Housing prices and the probability of marriage among the young: evidence from land reform in China

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mingzhi Hu ◽  
Lina Wu ◽  
Guocheng Xiang ◽  
Shihu Zhong
Keyword(s):  
Young Adults ◽  
Young People ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Land Reform ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Urban China ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Nutrition Survey ◽  
Content Type

PurposeUsing data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey, this work examines the relationship between housing price and the probability of marriage among the young.Design/methodology/approachBy exploiting land reform as an exogenous change in housing price and employing a differences-in-differences framework, this study investigates the effects of housing price on the marriage probability of young people.FindingsThis work confirms that land reform decreased young people's likelihood of marriage. This finding is robust to a series of model specifications. The effects of land reform increased over time because of rising housing unaffordability from progressively inflating housing prices. Moreover, land reform had larger effects on renters and young adults aged below 30 than homeowners and young adults aged above 30.Social implicationsOverall, this study highlights the negative consequences of an overheated housing market on marriage in developing countries.Originality/valueHousing prices have increased dramatically in urban China after 2002 upon the implementation of the assignment system of the use right of all kinds of profit-oriented lands by means of public bidding, auction and quotation. High housing prices indicate serious housing unaffordability, especially for young people who typically have low income and wealth. Homeownership that comes with various benefits can theoretically increase the likelihood of marriage, particularly in China where a house is often regarded as a prerequisite for marriage.

scholarly journals The Neighborhood Effects of a Place-Based Policy—Causal Evidence from Atlanta’s Economic Development Priority Areas

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 6808
Author(s):  
Yuxi Luo ◽  
Zhaohua Zhang ◽  
Jun Zheng ◽  
Diane Hite
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Neighborhood Effects ◽  
Economic Status ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Labor Demand ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Poverty Rate ◽  
Priority Areas ◽  
Positive Effects

Place-based policies refer to government efforts to enhance the economic performance of an area within its jurisdiction. Applying various difference in differences strategies, this study evaluates the neighborhood effects of a place-based policy—the Economic Development Priority Areas (EDPA) of Atlanta, Georgia, USA. Since the census block groups are locally defined and the boundaries may change over time, we defined the neighborhoods by creating a set of 0.25-mile- diameter circles evenly distributed across Atlanta, and used the created buffers as the comparison unit. The empirical estimates showed that EDPA designation significantly reduced poverty rate and increased housing price of EDPA neighborhoods but had no beneficial effects on population size and employment rate. The heterogeneous analysis with respect to different initial economic status of the neighborhoods showed a relative larger and significant effect of EDPA designation on low-income neighborhoods. The increasing labor demand induced by EDPA designation in low-income neighborhoods attracted more population to migrate in and put upward pressure on housing prices. The estimation results are robust when replacing the 0.25-mile-diameter circle neighborhoods with 0.5-mile-diameter circle neighborhoods. Although we found some positive effects of the EDPA program in Atlanta, it would be misguided to assume similar effects occur in other areas implementing place-based policies.

Dynamic effects and spatial heterogeneity of land supply on housing price: evidence from Nanchang, China

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhijiang Wu ◽  
Yongxiang Wang ◽  
Wei Liu
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Heterogeneity ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Dynamic Effects ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Land Supply ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Major Factors ◽  
The City

Purpose Economic fundamentals are recognized as determining factors for housing on the city level, but the relationship between housing price and land supply has been disputed. This study aims to examine what kind of impact housing prices have on land supply and whether there is heterogeneity in different regional spaces. Design/methodology/approach This study collects the relevant data of land supply and housing prices in Nanchang from 2010 to 2018, constructs a vector autoregression (VAR) model, including one external factor and four internal factors of land supply to explore the dynamic effects and spatial heterogeneity of land supply on housing prices through regression analysis. Also, the authors use the geographic detector to analyze the spatial heterogeneity of housing prices in Nanchang. Findings This study found that the interaction between land supply and housing price is extremely complex because of the significant differences in the study area; the variables of land supply have both positive and negative effects on housing price, and the actual effect varies with the region; and residential land and GDP are the two major factors leading to the spatial heterogeneity in housing price. Research limitations/implications The dynamic effects of land supply on housing price are mainly reflected in the center and edge of the city, the new development area, and the old town, which is consistent with the spatial pattern of the double core, three circles and five groups in Nanchang. Originality/value This is a novel work to analyze the dynamic effects of land supply on house prices, instead of a single amount of land supply or land prices. Furthermore, the authors also explore the spatial heterogeneity according to the regional characteristics, which is conducive to targeted policymaking.

