scholarly journals Multiple drivers of the COVID-19 spread: role of climate, international mobility, and region-specific conditions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yasuhiro Kubota ◽  
Takayuki Shiono ◽  
Buntarou Kusumoto ◽  
Junichi Fujinuma
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Host Susceptibility ◽  
Transmission Risk ◽  
International Mobility ◽  
Simple Regression Model ◽  
Host Mobility ◽  
Specific Susceptibility

AbstractThe novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread quickly across the globe. Here, we evaluated the role of climate (temperature and precipitation), region-specific susceptibility (BCG vaccination, malaria infection, and elderly population) and international traveller population (human mobility) in shaping the geographical patterns of COVID-19 cases across 1,055 countries/regions, and examined the sequential shift of multiple drivers of the accumulated cases from December, 2019 to April 12, 2020. The accumulated numbers of COVID-19 cases (per 1 million population) were well explained by a simple regression model. The explanatory power (R2) of the model increased up to > 70% in April 2020 as the COVID-19 spread progressed. Climate, host mobility, and host susceptibility largely explained the variance of the COVID-19 cases (per 1 million population), and their explanatory power improved as the pandemic progressed; the relative importance of host mobility and host susceptibility have been greater than that of climate. The number of days from outbreak onset showed greater explanatory power in the earlier stages of COVID-19 spread but rapidly lost its influence. Our findings demonstrate that the COVID-19 pandemic is deterministically driven by climate suitability, cross-border human mobility, and region-specific susceptibility. The present distribution of COVID-19 cases has not reached an equilibrium and is changing daily, especially in the Southern Hemisphere. Nevertheless, the present results, based on mapping the spread of COVID-19 and identifying multiple drivers of this outbreak trajectory, may contribute to a better understanding of the COVID-19 disease transmission risk and the measures against long-term epidemic.

scholarly journals An empirical test of the role of small-scale transmission in large-scale disease dynamics

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph R. Mihaljevic ◽  
Carlos M. Polivka ◽  
Constance J. Mehmel ◽  
Chentong Li ◽  
Vanja Dukic ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
Disease Model ◽  
Individual Variability ◽  
Host Susceptibility ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Unconstrained Model

AbstractA key assumption of models of infectious disease is that population-scale spread is driven by transmission between host individuals at small scales. This assumption, however, is rarely tested, likely because observing disease transmission between host individuals is non-trivial in many infectious diseases. Quantifying the transmission of insect baculoviruses at a small scale is in contrast straightforward. We fit a disease model to data from baculovirus epizootics (= epidemics in animals) at the scale of whole forests, while using prior parameter distributions constructed from branch-scale experiments. Our experimentally-constrained model fits the large-scale data very well, supporting the role of small-scale transmission mechanisms in baculovirus epizootics. We further compared our experimentally-based model to an unconstrained model that ignores our experimental data, serving as a proxy for models that include large-scale mechanisms. This analysis supports our hypothesis that small-scale mechanisms are important, especially individual variability in host susceptibility to the virus. Comparison of transmission rates in the two models, however, suggests that large-scale mechanisms increase transmission compared to our experimental estimates. Our study shows that small-scale and large-scale mechanisms drive forest-wide epizootics of baculoviruses, and that synthesizing mathematical models with data collected across scales is key to understanding the spread of infectious disease.

scholarly journals Exploring the utility of Google(R) Mobility data during COVID-19 pandemic: A digital epidemiological analysis from India (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kamal Kishore ◽  
Vidushi Jaswal ◽  
Madhur Verma ◽  
Vipin Kaushal
Keyword(s):  
Disease Severity ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
National Level ◽  
Residential Areas ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Application Programming ◽  
Programming Software ◽  
Relative Change

