scholarly journals The dynamics of survey-based household inflation expectations in India

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Saakshi Jha
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Structural Var ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Inflation Expectation ◽  
Long Run

PurposeThe authors analyze households' inflation expectations data for India, collected quarterly by the RBI for more than a decade. The contribution of this paper lies in two folds. First, this study examines the relationship between relatively recent inflation expectations survey of households (IESH) and the actual inflation for India. Secondly, the authors employ a structural VAR with the time period 2006 Q2 to 2020 Q2 on inflation expectation survey data of India. A short-term non-recursive restriction is imposed in the model in order to capture the simultaneous co-dependence causal effect of inflation expectation and realized inflation.Design/methodology/approachThis paper studies the dynamic behavior of inflation expectations survey data in two folds. First, the authors analyze the time series property of the survey data. The authors begin with testing the stationarity property of the series, followed by the casual relationship between the expected and actual inflation. The authors further examine the short-run and long-run behavior of the IESH with actual inflation. Employing autoregressive distributed lag and Johansen co-integration, the authors tested if a long-run relationship exists between the variables. In the second approach, the authors investigate the determinants of inflation expectations by employing a non-recursive SVAR model.FindingsThe preliminary explanatory test reveals that inflation expectation is a policy variable and should be used in monetary policy as an instrument variable. The model identifies the price puzzle for India. The authors find that the response of inflation to a monetary policy shock is neutral. The results also indicate that the expectations of the general public are self-fulfilling.Originality/valueIESH has only commenced from September 2005, hence is relatively new as compared to other survey in developed countries. Being a new data set so far, the authors could not locate any study devoted in analyzing the behavior of the data with other macroeconomic variables.

Persistence of profitability in top firms: does it vary across sectors?

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
pp. 269-287
Author(s):  
Parneet Kaur Bhangu
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze variations in the degree of persistence of profitability across diverse economic sectors and industry groups over the time period of 1990-2014 for a sample of top publically listed firms belonging to a selected set of developed and developing economies. Design/methodology/approach Degree of profit persistence has been estimated using Mueller’s (1990) autoregressive methodology. Firms were classified into different economic sectors and industry groups as per the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS). The examination of inter-sectoral variations in profit persistence has been performed by comparing mean values of estimated short-run and long-run profit persistence parameter for all firms and between firms belonging to the developed and developing countries, respectively. Findings Firms in consumer staples, consumer discretionary and health care enjoy persistent above the norm returns, unlike firms in traditional industries, utilities and energy sectors, which are characterized by low persistence and below the norm returns. A high degree of profit persistence is observed in health care and idea- and technology-intensive sector in the developed countries; however, in the developing countries, profits persist higher in consumer discretionary and capital-intensive telecommunication services sectors. Originality/value The study provides a holistic examination of inter-sectoral variations in profit persistence of top firms in developed and developing economies using a uniform methodology and data set. It can serve as an aid to the competition commissions and anti-trust regulatory authorities to formulate policies for curtailing anti-competitive activities in certain sectors.

Twitter users exhibited coping behaviours during the COVID-19 lockdown: an analysis of tweets using mixed methods

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruchi Mittal ◽  
Wasim Ahmed ◽  
Amit Mittal ◽  
Ishan Aggarwal
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
The Body ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Twitter Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The World ◽  
Twitter Users ◽  
The Government ◽  
Using Data

Purpose Using data from Twitter, the purpose of this paper is to assess the coping behaviour and reactions of social media users in response to the initial days of the COVID-19-related lockdown in different parts of the world. Design/methodology/approach This study follows the quasi-inductive approach which allows the development of pre-categories from other theories before the sampling and coding processes begin, for use in those processes. Data was extracted using relevant keywords from Twitter, and a sample was drawn from the Twitter data set to ensure the data is more manageable from a qualitative research standpoint and that meaningful interpretations can be drawn from the data analysis results. The data analysis is discussed in two parts: extraction and classification of data from Twitter using automated sentiment analysis; and qualitative data analysis of a smaller Twitter data sample. Findings This study found that during the lockdown the majority of users on Twitter shared positive opinions towards the lockdown. The results also found that people are keeping themselves engaged and entertained. Governments around the world have also gained support from Twitter users. This is despite the hardships being faced by citizens. The authors also found a number of users expressing negative sentiments. The results also found that several users on Twitter were fence-sitters and their opinions and emotions could swing either way depending on how the pandemic progresses and what action is taken by governments around the world. Research limitations/implications The authors add to the body of literature that has examined Twitter discussions around H1N1 using in-depth qualitative methods and conspiracy theories around COVID-19. In the long run, the government can help citizens develop routines that help the community adapt to a new dangerous environment – this has very effectively been shown in the context of wildfires in the context of disaster management. In the context of this research, the dominance of the positive themes within tweets is promising for policymakers and governments around the world. However, sentiments may wish to be monitored going forward as large-spikes in negative sentiment may highlight lockdown-fatigue. Social implications The psychology of humans during a pandemic can have a profound impact on how COVID-19 shapes up, and this shall also include how people behave with other people and with the larger environment. Lockdowns are the opposite of what societies strive to achieve, i.e. socializing. Originality/value This study is based on original Twitter data collected during the initial days of the COVID-19-induced lockdown. The topic of “lockdowns” and the “COVID-19” pandemic have not been studied together thus far. This study is highly topical.

