Iran impact on global oil market will be slow

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Foreign Capital ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Reserves ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Oil Markets ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Oil Demand ◽  
Conventional Oil

Significance This drop reflected concerns over China's slowdown, fears that Greece would be forced to leave the euro-area, and the agreement of a deal between Iran and the P5+1 powers (five permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany) over Iran's nuclear programme on July 14. The deal will see Iran place significant restrictions on its nuclear programme in exchange for the lifting of certain US, UN and EU sanctions, including on its energy sector. Impacts Weaker oil demand from China and prospects of increased Iranian exports will keep crude prices low. Higher Iranian crude exports will keep oil markets in surplus for longer than expected if demand remains sluggish. The possible opening of Iran's oil reserves to foreign capital and expertise would add large and low-cost conventional oil production. Even with the agreement in place, Iran will remain a high-risk country in which to invest.

Drawing negative inferences from a positive country-of-origin image

2017 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 293-310 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kashef A. Majid
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Experimental Approach ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Country Of Origin ◽  
Consumer Perceptions ◽  
The Other ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Country Of Origin Image

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore how a positive country-of-origin image will impact consumer perceptions for a high-risk product when the price is unexpectedly low. Design/methodology/approach An experimental approach was used with consumers from the USA and India. Consumers were divided into groups and given two scenarios that involved purchasing medicine that may have been counterfeit. In one scenario manufacturing took place in India, the other in Switzerland. They were asked to state the probability that certain goods could be counterfeit if they originated from the stated country and then make choices based on those perceived probabilities. An analysis of variance was conducted to test for differences between groups. Findings The authors found that in both samples consumers attached greater probabilities toward low-priced medicines if they originated from Switzerland vs India. Conversely, the higher priced medicines were more likely to be counterfeit if they originated from India vs Switzerland. When given a choice scenario consumers chose more versions of the cheaper products from India than from Switzerland. Originality/value When country-of-origin is salient then it is believed that a positive country-of-origin image will benefit products that are produced from that country. Consumers expect that more expensive products come from a country with a positive country-of-origin image. The results demonstrate that when there is a conflict between expectations of the country and the price of the product the outcome is lowered perceptions and consumption of the product. This holds true for consumers from a high-cost economy (USA) and consumers from a low-cost economy (India). The authors add to the literature on country-of-origin by demonstrating that a positive image can be a liability when consumers are wary of purchasing a high-risk product.

scholarly journals Measuring the impact of COVID-19 surveillance variables over the international oil market

2022 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-33
Author(s):  
Alshdadi et al. ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Reserves ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Markets ◽  
Long Term Impact ◽  
The Impact

Coronavirus (COVID-19) has turned to be an alarm for the whole world both in terms of health and economics. It is striking the global economy and increasing the unpredictability of the financial market in several ways. Significantly, the pandemic spread stimulated the social distancing which led to the lockdown of the countries’ businesses, financial markets, and daily life events. International oil markets have accommodated the crude oil prices during the early COVID-19 period. However, after the first 50 days, Saudi Arabia has surged the market with oil, which caused a certain decrease in crude oil prices, internationally. Saudi Arabia is one of the biggest oil reserves in the world. International trade is based on oil reservoirs which in turn, have been significantly dislodged by the pandemic. Therefore, it is crucial to study the impact of COVID-19 on the international oil market. The purpose of this study is to investigate the short-term and long-term impact of COVID-19 on the international oil market. The daily crude oil price data is used to analyze the impact of daily price fluctuation over COVID-19 surveillance variables. The correlation between surveillance variables and international crude oil prices is calculated and analyzed. Consequently, the project will help in stabilizing the expected world economic crises and particularly will provide the implications for the policymakers in the oil market.

scholarly journals Is the oil industry able to support a world that consumes 105 million barrels of oil per day in 2025?

2019 ◽  
Vol 74 ◽  
pp. 88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierre Hacquard ◽  
Marine Simoën ◽  
Emmanuel Hache
Keyword(s):  
Significant Risk ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
Environmental Pressures ◽  
Oil Supply ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
World Demand ◽  
Oil Demand ◽  
Increasing Demand ◽  
Conventional Oil ◽  
Geopolitical Risks

This paper investigates the significant risk of a supply crunch in the oil market by 2025 and beyond, given current pace of investment and growth of world demand. We focus particularly on today’s upstream sector and the challenges it faces in meeting the ever-increasing demand for oil. We then study different production scenarios for U.S. unconventional oil potential and draw conclusions on its potential capability to offset the weakening context of conventional oil supply (declining production, declining discoveries, insufficient investment, persistent geopolitical risks and environmental pressures). We conclude that with growing oil demand, the probability of an oil crunch by 2025 is far from null.

scholarly journals A spatial and integrated flood risk diagnosis

2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (5) ◽  
pp. 548-564 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oumaima Bennani ◽  
Ernest Druon ◽  
Frédéric Leone ◽  
Yves Tramblay ◽  
Mohamed El Mehdi Saidi
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Easy Access ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Evacuation Plans ◽  
Risk Indices ◽  
Buildings Vulnerability

