New Insights on Excess Deaths and COVID-19
Background: Weinberger and colleagues estimated that 27,065 of the 122,300 excess deaths in the United States between March 1 and May 30, 2020 did not have a COVID-19 cause of death. Methods: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) post weekly data on mortality for 13 causes of death from the most prevalent comorbid conditions reported on death certificates where COVID-19 was listed as a cause of death. The 2015-2019 data for weeks 10 through 22 were used to forecast the number of deaths from the 13 causes in the absence of COVID-19 during 2020. The forecast was subtracted from the observed number of deaths for each cause during the period March 1 to May 30, 2020. Results: The total of the differences for each of the 13 causes of death, 18,489 deaths, accounts for over two-thirds of the 27,065 excess deaths not due to COVID-19. Conclusion: Combining the 95,235 reported COVID-19 deaths with the 18,489 from the 13 most frequent comorbid conditions reported on death certificates where COVID-19 was a cause suggests that as many as 93% of the excess deaths were due to COVID-19 and implies that COVID-19 deaths were undercounted. Ongoing assessment of excess deaths and causes of death is needed to provide a better understanding of the pandemics dynamics.