BACKGROUND Association between human mobility and disease transmission for COVID-19 is established, but quantifying the levels of mobility over large geographical areas is difficult. Google released Community Mobility Report (CMR) data collated from mobile devices and gives an idea about the movement of people. OBJECTIVE Therefore, we attempt to explore the use of CMR to assess the role of mobility in spreading COVID-19 infection in India. METHODS An Ecological study analyzed CMR for human mobility. The data were compared for before, during, and after lockdown phases with the reference periods. Another dataset depicting the burden of COVID-19 after deriving various disease severity indicators was derived from a crowd-sourced Application Programming software. The relationship between the two datasets was investigated using Kendall’s tau correlation to depict the correlation between mobility and disease severity. RESULTS At the national level, mobility decreased everywhere except residential areas during the lockdown period, compared to the reference period. Mizoram (minimum cases) depicted a higher relative change in mobility than Maharashtra (maximum cases). Residential mobility negatively correlated with all other measures of mobility. The magnitude of correlations for intra-mobility indicators was comparatively low for the lockdown phase compared to other phases. A high correlation coefficient between epidemiological and mobility indicators is observed for the lockdown and unlock phases compared to the pre-lockdown. CONCLUSIONS We can use mobile-based open-source mobility data to provide the temporal anatomy of social distancing. CMR data depicted an association between mobility and disease severity, and we suggest that this technique supplement future COVID-19 surveillance. CLINICALTRIAL NA

Science and Dialectics in the Philosophies of Deleuze, Bachelard and DeLanda

Paragraph ◽  
2006 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 98-114 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Williams
Keyword(s):  
Gilles Deleuze ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Scientific Theories ◽  
Gaston Bachelard ◽  
Contemporary Science

This article charts differences between Gilles Deleuze's and Gaston Bachelard's philosophies of science in order to reflect on different readings of the role of science in Deleuze's philosophy, in particular in relation to Manuel DeLanda's interpretation of Deleuze's work. The questions considered are: Why do Gilles Deleuze and Gaston Bachelard develop radically different philosophical dialectics in relation to science? What is the significance of this difference for current approaches to Deleuze and science, most notably as developed by Manuel DeLanda? It is argued that, despite its great explanatory power, DeLanda's association of Deleuze with a particular set of contemporary scientific theories does not allow for the ontological openness and for the metaphysical sources of Deleuze's work. The argument turns on whether terms such as ‘intensity’ can be given predominantly scientific definitions or whether metaphysical definitions are more consistent with a sceptical relation of philosophy to contemporary science.

Language Ideology and Second Language Learning

2008 ◽  
Vol 155 ◽  
pp. 95-115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Theresa McGarry
Keyword(s):  
Second Language ◽  
Second Language Acquisition ◽  
Language Acquisition ◽  
Language Learning ◽  
Language Ideology ◽  
Second Language Learning ◽  
Classroom Practices ◽  
Explanatory Power

AbstractThe increasing recognition of the concept language ideology and the corresponding increasing use of the term have not yet been matched by applications in the field of second language acquisition. However, applications of the concept in analysis of actual classroom practices have shown it to have considerable explanatory power. Greater consideration of language ideology in SLA is necessary not only to achieve greater understanding of the role of ideology in various areas but also to show connections between these areas that may yield important generalizations and to impel the application of the concept in areas where it has been neglected by highlighting its uneven treatment.

scholarly journals Livestock movement informs the risk of disease spread in traditional production systems in East Africa

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Divine Ekwem ◽  
Thomas A. Morrison ◽  
Richard Reeve ◽  
Jessica Enright ◽  
Joram Buza ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Production Systems ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Herd Size ◽  
Transmission Risk ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Transmission Distance ◽  
Risk Of Disease

AbstractIn Africa, livestock are important to local and national economies, but their productivity is constrained by infectious diseases. Comprehensive information on livestock movements and contacts is required to devise appropriate disease control strategies; yet, understanding contact risk in systems where herds mix extensively, and where different pathogens can be transmitted at different spatial and temporal scales, remains a major challenge. We deployed Global Positioning System collars on cattle in 52 herds in a traditional agropastoral system in western Serengeti, Tanzania, to understand fine-scale movements and between-herd contacts, and to identify locations of greatest interaction between herds. We examined contact across spatiotemporal scales relevant to different disease transmission scenarios. Daily cattle movements increased with herd size and rainfall. Generally, contact between herds was greatest away from households, during periods with low rainfall and in locations close to dipping points. We demonstrate how movements and contacts affect the risk of disease spread. For example, transmission risk is relatively sensitive to the survival time of different pathogens in the environment, and less sensitive to transmission distance, at least over the range of the spatiotemporal definitions of contacts that we explored. We identify times and locations of greatest disease transmission potential and that could be targeted through tailored control strategies.

