scholarly journals Historical citizen science to understand and predict climate-driven trout decline

2017 ◽  
Vol 284 (1846) ◽  
pp. 20161979 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel Clavero ◽  
Miquel Ninyerola ◽  
Virgilio Hermoso ◽  
Ana Filipa Filipe ◽  
Magda Pla ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Change ◽  
Citizen Science ◽  
Salmo Trutta ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Natural Sciences ◽  
Historical Records ◽  
The Past ◽  
Historical Presence

Historical species records offer an excellent opportunity to test the predictive ability of range forecasts under climate change, but researchers often consider that historical records are scarce and unreliable, besides the datasets collected by renowned naturalists. Here, we demonstrate the relevance of biodiversity records developed through citizen-science initiatives generated outside the natural sciences academia. We used a Spanish geographical dictionary from the mid-nineteenth century to compile over 10 000 freshwater fish records, including almost 4 000 brown trout ( Salmo trutta ) citations, and constructed a historical presence–absence dataset covering over 2 000 10 × 10 km cells, which is comparable to present-day data. There has been a clear reduction in trout range in the past 150 years, coinciding with a generalized warming. We show that current trout distribution can be accurately predicted based on historical records and past and present values of three air temperature variables. The models indicate a consistent decline of average suitability of around 25% between 1850s and 2000s, which is expected to surpass 40% by the 2050s. We stress the largely unexplored potential of historical species records from non-academic sources to open new pathways for long-term global change science.

scholarly journals Climate Change Influences Basidiome Emergence of Leaf-Cutting Ant Cultivars

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (11) ◽  
pp. 912
Author(s):  
Rodolfo Bizarria ◽  
Pepijn W. Kooij ◽  
Andre Rodrigues
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Nest Architecture ◽  
Historical Records ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Data Analyses ◽  
Symbiotic Mutualism ◽  
Leaf Cutting

Maintaining symbiosis homeostasis is essential for mutualistic partners. Leaf-cutting ants evolved a long-term symbiotic mutualism with fungal cultivars for nourishment while using vertical asexual transmission across generations. Despite the ants’ efforts to suppress fungal sexual reproduction, scattered occurrences of cultivar basidiomes have been reported. Here, we review the literature for basidiome occurrences and associated climate data. We hypothesized that more basidiome events could be expected in scenarios with an increase in temperature and precipitation. Our field observations and climate data analyses indeed suggest that Acromyrmex coronatus colonies are prone to basidiome occurrences in warmer and wetter seasons. Even though our study partly depended on historical records, occurrences have increased, correlating with climate change. A nest architecture with low (or even the lack of) insulation might be the cause of this phenomenon. The nature of basidiome occurrences in the A. coronatus–fungus mutualism can be useful to elucidate how resilient mutualistic symbioses are in light of climate change scenarios.

scholarly journals Statistics and Analysis of the Relations between Rainstorm Floods and Earthquakes

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Baodeng Hou ◽  
Yongxiang Wu ◽  
Jianhua Wang ◽  
Kai Wu ◽  
Weihua Xiao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Computational Results ◽  
Occurrence Time ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Water Vapors ◽  
Transmission Zone ◽  
Chinese Scholars

The frequent occurrence of geophysical disasters under climate change has drawn Chinese scholars to pay their attention to disaster relations. If the occurrence sequence of disasters could be identified, long-term disaster forecast could be realized. Based on the Earth Degassing Effect (EDE) which is valid, this paper took the magnitude, epicenter, and occurrence time of the earthquake, as well as the epicenter and occurrence time of the rainstorm floods as basic factors to establish an integrated model to study the correlation between rainstorm floods and earthquakes. 2461 severe earthquakes occurred in China or within 3000 km from China and the 169 heavy rainstorm floods occurred in China over the past 200+ years as the input data of the model. The computational results showed that although most of the rainstorm floods have nothing to do with the severe earthquakes from a statistical perspective, some floods might relate to earthquakes. This is especially true when the earthquakes happen in the vapor transmission zone where rainstorms lead to abundant water vapors. In this regard, earthquakes are more likely to cause big rainstorm floods. However, many cases of rainstorm floods could be found after severe earthquakes with a large extent of uncertainty.

