Epidemic Analysis of COVID-19 in Egypt, Qatar and Saudi Arabia using the Generalized SEIR Model

Background. Since its emergence in late December 2019 and its declaration as a global pandemic by World Health Organization (WHO) on March 11, 2020, the novel coronavirus disease known as (COVID-19) has attracted global attention. The process of modeling and predicting the pandemic behavior became crucial as the different states needed accurate predictions to be able to adopt suitable policies to minimize the pressure on their health care systems. Researchers have employed modified variants of classical SIR/SEIR models to describe the dynamics of this pandemic. In this paper, after proven effective in numerous countries, a modified variant of SEIR is implemented to predict the behavior of COVID-19 in Egypt and other countries in the Middle East. Methods. We built MATLAB simulations to fit the real data of COVID-19 Active, recovered and death Cases in Egypt, Qatar and Saudi Arabia to the modified SEIR model via Nelder-Mead algorithm to be able to estimate the future dynamics of the pandemic. Findings. We estimate several characteristics of COVID-19 future dynamics in Egypt, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. We also estimate that the pandemic will resolve in the countries under investigation in February 2021, January 2021 and 28th August 2020 with total death cases of 9,742, 5,600 and 185 and total cases of 187,600, 490,000 and 120,000 respectively.

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Implementation of the Integrated Care of Older People (ICOPE) App in Primary Care: New Technologies in Geriatric Care during Quarantine of COVID-19 and Beyond

Journal of Frailty & Aging ◽

10.14283/jfa.2020.24 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 1-2

Author(s):

D. Sanchez-Rodriguez ◽

C. Annweiler ◽

S. Gillain ◽

B. Vellas

Keyword(s):

New Technologies ◽

Health Care Systems ◽

Action Plan ◽

Credible Interval ◽

Therapeutic Interventions ◽

World Health ◽

Global Priority ◽

Care Systems ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

Health Organization

The COVID-19 pandemic due to a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in December 2019 has rapidly spread worldwide. The mortality rate is about 2.3% in general population, with high human-to-human transmission of 0.41 (credible interval [0.27, 0.55]), and nasopharyngeal asymptomatic carriers act as vectors within the population (1). The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the pandemic on March 2020, and established objectives and action plan. First, WHO aimed at limiting the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, which required large isolation actions (country borders lockdown and individual quarantine). Second, WHO aimed at guiding and supporting the different health care systems across countries. Finally, developing therapeutic interventions appeared as a global priority as available evidence were still scarce (1). More than 860 clinical trials are ongoing worldwide.

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Infection by the Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19) and Pregnancy: 2 Cases Reports at the University Teaching Hospital of Angre/Abidjan

Journal of Gynecology Research Reviews & Reports ◽

10.47363/jgrrr/2020(2)115 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 1-3

Author(s):

Adjoby Cassou Roland ◽

◽

Gbary-Lagaud Eleonore ◽

Effoh Ndrin Denis ◽

◽

...

Keyword(s):

Health Care Systems ◽

Current Data ◽

University Teaching ◽

University Hospital ◽

World Health ◽

The Novel ◽

The World ◽

Care Systems ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

Health Organization

The novel coronavirus (SARS-Cov-2) that appeared in December 2019 in China quickly spread to all countries around the world leading the World Health Organization (WHO) to declare a pandemic on 11 March 2020. This pandemic is particularly serious in that it severely undermines health care systems in all affected countries, including developing and resource-constrained countries, forcing them to adapt quickly. Current data on COVID-19 and pregnancy are limited. The first published Chinese data seem to show that the symptoms in pregnant women are substantially the same as those in the general population. Through the first 2 cases of COVID-19 observed during pregnancy at Angré University Hospital, the authors wanted to share their experience, under the conditions of a low-resources country.

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Infection by the Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19) and Pregnancy: 2 Cases Reports at the University Teaching Hospital of Angre/Abidjan

Journal of Gynecology Research Reviews & Reports ◽

10.47363/jgrrr/2019(2)115 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 1-3

Author(s):

Adjoby Cassou Roland ◽

◽

Gbary-Lagaud Eleonore ◽

Effoh Ndrin Denis ◽

◽

...

Keyword(s):

Health Care Systems ◽

Current Data ◽

University Teaching ◽

University Hospital ◽

World Health ◽

The Novel ◽

The World ◽

Care Systems ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

Health Organization

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Accounting for the Rising Caesarean Section Rate in Canada: What Are the Roles of Changing Needs, Practices, and Incentives?

