scholarly journals A demographic approach to study effects of climate change in desert plants

2012 ◽  
Vol 367 (1606) ◽  
pp. 3100-3114 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberto Salguero-Gómez ◽  
Wolfgang Siewert ◽  
Brenda B. Casper ◽  
Katja Tielbörger
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Life History Strategies ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Desert Plant ◽  
Desert Plants ◽  
Population Growth Rates ◽  
Growing Seasons ◽  
Mechanistic Approach ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Variable Precipitation

Desert species respond strongly to infrequent, intense pulses of precipitation. Consequently, indigenous flora has developed a rich repertoire of life-history strategies to deal with fluctuations in resource availability. Examinations of how future climate change will affect the biota often forecast negative impacts, but these—usually correlative—approaches overlook precipitation variation because they are based on averages . Here, we provide an overview of how variable precipitation affects perennial and annual desert plants, and then implement an innovative, mechanistic approach to examine the effects of precipitation on populations of two desert plant species. This approach couples robust climatic projections, including variable precipitation, with stochastic, stage-structured models constructed from long-term demographic datasets of the short-lived Cryptantha flava in the Colorado Plateau Desert (USA) and the annual Carrichtera annua in the Negev Desert (Israel). Our results highlight these populations' potential to buffer future stochastic precipitation. Population growth rates in both species increased under future conditions: wetter, longer growing seasons for Cryptantha and drier years for Carrichtera . We determined that such changes are primarily due to survival and size changes for Cryptantha and the role of seed bank for Carrichtera . Our work suggests that desert plants, and thus the resources they provide, might be more resilient to climate change than previously thought.

scholarly journals Can land degradation drive differences in the C exchange of two similar semiarid ecosystems?

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana López-Ballesteros ◽  
Cecilio Oyonarte ◽  
Andrew S. Kowalski ◽  
Penélope Serrano-Ortiz ◽  
Enrique P. Sánchez-Cañete ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vadose Zone ◽  
Land Degradation ◽  
C Sequestration ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Striking Difference ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Semiarid Ecosystems ◽  
Growing Seasons ◽  
Soil Variables ◽  
Variable Precipitation

Abstract. The concept of land degradation stems from the loss of an ecosystem's biological productivity, which in turn relies on several degradation processes, such as long-term loss of natural vegetation, depletion of soil nutrients, soil compaction or water and wind erosion, to which drylands are especially vulnerable. Currently, drylands occupy more than one third of the global terrestrial surface and will probably expand under future climate change scenarios. Drylands' key role in the global C balance has been recently demonstrated, but the effects of land degradation on C sequestration by these ecosystems needs further research. In the present study, we compare net carbon exchange, together with satellite data and meteorological, ambient and vadose zone (CO2, water content and temperature) variables, between two nearby (~23 km) experimental sites representing natural (i.e. site of reference) and degraded grazed semiarid grasslands located in SE Spain, via eddy covariance measurements over 6 years, with highly variable precipitation magnitude and distribution. Results show a striking difference in the annual C balances with an average release of 196 ± 40 and −23 ± 20 g C m−2 yr−1 for the degraded and natural sites, respectively. At the seasonal scale, differing patterns in net CO2 fluxes were detected over both growing and dry seasons. As expected, during the growing seasons, greater net C uptake over longer periods was observed in the natural site, however, much greater net C release was measured in the degraded site during drought periods. We tested differences in all monitored meteorological and soil variables and found it most relevant that CO2 at 1.50 m belowground was around 1000 ppm higher in the degraded site. Thus, we believe that subterranean ventilation of this vadose zone CO2, previously observed at both sites, largely drives the differences in C dynamics between them, especially during the dry season maybe due to enhanced subsoil-atmosphere interconnectivity in the degraded site. Overall, the 12 site-years of data allow direct exploration of the roles of climate and land degradation in the biological and non-biological processes that ultimately control the C sequestration capacity of semiarid ecosystems.

scholarly journals Vulnerability of Water Resources to Climate Change: Adaptation and Resilience Strategies for Sustainable Development in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Industrial Sectors ◽  
Run Off ◽  
Increasing Demand ◽  
Negative Impacts

