scholarly journals On the effectiveness of COVID-19 restrictions and lockdowns: Pan metron ariston

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonidas Spiliopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rates ◽  
Structural Model ◽  
Behavioral Changes ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Household Transmission ◽  
Country Characteristics ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
Policy Mixes ◽  
The Impact

I examine the dynamics of confirmed case (and death) growth rates conditional on different levels of severity in implemented NPIs, the mobility of citizens and other non restrictive policies. To account for the endogeneity of many of these variables, and the possibility of correlated latent (unobservable) country characteristics, I estimate a four structural model of the evolution of case growth rates, death growth rates, average changes in mobility and the determination of the severity of NPIs. There are strongly decreasing returns to the stringency of NPIs, especially for extreme lockdowns, as no significant improvement in the main outcome measures is found beyond NPIs corresponding to a Stringency Index range of 51-60 for cases and 41-50 for deaths. A non-restrictive policy of extensive and open testing has half of the impact on pandemic dynamics as the optimal NPIs, with none of the associated social and economic costs resulting from the latter. Decreases in mobility were found to increase, rather than decrease case growth rates, consistent with arguments that within-household transmission, resulting from spending more time at residences due to mobility restrictions, may outweigh the benefits of reduced community transmission. Vaccinations led to a fall in case and death growth rates, however the effect size must be re-evaluated when more data becomes available. Governments conditioned policy choice on recent pandemic dynamics, and were found to de-escalate the associated stringency of implemented NPIs more cautiously than in their escalation, i.e., policy mixes exhibited significant hysteresis. Finally, at least 90% of the maximum effectiveness of NPIs can be achieved by policies with an average Stringency index of 31-40, without restricting internal movement or imposing stay at home measures, and only recommending (not enforcing) closures on workplaces and schools, accompanied by public informational campaigns. Consequently, the positive effects on case and death growth rates of voluntary behavioral changes in response to beliefs about the severity of the pandemic, generally trumped those arising from mandatory behavioral restrictions. The exception being more stringent mandatory restrictions on gatherings and international movement, which were found to be effective. The findings suggest that further work should be directed at re-evaluating the effectiveness of NPIs, particularly towards empirically determining the optimal policy mix and associated stringency of individual NPIs.

Influence of Human Error on Structural Reliability

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Brehm ◽  
Robert Hertle ◽  
Markus Wetzel
Keyword(s):  
Human Error ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Structural Model ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Design Procedure ◽  
Material Strength ◽  
Limit States ◽  
The Impact

In common structural design, random variables, such as material strength or loads, are represented by fixed numbers defined in design codes. This is also referred to as deterministic design. Addressing the random character of these variables directly, the probabilistic design procedure allows the determination of the probability of exceeding a defined limit state. This probability is referred to as failure probability. From there, the structural reliability, representing the survival probability, can be determined. Structural reliability thus is a property of a structure or structural member, depending on the relevant limit states, failure modes and basic variables. This is the basis for the determination of partial safety factors which are, for sake of a simpler design, applied within deterministic design procedures. In addition to the basic variables in terms of material and loads, further basic variables representing the structural model have to be considered. These depend strongly on the experience of the design engineer and the level of detailing of the model. However, in the clear majority of cases [1] failure does not occur due to unexpectedly high or low values of loads or material strength. The most common reasons for failure are human errors in design and execution. This paper will provide practical examples of original designs affected by human error and will assess the impact on structural reliability.

scholarly journals Protective impacts of household-based tuberculosis contact tracing are robust across endemic incidence levels and community contact patterns

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. e1008713 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua Havumaki ◽  
Ted Cohen ◽  
Chengwei Zhai ◽  
Joel C. Miller ◽  
Seth D. Guikema ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Level ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Spatially Explicit Model ◽  
Household Transmission ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Social Mixing ◽  
High Incidence ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

There is an emerging consensus that achieving global tuberculosis control targets will require more proactive case finding approaches than are currently used in high-incidence settings. Household contact tracing (HHCT), for which households of newly diagnosed cases are actively screened for additional infected individuals is a potentially efficient approach to finding new cases of tuberculosis, however randomized trials assessing the population-level effects of such interventions in settings with sustained community transmission have shown mixed results. One potential explanation for this is that household transmission is responsible for a variable proportion of population-level tuberculosis burden between settings. For example, transmission is more likely to occur in households in settings with a lower tuberculosis burden and where individuals mix preferentially in local areas, compared with settings with higher disease burden and more dispersed mixing. To better understand the relationship between endemic incidence levels, social mixing, and the impact of HHCT, we developed a spatially explicit model of coupled household and community transmission. We found that the impact of HHCT was robust across settings of varied incidence and community contact patterns. In contrast, we found that the effects of community contact tracing interventions were sensitive to community contact patterns. Our results suggest that the protective benefits of HHCT are robust and the benefits of this intervention are likely to be maintained across epidemiological settings.

