scholarly journals Evaluating the effectiveness of social distancing interventions against COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Matrajt ◽  
Tiffany Leung
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Old Adults ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Us

AbstractSARS-CoV-2 has infected over 140,000 people as of March 14, 2020. We use a mathematical model to investigate the effectiveness of social distancing interventions lasting six weeks in a middle-sized city in the US. We explore four social distancing strategies by reducing the contacts of adults over 60 years old, adults over 60 years old and children, all adults (25, 75 or 95% compliance), and everyone in the population. Our results suggest that social distancing interventions can avert cases by 20% and hospitalizations and deaths by 90% even with modest compliance within adults as long as the intervention is kept in place, but the epidemic is set to rebound once the intervention is lifted. Our models suggest that social distancing interventions will buy crucial time but need to occur in conjunction with testing and contact tracing of all suspected cases to mitigate transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

scholarly journals The COVID States Project #26: Trajectory of COVID-19-related behaviors

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Lazer ◽  
Mauricio Santillana ◽  
Roy H. Perlis ◽  
Alexi Quintana ◽  
Katherine Ognyanova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Upper Midwest ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Current State ◽  
Change Behavior ◽  
Current Prevalence ◽  
The Us ◽  
National Trends

The current state of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States is dire, with circumstances in the Upper Midwest particularly grim. In contrast, multiple countries around the world have shown that temporary changes in human behavior and consistent precautions, such as effective testing, contact tracing, and isolation, can slow transmission of COVID-19, allowing local economies to remain open and societal activities to approach normalcy as of today. These include island countries such as New Zealand, Taiwan, Iceland and Australia, and continental countries such as Norway, Uruguay, Thailand, Finland, and South Korea. These successes demonstrate that coordinated action to change behavior can control the pandemic. In this report, we evaluate how the human behaviors that have been shown to inhibit the spread of COVID-19 have evolved across the US since April, 2020.Our report is based on surveys that the COVID States Project has been conducting approximately every month since April in all 50 US states plus the District of Columbia. We address four primary questions:1) What are the national trends in social distancing behaviors and mask wearing since April?2) What are the trends among particular population subsets?3) What are the trends across individual states plus DC?4) What is the relationship, at the state level, between social distancing behaviors and mask wearing with the current prevalence of COVID-19?

scholarly journals Will an imperfect vaccine curtail the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S.?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enahoro Amos Iboi ◽  
Calistus N. Ngonghala ◽  
Abba B Gumel
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Protective Efficacy ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
The State ◽  
Vaccination Program ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Us

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) that emerged from Wuhan city of China in late December 2019 continue to pose devastating public health and economic challenges across the world. Although the community-wide implementation of basic non-pharmaceutical intervention measures, such as social-distancing, quarantine of suspected COVID-19 cases, isolation of confirmed cases, use of face masks in public, and contact-tracing, have been quite effective in curtailing and mitigating the burden of the pandemic, it is universally believed that the use of an anti-COVID-19 vaccine is necessary to build the community herd immunity needed to effectively control and eliminate the pandemic. This study is based on the design and use of a mathematical model for assessing the population-level impact of a hypothetical imperfect anti-COVID-19 vaccine on the control of COVID-19. An analytical expression for the minimum number of unvaccinated susceptible individuals needed to be vaccinated to achieve vaccine-induced community herd immunity is derived. The epidemiological consequence of the herd immunity threshold is that the disease can be effectively controlled or eliminated if the minimum herd immunity threshold is achieved in the community. Simulations of the model, using baseline parameter values obtained from fitting the model with mortality data relevant to COVID-19 dynamics in the US states of New York and Florida, as well as for the entire US, show that, for an anti-COVID-19 vaccine with an assumed protective efficacy of 80%, the minimum herd immunity threshold for the entire US, state of New York and state of Florida are, respectively, 90%, 84% and 85%. Furthermore, it was shown that, while a significantly large increase in vaccination rate (from baseline) is necessarily needed to eliminate COVID-19 from the entire US, the pandemic can be eliminated from the states of New York and Florida if the vaccination rate is marginally increased (by as low as 10%) from its baseline value. The prospect of COVID-19 elimination in the US or in the two states of New York and Florida is greatly enhanced if the vaccination program is combined with a public mask use program or an effective social-distancing measure. Such combination of strategies significantly reduces the vaccine-induced herd immunity threshold. Finally, it is shown that the vaccination program is more likely to lead to COVID-19 elimination in the state of Florida, followed by the state of New York and then the entire US.

