Estimating individual promotional campaign impacts through Bayesian inference

2014 ◽  
Vol 31 (6/7) ◽  
pp. 541-552
Author(s):  
Keith Becker ◽  
Jim Sprigg ◽  
Alex Cosmas
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Inference ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Sparse Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Current State ◽  
State Of Practice ◽  
Promotional Campaign ◽  
Future Work ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to estimate individual promotional campaign impacts through Bayesian inference. Conventional statistics have worked well for analyzing the impact of direct marketing promotions on purchase behavior. However, many modern marketing programs must drive multiple purchase objectives, requiring more precise arbitration between multiple offers and collection of more data with which to differentiate individuals. This often results in datasets that are highly dimensional, yet also sparse, straining the power of statistical methods to properly estimate the effect of promotional treatments. Design/methodology/approach – Improvements in computing power have enabled new techniques for predicting individual behavior. This work investigates a probabilistic machine-learned Bayesian approach to predict individual impacts driven by promotional campaign offers for a leading global travel and hospitality chain. Comparisons were made to a linear regression, representative of the current state of practice. Findings – The findings of this work focus on comparing a machine-learned Bayesian approach with linear regression (which is representative of the current state of practice among industry practitioners) in the analysis of a promotional campaign across three key areas: highly dimensional data, sparse data and likelihood matching. Research limitations/implications – Because the findings are based on a single campaign, future work includes generalizing results across multiple promotional campaigns. Also of interest for future work are comparisons of the technique developed here with other techniques from academia. Practical implications – Because the Bayesian approach allows estimation of the influence of the promotion for each hypothetical customer’s set of promotional attributes, even when no exact look-alikes exist in the control group, a number of possible applications exist. These include optimal campaign design (given the ability to estimate the promotional attributes that are likely to drive the greatest incremental spend in a hypothetical deployment) and operationalizing efficient audience selection given the model’s individualized estimates, reducing the risk of marketing overcommunication, which can prompt costly unsubscriptions. Originality/value – The original contribution is the application of machine-learning to Bayesian Belief Network construction in the context of analyzing a multi-channel promotional campaign’s impact on individual customers. This is of value to practitioners seeking alternatives for campaign analysis for applications in which more commonly used models are not well-suited, such as the three key areas that this paper highlights: highly dimensional data, sparse data and likelihood matching.

Health, happiness and your future: using a “men’s group” format to work with homeless men in London

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 403-418
Author(s):  
Kate Thompson ◽  
Pippa Brown ◽  
Stephanie Vieira
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Psychosocial Issues ◽  
Horn Of Africa ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Health And Wellbeing ◽  
Care Services ◽  
Homeless Men ◽  
Group Members ◽  
Future Work ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to describe an intervention with a group of homeless men from the Horn of Africa, service users of the Horn of Africa Health and Wellbeing Project in London. The group was conceived by the second author who noted the presence of significant psychosocial issues for her clients, but equally their reluctance to access mainstream mental health or social care services. Design/methodology/approach Designing the group and introducing it to the men involved threw up some challenges which are explored, and the impact of the group on participants is evaluated. Findings Overall both the participants and the facilitators evaluated the group positively and it appeared to have led to lasting change for some of the group members, and this is described. The authors argue that this sort of group may be a more acceptable way to work on psychosocial issues than something more directly focused on mental health intervention. The group protocol is outlined along with suggestions for future work in this area. Originality/value This intervention represents a creative alternative to more mainstream psychological interventions for homeless or exiled men.

