scholarly journals What variables can better predict the number of infections and deaths worldwide by SARS-CoV-2? Variation through time

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. G. García de Alcañíz ◽  
J. Romero-López ◽  
R. P. Martínez-Esteban ◽  
V. López-Rodas ◽  
E. Costas
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Social Withdrawal ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Great Accuracy ◽  
Large Hospital ◽  
Predictive Variables ◽  
Cumulative Data ◽  
Travel Restrictions

ABSTRACTUsing data from 50 very different countries (which represent nearly 70% of world’s population) and by means of a regression analysis, we studied the predictive power of different variables (mobility, air pollution, health & research, economic and social & geographic indicators) over the number of infected and dead by SARS-CoV-2. We also studied if the predictive power of these variables changed during a 4 months period (March, April, May and June). We approached data in two different ways, cumulative data and non-cumulative data.The number of deaths by Covid-19 can always be predicted with great accuracy from the number of infected, regardless of the characteristics of the country. Inbound tourism emerged as the variable that best predicts the number of infected (and, consequently, the number of deaths) happening in the different countries. Electricity consumption and air pollution of a country (CO2 emissions, nitrous oxide and methane) are also capable of predicting, with great precision, the number of infections and deaths from Covid-19. Characteristics such as the area and population of a country can also predict, although to a lesser extent, the number of infected and dead. All predictive variables remained significant through time.In contrast, a series of variables, which in principle would seem to have a greater influence on the evolution of Covid-19 (hospital bed density, Physicians per 1000 people, Researches in R & D, urban population…), turned out to have very little - or none-predictive power.Our results explain why countries that opted for travel restrictions and social withdrawal policies at a very early stage of the pandemic outbreak, obtained better results. Preventive policies proved to be the key, rather than having large hospital and medical resources.

scholarly journals Air Pollution and Post-COVID-19 Work Resumption: Evidence from China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Zheng
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Positive Relation ◽  
Industrial Enterprises ◽  
Local Weather ◽  
Work Resumption

Abstract To cope with the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), national or subnational regions have carried out anti-pandemic measures such as locking down, which may improve their air quality. This paper examines the relation between air pollution and work resumption from a novel post-pandemic perspective. Using unique data on detailed industrial electricity consumption in China, this paper doesn't find a positive relation between post-COVID-19 work resumption and air pollution during the early-stage recovery. This result is obtained after controlling for province and date fixed effects, as well as local weather conditions. However, the positive relation is found for a particular subsample of large industrial enterprises and April. This finding indicates that large industrial enterprises may recover first, and the resumption is progressing gradually. Finally, several policy implications are provided, which are essentially helpful for other countries’ post-pandemic recovery.

Zanieczyszczenie powietrza jako zagrożenie bezpieczeństwa zdrowotnego w Polsce – w świetle teorii sekurytyzacji

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 159-176
Author(s):  
Joanna Stryjek
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Qualitative Analysis ◽  
Human Health ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Security Studies ◽  
Health Security ◽  
Scientific Debate ◽  
Copenhagen School ◽  
The Eu

Nowadays, air pollution constitutes one of the most serious threats to human health and life. Poland belongs to the group of countries with the highest level of air pollution in the EU and OECD. The scale of the threat posed by air pollution shows its importance when it comes to the health security of the Polish citizens. However, the ongoing (political and scientific) debate on health security in Poland often ignores the problem of air pollution. The aim of the article is to 1) assess the threat currently posed by air pollution to health security in Poland, 2) locate the threat in the area of health security, and 3) analyse the process of transferring the problem of air pollution from the sphere of politics to the area of security, in accordance with the theory of securitization, developed by the Copenhagen School of Security Studies. Qualitative analysis of documents together with the application of the theory of securitization show that, in Poland, the state has started to play the role of an actor securitizing air pollution as an existential threat. Nevertheless, this process is at an early stage, and its further success depends, inter alia, on decisions and possibilities related to taking extraordinary measures to eliminate the threat posed by air pollution.

scholarly journals Increase in domestic electricity consumption from particulate air pollution

