scholarly journals Modeling COVID-19 Growing Trends to Reveal the Differences in the Effectiveness of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions among Countries in the World

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
You Chen ◽  
Yubo Feng ◽  
Chao Yan ◽  
Xinmeng Zhang ◽  
Cheng Gao
Keyword(s):  
Secondary Analysis ◽  
Reproduction Rate ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
Growth Data ◽  
Dynamic Changes ◽  
Fourth Level ◽  
The World ◽  
America South ◽  
Four Levels

ABSTRACTObjectiveWe hypothesize that COVID-19 case growth data reveals the efficacy of NPIs. In this study, we conduct a secondary analysis of COVID-19 case growth data to compare the differences in the effectiveness of NPIs among 16 representative countries in the world.MethodsThis study leverages publicly available data to learn patterns of dynamic changes in the reproduction rate for sixteen countries covering Asia, Europe, North America, South America, Australia, and Africa. Furthermore, we model the relationships between the cumulative number of cases and the dynamic reproduction rate to characterize the effectiveness of the NPIs. We learn four levels of NPIs according to their effects in the control of COVID-19 growth and categorize the 16 countries into the corresponding groups.ResultsThe dynamic changes of the reproduction rate are learned via linear regression models for all of the studied countries, with the average adjusted R-squared at 0.96 and the 95% confidence interval as [0.94 0.98]. China, South Korea, Argentina, and Australia are at the first level of NPIs, which are the most effective. Japan and Egypt are at the second level of NPIs, and Italy, Germany, France, Netherlands, and Spain, are at the third level. The US and UK have the most inefficient NPIs, and they are at the fourth level of NPIs.ConclusionsCOVID-19 case growth data provides evidence to demonstrate the effectiveness of the NPIs. Understanding the differences in the efficacy of the NPIs among countries in the world can give guidance for emergent public health events.

Modeling COVID-19 Growing Trends to Reveal the Differences in the Effectiveness of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions among Countries in the World (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
You Chen ◽  
Yubo Feng ◽  
Chao Yan ◽  
Xinmeng Zhang ◽  
Cheng Gao
Keyword(s):  
Secondary Analysis ◽  
Reproduction Rate ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
Growth Data ◽  
Dynamic Changes ◽  
The World ◽  
Four Levels ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

BACKGROUND Adopting non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) can affect COVID-19 growing trends, decrease the number of infected cases, and thus reduce mortality and healthcare demand. Almost all countries in the world have adopted non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control the spread rate of COVID-19; however, it is unclear what are differences in the effectiveness of NPIs among these countries. OBJECTIVE We hypothesize that COVID-19 case growth data reveals the efficacy of NPIs. In this study, we conduct a secondary analysis of COVID-19 case growth data to compare the differences in the effectiveness of NPIs among 16 representative countries in the world. METHODS This study leverages publicly available data to learn patterns of dynamic changes in the reproduction rate for sixteen countries covering Asia, Europe, North America, South America, Australia, and Africa. Furthermore, we model the relationships between the cumulative number of cases and the dynamic reproduction rate to characterize the effectiveness of the NPIs. We learn four levels of NPIs according to their effects in the control of COVID-19 growth and categorize the 16 countries into the corresponding groups. RESULTS The dynamic changes of the reproduction rate are learned via linear regression models for all of the studied countries, with the average adjusted R-squared at 0.96 and the 95% confidence interval as [0.94 0.98]. China, South Korea, Argentina, and Australia are at the first level of NPIs, which are the most effective. Japan and Egypt are at the second level of NPIs, and Italy, Germany, France, Netherlands, and Spain, are at the third level. The US and UK have the most inefficient NPIs, and they are at the fourth level of NPIs. CONCLUSIONS COVID-19 case growth data provides evidence to demonstrate the effectiveness of the NPIs. Understanding the differences in the efficacy of the NPIs among countries in the world can give guidance for emergent public health events. CLINICALTRIAL NA

scholarly journals 757. Association between cumulative febrile, respiratory and diarrheal illness in the first year of life and neurodevelopmental and growth outcomes among a cohort of children in rural Guatemala

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S425-S426
Author(s):  
Daniel Olson ◽  
Molly Lamb ◽  
Amy Connery ◽  
Desiree Bauer ◽  
Alejandra Paniagua-Avila ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Maternal Education ◽  
Febrile Illness ◽  
Early Learning ◽  
First Year ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
Surveillance Period ◽  
Final Study ◽  
First Year Of Life ◽  
Height For Age

