scholarly journals The Silent Pandemic COVID-19 in the Asymptomatic Population

Author(s):  
Robert L. Stout ◽  
Steven J. Rigatti

AbstractAs the COVID-19 pandemic continues to ravage the world there is a great need to understand the dynamics of spread. Currently the seroprevalence of asymptomatic COVID-19 doubles every 3 months, this silent epidemic of new infections may be the main driving force behind the rapid increase in SARS-CoV-2 cases.Public health official quickly recognized that clinical cases were just the tip of the iceberg. In fact a great deal of the spread was being driven by the asymptomatically infected who continued to go out, socialize and go to work. While seropositivity is an insensitive marker for acute infection it does tell us about the prevalence COVID-19 in the population.ObjectiveDescribe the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the United States over time.MethodologyRepeated convenience samples from a commercial laboratory dedicated to the assessment of life insurance applicants were tested for the presence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, in several time periods between May and December of 2020. US census data were used to estimate the population prevalence of seropositivity.ResultsThe raw seroprevalence in the May-June, September, and December timeframes were 3.0%, 6.6% and 10.4%, respectively. Higher rates were noted in younger vs. older age groups. Total estimated seroprevalence in the US is estimated at 25.7 million cases.ConclusionsThe seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 demonstrates a significantly larger pool of individuals who have contract COVID-19 and recovered, implying a lower case rate of hospitalizations and deaths than have been reported so far.

Author(s):  
Robert L. Stout ◽  
Steven J. Rigatti

AbstractAs the COVID-19 pandemic continues to ravage the world there is a great need to understand the dynamics of spread. Currently the seroprevalence of asymptomatic COVID-19 doubles every 3 months, this silent epidemic of new infections may be the main driving force behind the rapid increase in SARS-CoV-2 cases.Public health official quickly recognized that clinical cases were just the tip of the iceberg. In fact a great deal of the spread was being driven by the asymptomatically infected who continued to go out, socialize and go to work. While seropositivity is an insensitive marker for acute infection it does tell us about the prevalence COVID-19 in the population.ObjectiveDescribe the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the United States over time.MethodologyRepeated convenience samples from a commercial laboratory dedicated to the assessment of life insurance applicants were tested for the presence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, in several time periods between May and December of 2020. US census data were used to estimate the population prevalence of seropositivity.ResultsThe raw seroprevalence in the May-June, September, and December timeframes were 3.0%, 6.6% and 10.4%, respectively. Higher rates were noted in younger vs. older age groups. Total estimated seroprevalence in the US is estimated at 25.7 million cases.ConclusionsThe seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 demonstrates a significantly larger pool of individuals who have contract COVID-19 and recovered, implying a lower case rate of hospitalizations and deaths than have been reported so far.


2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mathew Hauer

Small area and subnational population projections are important for understanding long-term demographic changes. I provide county-level population projections by age, sex, and race in five-year intervals for the period 2015-2100 for all U.S. counties. Using historic U.S. census data in temporally rectified county boundaries and race groups for the period 1990-2015, I calculate cohort-change ratios (CCRs) and cohort-change differences (CCDs) for eighteen five-year age groups (0-85+), two sex groups (Male and Female), and four race groups (White NH, Black NH, Other NH, Hispanic) for all U.S counties. I then project these CCRs/CCDs using ARIMA models as inputs into Leslie matrix population projection models and control the projections to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. I validate the methods using ex-post facto evaluations using data from 1969-2000 to project 2000-2015. My results are reasonably accurate for this period. These data have numerous potential uses and can serve as inputs for addressing questions involving sub-national demographic change in the United States.


2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan Maassel ◽  
Abbie Saccary ◽  
Daniel Solomon ◽  
David Stitelman ◽  
Yunshan Xu ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Despite a national decrease in emergency department visits in the United States during the first 10 months of the pandemic, preliminary Consumer Product Safety Commission data indicate increased firework-related injuries. We hypothesized an increase in firework-related injuries during 2020 compared to years prior related to a corresponding increase in consumer firework sales. Methods The National Electronic Injury Surveillance System (NEISS) was queried from 2018 to 2020 for cases with product codes 1313 (firework injury) and narratives containing “fireworks”. Population-based national estimates were calculated using US Census data, then compared across the three years of study inclusion. Patient demographic and available injury information was also tracked and compared across the three years. Firework sales data obtained from the American Pyrotechnics Association were determined for the same time period to examine trends in consumption. Results There were 935 firework-related injuries reported to the NEISS from 2018 to 2020, 47% of which occurred during 2020. National estimates for monthly injuries per million were 1.6 times greater in 2020 compared to 2019 (p < 0.0001) with no difference between 2018 and 2019 (p = 0.38). The same results were found when the month of July was excluded. Firework consumption in 2020 was 1.5 times greater than 2019 or 2018, with a 55% increase in consumer fireworks and 22% decrease in professional fireworks sales. Conclusions Firework-related injures saw a substantial increase in 2020 compared to the two years prior, corroborated by a proportional increase in consumer firework sales. Increased incidence of firework-related injuries was detected even with the exclusion of the month of July, suggesting that the COVID-19 pandemic may have impacted firework epidemiology more broadly than US Independence Day celebrations.


