scholarly journals Machine Learning to Predict 10-year Cardiovascular Mortality from the Electrocardiogram: Analysis of the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chang H Kim ◽  
Sadeer Al-Kindi ◽  
Yasir Tarabichi ◽  
Suril Gohel ◽  
Riddhi Vyas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Cardiovascular Mortality ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Nhanes Iii ◽  
Nutrition Examination Survey ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
The Third ◽  
Health And Nutrition ◽  
Machine Learning Models ◽  
Ecg Data

Background: The value of the electrocardiogram (ECG) for predicting long-term cardiovascular outcomes is not well defined. Machine learning methods are well suited for analysis of highly correlated data such as that from the ECG. Methods: Using demographic, clinical, and 12-lead ECG data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III), machine learning models were trained to predict 10-year cardiovascular mortality in ambulatory U.S. adults. Predictive performance of each model was assessed using area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), area under precision-recall curve (AUPRC), sensitivity, and specificity. These were compared to the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE). Results: 7,067 study participants (mean age: 59.2 +/- 13.4 years, female: 52.5%, white: 73.9%, black: 23.3%) were included. At 10 years of follow up, 338 (4.8%) had died from cardiac causes. Compared to the PCE (AUROC: 0.668, AUPRC: 0.125, sensitivity: 0.492, specificity: 0.859), machine learning models only required demographic and ECG data to achieve comparable performance: logistic regression (AUROC: 0.754, AUPRC: 0.141, sensitivity: 0.747, specificity: 0.759), neural network (AUROC: 0.764, AUPRC: 0.149, sensitivity: 0.722, specificity: 0.787), and ensemble model (AUROC: 0.695, AUPRC: 0.166, sensitivity: 0.468, specificity: 0.912). Additional clinical data did not improve the predictive performance of machine learning models. In variable importance analysis, important ECG features clustered in inferior and lateral leads. Conclusions: Machine learning can be applied to demographic and ECG data to predict 10-year cardiovascular mortality in ambulatory adults, with potentially important implications for primary prevention.

Application of Machine Learning Techniques to Predict Binding Affinity for Drug Targets: A Study of Cyclin-Dependent Kinase 2

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 253-265 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriela Bitencourt-Ferreira ◽  
Amauri Duarte da Silva ◽  
Walter Filgueira de Azevedo
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Binding Affinity ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Supervised Machine Learning ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Scoring Functions ◽  
Cyclin Dependent Kinase ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Machine Learning Models

Background: The elucidation of the structure of cyclin-dependent kinase 2 (CDK2) made it possible to develop targeted scoring functions for virtual screening aimed to identify new inhibitors for this enzyme. CDK2 is a protein target for the development of drugs intended to modulate cellcycle progression and control. Such drugs have potential anticancer activities. Objective: Our goal here is to review recent applications of machine learning methods to predict ligand- binding affinity for protein targets. To assess the predictive performance of classical scoring functions and targeted scoring functions, we focused our analysis on CDK2 structures. Methods: We have experimental structural data for hundreds of binary complexes of CDK2 with different ligands, many of them with inhibition constant information. We investigate here computational methods to calculate the binding affinity of CDK2 through classical scoring functions and machine- learning models. Results: Analysis of the predictive performance of classical scoring functions available in docking programs such as Molegro Virtual Docker, AutoDock4, and Autodock Vina indicated that these methods failed to predict binding affinity with significant correlation with experimental data. Targeted scoring functions developed through supervised machine learning techniques showed a significant correlation with experimental data. Conclusion: Here, we described the application of supervised machine learning techniques to generate a scoring function to predict binding affinity. Machine learning models showed superior predictive performance when compared with classical scoring functions. Analysis of the computational models obtained through machine learning could capture essential structural features responsible for binding affinity against CDK2.

scholarly journals Classification and Prediction on the Effects of Nutritional Intake on Overweight/Obesity, Dyslipidemia, Hypertension and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Using Deep Learning Model: 4–7th Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (11) ◽  
pp. 5597
Author(s):  
Hyerim Kim ◽  
Dong Hoon Lim ◽  
Yoona Kim
Keyword(s):  
Diabetes Mellitus ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Decision Tree ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Nutritional Intake ◽  
Nutrition Examination Survey ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Health And Nutrition ◽  
Machine Learning Models