How relationship attributes affect bank customers’ saving

2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 156-170 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kent Eriksson ◽  
Cecilia Hermansson
Keyword(s):  
Structural Equation ◽  
Structural Model ◽  
Theory Development ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Subjective Perceptions ◽  
Saving Behavior ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to determine how three relational attributes – duration, context and trust – are subjectively perceived by bank customers, and how these affect their saving behavior, as defined by monthly flows to mutual funds and the financial products bought and held in stock.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use a combination of unique bank register and subjective survey data, and a structural equation model for theory development. Four constructs are developed to estimate the structural model, i.e. saving behavior, duration, context and trust.FindingsThe authors find that all three relational attributes have positive effects on saving behavior. The authors also find that duration and context have the largest total effects, and that trust is a mediating variable channeling indirect effects from context and duration to saving behavior.Practical implicationsOne implication for bank managers is that it takes time and understanding of customer context to gain customer trust, but that this increases customer savings. Another implication is that the authors confirm that relational attributes can be studied using subjective measures in surveys, and that these have an effect on objective savings behavior. The findings provide an understanding that could develop both the customer’s value and the banks’ business opportunities.Originality/valueThe impact of relationships between bank advisors and their customers in terms of costs and benefits has been studied, but a little research has focused on the attributes of the relationship and how these affect customers’ saving behavior. The study also uses unique objective bank register data, combined with customers’ subjective perceptions of the relationship.

scholarly journals The power of fears in the travel decision – covid-19 against lack of money

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tamara Gajić ◽  
Marko D. Petrović ◽  
Ivana Blešić ◽  
Milan M. Radovanović ◽  
Julia A. Syromiatnikova
Keyword(s):  
Critical Period ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Structural Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Travel Decisions ◽  
Travel Decision ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Practical Implications ◽  
Crisis Situations

PurposeDuring the pandemic, two types of fear were identified that occur significantly in all groups or profiles of people. The aim of this paper is to determine which of the two types of fears exist in certain psychological groups, and which of the fears strongly influence the decision to travel.Design/methodology/approachThe VALS 2 method and standardized questionnaire were used for the segmentation of the tourist market or for the determination of the psychographic profiles of the consumers, and three additional questions were joined to it as they were vital for the research of the type of fear and its impact on the decision for traveling. When the reliability of the questionnaire and the validity of the sample were determined, the data were further processed using a computer program package IMB AMOS SPSS 21.00, and then, based on the theoretical suppositions and hypotheses, the SEM structural model was created.FindingsThe paper indicates the existence of established types of fears in humans, when it comes to pandemics and similar crisis situations. People are most afraid of infection during travel, and lack of funds and job loss during the critical period of the pandemic. The research conducted confirms that all groups of people, who are determined by the psychological technique VALS 2, react with a certain dose of fear and make decisions under the pressure of fears.Research limitations/implicationsThe research had limitations in terms of contact with people and conducting live surveys. The measures during the pandemic, which were carried out by the state, included social distance and limited movement of people.Practical implicationsThe work can contribute to the community, along with similar research. The results of the research will be available, and it will be possible to see the behavior of people during crisis situations, and the impact of fears on making decisions, both travel decisions and decisions related to other areas of life.Originality/valueThe paper provides research results on a large sample of respondents, and can serve as a basis for further research in the field of tourism, psychology and similar fields. It is crucial to consider the type of fears, and the strength of the impact of these fears on the decision to travel, during crisis situations.

