scholarly journals Growth Functions as a tool to model SARS-CoV-2 pandemic trajectory and related-deaths worldwide

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vagner Fonseca ◽  
Edson Mascarenhas ◽  
Paulo Ramos ◽  
Leandro Coelho ◽  
Diego Frias
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Logistic Function ◽  
Important Place ◽  
Growth Functions ◽  
Quantitative Metrics ◽  
Richards Function ◽  
Long Term Forecasting ◽  
Epidemic Wave

AbstractThe international scientific community from different areas of knowledge has made efforts to provide information and methods that contribute to the adoption of the most appropriate measures to curb the spread of the COVID-19 disease. In particular, the data analysis community has been very active in publishing a large number of papers. A good part of them is related to the prediction of epidemic variables (number of cases and deaths) in different time horizons. To solve the problem of the prediction of COVID-19, an important place is occupied by the sigmoidal growth functions, as they have often been used successfully in previous epidemic outbreaks. The objective of this work was to investigate, on a statistical basis, the ability of classical growth functions to model the data from the COVID-19 pandemic. But for that, it was necessary to establish a clear classification of the 5 types of problems that can be faced with data analysis techniques in this specific context and to define a methodology based on quantitative metrics to measure the performance in solving these different types of problems. The basic concept used was that of an epidemic wave consisting of an initial-increasing and a final-decreasing phase. A classification of the COVID-19 waves in 4 types was done based on mining data from all available countries. Thus, it was possible to determine the resolvability of each type of problem depending on the stage of the epidemic wave. The biggest conclusion was the impossibility of solving the long-term forecasting problems (problem 5 – to estimate the total value of an epidemic wave) with data from the first phase only. Using this theoretical-methodological framework, we evaluated, using metrics specifically designed for these types of problems, the performance of 3 classic growth functions: Logistics, Gompertz and Richards (a generalization of the previous two) in 2 types of problems: (1) Description of the trajectory of the epidemic and (2) Prediction of the total numbers of cases and deaths. We used data from 10 countries, 7 of them with more than 100 daily deaths on the peak day. The results show a generalized underperformance of the logistic function in all aspects and place the Gompertz function as the best cost-benefit alternative, as it has performance comparable to the Richards function, but it has one less parameter to be adjusted, in the process of regression of the model to the observed data.

Program Fajar Indah Sebagai Media Dakwah dalam Meningkatkan Pemahaman Keagamaan Masyarakat

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-38
Author(s):  
FAISAL AKBAR ◽  
Syamsuddin RS ◽  
Dadan Anugrah
Keyword(s):  
Qualitative Research ◽  
Data Analysis ◽  
Data Collection ◽  
Islamic Law ◽  
Public Trust ◽  
Broadcast Communication ◽  
Lecture Method ◽  
Radio Broadcast ◽  
Religious Understanding

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui metode Program Fajar Indah yang ada di Radio Citra Progo dalam meningkatkan pemahaman keagamaan masyarakat, mengetahui klasifikasi da’i pengisi program Fajar Indah, serta pesan dakwah dari program Fajar Indah. Penelitian ini menggunakan penelitian kualitatif dengan metode deskriptif. Pengumpulan data dalam penelitian ini menggunakan teknik observasi, wawancara dan dokumentasi. Analisis data digunakan penafsiran logika yang dihubungkan dengan konteks Komunikasi Penyiaran Islam. Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa Radio Citra Progo dalam program Fajar Indah menggunakan metode ceramah dengan pembawaan da’i yang santai ketika siaran. Adapun klasifikasi da’i dalam siaran dakwah ini, dapat dilihat dari wawasan keilmuan penyiar dalam menguasai Al Quran dan Hadist sebagai sumber hukum Islam dan kedisiplinan untuk menjalankan tugas sebagai da’i penyiar radio. Dalam siaran Program Fajar Indah terdapat pesan dakwah berupa materi Aqidah untuk meningkatkan kepercayaan masyarakat kepada Allah, mengimani rukun Iman dan rukun Islam, serta materi Akhlak yang diperintahkan oleh Allah dan dicontohkan oleh Nabi Muhammad SAW, materi Ibadah yang menyampaikan tatacara beribadah kepada Allah meliputi hukum pernikahan, hukum bertetangga, shodaqoh, sholat, puasa dan menyampaikan materi tentang hari-hari besar umat Islam. This study aims to determine the methods of the Beautiful Fajar Program on Radio Citra Progo in improving people's religious understanding, knowing the classification of preachers for the Fajar Indah program, and preaching messages from the Fajar Indah program. This study uses qualitative research with descriptive methods. Data collection in this study uses observation, interview and documentation techniques. Data analysis used the interpretation of logic connected with the context of Islamic Broadcast Communication. The results showed that Citra Progo Radio in the Fajar Indah program used a lecture method with a relaxed nature when broadcasting. The da'i classification in this da'wah broadcast, can be seen from the broadcaster's scientific insights in mastering the Qur'an and Hadith as a source of Islamic law and discipline to carry out their duties as radio broadcast preachers. In the broadcast of the Fajar Indah Program there is a da'wah message in the form of Aqeedah material to increase public trust in God, faith in the pillars of faith and pillars of Islam, as well as moral material ordered by God and exemplified by the Prophet Muhammad, the material of worship which conveys the procedure of worship to God including marriage law , neighborly law, shodaqoh, prayer, fasting and delivering material about the Muslim holidays.