Nature Energy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (12) ◽  
pp. 985-995
Author(s):  
Pan He ◽  
Jing Liang ◽  
Yueming (Lucy) Qiu ◽  
Qingran Li ◽  
Bo Xing
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Particulate Air Pollution ◽  
Domestic Electricity

scholarly journals The Efficiency of Economic Performance, Electricity Consumption, and Environmental Pollutants in Taiwan

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Wen-jie Zou ◽  
Tai-Yu Lin ◽  
Yung-ho Chiu ◽  
Ting Teng ◽  
Kuei Ying Huang
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Air Pollutants ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Living Environment ◽  
Air Pollutant ◽  
Disposable Income ◽  
Pollutant Emissions ◽  
Motor Vehicles ◽  
Overall Efficiency

Finding the balance between economic development and environmental protection is a major problem for many countries around the world. Air pollution caused by economic growth has caused serious damage to humans’ living environment, and as improving energy and resource efficiencies is the first priority, many countries are targeting to move towards a sustainable environment and economic development. This study uses the modified dynamic SBM (slack-based measure) model to explore the economic efficiency and air pollutants emission efficiency in Taiwan’s counties and cities from 2012 to 2015 by taking labor, motor vehicles, and electricity consumption as inputs and average disposable income as output. Particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen oxide emissions (NO2), and sulfur oxide emissions (SO2) are undesirable outputs, whereas factory fixed assets are a carry-over variable, and the results show the following: (1) the regions with the best overall efficiency between 2012 and 2015 include Taipei City, Keelung City, Hsinchu City, Chiayi City, and Taitung County; (2) in counties and cities with poor overall efficiency performance, the average disposable income per household has no significant relationship with air pollutant emissions; (3) in counties and cities where overall efficiency is poor, the average efficiency of each household’s disposable income is small; and (4) except for the five counties and cities with the best overall performance, the three air pollutants in the other fourteen counties and cities are high. Overall, the air pollution of most areas needs improvement.

Self-aggravation effect of air pollution: Evidence from residential electricity consumption in China

2020 ◽  
Vol 86 ◽  
pp. 104684 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fujin Yi ◽  
Haijian Ye ◽  
Ximing Wu ◽  
Y. Yvette Zhang ◽  
Fei Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Residential Electricity ◽  
Residential Electricity Consumption

Recurrence Score across the age spectrum: Is there an age discrimination?

2013 ◽  
Vol 31 (26_suppl) ◽  
pp. 27-27
Author(s):  
Franz Omar Smith ◽  
Marie Catherine Lee ◽  
Geza Acs ◽  
William J. Fulp ◽  
Ji-Hyun Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Estrogen Receptor ◽  
Lymph Node ◽  
Treatment Planning ◽  
Tumor Size ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Recurrence Score ◽  
Positive Lymph Node ◽  
Node Negative

27 Background: Treatment planning for early-stage estrogen receptor (ER) positive, lymph node negative breast cancer was based on prognostic factors with limited predictive power such as age. The Recurrence Score (RS) from the Oncotype DX assay (ODX) provides predictive power transcending age but is rarely applied to the elderly or young patients (pts). We examined our experience with RS along the age continuum. Methods: Retrospective review was conducted of prospectively gathered breast cancer pts having a RS obtained as part of their cancer care. Eligibility for performance of the ODX was based on NCCN guidelines or physician discretion. Comparisons on RS were made by age groups (young: <45yrs; middle: >45yrs -<70yrs: elderly: >70yrs) using general linear regression model and the exact Wilcoxon Rank Sum Test. Results: 677pts had 681 tumors with RS available (89 young, 476 middle and 112 elderly pts). Median RS for the study pts was 17 (range 0-85) and 16, 17, and 15 for the young, middle, and elderly respectively. Median age was 58yrs (range: 27-95); young, middle, and elderly was 42, 58, and 74yrs respectively. Age as a continuous or categorical variable was not predictive of RS (p value = 0.38, 0.58 respectively). No significant differences were seen between age cohorts for histology, mitotic rate, lymphovascular invasion (LVI), grade, nodal status, stage, or strength of ER positivity. Mastectomy rates were higher in the young (57.5%), compared to the middle (42.5%) and elderly (39.6%) (p=0.02). Median invasive tumor size was 1.6, 1.5, and 1.5cm for young, middle, and elderly. Larger tumor size, as a continuous variable, equaled higher RS (p=0.046). Other significant factors predicting higher RS were increased mitosis (p<0.001), LVI (p=0.013), high grade (p<0.001), and weak (<10%) ER positivity (p<0.001). Nodal status, stage, and histology did not affect RS. Conclusions: Age has limited predictive power for treatment planning for breast cancer. Age alone should not preclude recommendations for performance of ODX in estrogen receptor positive lymph node negative early stage breast cancer as the RS distribution across the spectrum of age is well matched.