1991 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 357-398 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael L. Cohen

ABSTRACTThe census is a social fact, the outcome of a process that involves the interaction of public laws and institutions and citizens' responses to an official inquiry. However, it is not a ‘hard’ fact. Reasons for inevitable defects in the census count are listed in the first section; the second section reports efforts by the US Census Bureau to identify sources of error in census coverage, and make estimates of the size of the errors. The use of census data for policy purposes, such as political representation and allocating funds, makes these defects controversial. Errors may be removed by making adjustments to the initial census count. However, because adjustment reallocates resources between groups, it has become the subject of political conflict. The paper describes the conflict between statistical practices, laws and public policy about census adjustment in the United States, and concludes by considering the extent to which causes in America are likely to be found in other countries.


2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 587-595 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carmen S Arriola ◽  
Lindsay Kim ◽  
Gayle Langley ◽  
Evan J Anderson ◽  
Kyle Openo ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of hospitalizations in young children. We estimated the burden of community-onset RSV-associated hospitalizations among US children aged &lt;2 years by extrapolating rates of RSV-confirmed hospitalizations in 4 surveillance states and using probabilistic multipliers to adjust for ascertainment biases. Methods From October 2014 through April 2015, clinician-ordered RSV tests identified laboratory-confirmed RSV hospitalizations among children aged &lt;2 years at 4 influenza hospitalization surveillance network sites. Surveillance populations were used to estimate age-specific rates of RSV-associated hospitalization, after adjusting for detection probabilities. We extrapolated these rates using US census data. Results We identified 1554 RSV-associated hospitalizations in children aged &lt;2 years. Of these, 27% were admitted to an intensive care unit, 6% needed mechanical ventilation, and 5 died. Most cases (1047/1554; 67%) had no underlying condition. Adjusted age-specific RSV hospitalization rates per 100 000 population were 1970 (95% confidence interval [CI],1787 to 2177), 897 (95% CI, 761 to 1073), 531 (95% CI, 459 to 624), and 358 (95% CI, 317 to 405) for ages 0–2, 3–5, 6–11, and 12–23 months, respectively. Extrapolating to the US population, an estimated 49 509–59 867 community-onset RSV-associated hospitalizations among children aged &lt;2 years occurred during the 2014–2015 season. Conclusions Our findings highlight the importance of RSV as a cause of hospitalization, especially among children aged &lt;2 months. Our approach to estimating RSV-related hospitalizations could be used to provide a US baseline for assessing the impact of future interventions.


Neurology ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 92 (10) ◽  
pp. e1029-e1040 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mitchell T. Wallin ◽  
William J. Culpepper ◽  
Jonathan D. Campbell ◽  
Lorene M. Nelson ◽  
Annette Langer-Gould ◽  
...  

ObjectiveTo generate a national multiple sclerosis (MS) prevalence estimate for the United States by applying a validated algorithm to multiple administrative health claims (AHC) datasets.MethodsA validated algorithm was applied to private, military, and public AHC datasets to identify adult cases of MS between 2008 and 2010. In each dataset, we determined the 3-year cumulative prevalence overall and stratified by age, sex, and census region. We applied insurance-specific and stratum-specific estimates to the 2010 US Census data and pooled the findings to calculate the 2010 prevalence of MS in the United States cumulated over 3 years. We also estimated the 2010 prevalence cumulated over 10 years using 2 models and extrapolated our estimate to 2017.ResultsThe estimated 2010 prevalence of MS in the US adult population cumulated over 10 years was 309.2 per 100,000 (95% confidence interval [CI] 308.1–310.1), representing 727,344 cases. During the same time period, the MS prevalence was 450.1 per 100,000 (95% CI 448.1–451.6) for women and 159.7 (95% CI 158.7–160.6) for men (female:male ratio 2.8). The estimated 2010 prevalence of MS was highest in the 55- to 64-year age group. A US north-south decreasing prevalence gradient was identified. The estimated MS prevalence is also presented for 2017.ConclusionThe estimated US national MS prevalence for 2010 is the highest reported to date and provides evidence that the north-south gradient persists. Our rigorous algorithm-based approach to estimating prevalence is efficient and has the potential to be used for other chronic neurologic conditions.