Abstract Background Recurrent infections are associated with neurodevelopmental (ND) delay in infants, but the primary drivers are poorly understood. Leveraging an infant cohort from rural Guatemala designed to evaluate the effects of post-natal Zika virus on ND (DMID 16-0057), we evaluated the association between cumulative illness and ND delay and stunting. Methods Infants enrolled at 0-3 months of age underwent weekly at-home surveillance for caregiver-reported syndromic illness, including cough, fever and vomiting/diarrhea for a 12-month period. Anthropometric assessments and ND testing by Guatemalan psychologists using the Mullen Scales of Early Learning (MSEL) were perforrmed at 12-15 months of age. Multivariable generalized linear regression models were used to test associations between syndromic illness in infancy, 12-15-month MSEL Early Learning Composite (ELC) Score, and stunting (height-for-age < -2 SD) at 12-15 months. Results The cohort (n=425) had a mean enrollment age of 1.3 months; 202 (48%) were female, 387 (91%) self-reported a literate mother, and 301 (71%) were breastfeeding at study completion. Infants had reported illness for a median of 16 weeks during the surveillance period; cough was reported most frequently (median=11 weeks, range=0-37 weeks). Lower maternal education (p=0.007) and literacy (p=0.002) as well as infant age (p=0.007) and male gender (p=0.004) were associated with MSEL ELC Score <85 (-1 SD). After adjusting for gender, breastfeeding, age, and maternal literacy, the cumulative number of weeks with reported cough (p=0.0009), fever (p=0.0001), or any syndromic illness (p=0.0007) were associated with decreased 12-month MSEL ECL Score; there was no association with diarrhea/vomiting (p=0.36). There was no association between caregiver-reported syndromic illnesses (any type) and stunting at final study visit. Conclusion In a cohort of Guatemalan infants, cumulative fever and cough episodes were significantly associated with lower MSEL ELC Score, whereas there was no association with diarrhea/vomiting. In this low-resource community, these findings highlight the potential negative ND consequences of febrile illness and persistent cough in the first year of life. NIAID Contract HHSN272201300015I Task Order HHSN27200013 (Co-PIs: FMM and EJA). Disclosures Molly Lamb, PhD, BioFire (Grant/Research Support) Evan J. Anderson, MD, Sanofi Pasteur (Scientific Research Study Investigator)

Atriplex retusa, the correct name for A. deserticola (Chenopodiaceae; Amaranthaceae sensu APG)

Phytotaxa ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 373 (1) ◽  
pp. 95
Author(s):  
TIM BÖHNERT ◽  
FEDERICO LUEBERT ◽  
MAXIMILIAN WEIGEND
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
South America ◽  
Saline Soils ◽  
Centre Of Diversity ◽  
The World ◽  
Dry Conditions ◽  
America South

The genus Atriplex Linnaeus (1753: 1052) (Chenopodiaceae Vent.; placed in Amaranthaceae Juss. s. l. in APG IV 2016) comprises about 300 species distributed mainly in subtropical, temperate, and subarctic regions of the world and is mostly adapted to dry conditions on often saline soils (Sukhorukov & Danin 2009, Kadereit et al. 2010, Iamonico 2013, APG IV 2016). The genus is highly diverse in Eurasia, Australia and North America. South America is another centre of diversity with ca. 55 species, 45 of which are considered as native (Brignone et al. 2016). A recent and exhaustive taxonomical synopsis of Atriplex for South America was published by Brignone et al. (2016), but there are also regional taxonomic revisions, e.g., for Chile by Rosas (1989), or Argentina by Múlgura de Romero (1981, 1982 & 1984).

scholarly journals Impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth in the world during 1975–2015

2018 ◽  
Vol 20 (91) ◽  
pp. 28-32
Author(s):  
B. B. Brychka
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Literature Review ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact

The study is concentrated on examination the impact of FDI on economic growth in the World during 1975–2015. The study consists of four consecutive parts, including introduction, literature review, model and methodology, data, empirical results and conclusion. Each part of the study is focused on its own goals. According to the results of the literature review, there is positive influence of FDI on economic growth in various countries. Economic growth is one of the most important goals of any country. The country image on the international level is dependent on its economic power. Economic growth provides an opportunity to improve the living standards in the country. Most researchers conclude that there is a positive influence of FDI on the countries’ economic growth. However, the impact of FDI is strong in developing countries. Moreover, this relationship is stronger in countries with higher educational and technological level, trade openness and development of the countries’ stock markets. Economists often build regression models to estimate the relationship between the variables. In order to find the impact of FDI on economic growth, we are going to apply linear regression models. We take two variables as indicators of the countries’ economic growth, including current GDP expressed in U.S dollars, and annual GDP growth rate. Taking into account that the World’s GDP in current U.S dollar is a factor variable with the mentioned resulting variables, the regression equation looks as follows: The R-squared of the built model is 0.99, indicating that roughly 100% of changes in the World’s GDP is caused by the chosen factors. As it is seen from the SAS output, the residuals of dependent variable and factors variables are distributed normally among its average value. Thus, non-normality is not observed in the model. Taking into account the coefficients of the factor variables, the log GDP is most sensitive to the changes in trade as a percent of GDP. The log GDP is not quite sensitive to the changes in FDI, since the coefficient of 0.000128 means that increasing of FDI by one unit increase the logarithmic value of GDP by $ 0.000128.