Property investor decisions using income and rental ratio signals

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Billie Ann Brotman
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Consumer Sentiment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Income Ratio ◽  
Real Estate Prices

PurposeThis paper, a case study, aims to consider whether the income ratio and rental ratio tracks the formation of residential housing price spikes and their collapse. The ratios are measuring the risk associated with house price stability. They may signal whether a real estate investor should consider purchasing real property, continue holding it or consider selling it. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (Dallas Fed) calculates and publishes income ratios for Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries to measure “irrational exuberance,” which is a measure of housing price risk for a given country's housing market. The USA is a member of the organization. The income ratio idea is being repurposed to act as a buy/sell signal for real estate investors.Design/methodology/approachThe income ratio calculated by the Dallas Fed and this case study's ratio were date-stamped and graphed to determine whether the 2006–2008 housing “bubble and burst” could be visually detected. An ordinary least squares regression with the data transformed into logs and a regression with structural data breaks for the years 1990 through 2019 were modeled using the independent variables income ratio, rent ratio and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The descriptive statistics show a gradual increase in the ratios prior to exposure to an unexpected, exogenous financial shock, which took several months to grow and collapse. The regression analysis with breaks indicates that the income ratio can predict changes in housing prices using a lead of 2 months.FindingsThe gradual increases in the ratios with predetermine limits set by the real estate investor may trigger a sell decision when a specified rate is reached for the ratios even when housing prices are still rising. The independent variables were significant, but the rent ratio had the correct sign only with the regression with time breaks model was used. The housing spike using the Dallas Fed's income ratio and this study's income ratio indicated that the housing boom and collapse occurred rapidly. The boom does not appear to be a continuous housing price increase followed by a sudden price drop when ratio analysis is used. The income ratio is significant through time, but the rental ratio and Consumer Sentiment Index are insignificant for multiple-time breaks.Research limitations/implicationsInvestors should consider the relative prices of residential housing in a neighborhood when purchasing a property coupled with income and rental ratio trends that are taking place in the local market. High relative income ratios may signal that when an unexpected adverse event occurs the housing market may enter a state of crisis. The relative housing prices to income ratio indicates there is rising housing price stability risk. Aggregate data for the country are used, whereas real estate prices are also significantly impacted by local conditions.Practical implicationsRatio trends might enable real estate investors and homeowners to determine when to sell real estate investments prior to a price collapse and preserve wealth, which would otherwise result in the loss of equity. Higher exuberance ratios should result in an increase in the discount rate, which results in lower valuations as measured by the formula net operating income dividend by the discount rate. It can also signal when to start reinvesting in real estate, because real estate prices are rising, and the ratios are relative low compared to income.Social implicationsThe graphical descriptive depictions seem to suggest that government intervention into the housing market while a spike is forming may not be possible due to the speed with which a spike forms and collapses. Expected income declines would cause the income ratios to change and signal that housing prices will start declining. Both the income and rental ratios in the US housing market have continued to increase since 2008.Originality/valueA consumer sentiment variable was added to the analysis. Prior researchers have suggested adding a consumer sentiment explanatory variable to the model. The results generated for this variable were counterintuitive. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) price index results signaled a change during a different year than when the S&P/Case–Shiller Home Price Index is used. Many prior studies used the FHFA price index. They emphasized regulatory issues associated with changing exuberance ratio levels. This case study applies these ideas to measure relative increases in risk, which should impact the discount rate used to estimate the intrinsic value of a residential property.

scholarly journals An Assessment of Urban Park Access Using House-Level Data in Urban China: Through the Lens of Social Equity

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (7) ◽  
pp. 2349 ◽  
Author(s):  
Siqi Yu ◽  
Xigang Zhu ◽  
Qian He
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Green Space ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Social Equity ◽  
Urban Parks ◽  
Urban China ◽  
Walking Distance ◽  
Urban Park ◽  
Level Data