Nigeria faces inexorable climate change in recent times. This phenomenon will have a profound effect on the long-term sustainable socio-economic development and is also likely to jeopardize achievement of economic development of the country. All economic and social sectors will be adversely affected. The water resources sector is one that will be strongly impacted by climate change. Against a background of increasing demand for potable water, sea-level rise may lead to flooding of lowlands and seawater intrusion into coastal aquifers, while variability in climate may see more intense rainstorms resulting both in increased run-off leading to increased flooding and reduced recharge leading to aquifer depletion. Such impacts are already having negative ripple effects on other vital aspects of the economy such as the tourism, recreational, agricultural and industrial sectors. Unfortunately, adequate management of water resources in Nigeria is sorely lacking. Extensive studies to quantify the likely impacts of future climate change and climate variability on water resources in Nigeria are not available. In many cases, baseline data which may be used to track changes are sparse or non-existent. The impacts of climate change and economic value of water resources will form the basis for the development of adaptation strategies with regards to the sustainable management of regional and national water resources. This paper therefore explores the probable effect climate change will have on water resources in Nigeria, the fall-out from these effects and strategies for mitigating potential negative impacts for sustainable development.

scholarly journals Simulation of Carbon Exchange from a Permafrost Peatland in the Great Hing’an Mountains Based on CoupModel

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 44
Author(s):  
Yue Li ◽  
Zhongmei Wan ◽  
Li Sun
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Sink ◽  
Ecosystem Respiration ◽  
Gross Primary Production ◽  
Net Ecosystem Exchange ◽  
Carbon Accumulation ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Growing Seasons ◽  
Source Sink

Climate change is accelerating its impact on northern ecosystems. Northern peatlands store a considerable amount of C, but their response to climate change remains highly uncertain. In order to explore the feedback of a peatland in the Great Hing’an Mountains to future climate change, we simulated the response of the overall net ecosystem exchange (NEE), ecosystem respiration (ER), and gross primary production (GPP) during 2020–2100 under three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). Under the RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 scenarios, the carbon sink will increase slightly until 2100. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the carbon sink will follow a trend of gradual decrease after 2053. These results show that when meteorological factors, especially temperature, reach a certain degree, the carbon source/sink of the peatland ecosystem will be converted. In general, although the peatland will remain a carbon sink until the end of the 21st century, carbon sinks will decrease under the influence of climate change. Our results indicate that in the case of future climate warming, with the growing seasons experiencing overall dryer and warmer environments and changes in vegetation communities, peatland NEE, ER, and GPP will increase and lead to the increase in ecosystem carbon accumulation.

scholarly journals Bryophytes are predicted to lag behind future climate change despite their high dispersal capacities

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Zanatta ◽  
R. Engler ◽  
F. Collart ◽  
O. Broennimann ◽  
R. G. Mateo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Species Dispersal ◽  
High Dispersal ◽  
Mechanistic Approach ◽  
Distribution Ranges ◽  
Suitable Climate ◽  
Suitable Habitats

Abstract The extent to which species can balance out the loss of suitable habitats due to climate warming by shifting their ranges is an area of controversy. Here, we assess whether highly efficient wind-dispersed organisms like bryophytes can keep-up with projected shifts in their areas of suitable climate. Using a hybrid statistical-mechanistic approach accounting for spatial and temporal variations in both climatic and wind conditions, we simulate future migrations across Europe for 40 bryophyte species until 2050. The median ratios between predicted range loss vs expansion by 2050 across species and climate change scenarios range from 1.6 to 3.3 when only shifts in climatic suitability were considered, but increase to 34.7–96.8 when species dispersal abilities are added to our models. This highlights the importance of accounting for dispersal restrictions when projecting future distribution ranges and suggests that even highly dispersive organisms like bryophytes are not equipped to fully track the rates of ongoing climate change in the course of the next decades.

scholarly journals Planning maize hybrids adaptation to future climate change by integrating crop modelling with machine learning

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liangliang Zhang ◽  
Zhao Zhang ◽  
Fulu Tao ◽  
Yuchuan Luo ◽  
Juan Cao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Grain Filling ◽  
Growth Cycle ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Crop Modelling ◽  
Maize Productivity ◽  
Accelerate Development ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Hybrid Adaptation

