Restoration ecologists might not get what they want: Global change shifts trade-offs among ecosystem functions

ABSTRACTEcological restoration increasingly aims at improving ecosystem multifunctionality and making landscapes resilient to future threats, especially in biodiversity hotspots such as Mediterranean-type ecosystems. Successful realisation of such a strategy requires a fundamental mechanistic understanding of the link between ecosystem plant composition, plant traits and related ecosystem functions and services, as well as how climate change affects these relationships. An integrated approach of empirical research and simulation modelling with focus on plant traits can allow this understanding.Based on empirical data from a large-scale restoration project in a Mediterranean-type climate in Western Australia, we developed and validated the spatially explicit simulation model ModEST, which calculates coupled dynamics of nutrients, water and individual plants characterised by traits. We then simulated all possible combinations of eight plant species with different levels of diversity to assess the role of plant diversity and traits on multifunctionality, the provision of six ecosystem functions (covering three ecosystem services), as well as trade-offs and synergies among the functions under current and future climatic conditions.Our results show that multifunctionality cannot fully be achieved because of trade-offs among functions that are attributable to sets of traits that affect functions differently. Our measure of multifunctionality was increased by higher levels of planted species richness under current, but not future climatic conditions. In contrast, single functions were differently impacted by increased plant diversity. In addition, we found that trade-offs and synergies among functions shifted with climate change.Synthesis and application. Our results imply that restoration ecologists will face a clear challenge to achieve their targets with respect to multifunctionality not only under current conditions, but also in the long-term. However, once ModEST is parameterized and validated for a specific restoration site, managers can assess which target goals can be achieved given the set of available plant species and site-specific conditions. It can also highlight which species combinations can best achieve long-term improved multifunctionality due to their trait diversity.

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Plant traits are poor predictors of long-term ecosystem functioning

10.1101/859314 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Fons van der Plas ◽

Thomas Schröder-Georgi ◽

Alexandra Weigelt ◽

Kathryn Barry ◽

Sebastian Meyer ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Plant Species ◽

Ecosystem Functioning ◽

Plant Traits ◽

Vascular Plant ◽

Plant Performance ◽

Ecosystem Functions ◽

Average Percentage ◽

Functional Consequences ◽

Small Set

ABSTRACTEarth is home to over 350,000 vascular plant species1 that differ in their traits in innumerable ways. Yet, a handful of functional traits can help explaining major differences among species in photosynthetic rate, growth rate, reproductive output and other aspects of plant performance2–6. A key challenge, coined “the Holy Grail” in ecology, is to upscale this understanding in order to predict how natural or anthropogenically driven changes in the identity and diversity of co-occurring plant species drive the functioning of ecosystems7, 8. Here, we analyze the extent to which 42 different ecosystem functions can be predicted by 41 plant traits in 78 experimentally manipulated grassland plots over 10 years. Despite the unprecedented number of traits analyzed, the average percentage of variation in ecosystem functioning that they jointly explained was only moderate (32.6%) within individual years, and even much lower (12.7%) across years. Most other studies linking ecosystem functioning to plant traits analyzed no more than six traits, and when including either only six random or the six most frequently studied traits in our analysis, the average percentage of explained variation in across-year ecosystem functioning dropped to 4.8%. Furthermore, different ecosystem functions were driven by different traits, with on average only 12.2% overlap in significant predictors. Thus, we did not find evidence for the existence of a small set of key traits able to explain variation in multiple ecosystem functions across years. Our results therefore suggest that there are strong limits in the extent to which we can predict the long-term functional consequences of the ongoing, rapid changes in the composition and diversity of plant communities that humanity is currently facing.

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Climate change alone cannot explain altered tick distribution across Europe: a spotlight on endemic and invasive tick species.