Canadian Public Policy ◽

10.3138/cpp.2021-017 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Michael Baker ◽

Maripier Isabelle ◽

Mark Stabile ◽

Sara Allin

Keyword(s):

Caesarean Section ◽

Financial Incentives ◽

Health Care Systems ◽

Caesarean Section Rate ◽

The United States ◽

World Health ◽

Strong Increase ◽

Primary Determinant ◽

Care Systems ◽

Health Organization

In most high-income countries, including Canada, the share of births by Caesarean section (C‑section) has risen over the past decades to far exceed World Health Organization recommendations of the proportion justified on medical grounds (15 percent). Although unnecessary C-sections represent an important cost for health care systems, they are not associated with clear benefits for the mother and the child and can sometimes represent additional risks. Drawing on administrative records of nearly four million births in Canada, as well as macro data from the United States and Australia, we provide a comprehensive account of rising C-section rates. We explicitly consider the contributions of the main factors brought forward in the policy literature, including changing characteristics of mothers, births, and physicians as well as changing financial incentives for C-section deliveries. These factors account for at most one-half of the increase in C-section rates. The majority of the remaining increase in C-sections over the period 1994–2011 occurred in the early 2000s. We suggest that some event or shock in the early 2000s is likely the primary determinant of the recent strong increase in the C-section rate in Canada.

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Epidemiological Models of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) to Control the Transmission Based on Current Evidence: A Systematic Review

10.20944/preprints202007.0262.v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Swati Arora ◽

Rishabh Jain ◽

Harendra Pal Singh

Keyword(s):

Real Data ◽

World Health ◽

Current Evidence ◽

Epidemiological Models ◽

Medical Supplies ◽

The World ◽

The Usa ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

Health Organization ◽

The Uk

In Wuhan city of China, an episode of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) happened. during late December and it has quickly spread to all places in the world. Until May 29, 2020, cases were high in the USA with 1.7 Million, Russia with approximately 387 thousand, the UK with 271 thousand confirmed cases. Everybody on the planet is anxious to know when the coronavirus pandemic will end. In this scourge, most nations force extreme medication measures to contain the spread of COVID-19. Modeling has been utilized broadly by every national government and the World Health Organization in choosing the best procedures to seek after in relieving the impacts of COVID-19. Many epidemiological models are studied to understand the spread of the illness and its prediction to find maximum capacity for human-to-human transmission so that control techniques can be adopted. Also, arrangements for the medical facilities required such as hospital beds and medical supplies can be made in advance. Many models are used to anticipate the results keeping in view the present scenario. There is an urgent need to study the various models and their impacts. In this study, we present a systematic literature review on epidemiological models for the outbreak of novel coronavirus in India. The epidemiological dynamics of COVID-19 is also studied. Here, In addition, an attempt to take out the results from the exploration and comparing it with the real data. The study helps to choose the models that are progressive and dependable to predict and give legitimate methods for various strategies.

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Visual Data Analysis and Simulation Prediction for COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia Using SEIR Prediction Model

International Journal of Online and Biomedical Engineering (iJOE) ◽

10.3991/ijoe.v17i08.20099 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 17 (08) ◽

pp. 154

Author(s):

Shakir Khan

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Saudi Arabia ◽

Prediction Models ◽

Preventive Measures ◽

Future Trend ◽

Control Measures ◽

World Health ◽

Seir Model ◽

The World ◽

Health Organization

<p>The World Health Organization (WHO) reported the COVID-19 epidemic a global health emergency on January 30 and confirmed its transformation into a pandemic on March 11. China has been the hardest hit since the virus's outbreak, which may date back to late November. Saudi Arabia realized the danger of the Coronavirus in March 2020, took the initiative to take a set of pre-emptive decisions that preceded many countries of the world, and worked to harness all capabilities to confront the outbreak of the epidemic. Several researchers are currently using various mathematical and machine learning-based prediction models to estimate this pandemic's future trend. In this work, the SEIR model was applied to predict the epidemic situation in Saudi Arabia and evaluate the effectiveness of some epidemic control measures, and finally, providing some advice on preventive measures.</p>

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THE WAY THE HEALTH CARE SYSTEM IN UKRAINE LOOKS LIKE: INTERNATIONAL PRACTICES WITHIN NATIONAL REALITIES

Wiadomości Lekarskie ◽

10.36740/wlek201904135 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 72 (4) ◽

pp. 685-691

Author(s):

Borys O. Lohvynenko ◽

Roman V. Myroniuk ◽

Olexander P. Svitlychnyy ◽

Aleksey Y. Prokopenko ◽

Lidija I. Kalenichenko

Keyword(s):