scholarly journals Importation of Ticks on Companion Animals and the Risk of Spread of Tick-Borne Diseases to Non-Endemic Regions in Europe

Animals ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 6
Author(s):  
Alicja Buczek ◽  
Weronika Buczek
Keyword(s):  
Tick Species ◽  
Potential Role ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Companion Animals ◽  
Rhipicephalus Sanguineus ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
Risk Of Exposure ◽  
Geographic Regions

Increased human mobility elevates the risk of exposure of companion animals travelling with their owners or imported from other regions to tick attacks. In this study, we highlight the potential role of dogs and cats taken for tourist trips or imported animals in the spread of ticks and tick-borne pathogens. The Rhipicephalus sanguineus tick, which is a vector of numerous pathogens causing diseases in animals and humans, is imported most frequently from endemic areas to many European countries. Additionally, alien tick species with high epizootic and epidemiological importance can be imported on dogs from other continents. Companion animals play an even greater role in the spread of autochthonous tick species and transmission of tick pathogens to other animals and humans. Although the veterinary and medical effects of the parasitism of ticks carried by companion animals travelling with owners or imported animals are poorly assessed, these animals seem to play a role in the rapid spread of tick-borne diseases. Development of strategies for protection of the health of companion animals in different geographic regions should take into account the potential emergence of unknown animal tick-borne diseases that can be transmitted by imported ticks.

scholarly journals Obesity-Induced Dysbiosis Exacerbates IFN-γ Production and Pulmonary Inflammation in the Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection

Cells ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 1732
Author(s):  
Sandra Patricia Palma Albornoz ◽  
Thais Fernanda de Campos Fraga-Silva ◽  
Ana Flávia Gembre ◽  
Rômulo Silva de Oliveira ◽  
Fernanda Mesquita de Souza ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mycobacterium Tuberculosis ◽  
Gut Microbiota ◽  
Inflammatory Diseases ◽  
Pulmonary Inflammation ◽  
Host Susceptibility ◽  
Chronic Infections ◽  
Mycobacterium Tuberculosis Infection ◽  
Pulmonary Damage ◽  
Ifn Γ

The microbiota of the gut–lung axis affects local and far-reaching immune responses and might also trigger chronic and inflammatory diseases. We hypothesized that gut dysbiosis induced by obesity, which coexists in countries with a high tuberculosis burden, aggravates the host susceptibility and the pulmonary damage tolerance. To assess our hypothesis, we used a model of high-fat diet (HFD)-induced obesity, followed by infection of C57BL/6 mice with Mycobacterium tuberculosis. We showed that obesity increased the susceptibility, the pulmonary inflammation and IFN-γ levels in M. tuberculosis-infected mice. During the comorbidity obesity and tuberculosis, there is an increase of Bacteroidetes and Firmicutes in the lungs, and an increase of Firmicutes and butyrate in the feces. Depletion of gut microbiota by antibiotic treatment in the obese infected mice reduced the frequencies of CD4+IFN-γ+IL-17− cells and IFN-γ levels in the lungs, associated with an increase of Lactobacillus. Our findings reinforce the role of the gut–lung axis in chronic infections and suggest that the gut microbiota modulation may be a potential host-directed therapy as an adjuvant to treat TB in the context of IFN-γ-mediated immunopathology.

scholarly journals A meta-analysis of the literature on climate change and migration

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-52
Author(s):  
Michel Beine ◽  
Lionel Jeusette
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Displacement Effect ◽  
Methodological Choices ◽  
Econometric Methods ◽  
And Migration