Few studies have been conducted to classify and predict the influence of nutritional intake on overweight/obesity, dyslipidemia, hypertension and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) based on deep learning such as deep neural network (DNN). The present study aims to classify and predict associations between nutritional intake and risk of overweight/obesity, dyslipidemia, hypertension and T2DM by developing a DNN model, and to compare a DNN model with the most popular machine learning models such as logistic regression and decision tree. Subjects aged from 40 to 69 years in the 4–7th (from 2007 through 2018) Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) were included. Diagnostic criteria of dyslipidemia (n = 10,731), hypertension (n = 10,991), T2DM (n = 3889) and overweight/obesity (n = 10,980) were set as dependent variables. Nutritional intakes were set as independent variables. A DNN model comprising one input layer with 7 nodes, three hidden layers with 30 nodes, 12 nodes, 8 nodes in each layer and one output layer with one node were implemented in Python programming language using Keras with tensorflow backend. In DNN, binary cross-entropy loss function for binary classification was used with Adam optimizer. For avoiding overfitting, dropout was applied to each hidden layer. Structural equation modelling (SEM) was also performed to simultaneously estimate multivariate causal association between nutritional intake and overweight/obesity, dyslipidemia, hypertension and T2DM. The DNN model showed the higher prediction accuracy with 0.58654 for dyslipidemia, 0.79958 for hypertension, 0.80896 for T2DM and 0.62496 for overweight/obesity compared with two other machine leaning models with five-folds cross-validation. Prediction accuracy for dyslipidemia, hypertension, T2DM and overweight/obesity were 0.58448, 0.79929, 0.80818 and 0.62486, respectively, when analyzed by a logistic regression, also were 0.52148, 0.66773, 0.71587 and 0.54026, respectively, when analyzed by a decision tree. This study observed a DNN model with three hidden layers with 30 nodes, 12 nodes, 8 nodes in each layer had better prediction accuracy than two conventional machine learning models of a logistic regression and decision tree.

scholarly journals Temporal and Spatial Autocorrelation as Determinants of Regional AOD-PM2.5 Model Performance in the Middle East

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (18) ◽  
pp. 3790
Author(s):  
Khang Chau ◽  
Meredith Franklin ◽  
Huikyo Lee ◽  
Michael Garay ◽  
Olga Kalashnikova
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Middle East ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Atmospheric Correction ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Variable Importance ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Median Test ◽  
Temporal And Spatial ◽  
Machine Learning Models

Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution has been shown in numerous studies to be associated with detrimental health effects. However, the ability to conduct epidemiological assessments can be limited due to challenges in generating reliable PM2.5 estimates, particularly in parts of the world such as the Middle East where measurements are scarce and extreme meteorological events such as sandstorms are frequent. In order to supplement exposure modeling efforts under such conditions, satellite-retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) has proven to be useful due to its global coverage. By using AODs from the Multiangle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) of the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) combined with meteorological and assimilated aerosol information from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), we constructed machine learning models to predict PM2.5 in the area surrounding the Persian Gulf, including Kuwait, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates (U.A.E). Our models showed regional differences in predictive performance, with better results in the U.A.E. (median test R2 = 0.66) than Kuwait (median test R2 = 0.51). Variable importance also differed by region, where satellite-retrieved AOD variables were more important for predicting PM2.5 in Kuwait than in the U.A.E. Divergent trends in the temporal and spatial autocorrelations of PM2.5 and AOD in the two regions offered possible explanations for differences in predictive performance and variable importance. In a test of model transferability, we found that models trained in one region and applied to another did not predict PM2.5 well, even if the transferred model had better performance. Overall the results of our study suggest that models developed over large geographic areas could generate PM2.5 estimates with greater uncertainty than could be obtained by taking a regional modeling approach. Furthermore, development of methods to better incorporate spatial and temporal autocorrelations in machine learning models warrants further examination.

scholarly journals Development of Combined Heavy Rain Damage Prediction Models with Machine Learning

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 2516 ◽  
Author(s):  
Changhyun Choi ◽  
Jeonghwan Kim ◽  
Jungwook Kim ◽  
Hung Soo Kim
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Damage Prediction ◽  
Natural Disaster Management ◽  
Machine Learning Models

Adequate forecasting and preparation for heavy rain can minimize life and property damage. Some studies have been conducted on the heavy rain damage prediction model (HDPM), however, most of their models are limited to the linear regression model that simply explains the linear relation between rainfall data and damage. This study develops the combined heavy rain damage prediction model (CHDPM) where the residual prediction model (RPM) is added to the HDPM. The predictive performance of the CHDPM is analyzed to be 4–14% higher than that of HDPM. Through this, we confirmed that the predictive performance of the model is improved by combining the RPM of the machine learning models to complement the linearity of the HDPM. The results of this study can be used as basic data beneficial for natural disaster management.

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