scholarly journals Full title: COVID-19 disease progression according to initial symptoms. A telemedicine cohort study.

Author(s):  
Karla Murillo-Villanueva ◽  
Blanca Velazquez-Hernandez ◽  
Jose A Jacome-Mondragon ◽  
Judit J Cervantes-Llamas ◽  
Juan O Talavera

Abstract Objective COVID-19 progression to severe or critical illness may be related to initial clinical presentation. Main objective was to identify initial symptoms related to highest risk of disease progression, in mild or moderate suspected or confirmed COVID-19 patients or in asymptomatic subjects in contact with a recently diagnosed patient. Design and methods Historic cohort study of Mexican patients with suspected or confirmed mild or moderate COVID-19 or asymptomatic subjects in recent contact with positive patients. They sought medical attention in Centro Medico ABC or claimed for remote attention, and daily telemedicine follow up until recovery or illness progression, from April 17th to October 08th 2020. Data excerpted for analysis were sex, age, body mass index, comorbidities, and signs, and symptoms presented in first day of disease manifestations and during follow up. We used logistic regression to identify initial symptoms associated with progression disease and through a conjunctive consolidation analysis a symptom index was created. Results 120 of 1635 patients (7.2%) had clinical progression disease. By logistic regression we found as initial symptoms related to progression: fever OR 3 (1.89-4.77, p<0.001), cough OR 2.34 (1.56-3.52, p<0.001), myalgias or arthralgias OR 1.69 (1.09-2.63, p=0.018), and fatigue OR 1.65 (1.08-2.53, p=0.019). Conjunctive consolidation was processed with the previous symptoms, and a 3 groups score resulted C-19PAIS Index: 1) Fever with cough or fever with fatigue, with a probability of progression disease of 29% (31/106 patients), 2) Fever or cough or fatigue or cough with fatigue, 10.7% (66/615 patients) and 3) No fever, no cough, no fatigue, 2% (23/914). Conclusions Initial symptoms predict clinical progression in COVID-19 patients.

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S319-S320
Author(s):  
Bruno G Buitano ◽  
Dan Morgenstern ◽  
Juan Talavera ◽  
Andrea Zaldívar ◽  
Mercedes Martínez

Abstract Background Until now, studies have been focused on patient-centered risk factors, while SARS-CoV-2 aggressiveness has been established as causing 20% of severe and critical patients. However, there are still many unanswered questions concerning the clinical aggressiveness behavior of SARS-CoV-2. This study focuses on progression of symptoms as a marker of such aggressiveness, using the Period between initial symptoms and clinical progression to COVID-19 suspicion (PISYCS) to determine the risk of severe disease and mortality. Methods Historic cohort study of Mexican patients. Data from January-April 2020 were provided by the Health Ministry. Setting: Population-based. Patients registered in the Epidemiologic Surveillance System in Mexico. Participants were subjects who sought medical attention for clinical suspicion of COVID-19. All patients were subjected to RT-PCR testing for SARS-CoV-2. We measured the Period between initial symptoms and clinical progression to COVID-19 suspicion (PISYCS) and compared it to the primary outcomes (mortality and pneumonia) Results 65,500 patients were included. Reported fatalities and pneumonia were 2176 (3.32%), and 11568 (17.66%), respectively. According to the PISYCS, patients were distributed as follows: 14.89% in &lt; 24 hours, 43.25% between 1–3 days, 31.87% between 4–7 days and 9.97% &gt; 7 days. The distribution for mortality and pneumonia was 5.2% and 22.5% in &lt; 24 hours, 2.5% and 14% between 1–3 days, 3.6% and 19.5% between 4–7 days, 4.1% and 20.6% &gt; 7 days, respectively (p&lt; 0.001). Adjusted-risk of mortality was (OR [95% CI], p-value): &lt; 24 hours = 1.75 [1.55–1.98], p&lt; 0.001; 1–3 days = 1 (reference value); 4–7 days = 1.53 [1.37–1.70], p&lt; 0.001; &gt; 7 days = 1.67 [1.44–1.94], p&lt; 0.001. For pneumonia: &lt; 24 hours = 1.49 [1.39–1.58], p&lt; 0.001; 1–3 days = 1; 4–7 days = 1.48 [1.41–1.56], p&lt; 0.001; &gt; 7 days = 1.57 [1.46–1.69], p&lt; 0.001. Risk of Mortality vs. PISYCS Logistic regression anlaysis of mortality based on PISYCS. Note that risk of mortality is significantly higher when PISYCS is &gt; 24 hours and &lt; 7 days Risk of Pneumonia vs. PISYCS Logistic regression anlaysis of developing pneumonia based on PISYCS. Note that risk of pneumonia is significantly higher when PISYCS is &gt; 24 hours and &lt; 7 days. Conclusion The PISYCS shows a U-shaped SARS-CoV-2 aggressiveness pattern. Further studies are needed to corroborate the time-related pathophysiology behind these findings and possibly justify use of PISYCS as an initial evaluation tool and therapies/monitoring in high-risk patients. Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures


PLoS ONE ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (12) ◽  
pp. e0243268
Author(s):  
Dan Morgenstern-Kaplan ◽  
Bruno Buitano-Tang ◽  
Mercedes Martínez-Gil ◽  
Andrea Zaldívar-Pérez Pavón ◽  
Juan O. Talavera

Background Early identification of different COVID-19 clinical presentations may depict distinct pathophysiological mechanisms and guide management strategies. Objective To determine the aggressiveness of SARS-CoV-2 using symptom progression in COVID-19 patients. Design Historic cohort study of Mexican patients. Data from January-April 2020 were provided by the Health Ministry. Setting Population-based. Patients registered in the Epidemiologic Surveillance System in Mexico. Participants Subjects who sought medical attention for clinical suspicion of COVID-19. All patients were subjected to RT-PCR testing for SARS-CoV-2. Measurements We measured the Period between initial symptoms and clinical progression to COVID-19 suspicion (PISYCS) and compared it to the primary outcomes (mortality and pneumonia). Results 65,500 patients were included. Reported fatalities and pneumonia were 2176 (3.32%), and 11568 (17.66%), respectively. According to the PISYCS, patients were distributed as follows: 14.89% in <24 hours, 43.25% between 1–3 days, 31.87% between 4–7 days and 9.97% >7 days. The distribution for mortality and pneumonia was 5.2% and 22.5% in <24 hours, 2.5% and 14% between 1–3 days, 3.6% and 19.5% between 4–7 days, 4.1% and 20.6% >7 days, respectively (p<0.001). Adjusted-risk of mortality was (OR [95% CI], p-value): <24 hours = 1.75 [1.55–1.98], p<0.001; 1–3 days = 1 (reference value); 4–7 days = 1.53 [1.37–1.70], p<0.001; >7 days = 1.67 [1.44–1.94], p<0.001. For pneumonia: <24 hours = 1.49 [1.39–1.58], p<0.001; 1–3 days = 1; 4–7 days = 1.48 [1.41–1.56], p<0.001; >7 days = 1.57 [1.46–1.69], p<0.001. Limitations Using a database fed by large numbers of people carries the risk of data inaccuracy. However, this imprecision is expected to be random and data are consistent with previous studies. Conclusion The PISYCS shows a U-shaped SARS-CoV-2 aggressiveness pattern. Further studies are needed to corroborate the time-related pathophysiology behind these findings.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dan Morgenstern-Kaplan ◽  
Bruno Buitano-Tang ◽  
Mercedes Martínez-Gil ◽  
Andrea Zaldívar-Pérez Pavón ◽  
Juan O. Talavera

