scholarly journals Potential contribution of climate conditions on COVID-19 pandemic transmission over West and North African countries

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ibrahima Diouf ◽  
Souleymane Sy ◽  
Habib Senghor ◽  
Papa Fall ◽  
Diarra Diouf ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Control Measures ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
World Health ◽  
Potential Contribution ◽  
Gulf Of Guinea ◽  
The European Union ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
The World ◽  
And Control

AbstractThe COVID-19 disease, caused by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is a very contagious disease that has killed many people around the world. According to the World Health Organization (WHO) data, the spread of the disease appears to be slower in Africa. Although a number of studies have been published on the relationship between meteorological parameters and COVID-19 transmission, the effects of climate conditions on COVID-19 remain largely unexplored and without consensus following the main research finding over Africa (often based on a single country or city). Here, using available epidemiological data over 275 days (i.e., from March 1 to November 30, 2020) taken from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control of the European Union database and daily data of surface air temperature and humidity from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), this paper investigates the potential contributions of climate conditions on COVID-19 transmission over 16 countries selected from three bioclimatic regions of Africa (i.e., Sahel, Maghreb and Gulf of Guinea). On average, our main findings highlight statistically significant inverse correlations between COVID-19 cases and temperature over the Maghreb and the Gulf of Guinea regions, whereas positive correlations are found in the Sahel, especially over the central part including Niger and Mali. Correlations with specific humidity and water vapor parameters display significant and positive values over the Sahelian and the Gulf of Guinean countries and negative values over the Maghreb countries. In other word, results imply that the COVID-19 pandemic transmission is influenced differently across the three bioclimatic regions: i) cold and dry environmental conditions over the Maghreb; ii) warm and humid conditions over the Sahel iii) cold and humid conditions over the Gulf of Guinea. These findings could be useful for decision-makers who plan public health and control measures in affected African countries and would have substantial implications for directing respiratory disease surveillance activities.

scholarly journals Potential Contribution of Climate Conditions on COVID-19 Pandemic Transmission over West and North African Countries

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 34
Author(s):  
Ibrahima Diouf ◽  
Souleymane Sy ◽  
Habib Senghor ◽  
Papa Fall ◽  
Diarra Diouf ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
World Health ◽  
Potential Contribution ◽  
Gulf Of Guinea ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Climatic Regions

COVID-19, caused by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is a very contagious disease that has killed many people worldwide. According to data from the World Health Organization (WHO), the spread of the disease appears to be slower in Africa. Although several studies have been published on the relationship between meteorological parameters and COVID-19 transmission, the effects of climate conditions on COVID-19 remain largely unexplored and without consensus. However, the transmission of COVID-19 and sensitivity to climate conditions are also not fully understood in Africa. Here, using available epidemiological data over 275 days (i.e., from 1 March to 30 November 2020) taken from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control of the European Union database and daily data of surface air temperature specific humidity and water vapor from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), this paper investigates the potential contribution of climate conditions on COVID-19 transmission over 16 selected countries throughout three climatic regions of Africa (i.e., Sahel, Maghreb, and Gulf of Guinea). The results highlight statistically significant inverse correlations between COVID-19 cases and temperature over the Maghreb and the Gulf of Guinea regions. In contrast, positive correlations are found over the Sahel area, especially in the central part, including Niger and Mali. Correlations with specific humidity and water vapor parameters display significant and positive values over the Sahelian and the Gulf of Guinea countries and negative values over the Maghreb countries. Then, the COVID-19 pandemic transmission is influenced differently across the three climatic regions: (i) cold and dry environmental conditions over the Maghreb; (ii) warm and humid conditions over the Sahel; and (iii) cold and humid conditions over the Gulf of Guinea. In addition, for all three climatic regions, even though the climate impact has been found to be significant, its effect appears to display a secondary role based on the explanatory power variance compared to non-climatic factors assumed to be dominated by socio-economic factors and early strong public health measures.

scholarly journals Community grid management is an important measure to contain the spread of novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19)

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chen Ling ◽  
Xianjie Wen
Keyword(s):  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Source Of Infection ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
And Control ◽  
Grid Management

Abstract The outbreak of novel coronavirus pneumonia (coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)), declared as a ‘global pandemic’ by the World Health Organization (WHO), is a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC). The outbreak in multiple locations shows a trend of accelerating spread around the world. China has taken a series of powerful measures to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, in addition to actively finding effective treatment drugs and developing vaccines, it is more important to identify the source of infection at the community level as soon as possible to block the transmission path of the virus to prevent the spread of the pandemic. The implementation of grid management in the community and the adoption of precise management and control measures to reduce unnecessary personnel movement can effectively reduce the risk of pandemic spread. This paper mainly describes that the grid management mode can promote the refinement and comprehensiveness of community management. As a management system with potential to improve the governance ability of community affairs, it may be helpful to strengthen the prevention and control of the epidemic in the community.