The various benefits of urban green space are gaining increasing attention nowadays. Hence, the distribution of green space has become a scrutinized concern for spatial equity among local governments and the planning scholars. This study is the first quantitative evaluation of urban park accessibility using house-level data in urban China, from the perspective of social equity. We chose Nanjing as the empirical case and examined 2709 real estate units and 79 parks within the city. Accessibility is measured by the 10-min walking distance from homes to the adjacent urban parks. Using the Street Network Analysis model in ArcGIS and the statistical methods in SPSS, the result shows that 60.5% of the real estates in Nanjing are located within a 10-min walk to access urban parks. However, this accessibility is positively correlated with housing prices, and negatively correlated with the age of the buildings, holding all other factors constant. While affluent homeowners capture a high-quality green amenity, newly-built low-income communities, where most residents are classified as a vulnerable population, have the lowest percentage of accessible green space. This study reveals the existing spatial disparities of urban park accessibility among different socio-economic groups in Nanjing, China. Additionally, we found that urban redevelopment projects with greening and the large-scale affordable housing construction are pricing out the urban poor and rural immigrants from the inner city to the urban peripheral areas. This will reduce the accessibility to urban parks and other public service facilities among the lower income families, and exacerbate the inequality among the rich and the poor in terms of their quality of life. Main findings of this study can inform policy decisions regarding equitable park provision in the construction of the green city and the sustainable development in urban China and other developing countries.

Young adults and homeownership in Jakarta, Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rotimi Boluwatife Abidoye ◽  
Gitta Puspitasari ◽  
Riza Sunindijo ◽  
Michael Adabre
Keyword(s):  
Young Adults ◽  
Affordable Housing ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Government ◽  
Lending Institutions

Purpose Homeownership, especially for young adults, is a significant challenge in nearly every country and Indonesia, the fourth most populous country in the world, is not exempted. Its capital city, Jakarta, has the lowest homeownership rate when compared with other cities and if this challenge remains unresolved, it could lead to more social and economic issues in the country. Hence, this study aims to investigate the homeownership of young adults in Jakarta, focussing on young adults’ opinions, perceptions and experiences regarding homeownership opportunities. Design/methodology/approach A questionnaire survey was conducted to collect data from young adults in the study area. The collected data were analysed using the statistical package for the social sciences 24.0 software. Descriptive analysis, Cronbach’s alpha test, Pearson’s correlation test and mean score ranking were adopted to analyse the collected data. Findings The result shows that homeownership is driven by factors that are more functional and realistic (in terms of a place to live, marriage and parenthood) rather than those related to pride or social status representation (as a personal or career accomplishment). Unaffordability and insufficient income were ranked as crucial barriers to homeownership. Increasing the supply of affordable housing, controlling housing prices through government’s intervention and reducing mortgage interests are potential solutions to address this issue. Practical implications The result of this research would be useful to young adults who are the participants of this study, property developers, lending institutions and the government concerning homeownership policy formulation, loan provision, affordable housing supply, etc. Originality/value Specific studies that focussed on the young adults’ homeownership in Jakarta, Indonesia is limited, therefore, this research provides an insight into the issue of young adults’ homeownership in the country. Also, the findings could be applicable in other developing countries that have similar characteristics to Indonesia.

Housing price and enterprise financing: does mortgage effect exist?

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 137-152 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shujing Li ◽  
Nan Gao
Keyword(s):  
Financial Development ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Fixed Effect Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Effect Model ◽  
High Level

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the influence of the rise in housing prices on enterprise financing and also the sustainability and heterogeneity of this effect. Design/methodology/approach Empirical test, panel data, fixed-effect model, IV and 2SLS were used in this paper. Findings The empirical results indicate that the mortgage effect does exist, and the authors further analyze the heterogeneity of this effect by dividing the sample based on the degree of financial development and property rights; the empirical results reveal that the mortgage effect is significantly higher in places with the high level of financial development. Besides, compared to the SOE enterprise, the mortgage effect has more influence on non-SOE companies. Research limitations/implications The results indicate that the mortgage effect should be considered when regulating housing market, and in order to improve the financing capability of company, its profitability and financial market efficiency should be emphasized. Originality/value This paper not only confirms the existence of the mortgage effect, but also explores its sustainability and heterogeneity, which reveals the risk and bubble in the effect of house market on enterprise financing, and enlightens how to promote financing ability of company.