Neurology ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 95 (16) ◽  
pp. e2200-e2213 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fadar Oliver Otite ◽  
Smit Patel ◽  
Richa Sharma ◽  
Pushti Khandwala ◽  
Devashish Desai ◽  
...  

ObjectiveTo test the hypothesis that race-, age-, and sex-specific incidence of cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) has increased in the United States over the last decade.MethodsIn this retrospective cohort study, validated ICD codes were used to identify all new cases of CVT (n = 5,567) in the State Inpatients Databases (SIDs) of New York and Florida (2006–2016). A new CVT case was defined as first hospitalization for CVT in the SID without prior CVT hospitalization. CVT counts were combined with annual Census data to compute incidence. Joinpoint regression was used to evaluate trends in incidence over time.ResultsFrom 2006 to 2016, annual age- and sex-standardized incidence of CVT in cases per 1 million population ranged from 13.9 to 20.2, but incidence varied significantly by sex (women 20.3–26.9, men 6.8–16.8) and by age/sex (women 18–44 years of age 24.0–32.6, men 18–44 years of age 5.3–12.8). Incidence also differed by race (Blacks: 18.6–27.2; Whites: 14.3–18.5; Asians: 5.1–13.8). On joinpoint regression, incidence increased across 2006 to 2016, but most of this increase was driven by an increase in all age groups of men (combined annualized percentage change [APC] 9.2%, p < 0.001), women 45 to 64 years of age (APC 7.8%, p < 0.001), and women ≥65 years of age (APC 7.4%, p < 0.001). Incidence in women 18 to 44 years of age remained unchanged over time.ConclusionCVT incidence is disproportionately higher in Blacks compared to other races. New CVT hospitalizations increased significantly over the last decade mainly in men and older women. Further studies are needed to determine whether this increase represents a true increase from changing risk factors or an artifactual increase from improved detection.


Author(s):  
Ken Smith ◽  
Alison Fraser

IntroductionThe availability of historic, individual-level census records in the United States has grown in recent years. With access to identifiers, it is possible to link these records to existing databases. The performance of and strategy for these linking efforts is not well characterized. Objectives and ApproachThe Utah Population Database (UPDB), launched in 1975, is a population registry comprising comprehensive data from genealogies, medical/vital records, and numerous administrative and demographic records spanning the past two centuries. UPDB initially did not hold individual-level US Census records until now. UPDB has massive volumes of identifiers that we have cleaned and it therefore represents a “gold standard” representation of Utah’s population. The objective here is to describe the methods used and the record linking performance applied to census records that we have linked to the UPDB for persons appearing in the 1880, 1900, 1910, 1920, 1930 and 1940 censuses. ResultsWe collaborated with FamilyTree, Ancestry, and IPUMS (University of Minnesota) for keying and preparing data from the 1880-1940 censuses.  We then linked these records to the UPDB using probabilistic record linking methods and manual review.   Linking rates by census year varied by the quality of records and electronic data capture and by specific Census fields for a given census.  Data quality was somewhat lower for the 1910 and 1940 censuses and hence they had lower linking rates (66.9% and 70.4, respectively). Household heads enjoyed higher linking rates (72% was the lowest, in 1940). We used household heads to help guide links to offspring and spouses whose linking rates exceeded 75% in general.  Non-family members and single men linked at much lower rates (<50%). Conclusion/ImplicationsThis study found that linking census records to an existing population registry is feasible and with relative success. Using household/genealogy structure of the census is useful when linking to the genealogies in the UPDB. These links allow studies of effects of early life conditions on later life outcomes.


Circulation ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 143 (Suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Junxiu Liu ◽  
Stella S Yi ◽  
Rienna Russo ◽  
Victoria Mayer ◽  
Yan Li