scholarly journals COVID-19 outbreak and control in Kenya- Insights from a mathematical model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel Waema Mbogo ◽  
Titus Okello Orwa
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Capital City ◽  
World Health ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Global Public Health ◽  
The World ◽  
Rate Of Recovery ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
And Control

Abstract The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic reached Kenya in March 2020 with the initial cases reported in the capital city Nairobi and in the coastal area Mombasa. As reported by the World Health Organization, the outbreak of COVID-19 has spread across the world, killed many, collapsed economies and changed the way people live since it was first reported in Wuhan, China, in the end of 2019. As of May 25,2020 It had led to over 100,000 confirmed cases in Africa with over 3000 deaths. The trend poses a huge threat to global public health. Understanding the early transmission dynamics of the infection and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures is crucial for assessing the potential for sustained transmission to occur in new areas.We employed a SEIHCRD mathematical transmission model with reported Kenyan data on cases of COVID-19 to estimate how transmission varies over time. The model is concise in structure, and successfully captures the course of the COVID-19 outbreak, and thus sheds light on understanding the trends of the outbreak. The next generation matrix approach was adopted to calculate the basic reproduction number (R0) from the model to assess the factors driving the infection . The results from the model analysis shows that non-pharmaceutical interventions over a relatively long period is needed to effectively get rid of the COVID-19 epidemic otherwise the rate of infection will continue to increase despite the increased rate of recovery.

scholarly journals Repercussions of the COVID-19 Health Crisis In the Peruvian Informal Sector

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Vilma Andia-Choquepuma ◽  
Daniza Juana Leon-Escobedo ◽  
Himer Avila-George ◽  
orge Sánchez-Garcés ◽  
Ruth Elizabeth Villafuerte-Alcántara ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Entry Points ◽  
The World ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
And Control

After the World Health Organization declared the outbreak of Coronavirus (COVID-19) a pandemic, the Peruvian government took preventive measures to counteract the spread of the virus by issuing Supreme Decree No. 008-2020-SA. This decree contains prevention and control measures aimed at ports, airports, land entry points, educational centers, transportation and workplaces.

scholarly journals Improving COVID-19 response: redirecting risk communication efforts towards equity issues

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
pp. 3-8
Author(s):  
Yisel Hernández Barrios ◽  
Luis Fonte Galindo ◽  
María del Carmen Zabala Argüelles ◽  
Dennis Pérez Chacón
Keyword(s):  
Health Problem ◽  
Social Communication ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
Equity Issues ◽  
The World ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
And Control

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is, to date, the health problem with the highest impact in the 21st century. The World Health Organization has recommended several prevention and control measures to deal with this pandemic. In this context, social communication plays a key role. In this article we argue that the potential of communication efforts to close the gaps in the COVID-19 response worldwide won´t be fully accomplished until they do address equity-related issues.

scholarly journals COVID-19 outbreak and control in Kenya- Insights from a mathematical model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel Waema Mbogo ◽  
Titus Okello Orwa
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Capital City ◽  
World Health ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Global Public Health ◽  
The World ◽  
Rate Of Recovery ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
And Control

Abstract The coronavirus disease 2019 ( COVID -19) pandemic reached Kenya in March 2020 with the initial cases reported in the capital city Nairobi and in the coastal area Mombasa. As reported by the World Health Organization, the outbreak of COVID -19 has spread across the world, killed many, collapsed economies and changed the way people live since it was first reported in Wuhan, China, in the end of 2019. As of May 25,2020 It had led to over 100,000 confirmed cases in Africa with over 3000 deaths. The trend poses a huge threat to global public health. Understanding the early transmission dynamics of the infection and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures is crucial for assessing the potential for sustained transmission to occur in new areas. We employed a SEIHCRD mathematical transmission model with reported Kenyan data on cases of COVID -19 to estimate how transmission varies over time. The model is concise in structure, and successfully captures the course of the COVID -19 outbreak, and thus sheds light on understanding the trends of the outbreak. The next generation matrix approach was adopted to calculate the basic reproduction number ( $R_0$ ) from the model to assess the factors driving the infection . The results from the model analysis shows that non-pharmaceutical interventions over a relatively long period is needed to effectively get rid of the COVID -19 epidemic otherwise the rate of infection will continue to increase despite the increased rate of recovery.

scholarly journals COVID-19: Modeling, Prediction, and Control

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 3666 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad Bani Younes ◽  
Zeaid Hasan
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
Volterra Model ◽  
The World ◽  
Prediction And Control ◽  
Modeling Prediction ◽  
Prime Objective ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
And Control

