scholarly journals COVID-19: How to Relax Social Distancing If You Must

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Duque ◽  
David Paul Morton ◽  
Bismark Singh ◽  
Zhanwei Du ◽  
Remy Pasco ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Interval ◽  
Large City ◽  
Risk Of Infection ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Us ◽  
Project Risks ◽  
Opening Up ◽  
Annual Mortality ◽  
Local Leaders

Following the April 16, 2020 release of the Opening Up America Again guidelines for relaxing COVID-19 social distancing policies, local leaders are concerned about future pandemic waves and lack robust strategies for tracking and suppressing transmission. Here, we present a framework for monitoring COVID-19 hospitalization data to project risks and trigger shelter-in-place orders to prevent overwhelming healthcare surges while minimizing the duration of costly lockdowns. Assuming the relaxation of social distancing increases the risk of infection ten-fold, the optimal strategy for Austin, Texas--the fastest-growing large city in the US--will trigger a total of 135 [90% prediction interval: 126-141] days of sheltering, allow schools to open in the fall, and result in an expected 2929 deaths [90% prediction interval: 2837-3026] by September 2021, which is 29% the annual mortality rate. In the months ahead, policy makers are likely to face difficult choices and the extent of public restraint and cocooning of vulnerable populations may save or cost thousands of lives.

scholarly journals Timing social distancing to avert unmanageable COVID-19 hospital surges

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (33) ◽  
pp. 19873-19878 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Duque ◽  
David P. Morton ◽  
Bismark Singh ◽  
Zhanwei Du ◽  
Remy Pasco ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Prediction Interval ◽  
Large City ◽  
The United States ◽  
Response Strategy ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Opening Up ◽  
Annual Mortality ◽  
Local Leaders

Following the April 16, 2020 release of theOpening Up America Againguidelines for relaxing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) social distancing policies, local leaders are concerned about future pandemic waves and lack robust strategies for tracking and suppressing transmission. Here, we present a strategy for triggering short-term shelter-in-place orders when hospital admissions surpass a threshold. We use stochastic optimization to derive triggers that ensure hospital surges will not exceed local capacity and lockdowns are as short as possible. For example, Austin, Texas—the fastest-growing large city in the United States—has adopted a COVID-19 response strategy based on this method. Assuming that the relaxation of social distancing increases the risk of infection sixfold, the optimal strategy will trigger a total of 135 d (90% prediction interval: 126 d to 141 d) of sheltering, allow schools to open in the fall, and result in an expected 2,929 deaths (90% prediction interval: 2,837 to 3,026) by September 2021, which is 29% of the annual mortality rate. In the months ahead, policy makers are likely to face difficult choices, and the extent of public restraint and cocooning of vulnerable populations may save or cost thousands of lives.

scholarly journals Containing COVID-19 by Matching Messages on Social Distancing to Emergent Mindsets—The Case of North America

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (21) ◽  
pp. 8096
Author(s):  
Nick Bellissimo ◽  
Gillie Gabay ◽  
Attila Gere ◽  
Michaela Kucab ◽  
Howard Moskowitz
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Design ◽  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Response Patterns ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Us ◽  
Compliance Policy ◽  
Personal Viewpoint

Public compliance with social distancing is key to containing COVID-19, yet there is a lack of knowledge on which communication ‘messages’ drive compliance. Respondents (224 Canadians and Americans) rated combinations of messages about compliance, systematically varied by an experimental design. Independent variables were perceived risk; the agent communicating the policy; specific social distancing practices; and methods to enforce compliance. Response patterns to each message suggest three mindset segments in each country reflecting how a person thinks. Two mindsets, the same in Canada and the US, were ‘tell me exactly what to do,’ and ‘pandemic onlookers.’ The third was ‘bow to authority’ in Canada, and ‘tell me how’ in the US. Each mindset showed different messages strongly driving compliance. To effectively use messaging about compliance, policy makers may assign any person or group in the population to the appropriate mindset segment by using a Personal Viewpoint Identifier that we developed.