10.1079/9781789249637.0018 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 125-131

Author(s):

Frederic Stachurski ◽

Nathalie Boulanger ◽

Adrien Blisnick ◽

Laurence Vial ◽

Sarah Bonnet

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Tick Species ◽

Large Scale ◽

External Environment ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Climatic Impact ◽

Long Term Monitoring ◽

The Impact ◽

Term Monitoring

Abstract The effect of climate on the evolution of tick populations remains difficult to disentangle from other possible causes and undoubtedly varies depending on the region concerned and local tick species. Large-scale, long-term monitoring is, therefore, necessary to accurately assess climatic impact on tick populations. Climate change can alter tick populations, either indirectly by affecting vertebrate host populations or directly by increasing or decreasing their numbers. These ectoparasites, and in particular hard ticks, spend almost their entire life cycle in the external environment, thus climatic conditions influence their activity, viability and distribution. This expert opinion aims to illustrate the impact of climate change, and its association with other variables, on the distribution and abundance of tick populations in Europe using Ixodes ricinus and Hyalomma marginatum as typical examples of endemic and invasive species, respectively.

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Future heat adaptation and exposure among urban populations and why a prospering economy alone won’t save us

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-99757-0 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Linda Krummenauer ◽

Luís Costa ◽

Boris F. Prahl ◽

Jürgen P. Kropp

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Heat Exposure ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Negative Effects ◽

Economic Progress ◽

Trade Offs ◽

Adaptation To Heat ◽

Global Increase ◽

Related Mortality

AbstractWhen inferring on the magnitude of future heat-related mortality due to climate change, human adaptation to heat should be accounted for. We model long-term changes in minimum mortality temperatures (MMT), a well-established metric denoting the lowest risk of heat-related mortality, as a function of climate change and socio-economic progress across 3820 cities. Depending on the combination of climate trajectories and socio-economic pathways evaluated, by 2100 the risk to human health is expected to decline in 60% to 80% of the cities against contemporary conditions. This is caused by an average global increase in MMTs driven by long-term human acclimatisation to future climatic conditions and economic development of countries. While our adaptation model suggests that negative effects on health from global warming can broadly be kept in check, the trade-offs are highly contingent to the scenario path and location-specific. For high-forcing climate scenarios (e.g. RCP8.5) the maintenance of uninterrupted high economic growth by 2100 is a hard requirement to increase MMTs and level-off the negative health effects from additional scenario-driven heat exposure. Choosing a 2 °C-compatible climate trajectory alleviates the dependence on fast growth, leaving room for a sustainable economy, and leads to higher reductions of mortality risk.

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Relative humidity predominantly determines long-term biocrust-forming lichen survival under climate change

10.1101/2020.06.09.141564 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Selina Baldauf ◽

Philipp Porada ◽

José Raggio ◽

Fernando T. Maestre ◽

Britta Tietjen

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Relative Humidity ◽

Biological Soil Crust ◽

Ecosystem Functions ◽

List Type ◽

Lichen Cover ◽

Underlying Mechanisms ◽

Experimental Findings ◽

Fertilization Effects

AbstractManipulative experiments show a decrease in dryland biological soil crust cover and altered species composition under climate change. However, the underlying mechanisms are not fully understood, and long-term interacting effects of different drivers are largely unknown due to the short-term nature of the studies conducted so far.We addressed this gap and successfully parameterized a process-based model for the biocrust-forming lichen Diploschistes diacapsis as a common and globally distributed representative of biocrust communities to quantify how changing atmospheric CO2, temperature, rainfall amount and relative humidity affect its photosynthetic activity and cover. We also mimicked a long-term manipulative climate change experiment to understand the mechanisms underlying observed patterns in the field.The model reproduced observed experimental findings: warming reduced lichen cover whereas less rainfall had no effect. This warming effect was caused by the associated decrease in relative humidity and non-rainfall water inputs as major water sources for lichens. Warming alone, however, increased cover because higher temperatures promoted photosynthesis during the cool morning hours with high lichen activity. When combined, climate variables showed non-additive effects on lichen cover, and fertilization effects of CO2 leveled off with decreasing levels of relative humidity.Synthesis. Our results show that a decrease in relative humidity, rather than an increase in temperature may be the key factor for the survival of dryland lichens under climate change and that CO2 fertilization effects might be offset by a reduction in non-rainfall water inputs in the future. Because of a global trend towards warmer and thus drier air, this will affect lichen-dominated dryland biocrust communities and their role in regulating ecosystem functions, worldwide.