AbstractBackgroundEarly identification of different COVID-19 clinical presentations may depict distinct pathophysiological mechanisms and guide management strategies.ObjectiveTo determine the aggressiveness of SARS-CoV-2 using symptom progression in COVID-19 patients.DesignHistoric cohort study of Mexican patients. Data from January-April 2020 were provided by the Health Ministry.SettingPopulation-based. Patients registered in the Epidemiologic Surveillance System in Mexico.ParticipantsSubjects who sought medical attention for clinical suspicion of COVID-19. All patients were subjected to RT-PCR testing for SARS-CoV-2.MeasurementsWe measured the Period between initial symptoms and clinical progression to COVID-19 suspicion (PISYCS) and compared it to the primary outcomes (mortality and pneumonia).Results65,500 patients were included. Reported fatalities and pneumonia were 2176 (3.32%), and 11568 (17.66%), respectively. According to the PISYCS, patients were distributed as follows: 14.89% in <24 hours, 43.25% between 1-3 days, 31.87% between 4-7 days and 9.97% >7 days. The distribution for mortality and pneumonia was 5.2% and 22.5% in <24 hours, 2.5% and 14% between 1-3 days, 3.6% and 19.5% between 4-7 days, 4.1% and 20.6% >7 days, respectively (p<0.001). Adjusted-risk of mortality was (OR [95% CI], p-value): <24 hours= 1.75 [1.55-1.98], p<0.001; 1-3 days= 1 (reference value); 4-7 days= 1.53 [1.37-1.70], p<0.001; >7 days= 1.67 [1.44-1.94], p<0.001. For pneumonia: <24 hours= 1.49 [1.39-1.58], p<0.001; 1-3 days= 1; 4-7 days= 1.48 [1.41-1.56], p<0.001; >7 days= 1.57 [1.46-1.69], p<0.001.LimitationsUsing a database fed by large numbers of people carries the risk of data inaccuracy. However, this imprecision is expected to be random and data are consistent with previous studies.ConclusionThe PISYCS shows a U-shaped SARS-CoV-2 aggressiveness pattern. Further studies are needed to corroborate the time-related pathophysiology behind these findings.


Healthcare ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 498
Author(s):  
Mark Reinwald ◽  
Peter Markus Deckert ◽  
Oliver Ritter ◽  
Henrike Andresen ◽  
Andreas G. Schreyer ◽  
...  

(1) Background: Healthcare workers (HCWs) are prone to intensified exposure to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in the ongoing pandemic. We prospectively analyzed the prevalence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 in HCWs at baseline and follow up with regard to clinical signs and symptoms in two university hospitals in Brandenburg, Germany. (2) Methods: Screening for anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgA and IgG antibodies was offered to HCWs at baseline and follow up two months thereafter in two hospitals of Brandenburg Medical School during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany in an ongoing observational cohort study. Medical history and signs and symptoms were recorded by questionnaires and analyzed. (3) Results: Baseline seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgA was 11.7% and increased to 15% at follow up, whereas IgG seropositivity was 2.1% at baseline and 2.2% at follow up. The rate of asymptomatic seropositive cases was 39.5%. Symptoms were not associated with general seropositivity for anti-SARS-CoV-2; however, class switch from IgA to IgG was associated with increased symptom burden. (4) Conclusions: The seroprevalence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 was low in HCWs but higher compared to population data and increased over time. Screening for antibodies detected a significant proportion of seropositive participants cases without symptoms.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Csaba P Kovesdy ◽  
Danielle Isaman ◽  
Natalia Petruski-Ivleva ◽  
Linda Fried ◽  
Michael Blankenburg ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Chronic kidney disease (CKD), one of the most common complications of type 2 diabetes (T2D), is associated with poor health outcomes and high healthcare expenditures. As the CKD population increases, a better understanding of the prevalence and progression of CKD is critical. However, few contemporary studies have explored the progression of CKD relative to its onset in T2D patients using established markers derived from real-world care settings. Methods This retrospective, population-based cohort study assessed CKD progression among adults with T2D and with newly recognized CKD identified from US administrative claims data between 1 January 2008 and 30 September 2018. Included were patients with T2D and laboratory evidence of CKD as indicated by the established estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urine albumin:creatinine ratio (UACR) criteria. Disease progression was described as transitions across the eGFR- and UACR-based stages. Results A total of 65 731 and 23 035 patients with T2D contributed to the analysis of eGFR- and UACR-based CKD stage progression, respectively. CKD worsening was observed in approximately 10–17% of patients over a median follow-up of 2 years. Approximately one-third of patients experienced an increase in eGFR values or a decrease in UACR values during follow-up. Conclusions A relatively high proportion of patients were observed with disease progression over a short period of time, highlighting the need for better identification of patients at risk of rapidly progressive CKD. Future studies are needed to determine the clinical characteristics of these patients to inform earlier diagnostic and therapeutic interventions aimed at slowing disease progression.