B2B technology adoption in customer driven supply chains

2016 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony K. Asare ◽  
Thomas G. Brashear-Alejandro ◽  
Jun Kang
Keyword(s):  
Technology Adoption ◽  
Organizational Factors ◽  
Theoretical Models ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Relational Factors ◽  
Power Trust ◽  
Comprehensive Framework ◽  
Future Work ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Business To Business

Purpose – The purpose of this article is to develop and propose a comprehensive framework that identifies the factors that influence a company’s decision to adopt business to business (B2B) technologies. Design/methodology/approach – The authors review the literature regarding technology adoption from multiple disciplines including: Supply Chain Management, Logistics, Sociology, Information Systems, Marketing and Economics. A synthesis of the review provides the foundation for developing a comprehensive model of inter-firm technology adoption. Findings – The review and synthesis finds inconsistencies in the theoretical models and constructs used in previous studies of inter-firm technology adoption. The comprehensive framework presented identifies four major categories of antecedents to technology adoption: characteristics of a technology, organizational factors, external factors and relationships. The presented model focuses attention on the inclusion of relational factors that affect the adoption of B2B technology. Research limitations/implications – An important area that has been ignored in the inter-firm adoption literature is the impact of inter-firm relationships on technology adoption. This paper emphasizes the importance of inter-firm relationships and identifies power, trust and justice as important relationships that influence the adoption of inter-firm technologies. Originality/value – The expanded framework identifies the antecedents of B2B technology adoption, which can be used as a guiding framework by both academics and practitioners. The paper also offers directions for future work in the form of propositions.

Supervisory influences on officers’ perceptions of less lethal force policy: a multilevel analysis

2014 ◽  
Vol 37 (2) ◽  
pp. 355-372 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason Robert Ingram ◽  
Robert R. Weidner ◽  
Eugene A. Paoline III ◽  
William Terrill
Keyword(s):  
Organizational Climate ◽  
Patrol Officers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lethal Force ◽  
Policies And Procedures ◽  
Data Source ◽  
Post Hoc ◽  
Future Work ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Policy Perceptions

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of sergeants’ less lethal force policy perceptions on subordinate officers’ policy perceptions. Sergeants are a critical level of supervision in police departments with respect to policy administration, particularly in regard to the use of force. Little empirical research, however, has been conducted on either officer policy perceptions or this aspect of the supervisory role. Design/methodology/approach – Surveys of 765 patrol officers and 146 patrol sergeants served as the data source. Multilevel modeling procedures were used to test for supervisory influences on officer force policy perceptions while controlling for relevant officer-level variables. Additional analyses were conducted to examine potential moderating effects for this sergeant-officer attitudinal relationship. Findings – Findings revealed that sergeant policy perceptions, views of top management, and their level of support had a significant impact on officers’ force policy perceptions. Furthermore, post hoc analyses revealed that sergeant support moderated the sergeant-officer force policy perception relationship. Research limitations/implications – The results indicate that officers’ force policy perceptions are associated with the attitudinal dispositions of sergeants. Future work could expand the focus on administrative attitudinal outcomes beyond less lethal force policies as well as other perceptions of the work environment. Practical implications – For police leaders, the findings illustrate the need to pay attention to mid-management levels and the organizational climate, as negative orientations can impact additional domains (i.e. policies and procedures) and other organizational members (i.e. subordinates). Originality/value – The study adds to the limited body of research on two accountability mechanisms of departments: administrative rulemaking and frontline supervision.

scholarly journals Order fulfillment errors and military aircraft readiness

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-87
Author(s):  
Michael Weber ◽  
Daniel Steeneck ◽  
William Cunningham
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression ◽  
Department Of Defense ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
United States Department ◽  
Order Fulfillment ◽  
Military Aircraft ◽  
Content Type ◽  
States Department ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose This paper aims to measure the effect of supply discrepancy reports (SDRs) on military aircraft readiness metrics, including aircraft availability, not mission capable supply (NMCS) hours, cannibalizations and mission-impaired capability awaiting parts (MICAP) hours. Design/methodology/approach Monthly SDR, NMCS, aircraft cannibalizations and MICAP data from 2009 to 2018 are analyzed using linear regression and independent samples t-tests to examine whether discrepant shipments negatively impact aircraft readiness. Findings Results of linear regression were significant in 4 of 12 analyses, suggesting that SDRs are a significant predictor of increased cannibalizations. Results of independent samples t-tests found MICAP hours were significantly higher on discrepant shipments compared to nondiscrepant shipments in all three analyses. Practical implications This research will increase awareness of the extent to which SDRs degrade aircraft readiness, and provide an opportunity for United States Department of Defense (DoD) supply chain leaders to take action to improve order fulfillment performance in their organizations. Originality/value Little research has been done investigating the impact of SDRs within the DoD, and to the best of the authors’ knowledge, no previous study has examined the effect of SDRs on military aircraft readiness metrics.