Classification of diseases of the gastrointestinal tract in the practice of a family doctor

2021 ◽  
pp. 8-13
Author(s):  
Aleksey Borisovich Petrukhin
Keyword(s):  
Gastrointestinal Tract ◽  
Digestive System ◽  
Family Doctor ◽  
The Body ◽  
Internal Organs ◽  
Important Place ◽  
High Prevalence ◽  
Classification Of Diseases ◽  
Diagnosis Of Diseases

Gastroenterology belongs to one of the leading branches of therapy. In the structure of diseases of the internal organs, diseases of the digestive system occupy a particularly important place due to their high prevalence, which increases with age. As a rule, these diseases have a chronic, progressive, recurrent course, which ultimately leads to severe disorders of the activity of many organs and systems of the body. The article presents the basic requirements for the formation of a clinical diagnosis of diseases of the gastrointestinal tract, which are most common in the practice of a family doctor.

scholarly journals Surface matters: limitations of CALIPSO V3 aerosol typing in coastal regions

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (7) ◽  
pp. 2061-2072 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Kanitz ◽  
A. Ansmann ◽  
A. Foth ◽  
P. Seifert ◽  
U. Wandinger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Important Input ◽  
High Fraction ◽  
Ground Based Lidar

Abstract. In the CALIPSO data analysis, surface type (land/ocean) is used to augment the aerosol characterization. However, this surface-dependent aerosol typing prohibits a correct classification of marine aerosol over land that is advected from ocean to land. This might result in a systematic overestimation of the particle extinction coefficient and of the aerosol optical thickness (AOT) of up to a factor of 3.5 over land in coastal areas. We present a long-term comparison of CALIPSO and ground-based lidar observations of the aerosol conditions in the coastal environment of southern South America (Punta Arenas, Chile, 53° S), performed in December 2009–April 2010. Punta Arenas is almost entirely influenced by marine particles throughout the year, indicated by a rather low AOT of 0.02–0.04. However, we found an unexpectedly high fraction of continental aerosol in the aerosol types inferred by means of CALIOP observations and, correspondingly, too high values of particle extinction. Similar features of the CALIOP data analysis are presented for four other coastal areas around the world. Since CALIOP data serve as important input for global climate models, the influence of this systematic error was estimated by means of simplified radiative-transfer calculations.

scholarly journals PENGGUNAAN ISTILAH ASING PADA SURAT KABAR CETAK DI PROVINSI BANTEN

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 151
Author(s):  
Anitawati Bachtiar
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Mass Media ◽  
Standard Form ◽  
Equivalent Form ◽  
Data Interpretation ◽  
Ministry Of Education ◽  
National Agency ◽  
School Based ◽  
The Press

According to Law No. 40 of 1999 concerning mass media, press has the function to educate. Moreover, according to Alwi (2011: viii) the language used by the press has more influence than the language used by teachers in school. Based on that, the mass media has an obligation to promote Indonesian language properly and correctly. Proper Indonesian is to use the language in accordance with the communication situation, while using Indonesian correctly is using language in accordance with the rules. The suitability of the rules based on the guidelines recognized and published by the Ministry of Education and Culture’s National Agency for Language Development and Books, namely the General Guidelines for Indonesian Spelling and Indonesian Language, Foreign Language Guidelines and the Large Indonesian Dictionary. This research sought to examine the use of foreign terms in four printed newspaper in Banten Province, namely Radar Banten, Banten News, Banten Post, and Banten Raya which were published in July 2018 with 23 headline news articles. This research employed descriptive qualitative method with data analysis steps, namely (1) listening; (2) identification and classification of data based on the use of foreign terms found; (3) data interpretation; and (4) making conclusions. Based on the results of data analysis, it is found that there are twenty-five (25) data of foreign terms that have been absorped or translated but are not written in the equivalent form or translation. There are also fifteen (15) data that indicate errors in writing based on the standard form of foreign terms that have Indonesian word equivalents and four (4) data that do not have word equivalents but their writing are not in accordance with the guidelines, which must be underlined or italized

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document