Blood ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 120 (21) ◽  
pp. 5060-5060
Author(s):  
Grace Kam ◽  
Richard Yiu ◽  
Ai Leen Ang ◽  
Yvonne SM Loh ◽  
Yeh Ching Linn ◽  
...  

Abstract Abstract 5060 Less than 20% of patients with essential thrombocythemia (ET) are diagnosed below the age of 60. Patients with ET have increased risk of thrombosis and bleeding and potential for progression to myelofibrosis (MF) or acute myeloid leukaemia (AML). In limited studies of young patients, the clinical course has been relatively benign with low rates of transformation to AML or MF. Thrombohemorrhagic events are generally few, but higher than that of the general population. This study aims to characterize of a group ET patients diagnosed at age ≤40, their thrombotic and hemorrhagic events, disease progression and treatment given. Patients were identified through a single institution MPN registry. This is an IRB approved registry that captures comprehensive information about patients with ET. Data on patient demographics, treatment, and disease-related events were obtained. Patients were diagnosed from 1975–2011, using either WHO or PVSG criteria depending on date of diagnosis. Kaplan-Meier method was used for survival analysis. 59 patients were diagnosed with ET at age ≤40. Median age of diagnosis was 31. 5years (range 16–40), with a median follow up of 7. 7years (0. 4–33. 8). All were of Asian descent: 81. 4% Chinese, 11. 9% Malay, 3. 4% Indian and 3. 4% Filipino. 40. 7% were male. JAK2 V617F mutation was screened for in 61%. Of these patients, 11 were positive, 25 negative for the mutation. Mean presenting counts were: WBC 10. 7 × 109/L (5. 9–21. 3), Hb 13. 6g/dL (9. 7–16. 4), platelets 957 × 109/L (449–2377). Splenomegaly was noted in 3 patients. 20. 3% had underlying hypertension, 16. 9% hyperlipidemia and 5. 1% diabetes mellitus. One patient had a prior stroke. Another had prior portal vein thrombosis. At diagnosis, 23. 7% were symptomatic, with microvascular symptoms of headache (11. 9%) and giddiness (6. 8%) being most common. The remainder were diagnosed incidentally, on health screening or when seeking medical attention for unrelated conditions. One patient presented with a myocardial infarction at diagnosis, while another had a significant bleeding post hemorrhoidectomy with drop in Hb by >2g/dL (platelet 2457 × 109/L). Based on a history of prior thrombosis, 3 patients were defined as high risk for thrombotic events. 67. 8% of patients had cytoreduction, indications being platelets ≥1500 × 109/L (n=16), presence of risk factors for atherosclerotic disease (n=11) and history/onset of thrombosis (n=5). In 8, the reason for cytoreduction could not be ascertained. Hydroxyurea was most commonly used (62. 7%), followed by anagrelide in 52. 5% and interferon 25. 4%. 5. 1% received busulphan, and 1. 7% 32P. Use of antiplatelet therapy was noted in 83. 8%, most frequently aspirin (76. 5%) and ticlopidine (11. 9%). On follow up, 2 arterial thromboses occurred (stroke, TIA), giving a thrombosis rate of 0. 39%/patients/year. Neither was a recurrent thrombosis. No venous thrombosis or major bleeds occurred. 20. 4% had minor mucocutaneous bleeding; 5 had platelets ≥1500 × 109/L at that time. 3. 4% had disease progression due to MF and another 3. 4% had AML. 3. 4% of patients died due to AML. Median survival was 33. 8years (95% confidence interval 30. 3–35. 5). Initial blood counts, presence of JAK2 and high risk disease status did not correlate with thrombotic risk, risk of death or disease progression. Use of antiplatelet agents and a platelet count ≥1500 × 109/L did not correlate with bleeding risk. Few studies have looked exclusively at young patients with ET. In this group, most patients were asymptomatic and well, ET being diagnosed incidentally. They were predominantly at low risk for thrombosis and other ET-related complications. The period of follow up was comparable to that of other studies and during that time, the rate of complications and risk of disease progression was low. The thrombosis rate of 0. 39% per patient year was less than that reported by other groups (2. 2–2. 6 thromboses/100patients/year) (Leukaemia 2007;21:1218–1223, Clin Appl Thrombosis/Hemostasis 2000;6(1):31–35) but similar to the 0. 74%/patient year reported by Barbui (Blood. Epub. June 13 2012). Overall findings generally complemented those reported by other groups. No risk factors were found to influence the occurrence of complications, but the number of events was small. Follow up of this group of patients over time is essential to see if their disease course remains benign or if complications will increase with time. Soli Deo Gloria Disclosures: Kam: Shire Pharmaceuticals: Consultancy, grant to support the MPN registry Other.


