Ethiopia shows East Africa leadership transition risks

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Africa ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Leadership Transition ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Dynamics ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Leadership Transitions ◽  
Resistance Movement

Subject The outlook for leadership transitions in East Africa. Significance Ethiopia, Uganda and Rwanda are ruled by parties that transformed from armed liberation movements. The Ethiopian People's Democratic Revolutionary Front (EPRDF), Uganda's National Resistance Movement (NRM) and the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) all took power within a few years of one another. They maintain party-to-party contacts and run tightly-controlled states which hold regular and ostensibly multiparty elections. Ethiopia's forthcoming elections in May will be the first since the death of liberation-era Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. Its leadership transition provides signals for the region's other post-liberation states. Impacts Institutionalised leadership transitions would help provide regulatory clarity to foreign investors. Unstable transitions in any of these countries would have regional spillover effects, given cross-border political dynamics. Strong, coherent military institutions may prove an important guarantor of a stable transition, barring direct interference in politics.

Sharif puts Pakistan army's India policy on back foot

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Militant Groups ◽  
The Military

Subject Civilian-military relationship. Significance In an apparently unprecedented and coordinated governmental move, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in parliament reportedly warned the military of growing international isolation faced by Pakistan due to its failure to suppress cross-border militant groups operating out of Pakistan. That the serious concern was shared publicly at a time when India-Pakistan tensions are rising is unusually bold for Pakistan's politicians. Such warnings have been given previously, reportedly by former President Asif Ali Zardari's government (2008-13), but always in private. Impacts Kashmir's 'jihadi infrastructure' will not be dismantled any time soon. Beijing and Washington are united in pressuring Pakistan's military to avoid escalation with India. Pakistan military's Afghan policy is unlikely to be amended.

Indian attempts to curb media may deter investors

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Freedom Of Speech ◽  
Political Climate ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Media ◽  
Media Censorship ◽  
Central Level

Subject Media censorship in India. Significance The media represents one of the fastest-growing sectors of the Indian economy and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has striven to increase foreign direct investment (FDI) from the estimated 4.3 billion dollars in 2016 and 4.0 billion dollars in 2015. Yet potential investors may be wary of the difficult political climate currently surrounding the industry, as indicated by the recent case of NDTV, whose Hindi-language service was threatened with a 24-hour ban by the broadcasting authorities. Impacts Prospective foreign investors risk becoming involved in legal battles over freedom of speech. Firms advertising on television and in print could be affected by such battles. Media freedoms will be tested at both the regional and central level.

Mongolia mine move raises nationalisation fears

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Support ◽  
The State ◽  
Russian Government ◽  
Mining Company ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Main Obstacle ◽  
The Government

Subject The sale of the Erdenet mine. Significance The day before parliamentary elections in June last year, Prime Minister Saikhanbileg Chimed announced the sale of 49% of shares held by the Russian government in the Erdenet Mining Corporation and the Mongolrostsvetmet mining company to Mongolia Copper Corporation, an unknown private Mongolian company. Subsequent parliamentary inquiry concluded that the sale was unconstitutional and the government ordered the shares transferred to the state on February 16 this year. The government’s actions received wide public support while polls reveal that the electorate views corruption as the main obstacle to Mongolia’s development Impacts Talk of 'nationalisation' in the Western media threatens to derail Mongolia's efforts to fix its image and attract foreign investors. The unusual circumstances of the sale raise suspicions of corruption and collusion between Mongolia's previous government and largest bank. The new government's will to scrutinise sale demonstrates the strength of Mongolia’s democracy.

India-Pakistan tensions will simmer but not boil over

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Economic Pressure ◽  
Kashmir Valley ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party

Significance Following the victory of his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) in elections late last month, he expressed a wish to improve relations with Pakistan's neighbour and traditional enemy India, especially on the disputed Kashmir valley. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whose Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will seek to retain power in elections early next year, congratulated Khan on his poll win. Impacts Pakistan’s military may try to influence the Afghan parliamentary election in October. The security of Indian-administered Kashmir will deteriorate. India will lobby the United States to exert further political and economic pressure on Pakistan over cross-border militancy.