Symmetric and asymmetric adjustment of bank deposit interest rates: empirical evidence from Kenya

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Moses Nzuki Nyangu ◽  
Freshia Wangari Waweru ◽  
Nyankomo Marwa
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Asymmetric Adjustment ◽  
Deposit Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Adjustment Speed ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Pass Through

PurposeThis paper examines the sluggish adjustment of deposit interest rate categories with response to policy rate changes in a developing economy.Design/methodology/approachSymmetric and asymmetric error correction models (ECMs) are employed to test the pass-through effect and adjustment speed of deposit rates when above or below their equilibrium levels.FindingsThe findings reveal an incomplete pass-through effect in both the short run and long run while mixed results of symmetric and asymmetric adjustment speed across the different deposit rate categories are observed. Collusive pricing arrangement behavior is supported by deposit rate categories that adjust more rigidly upwards than downwards, while negative customer reaction behavior is supported by deposit rate categories that adjust more rigidly downwards than upwards.Practical implicationsEven though the findings indicate an aspect of increased responsiveness over the period, the sluggish adjustment of deposit rates imply that monetary policy is still ineffective and not uniform across the different deposit rate categories.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study to empirically examine both symmetric and asymmetric adjustment behavior of deposit interest rate categories in Kenya. The findings are key to policy makers as they provide insights on how long it takes to adjust different deposit rate categories to monetary policy decisions. In addition, the behavior of deposit rates partly explains why interest rates capping was imposed in Kenya in 2016.

House price index (HPI) and Covid-19 pandemic shocks: evidence from Turkey and Kazakhstan

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yeşim Aliefendioğlu ◽  
Harun Tanrivermis ◽  
Monsurat Ayojimi Salami
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Monthly Basis ◽  
Data Set ◽  
House Price Index ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Asymmetric Pricing ◽  
Long Run

Purpose This paper aims to investigate asymmetric pricing behaviour and impact of coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic shocks on house price index (HPI) of Turkey and Kazakhstan. Design/methodology/approach Monthly HPIs and consumer price index (CPI) data ranges from 2010M1 to 2020M5 are used. This study uses a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model for empirical analysis. Findings The findings of this study reveal that the Covid-19 pandemic exerted both long-run and short-run asymmetric relationship on HPI of Turkey while in Kazakhstan, the long-run impact of Covid-19 pandemic shock is symmetrical long-run positive effect is similar in both HPI markets. Research limitations/implications The main limitations of this study are the study scope and data set due to data constraint. Several other macroeconomic variables may affect housing prices; however, variables used in this study satisfy the focus of this study in the presence of data constraint. HPI and CPI variables were made available on monthly basis for a considerably longer period which guaranteed the ranges of data set used in this study. Practical implications Despite the limitation, this study provides necessary information for authorities and prospective investors in HPI to make a sound investment decision. Originality/value This is the first study that rigorously and simultaneously examines the pricing behaviour of Turkey and Kazakhstan HPIs in relation to the Covid-19 pandemic shocks at the regional level. HPI of Kazakhstan is recognized in the global real estate transparency index but the study is rare. The study contributes to regional studies on housing price by bridging this gap in the real estate literature.