French labour reform may be watered down further

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Labour Market ◽  
Trade Unions ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Current State ◽  
Significant Step ◽  
Promotional Campaign ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right

Significance The draft law was presented by Labour Minister Myriam El Khomry in late February and aims at introducing more flexibility in France's rigid labour market. The government has led a promotional campaign in favour of the reform, against a backdrop of opposition from trade unions, students and public opinion. Valls has watered down the most controversial proposals but even in its current state the proposed reform would be a significant step forward. Impacts The government will need to assemble a diverse majority spanning the centre-left to the centre-right in order to pass the draft law by July. Reformist trade unions support the revised version of the law but more militant unions maintain their opposition. The right wing and the main employer association oppose the revised draft which they consider not favourable enough to companies.

Does crime affect entrepreneurship? A discussion of the current literature

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 254-272 ◽  
Author(s):  
Josh Matti ◽  
Amanda Ross
Keyword(s):  
Current Literature ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Agglomeration Economies ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Location Decision ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Current State ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose There are countless factors that affect where an entrepreneur chooses to open a business that have been studied in the literature, including local socio-economic conditions, government policy, and agglomeration economies. One important aspect to the location decision that has not received as much attention from researchers thus far is the impact of crime on entrepreneurship. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the current literature on this topic, with a particular emphasis on the empirical issues present that have likely caused the research in this area to be scarce. Design/methodology/approach The authors conduct an analysis of the current state of the literature examining the relationship between crime and entrepreneurship. Looking at what has been done in the past, as well as improvements in the data, the authors discuss what has been done and what can be done in the future. Findings The authors discuss areas related to entrepreneurship and crime that the authors see as an emerging literature, based largely on the improvements in data and identification strategies that allow the authors to answer questions that the authors previously could not. Originality/value This paper is a review of the current literature, which also discusses areas that future researchers should consider and analyze further.

scholarly journals The role of career shocks in contemporary career development: key challenges and ways forward

2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 453-466
Author(s):  
Jos Akkermans ◽  
Ricardo Rodrigues ◽  
Stefan T. Mol ◽  
Scott E. Seibert ◽  
Svetlana N. Khapova
Keyword(s):  
Career Development ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Future Research Agenda ◽  
Current State ◽  
Conceptual Clarity ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis article aims to introduce the special issue entitled “the role of career shocks in contemporary career development,” synthesize key contributions and formulate a future research agenda.Design/methodology/approachThe authors provide an introduction of the current state-of-the-art in career shocks research, offer an overview of the key lessons learned from the special issue and present several important avenues for future research.FindingsThe authors discuss how the special issue articles contribute to a better understanding of career shocks' role in contemporary career development, focusing on (1) conceptual clarity of the notion of career shocks, (2) career outcomes of career shocks, (3) mechanisms that can explain the impact of career shocks and (4) interdisciplinary connectivity.Originality/valueThis article offers a synthesis of the critical contributions made within this special issue, thereby formulating key ways to bring the field of career shocks research forward. It also provides new avenues for research.

scholarly journals The Greening of the warehousing industry in Ontario : an analytical study of the extent of present day environmental sustainability programs

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Patricia Wycher
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Sustainability ◽  
Business Strategy ◽  
Analytical Study ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Third Party Logistics ◽  
Current State ◽  
State Of Practice ◽  
Available Information ◽  
Future Work ◽  
Made In