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to identify vulnerable areas for flood hazard and to analyze stakes exposed in touristic valley of Morrocan mountains. The three goals are: methodological (low-cost diagnosis without starting data), operational (to show the risk and identify avenues of prevention in Ourika) and incentive (to reproduce this on other sectors in Morocco). Design/methodology/approach The vulnerability of three areas of the Ourika valley (the most frequented) was assessed by a hydro-geomorphological study, human frequentation surveys and risk indices at the building scale. Findings Surveys carried out in the field allowed the identification of areas with high risk, the evaluation of the buildings’ vulnerability and the frequentation of the valley. Evacuation plans, allowing easy access to potential refuges in case of flood, were finally proposed. Originality/value The reproducible, inexpensive and relevant nature of the approach (integrated and spatialized) helps in decision making and facilitating dialogue for prevention.

Coronavirus adds to longer-term drags on oil demand

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Shale Gas ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Transportation Fuels ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Oil Demand ◽  
Future Growth

Subject Oil demand dynamics. Significance The Wuhan coronavirus will alter global oil and gas demand from transport and industry in early 2020. The electrification of transport and the switching of power generation from oil to natural gas already point to oil demand peaking by the 2030s. Warmer weather on average will also alter the demand for fossil fuels for heating. Impacts Economic disruption from the coronavirus has reversed the upturn in economic sentiment that was emerging towards the end of 2019. Weak hydrocarbons pricing, combined with longer-term structural changes, will dampen the upturn in oil and gas investment. Further bankruptcies are likely amongst small and mid-cap US shale gas companies. With demand for transportation fuels set to peak in the 2030s, the oil market will depend more on petrochemicals for future growth.

Return and volatility spillovers between oil and stock markets in South Africa and Nigeria

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 484-497 ◽  
Author(s):  
Babajide Fowowe
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Volatility Spillovers ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Oil Markets ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Sub Saharan

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to empirically examine return and volatility spillovers between oil and the stock markets of Nigeria and South Africa. Design/methodology/approach The authors make use of an innovative new methodology of capturing spillovers, which is different from what many existing studies use. The authors employ the measures of return spillovers and volatility spillovers of Diebold and Yilmaz (2009, 2012), referred to as spillover indexes. The spillover index facilitates an assessment of the net contribution of one market in the information transmission mechanism of another market. Findings The empirical results show bi-directional, but weak interdependence between the South African and Nigerian stock markets returns and oil market returns. The results for volatility spillovers show independence of volatilities between Nigeria stock markets and oil markets, while weak bi-directional spillovers were found between South African equity volatilities and oil volatilities. The time-varying total spillover plots for returns and volatilities are broadly similar and show a trend that has been observed in other studies: an increasing trend during the non-crisis period, a burst in the crisis year, a maintained higher level of transmission afterwards. Originality/value Existing studies examining spillovers between oil and stock markets have largely ignored Sub-Saharan African markets. A common feature of existing studies is that they have been conducted for two groups of countries: either European and US markets; or Gulf Cooperation Council markets Thus, this study fills this gap in the literature by examining return and volatility spillovers between oil and the stock markets of Nigeria and South Africa.

scholarly journals Will COVID-19 Change Oil Markets Forever?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yelena Kalyuzhnova ◽  
Julian Lee
Keyword(s):  
Free Energy ◽  
Environmental Concerns ◽  
Oil Consumption ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Oil Markets ◽  
The World ◽  
Oil Demand ◽  
Consumption Change

The oil market is experiencing unprecedented dislocations in 2020. The industry is trying to cope with the biggest slump in demand ever recorded, as governments around the world try to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic. Will oil demand return to a pre-pandemic ‘normal’, or will the outbreak hasten a peak in oil demand? Will patterns of oil consumption change and, if so, what pressures will that place on an industry already struggling to adapt to growing environmental concerns and a demand for carbon-free energy? The paper will explore the options.

scholarly journals CHARGE-AF in a national routine primary care electronic health records database in the Netherlands: validation for 5-year risk of atrial fibrillation and implications for patient selection in atrial fibrillation screening

Open Heart ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. e001459
Author(s):  
Jelle C L Himmelreich ◽  
Wim A M Lucassen ◽  
Ralf E Harskamp ◽  
Claire Aussems ◽  
Henk C P M van Weert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Primary Care ◽  
High Risk ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Patient Selection ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Calibration Plot ◽  
Primary Care Data ◽  
C Statistic ◽  
Kaplan Meier