Are social networking platforms the key to effective social distancing for COVID-19? (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Viknesh Sounderajah ◽  
Hutan Ashrafian ◽  
Sheraz Markar ◽  
Ara Darzi
Keyword(s):  
Operating System ◽  
Social Networking ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Text Data ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Web Mapping ◽  
Viral Spread ◽  
Behavioural Insights ◽  
Mapping Software ◽  
Incidence And Mortality

UNSTRUCTURED If health systems are to effectively employ social distancing measures to in response to further COVID-19 peaks, they must adopt new behavioural metrics that can supplement traditional downstream measures, such as incidence and mortality. Access to mobile digital innovations may dynamically quantify compliance to social distancing (e.g. web mapping software) as well as establish personalised real-time contact tracing of viral spread (e.g. mobile operating system infrastructure through Google-Apple partnership). In particular, text data from social networking platforms can be mined for unique behavioural insights, such as symptom tracking and perception monitoring. Platforms, such as Twitter, have shown significant promise in tracking communicable pandemics. As such, it is critical that social networking companies collaborate with each other in order to (1) enrich the data that is available for analysis, (2) promote the creation of open access datasets for researchers and (3) cultivate relationships with governments in order to affect positive change.

scholarly journals Robust estimation of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in US counties

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanmo Li ◽  
Mengyang Gu
Keyword(s):  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Infectious Period ◽  
Protective Measures ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Us ◽  
Local Officials ◽  
Us Counties

AbstractThe COVID-19 outbreak is asynchronous in US counties. Mitigating the COVID-19 transmission requires not only the state and federal level order of protective measures such as social distancing and testing, but also public awareness of time-dependent risk and reactions at county and community levels. We propose a robust approach to estimate the heterogeneous progression of SARS-CoV-2 at all US counties having no less than 2 COVID-19 associated deaths, and we use the daily probability of contracting (PoC) SARS-CoV-2 for a susceptible individual to quantify the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a community. We found that shortening by $$5\%$$ 5 % of the infectious period of SARS-CoV-2 can reduce around $$39\%$$ 39 % (or 78 K, $$95\%$$ 95 % CI: [66 K , 89 K ]) of the COVID-19 associated deaths in the US as of 20 September 2020. Our findings also indicate that reducing infection and deaths by a shortened infectious period is more pronounced for areas with the effective reproduction number close to 1, suggesting that testing should be used along with other mitigation measures, such as social distancing and facial mask-wearing, to reduce the transmission rate. Our deliverable includes a dynamic county-level map for local officials to determine optimal policy responses and for the public to better understand the risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2 on each day.

scholarly journals Mining Google and Apple mobility data: temporal anatomy for COVID-19 social distancing

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Corentin Cot ◽  
Giacomo Cacciapaglia ◽  
Francesco Sannino
Keyword(s):  
Infection Rate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Strong Decrease ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Actual Measure ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Political Decisions ◽  
Mobility Reduction

AbstractWe employ the Google and Apple mobility data to identify, quantify and classify different degrees of social distancing and characterise their imprint on the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe and in the United States. We identify the period of enacted social distancing via Google and Apple data, independently from the political decisions. Our analysis allows us to classify different shades of social distancing measures for the first wave of the pandemic. We observe a strong decrease in the infection rate occurring two to five weeks after the onset of mobility reduction. A universal time scale emerges, after which social distancing shows its impact. We further provide an actual measure of the impact of social distancing for each region, showing that the effect amounts to a reduction by 20–40% in the infection rate in Europe and 30–70% in the US.

scholarly journals Addressing the COVID-19 transmission in inner Brazil by a mathematical model

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
G. B. Almeida ◽  
T. N. Vilches ◽  
C. P. Ferreira ◽  
C. M. C. B. Fortaleza
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Abiotic Factors ◽  
Severe Pneumonia ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Control Disease ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Public Health Strategies