scholarly journals ANEMI3: An updated tool for global change analysis

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. e0251489
Author(s):  
Patrick A. Breach ◽  
Slobodan P. Simonovic
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Global Change ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Dynamics Simulation ◽  
Earth System

The ANEMI model is an integrated assessment model of global change that emphasizes the role of water resources. The model is based on the principles of system dynamics simulation to analyze changes in the Earth system using feedback processes. Securing water resources for the future is a key issue of global change, and ties into global systems of population growth, climate change, carbon cycle, hydrologic cycle, economy, energy production, land use and pollution generation. Here the third iteration of the model–ANEMI3 is described, along with the methods used for parameter estimation and model testing. The main differences between ANEMI3 and previous versions include: (i) implementation of the energy-economy system based on the principles of system dynamics simulation; (ii) incorporation of water supply as an additional sector in the global economy that parallels the production of energy; (iii) inclusion of climate change effects on land yield and potentially arable land for food production, and (iv) addition of nitrogen and phosphorus based nutrient cycles as indicators of global water quality, which affect the development of surface water supplies. The model is intended for analyzing long-term global feedbacks which drive global change. Because of this, there are limitations related to the spatial scale that is used. However, the model’s simplicity can be considered a strength, as it allows for the driving feedbacks to be more easily identified. The model in its current form allows for a variety of scenarios to be created to address global issues such as climate change from an integrated perspective, or to examine the change in one model sector on Earth system behaviour. The endogenous structure of the model allows for global change to be driven entirely by model structure rather than exogenous inputs. The new additions to the ANEMI3 model are found to capture long term trends associated with global change, while allowing for the development of water supplies to be represented using an integrated approach considering global economy and surface water quality.

scholarly journals Modeling Long-Term Temporal Variation of Dew Formation in Jordan and Its Link to Climate Change

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 2186 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nahid Atashi ◽  
Dariush Rahimi ◽  
Mustafa Al Kuisi ◽  
Anwar Jiries ◽  
Henri Vuollekoski ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mediterranean Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Dust Storms ◽  
Arid Climate ◽  
Seasonal Patterns ◽  
Climate Zones ◽  
The Past ◽  
Dew Formation

In this study, we performed model simulations to investigate the spatial, seasonal, and annual dew yield during 40 years (1979–2018) at ten locations reflecting the variation of climate and environmental conditions in Jordan. In accordance with the climate zones in Jordan, the dew formation had distinguished characteristics features with respect to the yield, seasonal variation, and spatial variation. The highest water dew yield (an overall annual mean cumulative dew yield as high as 88 mm) was obtained for the Mountains Heights Plateau, which has a Mediterranean climate. The least dew yield (as low as 19 mm) was obtained in Badia, which has an arid climate. The dew yield had a decreasing trend in the past 40 years due to climate change impacts such as increased desertification and the potential of sand and dust storms in the region. In addition, increased anthropogenic air pollution slows down the conversion of vapor to liquid phase change, which also impacts the potential of dew formation. The dew yield showed three distinguished seasonal patterns reflecting the three climates in Jordan. The Mountains Heights Plateau (Mediterranean climate) has the highest potential for dew harvesting (especially during the summer) than Badia (semi-arid climate).

scholarly journals The Dynamic Change of Bosten Lake Area in Response to Climate in the Past 30 Years

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 4 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoai Dai ◽  
Xingping Yang ◽  
Meilian Wang ◽  
Yu Gao ◽  
Senhao Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Area ◽  
Water Body ◽  
Meteorological Factors ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
Bosten Lake ◽  
Water Index ◽  
The Past ◽  
Normalized Difference Water Index