Author(s):  
Ashley J Han ◽  
Elena V Varlamov ◽  
Maria Fleseriu

Abstract Context Characterization of the clinical features and natural history of non-functioning pituitary microadenomas (NFPmA) is limited by heterogenous and small-scale studies. Objective To characterize the clinical presentation and natural history of NFPmA and evaluate if imaging follow-up interval can be extended. Methods Retrospective single-center cohort study (years 2006-2021) of conservatively managed patients with NFPmA. Initial symptoms, pituitary function, and tumor size were assessed. A change in NFPmA size ≥ 2mm, as determined by pituitary or brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), was considered significant. Results There were 347 patients in the study cohort. Headache (78.4%) and fatigue (70.0%) were commonly reported despite no evidence of mass effect or significant pituitary hypofunction. Pituitary deficiencies at baseline were rare, with hypogonadism being most common (5.1%). During a median imaging follow-up period of 29 months (range 3-154), 8.1% of NFPmA grew. Growth incidence was 2.1 per 100 person-years with a mean and median time to growth of 38.1(SD± 36.4) and 24.5 (IQR12.0-70.8) months, respectively. Tumor growth was mild and not associated with new pituitary deficiencies or visual deficits. Conclusions These data indicate that the natural history of NFPmA is overall benign. Consequently, we propose that the initial MRI follow-up timeline for NFPmA can be extended up to 3 years unless a lesion is close to the optic chiasm, there are worrisome mass effect symptoms, or new pituitary deficiencies.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 224-231
Author(s):  
Hiroshi Kataoka ◽  
Kazuma Sugie

The severity of Parkinson’s disease (PD) is developed by multifactorial factors. Falls can worsen disease severity. We previously found that frontal assessment battery (FAB) score was associated with a higher risk of future falls. This eight-year follow-up study aimed to verify whether factors including low FAB score can be the risk of PD progression based on the Hoehn and Yahr scale. In total, 95 patients were initially enrolled in this research and 45 were included in the final follow-up. Then, the cohort was classified into patients with and without disease progression, defined by upgrade of Hoehn-Yahr stage. Differences in clinical characteristics between patients with disease progression and those without were evaluated using the Mann–Whitney U test. Eighteen independent variables were evaluated via a univariate logistic regression analysis. Of the 45 patients enrolled, 32 had disease progression and 13 had no progression. Age (p = 0.033), BFI score (p = 0.003), Zung self-rating depression (p = 0.011), and anxiety scale (p = 0.026) were significantly increased in patients who had disease progression than those with no disease progression. On multivariate logistic regression analysis, brief fatigue inventory (BFI) score (OR = 1.048, p = 0.045, 95% CI = 1.001–1.098) was significantly related to disease progression. All BFI subscores related to general fatigue. Fatigue could predict the progression of motor dysfunction severity over a longitudinal duration in patients with PD with disease progression, having declining physical and mental fatigue.