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Interaction of climate change, potentially toxic elements (PTEs), and topography on plant diversity and ecosystem functions in a high-altitude mountainous region of the Tibetan Plateau

Chemosphere ◽

10.1016/j.chemosphere.2021.130099 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 130099

Author(s):

Jingzhao Lu ◽

Hongwei Lu ◽

Mark L. Brusseau ◽

Li He ◽

Alessandra Gorlier ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Tibetan Plateau ◽

High Altitude ◽

Plant Diversity ◽

Toxic Elements ◽

Potentially Toxic Elements ◽

Ecosystem Functions ◽

The Tibetan Plateau ◽

Mountainous Region

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A Contribution to the flora of Rajouri and Poonch districts in the Pir Panjal Himalaya (Jammu & Kashmir), India

Check List ◽

10.15560/10.2.317 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 10 (2) ◽

pp. 317 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Gh. Hassan Dar ◽

Akhtar H. Malik ◽

Anzar A. Khuroo

Keyword(s):

Plant Species ◽

Plant Diversity ◽

Vascular Plant ◽

Sustainable Use ◽

Scientific Data ◽

Current Paper ◽

Himalayan Region ◽

Plant Resources ◽

Jammu And Kashmir

The current paper provides a taxonomic inventory of the vascular plant species collected by the authors during the last two decades from the Rajouri and Poonch districts, located along the Pir Panjal range in the Indian Himalayan State of Jammu and Kashmir. The inventory records a total of 352 species, which belong to 270 genera in 83 families. Of the total taxa, the angiosperms are represented by 331 species in 253 genera and 77 families; gymnosperms by 12 species in 9 genera and 3 families; and pteridophytes by 9 species in 7 genera and 3 families. Asteraceae is the largest family, contributing 42 species; while Artemisia is the largest genus, with 5 species. The inventory is expected to provide baseline scientific data for further studies on plant diversity in these two border districts, and can be used to facilitate the long-term conservation and sustainable use of plant resources in this Himalayan region.

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Scavenging in the Anthropocene: Human impact drives vertebrate scavenger species richness at a global scale

10.26686/wgtn.12469334.v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

E Sebastián-González ◽

JM Barbosa ◽

JM Pérez-García ◽

Z Morales-Reyes ◽

F Botella ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Species Richness ◽

Human Impact ◽

Large Scale ◽

Diversity Index ◽

Global Scale ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Ecosystem Functions ◽

Number Of Species ◽

Terrestrial Vertebrate ◽

Latitudinal Patterns

© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd Understanding the distribution of biodiversity across the Earth is one of the most challenging questions in biology. Much research has been directed at explaining the species latitudinal pattern showing that communities are richer in tropical areas; however, despite decades of research, a general consensus has not yet emerged. In addition, global biodiversity patterns are being rapidly altered by human activities. Here, we aim to describe large-scale patterns of species richness and diversity in terrestrial vertebrate scavenger (carrion-consuming) assemblages, which provide key ecosystem functions and services. We used a worldwide dataset comprising 43 sites, where vertebrate scavenger assemblages were identified using 2,485 carcasses monitored between 1991 and 2018. First, we evaluated how scavenger richness (number of species) and diversity (Shannon diversity index) varied among seasons (cold vs. warm, wet vs. dry). Then, we studied the potential effects of human impact and a set of macroecological variables related to climatic conditions on the scavenger assemblages. Vertebrate scavenger richness ranged from species-poor to species rich assemblages (4–30 species). Both scavenger richness and diversity also showed some seasonal variation. However, in general, climatic variables did not drive latitudinal patterns, as scavenger richness and diversity were not affected by temperature or rainfall. Rainfall seasonality slightly increased the number of species in the community, but its effect was weak. Instead, the human impact index included in our study was the main predictor of scavenger richness. Scavenger assemblages in highly human-impacted areas sustained the smallest number of scavenger species, suggesting human activity may be overriding other macroecological processes in shaping scavenger communities. Our results highlight the effect of human impact at a global scale. As species-rich assemblages tend to be more functional, we warn about possible reductions in ecosystem functions and the services provided by scavengers in human-dominated landscapes in the Anthropocene.