Reluctant Cold Warriors

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir Kontorovich
Keyword(s):  
Cold War ◽  
National Security ◽  
Soviet Economy ◽  
Accurate Analysis ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
The Us ◽  
Comprehensive Survey ◽  
The Cold War ◽  
The Military

The academic study of the Soviet economy in the US was created to help fight the Cold War, part of a broader mobilization of the social sciences for national security needs. The Soviet strategic challenge rested on the ability of its economy to produce large numbers of sophisticated weapons. The military sector was the dominant part of the economy, and the most successful one. However, a comprehensive survey of scholarship on the Soviet economy from 1948-1991 shows that it paid little attention to the military sector, compared to other less important parts of the economy. Soviet secrecy does not explain this pattern of neglect. Western scholars developed strained civilian interpretations for several aspects of the economy which the Soviets themselves acknowledged to have military significance. A close reading of the economic literature, combined with insights from other disciplines, suggest three complementary explanations for civilianization of the Soviet economy. Soviet studies was a peripheral field in economics, and its practitioners sought recognition by pursuing the agenda of the mainstream discipline, however ill-fitting their subject. The Soviet economy was supposed to be about socialism, and the military sector appeared to be unrelated to that. By stressing the militarization, one risked being viewed as a Cold War monger. The conflict identified in this book between the incentives of academia and the demands of policy makers (to say nothing of accurate analysis) has broad relevance for national security uses of social science.

scholarly journals Robust estimation of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in US counties

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanmo Li ◽  
Mengyang Gu
Keyword(s):  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Infectious Period ◽  
Protective Measures ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Us ◽  
Local Officials ◽  
Us Counties

AbstractThe COVID-19 outbreak is asynchronous in US counties. Mitigating the COVID-19 transmission requires not only the state and federal level order of protective measures such as social distancing and testing, but also public awareness of time-dependent risk and reactions at county and community levels. We propose a robust approach to estimate the heterogeneous progression of SARS-CoV-2 at all US counties having no less than 2 COVID-19 associated deaths, and we use the daily probability of contracting (PoC) SARS-CoV-2 for a susceptible individual to quantify the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a community. We found that shortening by $$5\%$$ 5 % of the infectious period of SARS-CoV-2 can reduce around $$39\%$$ 39 % (or 78 K, $$95\%$$ 95 % CI: [66 K , 89 K ]) of the COVID-19 associated deaths in the US as of 20 September 2020. Our findings also indicate that reducing infection and deaths by a shortened infectious period is more pronounced for areas with the effective reproduction number close to 1, suggesting that testing should be used along with other mitigation measures, such as social distancing and facial mask-wearing, to reduce the transmission rate. Our deliverable includes a dynamic county-level map for local officials to determine optimal policy responses and for the public to better understand the risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2 on each day.

scholarly journals Mining Google and Apple mobility data: temporal anatomy for COVID-19 social distancing

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Corentin Cot ◽  
Giacomo Cacciapaglia ◽  
Francesco Sannino
Keyword(s):  
Infection Rate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Strong Decrease ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Actual Measure ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Political Decisions ◽  
Mobility Reduction

AbstractWe employ the Google and Apple mobility data to identify, quantify and classify different degrees of social distancing and characterise their imprint on the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe and in the United States. We identify the period of enacted social distancing via Google and Apple data, independently from the political decisions. Our analysis allows us to classify different shades of social distancing measures for the first wave of the pandemic. We observe a strong decrease in the infection rate occurring two to five weeks after the onset of mobility reduction. A universal time scale emerges, after which social distancing shows its impact. We further provide an actual measure of the impact of social distancing for each region, showing that the effect amounts to a reduction by 20–40% in the infection rate in Europe and 30–70% in the US.

Universality, Quality & Economics: Finding a Balance in Ontario and British Columbia

1994 ◽  
Vol 20 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 203-229
Author(s):  
John D. Blum
Keyword(s):  
Health Reform ◽  
New Ventures ◽  
The United States ◽  
High Price ◽  
Social Programs ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
High Expectations ◽  
The Us ◽  
Acceptable Model ◽  
National Economies

National economies worldwide are in disarray, evidenced by escalating debts and growing deficits. As countries struggle with their faltering economies they are hard pressed to fulfill commitments of social programs made in more prosperous times, much less take on new government initiatives. The current experiences in health reform in the United States present an interesting example of the dilemmas governments now face when they embark on new ventures. While great political pressures have been launched and high expectations abound, the reality of American health reform quickly reveals that expanded access will come at a high price that won't be offset easily by conventional cost containment or market forces.In the search for an acceptable model for health reform, it was popular for policy makers and academics to turn their attentions to the health systems of other nations. Recommendations were made that the US should adopt a German or Canadian solution for our health problems.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Pandemic Response Simulation in a Large City: Impact of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on Reopening Society