The purpose of the paper is to explore the extent to which the Ontario warehousing industry has embraced environmental sustainability within its business strategy. This will provide a needed baseline on the current state of practice in the Province. This could also lay the foundation for future work in Ontario, particularly with respect to where improvements can be made. Data was collected through a review of Leonard’s Guide, a content analysis of publicly available information, and a survey of warehousing companies in Ontario. Multiple methods of collecting data were utilized for triangulation and to protect against the possibility not enough data would be available by one alone. The findings indicate that there have been some inroads made in implementing environmental sustainability programs within the warehousing industry of Ontario, but there is still room for improvement. The findings also indicate that third-party logistics (3PL) are more likely than warehousing/distribution companies to implement environmental sustainability programs, as are companies which had their trade areas beyond the borders of Canada.

scholarly journals Academic Motivation in Introductory Business Analytics Courses: A Bayesian Approach

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Stacey Vaziri ◽  
Baback Vaziri ◽  
Luis J. Novoa ◽  
Elham Torabi
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression ◽  
Student Perceptions ◽  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Student Motivation ◽  
Academic Motivation ◽  
Business Analytics ◽  
Instructor Rating ◽  
Music Model ◽  
Model Components ◽  
The Impact

The MUSIC (eMpowerment, Usefulness, Success, Interest, Caring) Model of Academic motivation was developed to help instructors promote student motivation in the classroom. This study examines relationships among student perceptions of motivation and effort compared with their performance in undergraduate business analytics courses. Specifically, the study will attempt to answer the questions of whether students’ scores on the MUSIC model predict or explain effort, academic performance, course rating, and instructor rating. A Bayesian approach to linear regression is used to determine and understand the impact of the MUSIC model components on the aforementioned output measures.

scholarly journals Mathematical Model To Quantify the Effects of Risk Factors on Carbapenem-Resistant Acinetobacter baumannii

2014 ◽  
Vol 58 (9) ◽  
pp. 5239-5244 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michelle W. Tan ◽  
David C. Lye ◽  
Tat-Ming Ng ◽  
Michael Nikolaou ◽  
Vincent H. Tam
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Acinetobacter Baumannii ◽  
Antibiotic Consumption ◽  
Model Fit ◽  
Defined Daily Dose ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Carbapenem Resistant ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time

ABSTRACTCarbapenem-resistantAcinetobacter baumannii(CRAB) infections are increasing, and they are associated with an increased risk of mortality in hospitalized patients. Linear regression is commonly used to identify concurrent trends, but it cannot quantify the relationship between risk factors and resistance. We developed a model to quantify the impact of antibiotic consumption on the prevalence of CRAB over time. Data were collected from January 2007 to June 2013 from our institution. Quarterly antibiotic consumption was expressed as defined daily dose/1,000 inpatient days. Six-month prevalence of CRAB was expressed as a percentage of all nonrepeatA. baumanniiisolates tested. Individual trends were identified using linear regression. Antibiotic consumption from 2007 to 2011 was input as a step function in a relationship with CRAB. Model fit was evaluated by visual inspection and the residual sum of squares. The final model was validated using the best-fit (95% confidence interval) parameter estimates and antibiotic consumption to predict CRAB prevalence from January 2012 to June 2013. Cefepime, ertapenem, and piperacillin-tazobactam consumption and CRAB prevalence increased significantly over time. CRAB prevalence was best correlated to ertapenem (use sensitive;r2= 0.76), and accounting for additional concurrent antibiotic use did not significantly improve model fit. Prospective validation with ertapenem consumption correlated well with CRAB observations, suggesting good predicting ability of the model. Our model provided the quantitative impact of antibiotic consumption on CRAB. We plan to further refine this model to account for multiple risk factors. Interventions should focus on controlling risk factors with the highest impact on resistance.

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