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What can we learn from long-term groundwater data to improve climate change impact studies?

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/hessd-8-7621-2011 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 8 (4) ◽

pp. 7621-7655 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

S. Stoll ◽

H. J. Hendricks Franssen ◽

R. Barthel ◽

W. Kinzelbach

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Climate Change Impact ◽

Large Scale ◽

Climate Models ◽

Groundwater Resources ◽

Groundwater Dynamics ◽

Impact Studies ◽

Change Impact

Abstract. Future risks for groundwater resources, due to global change are usually analyzed by driving hydrological models with the outputs of climate models. However, this model chain is subject to considerable uncertainties. Given the high uncertainties it is essential to identify the processes governing the groundwater dynamics, as these processes are likely to affect groundwater resources in the future, too. Information about the dominant mechanisms can be achieved by the analysis of long-term data, which are assumed to provide insight in the reaction of groundwater resources to changing conditions (weather, land use, water demand). Referring to this, a dataset of 30 long-term time series of precipitation dominated groundwater systems in northern Switzerland and southern Germany is collected. In order to receive additional information the analysis of the data is carried out together with hydrological model simulations. High spatio-temporal correlations, even over large distances could be detected and are assumed to be related to large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. As a result it is suggested to prefer innovative weather-type-based downscaling methods to other stochastic downscaling approaches. In addition, with the help of a qualitative procedure to distinguish between meteorological and anthropogenic causes it was possible to identify processes which dominated the groundwater dynamics in the past. It could be shown that besides the meteorological conditions, land use changes, pumping activity and feedback mechanisms governed the groundwater dynamics. Based on these findings, recommendations to improve climate change impact studies are suggested.

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Analysis of climate change in Dnipropetrovsk Region

Ukrainian hydrometeorological journal ◽

10.31481/uhmj.20.2017.05 ◽

2017 ◽

pp. 43-51

Author(s):

V. V. Hrynchak

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Air Temperature ◽

Climate Changes ◽

Absolute Temperature ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Annual Precipitation ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Weather Observations ◽

Average Annual Temperature

The decision about writing this article was made after familiarization with the "Brief Climatic Essay of Dnepropetrovsk City (prepared based on observations of 1886 – 1937)" written by the Head of the Dnipropetrovsk Weather Department of the Hydrometeorological Service A. N. Mikhailov. The guide has a very interesting fate: in 1943 it was taken by the Nazis from Dnipropetrovsk and in 1948 it returned from Berlin back to the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological and Environmental Directorate of the USSR, as evidenced by a respective entry on the Essay's second page. Having these invaluable materials and data of long-term weather observations in Dnipro city we decided to analyze climate changes in Dnipropetrovsk region. The article presents two 50-year periods, 1886-1937 and 1961-2015, as examples. Series of observations have a uniform and representative character because they were conducted using the same methodology and results processing. We compared two main characteristics of climate: air temperature and precipitation. The article describes changes of average annual temperature values and absolute temperature values. It specifies the shift of seasons' dates and change of seasons' duration. We studied the changes of annual precipitation and peculiarities of their seasonable distribution. Apart from that peculiarities of monthly rainfall fluctuations and their heterogeneity were specified. Since Dnipro city is located in the center of the region the identified tendencies mainly reflect changes of climatic conditions within the entire Dnipropetrovsk region.

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