Health Care ◽

Health Care System ◽

National Health ◽

Health Care Systems ◽

World Health ◽

National Health Care ◽

National Health Care System ◽

Care Systems ◽

Health Organization ◽

Care System

Introduction: Nowadays there is the transformation of the national health care system in Ukraine, the ultimate goal of which is to create a modern, competitive model of medical care of citizens on the basis of forming packages of free medical services. However, the model adopted by Ukraine is in contradiction with national legislation in part of free medical aid guaranteed by the Art. 49 of the Constitution of Ukraine, and fragmentary considers positive international practices. The aim of the paper is to determine the mistakes of the reform of the Ukrainian health care system and to reveal the positive international practices of the organization of health care systems that can be implemented in Ukraine. Materials and methods: National and international legislation, official web resources of the executive authorities of Ukraine, statistics of the World Health Organization, materials of journalistic and scientific periodicals are the materials for the research of the health care system in Ukraine in comparison with international practices. Research methods are cross-sectoral, complex statistical, comparative, generalization, analysis and synthesis. In order to obtain the results, the authors have conducted a critical analysis of the current norms of the national Ukrainian legislation in the health care sector. Review: The authors of the article have studied the main disadvantages of the national health care system in accordance with the concept of reforming the medical sector. Positive international practices that can be implemented into Ukrainian system for the real improvement of medical human rights in Ukraine have been revealed. Conclusions: It has been proved that the ongoing reform of the health care system in Ukraine needs to be reviewed and optimized. It has been offered to consolidate a perspective model of the Ukrainian health care system, its principles and guarantees of immunity at the legislative level.

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Unfavorable Mortality-To-Incidence Ratio of Lung Cancer Is Associated with Health Care Disparity

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph15122889 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 15 (12) ◽

pp. 2889 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Cheng-Yu Huang ◽

Kwong-Kwok Au ◽

Sung-Lang Chen ◽

Shao-Chuan Wang ◽

Chi-Yu Liao ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Lung Cancer ◽

Health Care ◽

Health Care Systems ◽

Health Care Expenditures ◽

Good Health ◽

World Health ◽

Incidence And Mortality ◽

Care Systems ◽

Adequate Quality ◽

Health Organization

The mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) is associated with the clinical outcome of cancer treatment. For several cancers, countries with relatively good health care systems have favorable MIRs. However, the association between lung cancer MIR and health care expenditures or rankings has not been evaluated. We used linear regression to analyze the correlation between lung cancer MIRs and the total expenditures on health/gross domestic product (e/GDP) and the World Health Organization (WHO) rankings. We included 57 countries, for which data of adequate quality were available, and we found high rates of incidence and mortality but low MIRs in more developed regions. Among the continents, North America had the highest rates of incidence and mortality, whereas the highest MIRs were in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean. Globally, favorable MIRs correlated with high e/GDP and good WHO ranking (regression coefficient, −0.014 and 0.001; p = 0.004, and p = 0.014, respectively). In conclusion, the MIR for lung cancer in different countries varies with the expenditure on health care and health system rankings.

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Dilemma in the foreign lands during COVID-19: An outlook of expat health care professionals with a take on a social perspective

Work ◽

10.3233/wor-203331 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 67 (4) ◽

pp. 779-782

Author(s):

Namdeo Prabhu ◽

Rakhi Issrani

Keyword(s):

Health Care ◽

Saudi Arabia ◽

Health Care Professionals ◽

Current Situation ◽

World Health ◽

Contact Tracing ◽

Global Pandemic ◽

Travel Restrictions ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

Health Organization

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection a global pandemic due to the fast transmission of this disease worldwide. To prevent and slow the transmission of this contagious illness, the public health officials of many affected countries scrambled to introduce measures aimed at controlling its spread. As a result, unprecedented interventions/measures, including strict contact tracing, quarantine of entire towns/cities, closing of borders and travel restrictions, have been implemented by most of the affected countries including the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this paper is to share health care professionals’ perspectives who are experiencing COVID19 firsthand in a foreign land. In addition, the role of the Saudi governance to combat the current situation is also discussed. DISCUSSION: Personal and previous experiences as related to Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) by the authors has been compared to the current situation and how it affected our thoughts and management. A review of the evidence-based literature was conducted to investigate the demographics of the region; and to understand the awareness of the various tools that are available and how they were utilized in the present situation of pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: Saudi Arabia has been challenged during the pandemic as are other countries.

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