AimsTo validate a multivariable risk prediction model (Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology model for atrial fibrillation (CHARGE-AF)) for 5-year risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) in routinely collected primary care data and to assess CHARGE-AF’s potential for automated, low-cost selection of patients at high risk for AF based on routine primary care data.MethodsWe included patients aged ≥40 years, free of AF and with complete CHARGE-AF variables at baseline, 1 January 2014, in a representative, nationwide routine primary care database in the Netherlands (Nivel-PCD). We validated CHARGE-AF for 5-year observed AF incidence using the C-statistic for discrimination, and calibration plot and stratified Kaplan-Meier plot for calibration. We compared CHARGE-AF with other predictors and assessed implications of using different CHARGE-AF cut-offs to select high-risk patients.ResultsAmong 111 475 patients free of AF and with complete CHARGE-AF variables at baseline (17.2% of all patients aged ≥40 years and free of AF), mean age was 65.5 years, and 53% were female. Complete CHARGE-AF cases were older and had higher AF incidence and cardiovascular comorbidity rate than incomplete cases. There were 5264 (4.7%) new AF cases during 5-year follow-up among complete cases. CHARGE-AF’s C-statistic for new AF was 0.74 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.74). The calibration plot showed slight risk underestimation in low-risk deciles and overestimation of absolute AF risk in those with highest predicted risk. The Kaplan-Meier plot with categories <2.5%, 2.5%–5% and >5% predicted 5-year risk was highly accurate. CHARGE-AF outperformed CHA2DS2-VASc (Cardiac failure or dysfunction, Hypertension, Age >=75 [Doubled], Diabetes, Stroke [Doubled]-Vascular disease, Age 65-74, and Sex category [Female]) and age alone as predictors for AF. Dichotomisation at cut-offs of 2.5%, 5% and 10% baseline CHARGE-AF risk all showed merits for patient selection in AF screening efforts.ConclusionIn patients with complete baseline CHARGE-AF data through routine Dutch primary care, CHARGE-AF accurately assessed AF risk among older primary care patients, outperformed both CHA2DS2-VASc and age alone as predictors for AF and showed potential for automated, low-cost patient selection in AF screening.

scholarly journals Assessing Market Risk in BRICS and Oil Markets: An Application of Markov Switching and Vine Copula

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 30
Author(s):  
John Weirstrass Muteba Mwamba ◽  
Sutene Mwambetania Mwambi
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
South African ◽  
Asset Allocation ◽  
Markov Switching ◽  
Tail Dependence ◽  
Lower Tail ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Oil Markets ◽  
Vine Copula

This paper investigates the dynamic tail dependence risk between BRICS economies and the world energy market, in the context of the COVID-19 financial crisis of 2020, in order to determine optimal investment decisions based on risk metrics. For this purpose, we employ a combination of novel statistical techniques, including Vector Autoregressive (VAR), Markov-switching GJR-GARCH, and vine copula methods. Using a data set consisting of daily stock and world crude oil prices, we find evidence of a structure break in the volatility process, consisting of high and low persistence volatility processes, with a high persistence in the probabilities of transition between lower and higher volatility regimes, as well as the presence of leverage effects. Furthermore, our results based on the C-vine copula confirm the existence of two types of tail dependence: symmetric tail dependence between South Africa and China, South Africa and Russia, and South Africa and India, and asymmetric lower tail dependence between South Africa and Brazil, and South Africa and crude oil. For the purpose of diversification in these markets, we formulate an asset allocation problem using raw returns, MS GARCH returns, and C-vine and R-vine copula-based returns, and optimize it using a Particle Swarm optimization algorithm with a rebalancing strategy. The results demonstrate an inverse relationship between the risk contribution and asset allocation of South Africa and the crude oil market, supporting the existence of a lower tail dependence between them. This suggests that, when South African stocks are in distress, investors tend to shift their holdings in the oil market. Similar results are found between Russia and crude oil, as well as Brazil and crude oil. In the symmetric tail, South African asset allocation is found to have a well-diversified relationship with that of China, Russia, and India, suggesting that these three markets might be good investment destinations when things are not good in South Africa, and vice versa.

Hemangiopericytoma of the spinal canal

1978 ◽  
Vol 49 (6) ◽  
pp. 914-920 ◽  
Author(s):  
Darrell J. Harris ◽  
Victor L. Fornasier ◽  
Kenneth E. Livingston
Keyword(s):  
Endothelial Cells ◽  
Differential Diagnosis ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Spinal Canal ◽  
Vertebral Column ◽  
Soft Tissues ◽  
Surgical Removal ◽  
Vascular Neoplasm ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fine Print

✓ Hemangiopericytoma is a vascular neoplasm consisting of capillaries outlined by an intact basement membrane that separates the endothelial cells of the capillaries from the spindle-shaped tumor cells in the extravascular area. These neoplasms are found in soft tissues but have rarely been shown to involve the spinal canal. This is a report of three such cases. Surgical removal of the tumor from the spinal canal was technically difficult. A high risk of recurrence has been reported but in these three cases adjunctive radiotherapy appeared to be of benefit in controlling the progression of the disease. These cases, added to the six cases in the literature, confirm the existence of hemangiopericytoma involving the vertebral column with extension into the spinal canal. This entity should be included in the differential diagnosis of lesions of the spinal canal. The risk of intraoperative hemorrhage should be anticipated.

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