Canada faces federal-provincial gridlock on policy

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
New Right ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Carbon Taxes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Border Trade ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Canadian provincial and federal politicial dynamics. Significance As Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s term gets underway, Quebec is beginning its election campaign, running to October 1; the centre-right Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) will likely perform well. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces a fractious final year, as relations worsen between the Liberal federal government and various new right-wing provincial governments. Leading issues are migration, carbon taxes, cross-border trade and right-wing provincial governments’ socially conservative and fiscally austere agendas. Impacts Failed NAFTA renegotiations would hurt Trudeau’s administration before 2019 and necessitate further post-2019 negotiations. Right-wing provincial premiers will still cooperate with Trudeau to mitigate the effect of US trade tariffs on Canada. Currently, Trudeau and the Liberals are likely to win in 2019, but opposition parties will gain votes.

Algerian army will try to guard fiefdom in transition

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Process ◽  
Energy Sector ◽  
Military Leadership ◽  
The Political ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Constitutional Order ◽  
Formal Power ◽  
The Military

Significance The military leadership has seized control of the political process, but has shown little interest in assuming formal power, often demonstrating sympathies with protesters while preserving the constitutional order. Impacts The prime minister and interim president may be pushed to quit as a concession. Elections planned for July 4 may be postponed if unrest grows. The economy may suffer as tourism will decline and foreign investors will hesitate to become involved in an uncertain energy sector.

Progress on Mongolia mining may hit election buffer

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Coal Mine ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Gold Mine ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Making Process ◽  
Run Up

Subject The outlook for Mongolia's economy. Significance Prime Minister Chimed Saikhanbileg's government has agreed concession partners to work the Tavan Tolgoi coal mine, and there are signs that an end to the impasse over the Oyu Tolgoi copper and gold mine may be close. However, parliament and the approach of elections complicate the policy-making process. A slowing economy and weak fundamentals also pose considerable risks to the country. Impacts Foreign investors will stay away should Mongolia continue to send mixed signals as to whether they are welcome. Politics is likely to become more divisive in the run-up to elections next year. Growth will continue to slow this year, and at best only hold steady in 2016.

India-Pakistan tensions up regional geopolitical risk

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Asia ◽  
Security Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Terrorist Attack ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Conventional Weapons ◽  
The Cross

Subject Outlook for India-Pakistan ties. Significance The cross-border raid conducted on the night of September 28-29 by Indian security forces apparently inside Pakistan-held Kashmir in response to a terrorist attack in Kashmir represents a continuation of a newly assertive neighbourhood security policy by India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Pakistan has denied such a strike took place, claiming it was only a case of border firing. Impacts Another India-Pakistan war (although unlikely) would involve conventional weapons. Delhi's military move will virtually eliminate bilateral commercial and cultural ties. Beijing and Washington's leverage to prevent an escalation in South Asia may prove insufficient.

Malaysia will struggle to foster economic growth

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Credit Ratings ◽  
Political Support ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fiscal Management ◽  
Finance Minister

Subject Malaysia's 2019 budget. Significance Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng’s 314.5-billion-ringgit (75-billion-dollar) budget for 2019, tabled earlier this month, will likely be approved in parliament before year-end. The first budget under Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad anticipates a budget deficit of 3.4% of GDP. Shortly after coming to power this May, Mahathir said he would give way to Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition partner Anwar Ibrahim within two years. Impacts The PH’s fiscal management will bolster confidence among foreign investors and credit ratings agencies. The lack of budget handouts to rural Malay constituencies could weaken political support for the PH in the short term. Government borrowing will likely become more expensive through 2019. The digital economy tax introduced in the budget will come into effect in 2020. Corruption investigations into missing revenues could result in further legal charges against members of the former government.

Delhi’s arbitration policy may hit foreign investment

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
State Agencies ◽  
International Arbitration ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Doing Business ◽  
Legal Risks ◽  
Ease Of Doing Business

Subject India's policies on domestic and international arbitration. Significance The proposed Indian Arbitration Council Act seeks to institutionalise domestic arbitration procedures and make the country a centre for international arbitration practice. Delhi is seeking to protect its state agencies from future accountability before international arbitration courts. Impacts Accusations of partiality against India’s judiciary are likely to increase. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will appeal to foreign investors despite the legal risks they face in India. India’s reputation for ease of doing business is likely to improve only gradually.

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