Determinates of Islamic banks liquidity

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 1619-1632
Author(s):  
Ahmad Al-Harbi
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Deposit Insurance ◽  
Fixed Effect Model ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Effect Model ◽  
Ratio Size ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
The One

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the determinants of Islam banks (IBs) liquidity. Design/methodology/approach In this paper, the author uses a generalized least square fixed effect model on an unbalanced panel data set of all IBs operating in the Organization of Islamic Cooperation countries over the period 1989-2008. Findings The estimation results show that all the determinants have statistically significant relationships with IBs’ liquidity but with different signs. On the one hand, foreign ownership, credit risk, profitability, inflation rate, monetary policy and deposit insurance negatively affected IBs liquidity. On the other hand, capital ratio, size gross domestic product growth and concentration have a positive nexus with IBs’ liquidity. Originality/value According to the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first empirical study to investigate the determinants of IBs liquidity using cross-country data with a large sample of IBs (110 banks) and over a long period (19 years). Also, the paper included variables that had not been discussed on the previous studies, which used cross-country data, such as efficiency, deposit insurance, monetary policy, concentration and market capitalization.

The nexus between economic institutions and unemployment: evidence from sub-Saharan Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdullahi Abdulhakeem Kilishi ◽  
Hammed Adesola Adebowale ◽  
Sodiq Abiodun Oladipupo
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Economic Institutions ◽  
Male And Female ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Ssa Countries

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the nexus between economic institutions (EI) and unemployment in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. Specifically, the paper examines the impact of aggregate EI and ten different components of institutions on total, male and female unemployment in SSA. Design/methodology/approach The paper used unbalanced panel data of 37 SSA countries covering the period between 1995 and 2018. A dynamic heterogenous panel data model is specified for the study. Two alternative estimation techniques of dynamic fixed effect and pool mean group methods were used to estimate the models. The choice of appropriate method is based on Hausman specification test. Findings The findings reveal that aggregate EI and institutions related to the monetary system, trade flows, government spending and fiscal process significantly lead to less unemployment in the long-run. However, there is no evidence of a significant relationship between EI and unemployment in the short-run. These findings are consistent for total, male and female unemployment, respectively. Practical implications To reduce unemployment significantly in the long run, policymakers in SSA need to build more market-friendly institutions that will incentivize private investment, allow free movement of labour and goods, as well as guarantee a stable macroeconomic environment and efficient fiscal system. Originality/value Most of the existing studies focused on the influence of labour market institutions on unemployment ignoring the effects of other forms of institutions. While available studies on the link between institutions and unemployment used either OECD or other developed countries sample, with scanty evidence from Africa. However, the effects of EI could vary across regions. Thus, generalizing the findings from developed countries for SSA countries and other developing countries may be misleading. Hence, this paper contributes to the existing literature by examining the nexus between different types of EI and unemployment using the SSA sample.

Does the origin matter? The effects of cross-border mergers and acquisitions in France

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Federico Carril-Caccia
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Mergers And Acquisitions ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Emerging Countries ◽  
Intangible Asset ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe present article analyses the effects of cross-border mergers and acquisitions (CBM&As) on targets' total factor productivity (TFP), employment, wages and intangible-asset investment. The author investigates whether the impact of CBM&As differs depending on the origin of the investing multinational (MNE). The author distinguishes between CBM&As from European countries, other developed countries and emerging countries.Design/methodology/approachThe author makes use of a unique firm-level data set of foreign direct investment in the French manufacturing sector. The authors applies propensity score matching and difference in differences to estimate the effect of CBM&As.FindingsThe results show that the consequences of CBM&As differ strongly depending on the origin. CBM&As from European MNEs have a positive impact on TFP, wages and intangible-asset investment, and those from emerging countries seem to increase wages and intangible-asset investments. In contrast, CBM&As that originate from MNEs from other developed countries do not have a significant effect.Originality/valueThis article contributes to the growing literature on the effects of foreign direct investment that highlights the relevance of accounting for the MNEs' origin. In particular, it is the first to address the impact of emerging-country MNEs' CBM&As in Europe.

Asymmetric impact of exchange rate changes on stock returns: evidence of two de facto regimes

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 147-173
Author(s):  
Walid M.A. Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Currency Depreciation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes

Purpose This study focuses on Egypt’s recent experience with exchange rate policies, examining the existence of spillover effects of exchange rate variations on stock prices across two different de facto regimes and whether these effects, if any, are asymmetric. Design/methodology/approach The empirical analysis is carried out using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag modeling framework, which permits testing for the presence of short- and long-run asymmetries. Relevant local and global factors are also included in the analysis as control variables. The authors divide the entire sample into a soft peg period and a free float one. Findings Over the soft peg regime period, both positive and negative changes in EGP/USD exchange rates seem to have a significant impact on stock returns, whether in the short or long run. Short-term asymmetric effects vanish in the free float period, while long-term asymmetries continue to exist. By and large, the authors find that currency depreciation tends to exercise a stronger influence on stock returns than does currency appreciation. Practical implications The results offer important insights for investors, regulators and policymakers. With the domestic currency depreciation having a negative impact on stock prices, investors should contemplate implementing appropriate currency hedging strategies to abate depreciation risks and, hence, preserve their expected rate of return on the Egyptian pound-denominated investments. In the current post-flotation era, the government could pursue a flexible inflation targeting monetary policy framework, with a view to both lowering the soaring inflation toward an announced target rate and stabilizing economic growth. The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) could adopt indirect monetary policy instruments to secure tightened liquidity conditions. Besides, the CBE could raise policy rates to incentivize people to keep their money in local currency-denominated instruments, instead of dollarizing their savings, thereby relieving banks of foreign currency demand pressures. Nevertheless, while being beneficial to the country’s real economy on several aspects, such contractionary monetary measures may temporarily impinge on stock market performance. Accordingly, policymakers should consider precautionary measures that reduce the potential for price distortions and unnecessary volatility in the stock market. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the current study represents the first attempt to explore the potential impact of exchange rate changes under different regimes on Egypt’s stock market, thus contributing to the relevant research in this area.

scholarly journals Chinese reverse M&As in the Netherlands: Chinese managers’ trust building practices

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-91
Author(s):  
Zhe Sun ◽  
Liang Zhao
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Trust Building ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Personal Trust ◽  
Nuanced Understanding ◽  
Chinese Managers

Purpose Building trust is critical in reverse mergers and acquisitions (M&As), attributed to the divergence of governance and culture between the East and the West. This paper aims to explore the barriers and trust-building practices of Chinese managers in reverse M&As in developed countries. Design/methodology/approach The primary data set of this research contains case studies of two Chinese M&A deals and in-depth interviews with managers and advisories in the Netherlands. Findings This research finds that the divergences of decision-making structure, communication style and trust orientation generate barriers to the trust building in Chinese reverse M&As. The third-party advisory participation helps to build cognition-based trust of acquired company managers on Chinese acquiring company managers through providing information and explanation, fitting Chinese buyers in the Western M&A procedure and offering communication. It also helps to build affect-based trust through bridging the divergence of trust orientation and filling the cultural voids. Meanwhile, the invisible integration helps to build cognition-based trust through maintaining the core business, offering great help to acquired companies for their business expansion and selecting the business collaboration areas in the long term. It also helps to build affect-based trust through granting a high degree of governance independence and enabling a balanced status in acquired companies. Originality/value This research unveils the “black box” of Chinese reverse M&As from an inter-personal trust perspective and advances the nuanced understanding of trust and trust-building practices in Chinese reverse M&As. It also provides practical tools for both Chinese companies and acquired companies in developed countries.

On the link between HIV prevalence and health expenditure: an asymmetric analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
pp. 509-526
Author(s):  
Massomeh Hajilee ◽  
Mahsa Oroojeni Mohammad Javad ◽  
Linda A. Hayes
Keyword(s):  
Health Expenditure ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Hiv Prevalence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Linear And Nonlinear ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Hiv Aids

PurposeIndividuals' health is considered one of the major determinants of higher levels of productivity and economic development. Over the past century, the widespread occurrence of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) has been a serious threat to economic development around the globe and has caused a dramatic fall in the life expectancy rate in many nations. This is the first study that examines the impact of HIV prevalence on health expenditure at the national level employing two linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models and simultaneously tests the long-run and short-run relationship for five selected developed countries. The authors employ annual data from 1981 to 2016. They find that HIV prevalence has a significant impact on health expenditure in the short-run and long-run in all five countries using the linear model and four of the countries in the nonlinear model. They find that HIV/AIDS prevalence has a significant short-run and long-run asymmetric impact on health expenditure of almost all selected developed economies.Design/methodology/approachThe authors are employing two linear and nonlinear ARDL models and simultaneously test the long-run and short-run relationship for five selected developed countries.FindingsThe authors find that HIV/AIDS prevalence has a significant short-run and long-run asymmetric impact on health expenditure of almost all selected developed economies.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first research work that empirically examines the link between HIV prevalence and health expenditure for this group of countries using linear and nonlinear ARDL approach for short run and long run.

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