Introduction: Diabetes (DM) increases cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality and the risk of severe complications/death among patients with COVID-19. We aimed to estimate the trends of DM over time among adults in the US. Hypothesis: We anticipated an increase in DM and persistent disparities by racial/ethnic and socioecnomic subgroups from 1999 to 2018. Methods: Data were from a nationally representative sample of US adults (≥20 years; NHANES 1999-2018). Diagnosed DM was defined as a self-reported previous diagnosis of DM by a physician or any other health professionals (other than during pregnancy). Undiagnosed DM was defined as elevated levels of fasting plasma glucose (FPG≥126 mg/dL) or HbA1c (≥6.5%). Total DM included those who had either diagnosed or undiagnosed diabetes. Prediabetes was defined as no DM but a HbA1c level of 5.7% - 6.4% or an FPG level of 100 mg/dL-125 mg/dL. All estimates were age-standardized to the 2010 US census population for age groups 20-44, 45-64, and 65+ years. All analyses accounted for the complex survey design. Logistic regressions were conducted to calculate a P-value for trend. Results: Our sample included 53,533 US adults. From 1999 to 2018, the age-adjusted prevalence of total DM increased significantly from 9.05% (95% CI, 7.80%-10.2%) to 13.9% (95% CI, 12.5%-15.4%) and the prevalence of prediabetes increased from 22.5% (20%-25.2%) to 40.2% (37.4%-43.1%) (P-trends<0.001). The rate of increase in prevalence was higher among Mexican Americans but lower among non-Hispanic black individuals compared to non-Hispanic white individuals (all P-trends<0.01, P-interaction=0.003). Trends in total DM by education and income levels were similar to the overall trend but disparities persisted between low- and high-socioeconomic groups (all P-trends<0.001, P-interaction>0.05) ( Figure 1 ). Conclusions: The prevalence of DM increased significantly from 1999 to 2018 among US adults. There are substantial and persistent disparities between racial/ethnic and socioeconomic subgroups.


Blood ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 130 (Suppl_1) ◽  
pp. 865-865
Author(s):  
Amanda B. Payne ◽  
Jason M. Mehal ◽  
Christina Chapman ◽  
Dana L. Haberling ◽  
Lisa C. Richardson ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: Sickle cell disease (SCD)-related mortality is a significant cause of mortality among Blacks in the United States. Several clinical interventions, such as penicillin prophylaxis, vaccination, and hydroxyurea, have decreased SCD-related mortality over time. This report investigates changes in the causes of death (COD) associated with SCD-related mortality over time and among age groups and compares SCD-related deaths to non-SCD-related deaths to identify changes in the burden of specific COD in order to inform future public health improvement efforts. Methods: SCD-related deaths were examined using the 1979-2014 US multiple COD mortality data. SCD-related deaths were identified as deaths for which an International Classification of Disease 9th revision (ICD-9) or ICD-10 code for SCD (282.6 for ICD-9; D57.0, D57.1, D57.2, D57.8 for ICD-10) was listed anywhere on the death record. Age-specific annual and average annual SCD-related death rates were calculated as the number of deaths per 100,000 corresponding population, with the bridged-race intercensal estimates of the US resident population as the denominator. Because death from SCD is a rare event in races other than Black, the analysis focused on decedents of Black race. Underlying and contributing COD codes were categorized according to their ICD-9 or ICD-10 codes into 20 groups relevant to SCD outcomes, including acute infection complications, cerebrovascular complications, splenic complications, and renal complications. To compare SCD-related deaths to non-SCD deaths, death records not listing an ICD-9 or ICD-10 code for SCD were randomly selected in a 1:1 ratio; non-SCD deaths were matched to SCD deaths by race, sex, age group, year of death, and region of residence. Results: From 1979-2014 there were 23,226 SCD-related deaths reported in the US. The median age at death increased from 28 years in 1979 to 43 years in 2014. The SCD-related average annual death rate trends shifted by time period across various age groups. The average annual SCD-related death rate among children &lt;5 years of age declined from 2.05/100,000 in 1979-1989 to 0.35/100,000 in 2011-2014 (p&lt;.0001). Conversely, the rate among adults ≥60 years of age increased from 1.20/100,000 in 1979-1989 to 1.69/100,000 in 2000-2014 (p&lt;0.0001). Changes in the frequency of various underlying and contributing COD among SCD-related deaths reflects the success of clinical interventions. During the first time period (1979-1989) acute cardiac and infection complications were the most common underlying and contributing COD. In contrast, chronic cardiac complications was most commonly listed as the underlying or contributing COD during the last time period (2010-2014) (Figure 1). The underlying and contributing COD listed among SCD-related deaths also differed by age group (Figure 2). The most common COD among deaths occurring at &lt;5 years of age was acute infection. The most common COD among deaths occurring at ≥60 years of age was cardiac complications. While clinical interventions have shown effect, compared to non-SCD-related deaths, SCD-related deaths remained more likely to be related to COD, such as acute infections, cerebrovascular complications, and renal complications (Figure 3). Conclusions: While utilizing death certificate data alone may misclassify some deaths, the utilization of national data allows the assessment of trends in mortality over several decades and provides information regarding SCD-related mortality trends nationwide. The data presented indicate interventions to prevent acute complications of SCD appear effective during the study period. More research regarding prevention and treatment of chronic complications of SCD is necessary, as persons with SCD are living longer and are more likely to die of chronic complications of their disease. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.


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