Modelling housing prices and market fundamentals: evidence from the Sydney housing market

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 746-762 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md Abdullah Al-Masum ◽  
Chyi Lin Lee
Keyword(s):  
Investment Decision ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
National Level ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Price Series ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Market Fundamentals

PurposeHousing prices in Sydney have increased rapidly in the past three decades. This leads to a debate of whether Sydney housing prices have departed from macroeconomic fundamentals. However, little research has been devoted to this area. Therefore, this study aims to fill this gap by examining the long-run association between housing prices and market fundamentals. Further, it also examines the long-run determinants of housing prices in Greater Sydney.Design/methodology/approachThe analysis of this study involves two stages. The first stage is to estimate the presence of long-run relationship between housing prices and market fundamentals with the Johansen and Juselius Cointegration test. Thereafter, the determinants of housing prices in Greater Sydney is assessed by using a vector error correction model.FindingsThe empirical results show that Sydney housing prices are cointegrated with market fundamentals in the long run. In addition, there is evidence to suggest that market fundamentals such as gross disposable income, housing supply, unemployment rate and gross domestic product are the key long-run determinants of Sydney housing prices, reflecting that Sydney housing prices, in general, can be explained by market fundamentals in the long run.Research limitations/implicationsThe findings enable more informed and practical policy and investment decision-making regarding the relation between housing prices and market fundamentals.Originality/valueThis paper is the first study to offer empirical evidence of the degree to which the behaviour of housing prices can be explained by market fundamentals, from a capital city instead of at a national level, using a relatively disaggregated dataset of housing price series for Greater Sydney.

Green federal tax credits impact on US housing prices

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 553-564
Author(s):  
Billie Ann Brotman
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Energy Policy ◽  
Income Tax ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Tax Credits ◽  
Disposable Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Dummy Variable ◽  
Energy Policy Act

Purpose The purpose of this study is to investigate whether increases in homeowner green amenities occurred because of income tax credits to the degree that changes in housing prices are measurable. Are higher incomes, lower mortgage rates and green income-tax credits impacting housing price changes? Design/methodology/approach The paper uses the least-squares regression model with natural log specifications. The log of income and a dummy variable, which was assigned to the Energy Policy Act (2005) and the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (2009) coverage dates are used as independent variables. Two regression models were examined using monthly housing price data from January 1990 through the year 2018. The first regression model used a single dummy variable for credits available under the Policy Act of 2005 and the Recovery Act of 2009. The second regression model considered the credits granted under these two laws separately. Disposable income per capita impacts demands for housing while green upgrade expenditures affect the cost of housing. Findings The laws set low credit limits of $500 followed by $1,500 but because of the multiplier effect, the spending appears to have magnified and been much higher. The credit availability variables have positive coefficients and were significant at 1 per cent. This implies that single-family housing prices were sensitive to the existence of residential energy property income-tax credits. The R2 results were 0.93 or above for both models. Research limitations/implications The data used was aggregated and publicly available online. Many studies use aggregated macroeconomic data when modeling housing prices using the exogenous variable of disposable income but there is no substitute for examining individual homes by location and their sales price to see under what conditions green income-tax credits have the most impact. There could be demographic issues that are missed when using aggregated information. Practical implications Spending on heating/cooling systems, dual pane windows and other green amenities keeps the housing stock modernized and housing prices steady or rising. An additional benefit is that spending motivated by self-interest can simulate household consumption spending. Houses deteriorate due to wear and tear. Physical-repairable depreciation represents a situation where maintenance funds are continuously needing to be spent. Repairs and upgrades to the structure of the property keep its price stable by stopping the physical depreciation that would otherwise occur with the passage of time. Social implications The paper provides support for the idea that residential green amenity upgrades positively impact the value of a house. These green-amenity upgrades, which other research studies have suggested should be included explicitly in the appraisal process, are a major characteristic of a property when a price estimate is being done. Housing being sold should have a section on the information sheet noting the property green upgrades that exist and an energy efficiency score should be assigned to each house listed for sale. Originality/value There are few (if any) academic research papers studying the impact of green tax credits available under the Energy Policy Act (2005) and under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (2009). The degree to which green income-tax credits stimulate spending on housing has not been addressed by researchers. This paper is an initial research attempt to quantify whether these legislative efforts measurably encouraged homeowners to adopt newer, greener technologies.