Abstract Recent surveys of the literature on climate change and migration emphasize the important diversity of outcomes and approaches of the empirical studies. In this paper, we conduct a meta-analysis in order to investigate the role of the methodological choices of these empirical studies in finding some particular results concerning the role of climatic factors as drivers of human mobility. We code 51 papers representative of the literature in terms of methodological approaches. This results in the coding of more than 85 variables capturing the methodology of the main dimensions of the analysis at the regression level. These dimensions include authors' reputation, type of mobility, measures of mobility, type of data, context of the study, econometric methods, and last but not least measures of the climatic factors. We look at the influence of these characteristics on the probability of finding any effect of climate change, a displacement effect, an increase in immobility, and evidence in favor of a direct vs. an indirect effect. Our results highlight the role of some important methodological choices, such as the frequency of the data on mobility, the level of development, the measures of human mobility and of the climatic factors as well as the econometric methodology.

scholarly journals Towards Sustainable Mobility? The Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Romanian Mobile Citizens in Spain

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 4023
Author(s):  
Silvia Marcu
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development Goals ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Sustainable Mobility ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
New Models ◽  
Challenges And Opportunities ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
Depth Interviews

Using the case study of Romanians in Spain, this article highlights how the COVID-19 crisis presents both challenges and opportunities when it comes to human mobility and sustainability. Drawing on in-depth interviews with mobile people during the period of lockdown and circulation restrictions, and in accordance with the objectives of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the paper advances and contributes to the relevance of sustainability and its impact on people’s mobility in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. I argue that even in the midst of the crisis, sustainable ways may be found to promote and protect human mobility. The paper raises the way sustainability acts as a driver, gains relevance and influence, and contributes to the creation of new models of resilient mobility in times of crisis. The conclusions defend the respect for the SDGs regarding human mobility and emphasise the role of people on the move as sustainable actors learning to overcome distance and the barriers to their mobility during the pandemic.

scholarly journals How does globalization affect COVID-19 responses?

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Steve J. Bickley ◽  
Ho Fai Chan ◽  
Ahmed Skali ◽  
David Stadelmann ◽  
Benno Torgler
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
State Capacity ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Government Effectiveness ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
High Government

Abstract Background The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the vast differences in approaches to the control and containment of coronavirus across the world and has demonstrated the varied success of such approaches in minimizing the transmission of coronavirus. While previous studies have demonstrated high predictive power of incorporating air travel data and governmental policy responses in global disease transmission modelling, factors influencing the decision to implement travel and border restriction policies have attracted relatively less attention. This paper examines the role of globalization on the pace of adoption of international travel-related non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the coronavirus pandemic. This study aims to offer advice on how to improve the global planning, preparation, and coordination of actions and policy responses during future infectious disease outbreaks with empirical evidence. Methods and data We analyzed data on international travel restrictions in response to COVID-19 of 185 countries from January to October 2020. We applied time-to-event analysis to examine the relationship between globalization and the timing of travel restrictions implementation. Results The results of our survival analysis suggest that, in general, more globalized countries, accounting for the country-specific timing of the virus outbreak and other factors, are more likely to adopt international travel restrictions policies. However, countries with high government effectiveness and globalization were more cautious in implementing travel restrictions, particularly if through formal political and trade policy integration. This finding is supported by a placebo analysis of domestic NPIs, where such a relationship is absent. Additionally, we find that globalized countries with high state capacity are more likely to have higher numbers of confirmed cases by the time a first restriction policy measure was taken. Conclusions The findings highlight the dynamic relationship between globalization and protectionism when governments respond to significant global events such as a public health crisis. We suggest that the observed caution of policy implementation by countries with high government efficiency and globalization is a by-product of commitment to existing trade agreements, a greater desire to ‘learn from others’ and also perhaps of ‘confidence’ in a government’s ability to deal with a pandemic through its health system and state capacity. Our results suggest further research is warranted to explore whether global infectious disease forecasting could be improved by including the globalization index and in particular, the de jure economic and political, and de facto social dimensions of globalization, while accounting for the mediating role of government effectiveness. By acting as proxies for a countries’ likelihood and speed of implementation for international travel restriction policies, such measures may predict the likely time delays in disease emergence and transmission across national borders.

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