The widely distributed lakes, as one of the major components of the inland water system, are the primary available freshwater resources on the earth and are sensitive to accelerated climate change and extensive human activities. Lakes play an important role in the terrestrial water cycle and biogeochemical cycle and substantially influence the health of humans living in the surrounding areas. Given the importance of lakes in the ecosystem, long-term monitoring of dynamic changes has important theoretical and practical significance. Here, we extracted water body information and monitored the long-term dynamics of Bosten Lake, which is the largest inland lake in China. We quantified the meteorological factors of the study area from the observation data of meteorological stations between 1988 and 2018. The characteristics of climate change and its correlation with the change of area in the Bosten Lake Basin in the past 30 years were analyzed. The major contributions of this study are as follows: (1) The initial water body was segmented based on the water index model Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) and Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI) with a pre-assigned threshold value. The results were evaluated with the area extracted through artificial visual interpretation. Then we conducted mathematical morphology operators, opening and closing operations, and median filter to eliminate noise to ensure the accuracy of water body information extraction from the Bosten Lake. A long-term water surface area database of the Bosten Lake was established from high-resolution remote sensing images during 1988–2018. (2) Due to the seasonal difference of snow, ice content, and other objects on images, the areadynamics of Bosten Lake in the recent 30 years were analyzed separately in dry season and rainy season. The water surface area of Bosten Lake showed large inter-annual variations between 1988–2018. (3) Based on the assumption that climatic change has more direct effects on lake than human activities, six meteorological factors were selected to analyze the impacts of climate change on the annual mean lake surface area. The result indicated that in the past 30 years, climate conditions in the Bosten Lake Basin fluctuated greatly. We conducted correlations analysis between the areal dynamics of the Bosten Lake and the meteorological factors. Here, the annual average evaporation had the highest correlation with the areal dynamics of Bosten Lake followed by air temperature, precipitation, sunshine hours, and relative humidity, while the annual average wind speed had the weakest correlation.

Field Studies: Bringing Historical Records Down to Earth

2019 ◽  
pp. 34-47
Author(s):  
Emily W. B. Russell Southgate
Keyword(s):  
Aerial Photography ◽  
Field Studies ◽  
Soil Characteristics ◽  
Historical Records ◽  
Remote Imaging ◽  
The Past ◽  
Ground Survey ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Over Time

There are many field techniques that take research beyond what can be found in written documents. Clues to the past are hidden in such subtle (and not so subtle) features as topographic modifications, soils, and tree trunks. Field studies search for evidence of conditions and for their resultant effects through a variety of techniques. Features may be evident from a ground survey, located precisely through GPS. Remote imaging, using a variety of techniques from simple aerial photography to lidar, reveal hidden patterns, that may then be studied on the ground. Archeological study relates the patterns found on the ground to human activities, as they have changed over time. Dendroecology interprets records left in tree rings. Some studies look at stands of different ages to study change over time, and long-term studies trace change in individual stands. In these field studies that look at the past, soil characteristics and materials hidden in the soil, such as DNA, stable isotopes and charcoal, can reveal details of past processes and species. These methods are illustrated with examples from a wide range of biomes.

scholarly journals Unprecedented occurrence of snow disasters over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau since 1980

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 574-581
Author(s):  
Qi Liu ◽  
◽  
Le He ◽  
Jing Zeng ◽  
Yetang Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Animal Husbandry ◽  
Historical Records ◽  
The Past ◽  
Long Term Changes

<abstract> <p>Continuous snowfall caused natural disasters, called snow disasters here, frequently occur on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau of China in recent decades, and cause a large number of losses of animal husbandry and human property. However, their long-term changes are poorly known. Here we use historical records to place recent variations of snow disasters under the background of the past 200 years. There are 366 snow disasters events for the 1820–2009 period, of which 230 happen during 1980–2009. In particular, the count of each decadal events since 1980 is larger than any other time during the past two centuries.</p> </abstract>

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