood. This study investigated lake extent fluctuations in the HKHT regions over the past 40 years using Landsat (MSS/TM/ETM+/OLI) images obtained from the 1970s to 2014. Influenced by different regional atmospheric circulation systems, our results show that lake changing patterns are distinct from region to region, with the most intensive lake shrinking observed in northeastern HKHT (HKHT Interior, Tarim, Yellow, Yangtze), while the most extensive expansion was observed in the western and southwestern HKHT (Amu Darya, Ganges Indus and Brahmaputra), largely caused by the proliferation of small lakes in high-altitude regions during 1970s–1995. In the past 20 years, extensive lake expansions (~39.6% in area and ~119.1% in quantity) were observed in all HKHT regions. Climate change, especially precipitation change, is the major driving force to the changing dynamics of the lake fluctuations; however, effects from the glacier melting were also significant, which contributed approximately 31.9–40.5%, 16.5–39.3%, 12.8–29.0%, and 3.3–6.1% of runoff to lakes in the headwaters of the Tarim, Amu Darya, Indus, and Ganges, respectively. We consider that the findings in this paper could have both immediate and long-term implications for dealing with water-related hazards, controlling glacial lake outburst floods, and securing water resources in the HKHT regions, which contain the headwater sources for some of the largest rivers in Asia that sustain 1.3 billion people.

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Central Asia’s Changing Climate: How Temperature and Precipitation Have Changed across Time, Space, and Altitude

Climate ◽

10.3390/cli7100123 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 7 (10) ◽

pp. 123 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Isabell Haag ◽

Philip D. Jones ◽

Cyrus Samimi

Keyword(s):

Linear Trend ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Climatic Research Unit ◽

Strong Increase ◽

Climate Data ◽

Spring Precipitation ◽

Mountain Areas ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Time Space

Changes in climate can be favorable as well as detrimental for natural and anthropogenic systems. Temperatures in Central Asia have risen significantly within the last decades whereas mean precipitation remains almost unchanged. However, climatic trends can vary greatly between different subregions, across altitudinal levels, and within seasons. Investigating in the seasonally and spatially differentiated trend characteristics amplifies the knowledge of regional climate change and fosters the understanding of potential impacts on social, ecological, and natural systems. Considering the known limitations of available climate data in this region, this study combines both high-resolution and long-term records to achieve the best possible results. Temperature and precipitation data were analyzed using Climatic Research Unit (CRU) TS 4.01 and NASA’s Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B43. To study long-term trends and low-frequency variations, we performed a linear trend analysis and compiled anomaly time series and regional grid-based trend maps. The results show a strong increase in temperature, almost uniform across the topographically complex study site, with particular maxima in winter and spring. Precipitation depicts minor positive trends, except for spring when precipitation is decreasing. Expected differences in the development of temperature and precipitation between mountain areas and plains could not be detected.

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Shallowing of the Svityaz Lake in the context of regional climate change

Journal of Geology Geography and Geoecology ◽

10.15421/112060 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 29 (4) ◽

pp. 673-683

Author(s):

Vitalina Fedoniuk ◽

Maria Khrystetska ◽

Mykola Fedoniuk ◽

Ihor Merlenko ◽

Serhiy Bondarchuk

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Correlation Coefficients ◽

Regional Climate Change ◽

Water Levels ◽

Climatic Data ◽

Ecological Stability ◽

Air Temperatures

The paper analyzes the dynamics of the main climatic indicators in order to reveal the role of regional and local factors in the current changes in the water content of the Svitiaz Lake (NW Ukraine). The current state of study of the water balance of the lake and the factors that form it are estimated. The main trends for changes in the levels and regime of surface water, groundwater and artesian water in the territory of the Shatsk National Nature Park are identified. Quantitative data characterizing long-term and modern changes in water levels in the lake are presented. Shallowing of 2019 is characterized (the lowest water level over the last 50 years, reduction of the water mirror area by 8%). Based on statistical mathematical and cartographic analysis of climatic data provided by 17 meteorological stations in the region the dynamics of average annual, monthly and seasonal precipitation, evaporation and their spatial distribution were estimated. A significant increase in evaporation during the warm period of the year over the last decades (2000-2018) has been revealed. Changes in the amount and mode of precipitation over 2 long-term periods are estimated. The peculiarities of the dynamics of the main meteorological indicators in 2019 (average monthly and average annual air temperatures, relative humidity, precipitation amounts) were separately analyzed. Values of humidity coefficients and hydrothermal coefficients were calculated. The parts of the region with the lowest values of these indicators, including the catchment area of Lake Svityaz, are outlined and visualized on the map. The significant role of evaporation growth was confirmed given the consistent increase in air temperatures over the last 20 years. Given the Svityaz station data it is also calculated the correlation coefficients of water levels in the lake with the same indicators for the period since 1970. During the period of 2000-2018, a significant increase in the dependence of water levels on the hydrothermal coefficient of Selyaninov was established, which may indicate a decrease in the ecological stability of the lake and its increasing vulnerability to climate change.

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