Use of surgery and stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) in very elderly patients with early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC): A national cancer database (NCDB) analysis.

2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e20058-e20058
Author(s):  
Michael Kharouta ◽  
William Grubb ◽  
Tarun Kanti Podder ◽  
Tithi Biswas
Keyword(s):  
Elderly Patients ◽  
Median Survival ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Clinical Stage ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Stage I ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Very Elderly ◽  
Large Hospital ◽  
Early Stage Nsclc

e20058 Background: SBRT treatment for very elderly ( > 80 years) patients with early stage NSCLC has been reported to be well tolerated with good short term efficacy. Using a large hospital based registry, we report a comparison of patterns of practice, outcomes, and prognostic factors for very elderly patients undergoing any treatment for early-stage NSCLC. Methods: The NCDB was queried for patients with clinical Stage I-IIA NSCLC with age ≥ 80 years diagnosed from 2001-2015 treated with surgery or SBRT alone. Patients were excluded if they received chemotherapy /immunotherapy or non-standard SBRT doses (i.e. > 5 fractions of RT, < 30 Gy or > 70 Gy total dose). Survival analyses were performed with propensity-matching, Kaplan-Meier estimates, Cox proportional hazards regression, and log rank testing. Results: 26039 patients met search criteria, median age 83 (80-90) years. 17141 (65.8%) patients underwent surgery, and 8898 (34.2%) underwent SBRT. Median follow up was 31 months. Median survival was 52 and 35 months for surgery and SBRT. Of patients receiving SBRT, 2044 (23%) had a contraindication to primary surgery due to patient risk factors. Age, clinical stage, tumor size, surgery type, CDCC score, BED, bronchial involvement, and type of treatment facility were predictive of median survival. BED > 154 Gy was associated with greater median survival (p < 0.01). Lobectomy was associated with greater median survival vs sub-lobar resection/pneumonectomy (p < 0.0001). For stage I tumors, surgery was associated with better median survival (56 vs. 35 months, p < 0.0001), but for stage IIA patients both modalities had similar median survival (30 vs 29 months, p = 0.04). Conclusions: Surgery remains the predominant treatment modality for early stage NSCLC in this very elderly population, and is associated with good outcomes for patients with stage I tumors. For elderly patients who are poor surgical candidates due to medical co-morbidities SBRT is associated with reasonable median survival. With limited information on patient comorbidities, more robust studies are needed to determine the effects of patient selection on treatment outcomes in this population.

scholarly journals Predictive power of the intraoperative evaluation of retroareolar margin in mammary adenectomies for the treatment of early-stage breast cancer

Mastology ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Suppl 1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebeca Neves Heinzen ◽  
Alfredo Carlos Simões Dornellas de Barros ◽  
Filomena Marino Carvalho ◽  
Fernando Nalesso Aguiar ◽  
Alfredo Luiz Jacomo
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Early Stage Breast Cancer ◽  
Resonance Imaging ◽  
Intraoperative Evaluation ◽  
Areola Complex ◽  
Magnetic Resonance Imaging Mri ◽  
Paraffin Method