Abstract Crop hybrid improvement is an efficient and environmental-friendly option to adapt to climate change and increase grain production. However, the adaptability of existing hybrids to a changing climate has not been systematically investigated. Therefore, little is known about the appropriate timing of hybrid adaptation. Here, using a novel hybrid model which coupled CERES-Maize with machine learning, we critically investigated the impacts of climate change on maize productivity with an ensemble of hybrid-specific estimations in China. We determined when and where current hybrids would become unviable and hybrid adaptation need be implemented, as well as which hybrid traits would be desirable. Climate change would have mostly negative impacts on maize productivity, and the magnitudes of yield reductions would highly depend on the growth cycle of the hybrids. Hybrid replacement could partially, but not completely, offset the yield loss caused by projected climate change. Without adaptation, approximately 53% of the cultivation areas would require hybrid renewal before 2050 under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. The medium-maturing hybrids with a long grain-filling duration and a high light use efficiency would be promising, although the ideotypic traits could be different for a specific environment. The findings highlight the necessity and urgency of breeding climate resilient hybrids, providing policy-makers and crop breeders with the early signals of when, where and what hybrids will be required, which stimulate proactive investment to facilitate breeding. The proposed crop modelling approach is scalable, largely data-driven and can be used to tackle the longstanding problem of predicting hybrids’ future performance to accelerate development of new crop hybrids.

Reassessing Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture in China

2015 ◽  
Vol 03 (02) ◽  
pp. 1550011
Author(s):  
Jie LIU ◽  
Changyi LIU ◽  
Yan WEN
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Adaptation Effect ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Bias Estimation ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Negative Impacts

Nonlinearity and adaptation effect are rarely taken into consideration in the existing literature of empirical studies on climate change impacts, which may lead to bias estimation of the impacts on agricultural production. This paper aims to reassess the impacts on crop yields (rice, wheat, and maize) by incorporating the terms of nonlinearity and adaptation into a provincial panel data model and further study the impacts of future climate change under the represented concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios. Results reveal that the historical warming temperature benefits rice but harm wheat and maize productions, and decreasing precipitation benefits rice and maize but harm wheat production. Adaptation can significantly mitigate the negative impacts. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.0, after adaptation, the yield changes attributed to future climate change vary from 0.66% to 0.98% for rice, -0.65% to -0.84% for wheat, and -0.24 to 0.08% for maize. The shifts of means of climatic variables impose no challenge on national food security of China.

scholarly journals Identifying Who Engages in Sustainable Adaptation in Large-Scale Commodity Agriculture

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robyn S. Wilson ◽  
Hugh Walpole
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Soil Health ◽  
The United States ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Quality Practices ◽  
Common Strategy ◽  
Negative Impacts

Abstract Global climate change is projected to negatively impact agriculture through increasingly severe weather. In the eastern Corn Belt of the United States, it is projected to get warmer and wetter overall, with more variability in the seasonal timing of rainfall. This will make it more difficult to get into the fields in the spring and fall due to wet conditions, while higher overall temperatures and decreased rainfall in the summer may limit crop growth. While there are multiple adaptations to reduce the vulnerability of agricultural production to a changing climate, these adaptations have varying implications for soil health, carbon sequestration and water quality. We explore the drivers of adaptations that vary in their provisioning of a variety of ecosystem services. We find that adaptation is driven in large part by self-reported past negative experiences with climate change that drive up concern about future climate change. Adaptation is also more likely among farmers that are younger, more educated, and more conservation minded, and who operate farms that are larger, more extensively insured, and will be passed on to a family member. However, increasing tile drainage will be the most common strategy in response to increased and more variable rainfall, indicating potential negative impacts for water quality. Practices that promote soil health and sequestration will be less common, and more driven by the identity of farmers as conservationists than by the weather. There will be a need to offset the potential negative impacts of increasing drainage through the promotion of edge-of-field filtration practices.

What we can learn from the parallels between the COVID-19 and the future climate change crises

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rubén D. Manzanedo ◽  
Peter Manning
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Substantial Portion ◽  
Preventative Measures ◽  
The Future ◽  
Behavioral Norm ◽  
Climate Crisis ◽  
Global Population

The ongoing COVID-19 outbreak pandemic is now a global crisis. It has caused 1.6+ million confirmed cases and 100 000+ deaths at the time of writing and triggered unprecedented preventative measures that have put a substantial portion of the global population under confinement, imposed isolation, and established ‘social distancing’ as a new global behavioral norm. The COVID-19 crisis has affected all aspects of everyday life and work, while also threatening the health of the global economy. This crisis offers also an unprecedented view of what the global climate crisis may look like. In fact, some of the parallels between the COVID-19 crisis and what we expect from the looming global climate emergency are remarkable. Reflecting upon the most challenging aspects of today’s crisis and how they compare with those expected from the climate change emergency may help us better prepare for the future.

Responses of Irish Vegetation to Future Climate Change

2006 ◽  
Vol 106 (3) ◽  
pp. 323-334 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael B. Jones ◽  
Alison Donnelly ◽  
Fabrizio Albanito
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change
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