2021 ◽  
pp. 0272989X2110030
Author(s):  
Serin Lee ◽  
Zelda B. Zabinsky ◽  
Judith N. Wasserheit ◽  
Stephen M. Kofsky ◽  
Shan Liu
Keyword(s):  
Large City ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
School Closure ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Variable Compliance ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions

As the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continues to expand, policymakers are striving to balance the combinations of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to keep people safe and minimize social disruptions. We developed and calibrated an agent-based simulation to model COVID-19 outbreaks in the greater Seattle area. The model simulated NPIs, including social distancing, face mask use, school closure, testing, and contact tracing with variable compliance and effectiveness to identify optimal NPI combinations that can control the spread of the virus in a large urban area. Results highlight the importance of at least 75% face mask use to relax social distancing and school closure measures while keeping infections low. It is important to relax NPIs cautiously during vaccine rollout in 2021.

scholarly journals Evaluating the effectiveness of social distancing interventions against COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Matrajt ◽  
Tiffany Leung
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Old Adults ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Us

AbstractSARS-CoV-2 has infected over 140,000 people as of March 14, 2020. We use a mathematical model to investigate the effectiveness of social distancing interventions lasting six weeks in a middle-sized city in the US. We explore four social distancing strategies by reducing the contacts of adults over 60 years old, adults over 60 years old and children, all adults (25, 75 or 95% compliance), and everyone in the population. Our results suggest that social distancing interventions can avert cases by 20% and hospitalizations and deaths by 90% even with modest compliance within adults as long as the intervention is kept in place, but the epidemic is set to rebound once the intervention is lifted. Our models suggest that social distancing interventions will buy crucial time but need to occur in conjunction with testing and contact tracing of all suspected cases to mitigate transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

scholarly journals Social Distancing Causally Impacts the Spread of SARS-CoV-2: A U.S. Nationwide Event Study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louis Gagnon ◽  
Stephanie Gagnon ◽  
Jessica Lloyd
Keyword(s):  
Social Mobility ◽  
Event Study ◽  
Experimental Setting ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
Spontaneous Relaxation ◽  
Causal Impact ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Rule Out

Abstract We assess the causal impact of a spontaneous relaxation of social distancing practices on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S., while controlling for social mobility and state-imposed social distancing restrictions. Using the quasi-experimental setting created by the U.S. nationwide protests precipitated by George Floyd’s tragic death on May 25, 2020, we document a country-wide increase of over 3·06 cases per day, per 100,000 population, following the onset of the protests (95% CI:2·47–3·65), and a further in-crease of 1·73 cases per day, per 100,000 population, in the counties in which the protests took place (95% CI:0·59–2·87). Relative to the week preceding the onset of the protests, this represents a 61·2% country-wide increase in COVID-19 cases, and a further 34·6% increase in the protest counties. Hence, we conclude that social distancing practices causally impact the spread of SARS-CoV-2. The observed effect cannot be explained by changes in social distancing restrictions and social mobility, and our placebo tests rule out the possibility that this finding is attributable to chance. Our research informs policy makers and provides insights regarding the usefulness of social distancing as an intervention to minimize the spread of SARS-CoV-2.

scholarly journals Empty talk? University voices on the Global Financial Crisis

2010 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Todd Bridgman
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
News Media ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Us ◽  
Complex Events ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Company Sector

The global financial crisis (GFC) which began in 2007 with a liquidity squeeze in the US banking system and which continues to play out today has affected us all, whether through the collapse of the finance company sector, rising unemployment, falling housing prices or the recession which followed the initial market crash. The speed and scope of the crisis surprised most experts – policy makers included. Specialists from a myriad of disciplines, from economics and finance to risk management, corporate governance and property, are trying to make sense of what happened, why it happened and what it means for us now and into the future. Members of the public rely on the news media to keep them informed of the crisis as it unfolds and they rely on experts to translate these complex events into a language which they can understand. The GFC is educating us all, and it is important that we all learn from it to avoid making the same mistakes again. 

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