2004 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 747-754 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. HOTOPF ◽  
A. DAVID ◽  
L. HULL ◽  
V. NIKALAOU ◽  
C. UNWIN ◽  
...  

Background. There are no prospective cohort studies of prognostic factors on the outcome of Gulf War veterans. We aimed to test the hypotheses that Gulf War veterans who were older; had more severe symptoms; had more exposures during deployment; had increased psychological distress and believed they had ‘Gulf War syndrome’ would experience greater fatigue and poorer physical functioning at follow-up.Method. Gulf War veterans who responded to an earlier retrospective cohort study were followed with a postal survey. More symptomatic individuals were oversampled. Outcome was measured on the Chalder fatigue questionnaire, the General Health Questionnaire and the Medical Outcome Study Short-Form 36.Results. Of those surveyed, 73·8% responded. We found some evidence for four of the five hypotheses. More self-reported exposures at baseline were not associated with poorer outcome, but older people, those with more severe symptoms at baseline, those with psychological distress and who believed they were suffering from ‘Gulf War syndrome’ had more fatigue at follow-up. Officer status was associated with a better outcome. A similar lack of association was found for exposures and physical functioning and GHQ-12 score. ‘Gulf War syndrome’ attribution was associated with a worse outcome for GHQ-12 and physical functioning even after controlling for severity of symptoms at baseline.Conclusions. This study suggests that while multiple vaccination and military exposures are important risk factors for the onset of symptoms in Gulf War veterans, these are not important risk factors for persistence of such symptoms. Instead the severity of the initial symptoms; psychological distress and attributions may be more important determinants of outcome.


2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 9546-9546
Author(s):  
Jenny HJ Lee ◽  
Georgina V. Long ◽  
Alexander M. Menzies ◽  
Alexander David Guminski ◽  
Richard Kefford ◽  
...  

9546 Background: We have previously shown that undetectable ctDNA either at baseline or during therapy predicted response in mm patients (pts) treated with anti-PD1 antibodies (aPD1). Pseudoprogression, defined as radiological progression prior to response, occurs in 8% of pts treated with aPD1. We sought to determine if ctDNA could differentiate pseudoprogression from true progression, defined as continued clinical or radiological disease progression. Methods: Between July 2014 and May 2016, pts receiving aPD1 had serial bloods for ctDNA. Included pts either had RECIST PD at first restaging or early clinical progression. Those with untreated brain metastases were excluded from the analysis. ctDNA was quantified using digital droplet PCR for mutations (BRAF/NRAS) at baseline and during the first 12 wks of treatment. Based on our prior studies, ctDNA results were grouped in to ‘favorable’ and ‘unfavorable’ ctDNA profiles (see Table), and these were compared in pts with true and pseudoprogression. Results: 29 pts were included, 28 with RECIST PD at first restaging and one with early clinical progression. 9 (31%) pts had a subsequent RECIST PR or SD and were considered pseudoprogression and 20 (69%) had true progression. Of the pseudoprogressors, 7/9 pts remained in response with a median follow-up of 20 months (mths). 2/9 pts had disease progression at 7 and 18 mths, with ctDNA that remained detectable with a > 10-fold decrease during treatment in both patients. Of those with true progression and a favourable profile, 1 had a > 10-fold decrease in ctDNA by wk 12 and was switched to MAPK therapy prior to further imaging, and the other had an undetectable ctDNA at wk 6 which increased again at wk 12. The latter pt had a new lesion on first restaging CT scan despite PR in all existing lesions with true PD on second restaging at wk 24. Conclusions: ctDNA in patients with mm at baseline and early on aPD1 treatment differentiates pseudo from true progression. [Table: see text]


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