Body mass index and subfertility: multivariable regression and Mendelian randomization analyses in the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study
Background. Higher body mass index (BMI) is associated with subfertility in women and men. This relationship is further substantiated by a few small randomized-controlled trials of weight reduction and success of assisted reproduction. The aim of the current study was to expand the current evidence-base by investigating the association between BMI and subfertility in men and women using multivariable regression and Mendelian randomization. Methods and findings. We studied 34,157 women (average age 30, average BMI 23.1 kg/m2) and 31,496 men (average age 33, average BMI 25.4 kg/m2) who were genotyped and are participating in the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study. Self-reported information was available on time-to-pregnancy and BMI. A total of 10% of couples were subfertile (time-to-pregnancy ≥12 months). Our findings support a J-shaped association between BMI and subfertility in both sexes using multivariable logistic regression models. Non-linear Mendelian randomization validated this relationship. A 1 kg/m2 greater genetically predicted BMI was linked to 15% greater odds of subfertility (95% confidence interval 4% to 28%) in obese women (>=30.0 kg/m2) and 14% lower odds of subfertility (-25% to -3%) in women with BMI <20.0 kg/m2. A 1 kg/m2 higher genetically predicted BMI was linked to 23% greater odds of subfertility (6% to 43%) among obese men and 36% decreased odds (-62% to 7%) among men BMI <20.0 kg/m2. A genetically predicted BMI of 23 and 25 kg/m2 was linked to the lowest subfertility risk in women and men, respectively. The main limitations of our study were that we did not know whether the subfertility was driven by the woman, man, or both; the exclusive consideration of individuals of northern European ancestry; and the limited amount of participants with obesity or BMI values <20.0 kg/m2. Conclusions. We observed a J-shaped relationship between BMI and subfertility in both sexes, when using both a standard multivariable regression and Mendelian randomization analysis, further supporting a potential causal role of BMI on subfertility.