The intensity of natural selection in man
(1) In a paper communicated to the Royal Society in 1899, and later in greater elaboration published in ‘Biometrika,’ 1901, it has been shown on the basis of the inheritance of longevity that the selective death-rate in man amounted to at least 60 per cent. to 80 per cent. of the total death-rate. The matter has been recently reconsidered by Prof. Ploetz, who, dealing with material wholly different from that of Beeton and Pearson came to similar conclusions. The point is a very vital one, for, combined with: (i) the heredity of physical and mental characters in man, and (ii) the demonstration that the longer-lived have more offspring, we reach a definite knowledge that Darwinism does apply, and very intensely applies, even to man under civilised conditions. The difficulty of a direct investigation of the problem lies in securing uniformity of environment. W e have to demonstrate that when under the same environment there is a heavier death-rate among a given group of human beings, then among the survivors of this group in a given later period the death-rate will be lessened. Now each group of individuals we attempt to deal with has its own environment, and if that is a bad environment we should expect to find a heavy death-rate both at the earlier and later periods; this obviously must obscure the action of natural selection. For example in districts with a high infant mortality we might expect a high child mortality, say deaths from two to five years of life, because a bad environment sends up the intensity of both. The correlation between deaths in the first year of life (0—1) and in the next four years of life (1—5) for a given district will certainly be positive if no correction be made for varying environment. Quite recently this matter has been discussed by determining the correlation between the ages 0—1 and 1—5 in the administrative counties of England and Wales. As ( a ) the group 0—1 was not followed to 1—5, but the deaths in these age-groups for the same years were dealt with, and ( b ) no allowance whatever was made for the differential environment of the administrative counties, it is difficult to find any real bearing of the data on the problem of natural selection in man.