Structural Modeling of Institute of Entrepreneurship in Russia

2019 ◽  
pp. 34-48
Author(s):  
Svetlana L. Sazanova
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
Structural Model ◽  
Institutional Environment ◽  
Small And Medium Enterprises ◽  
Structural Modeling ◽  
Entrepreneurial Activity ◽  
Pattern Modeling ◽  
Medium Enterprises ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Entrepreneurship plays an important role in the modern global economy; the share of products of small and medium enterprises in the gross product and exports not only of the developed but also of developing countries is growing. Innovation processes cover all sectors of the economy, and more and more people are involved in entrepreneurial activity, which contributes to the penetration of entrepreneurial thinking and business values in all areas of the socioeconomic life of society. The Institute of Entrepreneurship plays an increasingly prominent role in the institutional environment of socio-economic systems. This actualizes the problem of studying the relationship of the institution of entrepreneurship with the institutions of law, culture, management. This requires a methodology that allows you to explore the impact on the institute of entrepreneurship not only economic, but also non-economic factors. The methodology of the “old” institutionalism possesses such a tool, it is structural modeling (pattern modeling), which allows to explore the diversity of interrelationships of the institution of entrepreneurship with other components of the institutional and economic environment. The article explored the features of the development of the institution of entrepreneurship in Russia, established the relationship between the institution of entrepreneurship, values, motives and incentives for entrepreneurial activity, built a structural model of the institution of entrepreneurship based on the methodology of the old institutionalism (pattern modeling). The structural model of the institution of entrepreneurship reveals the relationship between the institution of entrepreneurship, the values of entrepreneurial activity, its motives and incentives; as well as the relationship between the institution of entrepreneurship with the institutions of governance, cultural and religious institutions, legal institutions and society.

Income Diversification and Bank Efficiency in Vietnam

2017 ◽  
pp. 52-67
Author(s):  
Sang Nguyen Minh
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Operational Efficiency ◽  
Commercial Banking ◽  
Tobit Regression ◽  
Income Diversification ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Study Results ◽  
The Impact

This study uses the DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) method to estimate the technical efficiency index of 34 Vietnamese commercial banks in the period 2007-2015, and then it analyzes the impact of income diversification on the operational efficiency of Vietnamese commercial banks through a censored regression model - the Tobit regression model. Research results indicate that income diversification has positive effects on the operational efficiency of Vietnamese commercial banks in the research period. Based on study results, in this research some recommendations forpolicy are given to enhance the operational efficiency of Vietnam’s commercial banking system.

Impact of Digitalization on Service Work in Knowledge-Intensive Business Services: An Empirical Study in Tax Consultancies

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 209-222
Author(s):  
Philipp K. Görs ◽  
Henning Hummert ◽  
Anne Traum ◽  
Friedemann W. Nerdinger
Keyword(s):  
Work Engagement ◽  
Service Work ◽  
Psychological Consequences ◽  
Business Services ◽  
Knowledge Intensive Business Services ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Knowledge Intensive ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
Special Case

Digitalization is a megatrend, but there is relatively little knowledge about its consequences for service work in general and specifically in knowledge-intensive business services (KIBS). We studied the impact of digitalization on psychological consequences for employees in tax consultancies as a special case of KIBS. We compare two tax consulting jobs with very different job demands, those of tax consultants (TCs) and assistant tax consultants (ATCs). The results show that the extent of digitalization at the workplace level for ATCs correlates significantly positively with their job satisfaction. For TCs, the same variable correlates positively with their work engagement. These positive effects of digitalization are mediated in the case of ATCs by the impact on important job characteristics. In the case of TCs, which already have very good working conditions, the impact is mediated by the positive effect on self-efficacy. Theoretical and practical consequences of these results are discussed.

Assessment of sensitivity of the efficiency of regional tax spending towards investment attractiveness of the types of economic activity carried out by the residents of advanced development territory

2020 ◽  
pp. 98-110
Author(s):  
Evgeniya Mikhailovna Popova ◽  
Guzel Mukhtarovna Guseinova ◽  
Sergei Borisovich Milov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Socioeconomic Development ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Tax Incentives ◽  
Capital Investments ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Investment Process ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Advanced Development

The deficit of subnational budgets and deceleration capital investments in multiple Russian regions increase the relevance of research aimed at improvement of tax incentivizing practice of the regional investment process. The studies focused on determination of the impact of socioeconomic and institutional factors upon the efficiency of investment tax expenses obtained wide circulation within the foreign scientific literature. The subject of this article is the assessment of sensitivity of the efficiency of regional tax expanses towards investment attractiveness of the types of economic activity carried out by the residents of territories of advanced socioeconomic development, created in the subjects of Far Easter Federal District. The scientific novelty and practical values of this research consists in substantiation of the reasonableness of assessment of investment attractiveness of the types of economic activity that are stimulated by tax incentives. Methodology for assessing investment attractiveness is proposed and tested. The conclusion is made that in case of low investment attractiveness of the type of economic activity, which was planned to support by tax incentives, it is required to conduct and additional analysis to avoid unjustified tax expanses.

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