AbstractIn 2020, the world experienced its very first pandemic of the globalized era. A novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, is the causative agent of severe pneumonia and has rapidly spread through many nations, crashing health systems and leading a large number of people to death. In Brazil, the emergence of local epidemics in major metropolitan areas has always been a concern. In a vast and heterogeneous country, with regional disparities and climate diversity, several factors can modulate the dynamics of COVID-19. What should be the scenario for inner Brazil, and what can we do to control infection transmission in each of these locations? Here, a mathematical model is proposed to simulate disease transmission among individuals in several scenarios, differing by abiotic factors, social-economic factors, and effectiveness of mitigation strategies. The disease control relies on keeping all individuals’ social distancing and detecting, followed by isolating, infected ones. The model reinforces social distancing as the most efficient method to control disease transmission. Moreover, it also shows that improving the detection and isolation of infected individuals can loosen this mitigation strategy. Finally, the effectiveness of control may be different across the country, and understanding it can help set up public health strategies.

scholarly journals A Mathematical Model of Contact Tracing during the 2014–2016 West African Ebola Outbreak

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 608
Author(s):  
Danielle Burton ◽  
Suzanne Lenhart ◽  
Christina J. Edholm ◽  
Benjamin Levy ◽  
Michael L. Washington ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Disease Management ◽  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Infected Individual ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
West African ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Using Data

The 2014–2016 West African outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) was the largest and most deadly to date. Contact tracing, following up those who may have been infected through contact with an infected individual to prevent secondary spread, plays a vital role in controlling such outbreaks. Our aim in this work was to mechanistically represent the contact tracing process to illustrate potential areas of improvement in managing contact tracing efforts. We also explored the role contact tracing played in eventually ending the outbreak. We present a system of ordinary differential equations to model contact tracing in Sierra Leonne during the outbreak. Using data on cumulative cases and deaths, we estimate most of the parameters in our model. We include the novel features of counting the total number of people being traced and tying this directly to the number of tracers doing this work. Our work highlights the importance of incorporating changing behavior into one’s model as needed when indicated by the data and reported trends. Our results show that a larger contact tracing program would have reduced the death toll of the outbreak. Counting the total number of people being traced and including changes in behavior in our model led to better understanding of disease management.

scholarly journals Impact of early detection and vaccination strategy in COVID-19 eradication program in Jakarta, Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dipo Aldila ◽  
Brenda M. Samiadji ◽  
Gracia M. Simorangkir ◽  
Sarbaz H. A. Khosnaw ◽  
Muhammad Shahzad
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Vaccination Strategy ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Rapid Testing ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
Vaccine Potential ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

Abstract Objective Several essential factors have played a crucial role in the spreading mechanism of COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease 2019) in the human population. These factors include undetected cases, asymptomatic cases, and several non-pharmaceutical interventions. Because of the rapid spread of COVID-19 worldwide, understanding the significance of these factors is crucial in determining whether COVID-19 will be eradicated or persist in the population. Hence, in this study, we establish a new mathematical model to predict the spread of COVID-19 considering mentioned factors. Results Infection detection and vaccination have the potential to eradicate COVID-19 from Jakarta. From the sensitivity analysis, we find that rapid testing is crucial in reducing the basic reproduction number when COVID-19 is endemic in the population rather than contact trace. Furthermore, our results indicate that a vaccination strategy has the potential to relax social distancing rules, while maintaining the basic reproduction number at the minimum possible, and also eradicate COVID-19 from the population with a higher vaccination rate. In conclusion, our model proposed a mathematical model that can be used by Jakarta’s government to relax social distancing policy by relying on future COVID-19 vaccine potential.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Pandemic Response Simulation in a Large City: Impact of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on Reopening Society

2021 ◽  
pp. 0272989X2110030
Author(s):  
Serin Lee ◽  
Zelda B. Zabinsky ◽  
Judith N. Wasserheit ◽  
Stephen M. Kofsky ◽  
Shan Liu
Keyword(s):  
Large City ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
School Closure ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Variable Compliance ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions

As the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continues to expand, policymakers are striving to balance the combinations of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to keep people safe and minimize social disruptions. We developed and calibrated an agent-based simulation to model COVID-19 outbreaks in the greater Seattle area. The model simulated NPIs, including social distancing, face mask use, school closure, testing, and contact tracing with variable compliance and effectiveness to identify optimal NPI combinations that can control the spread of the virus in a large urban area. Results highlight the importance of at least 75% face mask use to relax social distancing and school closure measures while keeping infections low. It is important to relax NPIs cautiously during vaccine rollout in 2021.

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