Introduction: Mammary adenectomy (MA) has been increasingly adopted to treat early-stage breast cancer (BC) for its cosmetic benefits and oncologic safety. In order to ensure the local control of the disease, the amount of remaining glandular tissue should be the least possible, and surgical margins must be free. Objective: To evaluate the predictive power of the intraoperative evaluation of retroareolar margin (IERM) compared to the gold-standard represented by the definitive analysis of sections embedded in paraffin. Method: This is a retrospective cohort study conducted with patients from the Clínica Professor Alfredo Barros, based on 224 individuals submitted to surgery with the MA technique (178 infiltrating carcinomas and 46 ductal carcinomas in situ). In all patients, the distance tumor-nipple-areola complex (NAC) was ≥2.0 cm, according to magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). A 0.5 cm thick flap was used in the region below the NAC. IERM was performed through cytopathological and histopathological examinations. IERM findings were compared to those of the definitive paraffin examination to calculate the parameters of predictive power. Results: In 5 cases (2.2%), IERM was positive, and NAC was immediately removed. The parameters of IERM predictive power can be seen below: Sensitivity 100%, Specificity 100%, Positive predictive value 100%, Positive negative value 97,3%, Accuracy 98,2%. Conclusion: IERM is highly accurate, has full specificity, and the NAC can be managed intraoperatively according to its result.

scholarly journals Do Renewable Energy Policies Can Decrease The Deaths From Outdoor and Indoor Air Pollution? Empirical Evidence From Latin American and Caribbean Countries

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matheus Koengkan ◽  
José Alberto Fuinhas ◽  
Emad Kazemzadeh ◽  
Nooshin Karimi Alavijeh ◽  
Saulo Jardim Araújo
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Indoor Air ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Indoor Air Pollution ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Clean Energy ◽  
Energy Sources

Abstract This investigation analysed the effect of renewable energy incentive policies on deaths caused by outdoor and indoor air pollution in fifteen countries from Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region over the period from 1990 to 2017. The results from the Panel quantile model regression showed that in the 0.25, 0.5, and 0.75 quantiles, the variables carbon dioxide emissions, electricity consumption from new renewable energy sources economic instruments-fiscal/financial incentives policies to enable clean energy deployment, economic growth, and social globalisation reduces the air pollution deaths, while the variables electricity consumption from non-renewable energy sources, urbanisation, and economic globalisation encourages the increase of these deaths caused by outdoor and indoor air pollution in the LAC region.

Humour: coping with travel bans during the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sari Lenggogeni ◽  
Ann Suwaree Ashton ◽  
Noel Scott
Keyword(s):  
Early Stage ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Warning Signs ◽  
Stressful Event ◽  
Prodromal Stage ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Media Reports ◽  
Use Of Social Media

Purpose This study aims to extend the use of psychology in the field of tourism crisis and disaster management using coping theory. It examines how resident emotions change in the extended prodromal stage of the COVID-19 pandemic and how residents used humour to cope with stress from not being able to travel. Design/methodology/approach Early COVID-19 (March–April 2020) was characterised by negative media reports, lockdowns and travel restrictions but for Indonesia, no direct effects in terms of loss of life. This unusual context has led to phenomena not previously studied – humour as a coping strategy. This research consists of two studies: Study 1 used thematic analysis of interviews before and during the early lockdown period with a panel of 245 quarantined residents who had travelled in the prior two years. Study 2 followed up using a #hasthtag analysis of travel-related videos content posted on Instagram and TikTok. Findings The COVID-19 global pandemic is an unusual crisis which has resulted in high levels of stress and uncertainty. This study identified the unusual characteristics of the COVID-19 crises and changes of quarantined resident’s emotions during the pre-event and prodromal stages. In addition, this study found the use of humour as a coping mechanism during the lockdown period and the use of social media as the vehicle for humour. Research limitations/implications These findings may be generalisable only to a crises and disasters with an extended prodromal stage. Interestingly, climate change has some similar characteristics where warning signs are available, but the personal implications have not yet become apparent. Practical implications The emotions associated with crisis are dynamic and crisis managers may tailor communication to help deal with stress. Social implications This research provides an insight into how humorous content can be used to reduce negative emotions in the early stage of a stressful event associated with travel restrictions. This study may be suitable for use in integrated marketing communication in post-recovery messaging for the tourism industry and destination management organisation in the digital platform. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to demonstrate “dark humour” during the early stages of COVID-19 and also the use of coping strategies to explain how humour can reduce stress.

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