scholarly journals Pole Image in the Light of Media Texts Created in the Internet Space by Residents of Neighbouring Countries

2020 ◽  
pp. 389-403
Author(s):  
Marta Hartenberger
Keyword(s):  
Media Culture ◽  
The Internet ◽  
Visual Code ◽  
Dynamic Changes ◽  
The World ◽  
Media Texts ◽  
National Stereotypes

The issue of national stereotypes requires, in the situation of dynamic changes in Europe and in the world, to update and consider new sources. A new area for tracking changes in the mutual perception of neighbouring nations are the texts of media culture, combining verbal and visual code. In the article, I elaborate on the legitimacy of using such intersemiotic messages, such as memes, demotivators, posters, advertisements, to study stereotypes. The Internet stereotype of a Pole functions on two levels, language and imagination, therefore it is a continuation of the national stereotype in a changed form.

scholarly journals Higher Education in VUCA-World: New Metaphor of University

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 31
Author(s):  
Tatiana V. Korsakova
Keyword(s):  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Organizational Systems ◽  
Modern World ◽  
Dynamic Changes ◽  
The World ◽  
Organizational Ties ◽  
State Of Affairs ◽  
The University ◽  
Current Reality

In the 21st century universities cannot survive if they simply support an established state of affairs because the modern world is described by the following relation: the rate of change tends to infinity; the transition interval tends to zero. This leads to the fact that universities cannot rest on their laurels and not change. The university that cannot construct new organizational ties loses its magnitude forever. The article describes the specific features of the new reality which are of great importance for building modern organizational systems in universities. Reference points have been being identified and that allows presenting the direction of development that meets the new requirements of the modern world to people, processes, technologies, structures, and systems accordingly to the university. Analysis of the selected reference points leads to the conclusion that in the conditions of dynamic changes and uncertainty of the world the concrete way of the vision of the university’s situation is to see it as if in the light of the modern world. A metaphor is presented, which is based on a comparison of the university internal world with the current reality. It is expressed by the acronym VUCA.

scholarly journals Pico satélite educativo CanSat desarrollado en las plataformas ARM-CortexM4 y FPGA

2019 ◽  
pp. 9-17
Author(s):  
Fernando Sánchez-Texis ◽  
Mariana Natalia Ibarra-Bonilla ◽  
Ivan Reyes-Castillo
Keyword(s):  
Data Storage ◽  
Inertial Sensors ◽  
Video Capture ◽  
Python Language ◽  
Fourth Level ◽  
Sensor Module ◽  
Four Levels ◽  
Gps System ◽  
Protective Case ◽  
Vision Module

This paper presents the design and implementation of a CanSat pico-satellite developed on the ARM-CortexM4 and FPGA Spartan6 platforms. The CanSat structure consists of four modules distributed in four levels of construction. The first level is the sensor module, consisting of: the IC BME280 (barometer, humidity and temperature), the L70 GPS system and an inertial sensors system MPU6050 and AK8975. The second level is the mission control module and incorporates an ARM-STM32F407 microcontroller integrated with the OS-Micropython that allows programming in Python language. This module has the capacity of data storage using an EEPROM-M24C32 memory and a micro-SD. The third level is the LoRa technology wireless communications module with a 10Km range. The fourth level is the vision module, consisting of an OV7670 camera interconnected with the FPGA XC6SLX16, which functions as a photo and video capture system. The design of the modules was made with SMD technology in PCB of up to four layers. The design of the CanSat protective case in PLA material, manufactured by 3D printing of FDM technology, is presented. Finally, the results of preliminary performance tests are presented.

scholarly journals Open Data in Qualitative Research

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 ◽  
pp. 160940691882386 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amelia Chauvette ◽  
Kara Schick-Makaroff ◽  
Anita E. Molzahn
Keyword(s):  
Qualitative Research ◽  
Ethical Issues ◽  
Secondary Analysis ◽  
Open Data ◽  
Research Data ◽  
Publicly Funded ◽  
Multiple Stakeholders ◽  
The World ◽  
Legal And Ethical Issues

There is a growing movement for research data to be accessed, used, and shared by multiple stakeholders for various purposes. The changing technological landscape makes it possible to digitally store data, creating opportunity to both share and reuse data anywhere in the world for later use. This movement is growing rapidly and becoming widely accepted as publicly funded agencies are mandating that researchers open their research data for sharing and reuse. While there are numerous advantages to use of open data, such as facilitating accountability and transparency, not all data are created equally. Accordingly, reusing data in qualitative research present some epistemological, methodological, legal, and ethical issues that must be addressed in the movement toward open data. We examine some of these challenges and make a case that some qualitative research data should not be reused in secondary analysis.

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