Residential properties, resources of basic education and willingness price of buyers

2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 227-242 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hao Zhang ◽  
Zhong-fei Li
Keyword(s):  
Basic Education ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Educational Resources ◽  
Allocation Mechanism ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Education Resources ◽  
Standards Of Living ◽  
Residential Properties ◽  
The Individual

Purpose – China's resource allocation mechanism in education has become an important factor in determining residential access to educational resources. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impacts made by the individual natures of buyers, the external environment, as well as the characteristics of residential properties on the willingness price of buyers. The study's aim is to lay theoretical foundations for the determination of problems related with the matters under consideration. Design/methodology/approach – Using the panel data of 54 districts and counties in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the study unifies macro factors and micro factors in a model for empirical analysis. Findings – Basic education resources can affect housing prices via the “capitalization of education.” The degree of those educational resources’ influence on willingness price changes according to personal income levels, standards of living, housing price fluctuations, the convenience of the residential area and the degrees of urbanization in a district. The greater the buyer's income and standard of living is, the higher is their willingness price. Buyers in urbanized areas prefer increases in educational resources. Increased educational resources increase the values of residential downtown areas. In developed areas with private educational facilities, the role of educational resources in influencing property prices is relatively small. Originality/value – This paper uses data concerning the consumption and investment of residential properties to build a theoretical model for the willingness price of buyers. It unifies macro factors and micro factors in a single model and presents new results about basic education resources and the willingness price of buyers under different conditions.

Young adults and wine consumption a qualitative application of the theory of planned behavior

2014 ◽  
Vol 116 (5) ◽  
pp. 832-848 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana Patrícia Silva ◽  
Isabel Figueiredo ◽  
Tim Hogg ◽  
Miguel Sottomayor
Keyword(s):  
Young Adults ◽  
Young People ◽  
Theory Of Planned Behavior ◽  
Planned Behavior ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Subjective Norms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Wine Consumption ◽  
And Behavior ◽  
Attitudes And Behavior

Purpose – The aim of this study is to identify perceptions, attitudes and behavior of young adults concerning wine consumption, using the “theory of planned behavior” as a theoretical framework. Design/methodology/approach – The aim of this study is to identify perceptions, attitudes and behavior of young adults concerning wine consumption, using the “theory of planned behavior” as a theoretical framework. Findings – The major findings are that attitudes and subjective norms are, apparently, the components with most influence on behavior of young people in relation to wine consumption. For the consumers group, attitudes seem to be the most crucial component, especially the “interest in alcohol”. They drink it in special occasions for sociability and to disinhibit. Regarding the non-consumers group, the main attitude is “dislike taste”. Also the subjective norms, are very present, especially parents, society, friends and publicity, in consumers group. The non-consumers have the perception of greater parental induction to not consume wine. No significant differences were found between gender or educational system. Research limitations/implications – Concerning the results, a limited, convenience sample, was employed and this is assumedly an exploratory study. Therefore the results cannot be considered to represent a broad section of the groups studied. Still sample related, only Portuguese young adults students were studied. Social implications – This research can contribute not only for the knowledge relating to Portugal as a wine consuming environment but also to the general area of attitudes and perceptions of young people towards moderate wine consumption. As today young adults, novice or potential wine consumers will be the next generation of wine consumers, it can be beneficial for wine marketers to focus on this target population aiming at exploring further their engagement with wine. Originality/value – This research has an originally approach to wine consumption by young adults once it focus and explore the non-problematic behavior of young adults about wine consumption. The results of this study can contribute to the development of targeted advertising and publicity of the wine industry, in order to promote moderate wine consumption among young adults.

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