The newly emerging severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), also known as COVID-19, has been recognized as a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) on 11th March 2020. There are many unknowns about this virus to date and no vaccine or conclusive treatment due to the lack of understanding of its pathogenesis and proliferation pathways which are unknown and cannot be traced. The prime objective is to stop its spread worldwide. This article aims to provide predictions of its spread using a stochastic Lotka–Volterra model coupled with an extended Kalman Filter (EKF) algorithm to model the COVID-19 dynamics. Our results show the feasibility of utilizing this model for predicting the spread of the virus and the ability of different control measures (e.g., social distancing) on reducing the number of affected people.

scholarly journals SARS-CoV-2: A critical review of preventive and control measures in the context of the virus’ characteristics

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-39
Author(s):  
Manca Alič ◽  
Andrej Ovca
Keyword(s):  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Cleaning And Disinfection ◽  
And Control

Abstract The year 2020 has been marked by the novel coronavirus, named Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which causes coronavirus disease COVID-19. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared a global pandemic on the 11th of March 2020 due to the spread of this very contagious virus throughout the world. Since the outbreak, we have gained many insights about the virus, its presence and persistence in the environment and its possible and most common transmission routes. Such knowledge about the virus is invaluable for establishing effective preventive and control measures (also referred to as Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs)) that have become a key to tackling this pandemic in the absence of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. In this review, we discuss five main groups of NPIs: 1) ventilation, 2) cleaning and disinfection, 3) hand hygiene, 4) physical distancing, and 5) protective masks. We explore their shortcomings and potential negative consequences that might occur as unwanted side effects.

scholarly journals A review of the management and safe handling of bodies in cases involving COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 60 (4) ◽  
pp. 287-293 ◽  
Author(s):  
Smitha Rani
Keyword(s):  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Infection Prevention And Control ◽  
Causative Organism ◽  
The World ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
And Control

Wuhan Municipal Health Commission, China, reported a cluster of cases of ‘pneumonia of unknown aetiology’ in Wuhan, Hubei province in late 2019. The causative organism was eventually identified as a novel coronavirus. Subsequently, the disease spread to more provinces in China, then the rest of the world, and the World Health Organization declared it a pandemic. The virus was named Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and the disease was termed COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease). Since then, an increasing number of people have succumbed to this infectious disease. High contagiousness and rapid spread of the disease has been a matter of concern, as it may overburden healthcare systems. Hence, it is vital to implement strict infection prevention and control measures to curb the spread of the disease. This article reviews the guidelines available for the handling of bodies of deceased persons with suspected or confirmed COVID-19, and for their safe disposal. It also provides a summary of recommendations for conducting autopsies in cases where COVID-19 is suspected.

scholarly journals Forecasting and Analysis of Time Variation of Parameters of COVID-19 Infection in China Using An Improved SEIR Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guoping Zhang ◽  
Huaji Pang ◽  
Yifei Xue ◽  
Yu Zhou ◽  
Ruliang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Cure Rate ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control

Abstract Background: Due to the emergency pandemic threat, the COVID-19 has attracted widespread attention around the world. Common symptoms of infection were fever, cough, and myalgia fatigue. On January 31, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declares this outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC).Methods: In order to study the spread of the novel coronavirus pneumonia, this paper proposed an improved SEIR model to simulate the spread of the virus, which includes the effect factor of government intervention. The model parameters are determined based on the daily reported statistical data (up to February 8) of confirmed, suspected, cured, and death. According to utilize the spread rate, the probability of infection of the suspected, the probability of the suspected becoming a confirmed one, the cure rate, the mortality rate, and the quarantine ratio, we performed simulations and parameter calibrations at three region levels, i.e., China, Hubei and non-Hubei respectively. In addition, considering that the government initiated effective prevention and control measures after the outbreak, this paper dynamically estimates all the parameters of the proposed model.Results: The simulation reveals that the parameters of non-Hubei region are not significantly different from Hubei’s. Hubei Province has a high transmission rate, low cure rate, high probability of infection, low effective quarantine rate. since January 31, with the continuous strengthening of epidemic prevention and control measures, all parameters of the model have changed significantly. The parameters of Hubei and non-Hubei regions have the same trend. The trend of all parameters is now moving in a direction that is conducive to reducing the number of confirmed, suspected and fatal cases.Conclusions: The number of infections of the virus initially showed a rapid increase in the trend, and the number of infectious case showed a clear downward shape. With the government to take a variety of prevention and control measures and the efforts of the general medical staff, the number of infection curve on February 22 appeared in the top of the arc pattern, indicating that the inflection point began to appear, but the decline in the number of infections slowly.

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