Early Rousseff exit in Brazil appears ever more likely

Significance The largely peaceful demonstrations are the latest chapter in the deepening political crisis. This has been triggered by the ever-expanding 'petrolao' corruption scandal centred on state-controlled oil company Petrobras, and fuelled by a savage recession: the economy shrank by 3.8% last year and will see another strong contraction in 2016. Impacts The PT's crisis will leave the centre-left space in Brazilian politics vacant. Marina Silva's Sustainability Network will likely try to occupy that space. Congressional fragmentation will undermine governance absent an ambitious political reform.

Subject Party politics in Brazil. Significance The impeachment threat facing President Dilma Rousseff is the most visible element of the profound crisis shaking Brazilian politics, driven by the Petrobras-centred corruption scandal and fuelled by the savage recession. However, its roots run deeper and reveal a society with an entrenched animosity towards the established political class, which is widely seen as out-of-touch, rent-seeking and power-hungry. Traditional parties are struggling to respond to that perception; their reaction to the crisis often makes matters worse. Impacts The new Sustainability Network party, led by former Environment Minister Marina Silva, will attract many dissatisfied voters. However, this will probably be insufficient to win the presidency in 2018. With time, the Network will become part of the established political system, possibly losing part of its appeal.


Significance These were the third large anti-government protests this year. In Sao Paulo, the country's largest city, between 135,000-350,000 people demonstrated, according to different calculations. This was more than in the previous protest day, in April, but significantly less than in March's massive demonstrations. While the corruption scandal centred on state-controlled oil company Petrobras and the recession that are fuelling dissatisfaction with Rousseff show no sign of abating, the government seems to have recovered some political breathing room in recent days. Impacts A solution to Brazil's political crisis remains distant. Even if Rousseff remains as president, policy-making will be difficult. Comprehensive economic reforms seem out of reach during her presidency.


Significance He did not name a new prime minister. Over July 25-26, Saied dismissed Prime Minister Hicham Mechichi, dissolved his government, suspended parliament for 30 days, lifted parliamentary immunity and declared himself chief prosecutor, triggering Tunisia’s worst political crisis in a decade. Impacts The Ennahda party could be persecuted once again, this time on corruption charges, as the reconciliation offered excludes its members. Tunisia may become a new ideological battleground, pitting Turkey and Qatar against the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The EU, the United States and Algeria have some influence on Tunisia and could perhaps play a moderating role.


Significance Although the changes follow old patterns developed during Museveni’s more than three decades in power, they also underscore growing anxieties about rising opposition to his rule and signal fresh efforts to contain these threats. Impacts The overexpansion of government to accommodate various interests means many positions are merely ceremonial. The question of who will succeed Museveni atop the NRM could prove a major flashpoint issue undermining party unity. Ongoing challenges in managing the COVID-19 pandemic will amplify public discontent with Museveni’s rule.


Significance Capacity has fallen by around 15% over the past four years and is below the country’s official OPEC baseline. COVID-19 and difficult executive-legislative relations in 2020-21 have interfered with oil sector project delivery. Impacts As projects flounder, Kuwait will lose market share to regional rivals. Restructuring the Kuwait Petroleum Corporation from eight operating companies to three may boost administrative efficiency. Upstream operations are unlikely to be much affected by restructuring, given the dominance of Kuwait Oil Company.


2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 400-419 ◽  
Author(s):  
Odhiambo Odera ◽  
Albert Scott ◽  
Jeff Gow

Purpose This study seeks to examine the quantity and quality of social and environmental disclosures (SEDs) of Nigerian oil companies. The study aims to analyse SED activities as reported by the oil companies in their annual reports. Design/methodology/approach The study analyses annual reports through content analysis. SED quantity is measured by alternative two units: number of sentences and number of pages. A two-point scale system to assess SED quality is used as follows: 1 = if SED is quantitative and reports specific activities of a company concerning its social and environmental responsibility; 0 = otherwise. Correlation analysis is performed among the different SED categories to identify the relationships among them. Kolmongrov–Smirnov and Shapiro–Wilk tests for normality are utilised. Findings SED activities are reported by most of the companies, and by quantity, employee information is found to be the most common type of disclosure. SED quantity and quality in the environment category is found to be overwhelmingly low despite the large-scale public concern expressed about the levels of the environmental degradation caused by oil company operations. Research limitations/implications The data collected for this study are based on one country, which controls diversity but limits the generalizability of the findings. The study is limited by the sample which includes mainly quoted companies, as they are believed to make improved disclosures because of their investor orientation and statutory obligations. Originality/value The study extends SED research by focusing on social disclosures such as employee-, community- and health- and safety-related disclosures. The study also investigates the motivations of SED providers and establishes a link between stakeholder demands/engagement and the level of disclosure.


2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 545-560 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Molnár ◽  
Anna Urbanovics

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the mechanisms behind the development of e-democracy. The contrasting cases of Italy and Hungary are selected as the case studies. With the development of new information and communication technology, more and more elements of domestic politics have been transferred to the internet-based platforms. As a response to the deep financial, economic and political crisis that Europe endured over the period 2010-2015 and as a result of the disappointment with traditional parties, new political movements and parties were created. In this paper, the Italian Five Star Movement (M5S) and the Hungarian Lehet Más a Politika (“Politics Can Be Different”) and Momentum are examined to trace the specific mechanisms that led to their establishment. Design/methodology/approach The research is based on mixed method approach, using primary and secondary data to identify and examine mechanisms conducive to the emergence of e-democracy. It uses quantitative analysis along with discourse analysis and social media analysis. The research is based on the analysis of respective parties’ social media communication. The social media analysis has been carried out by the SentiOne social listening software within the time frame of February 2018 and the end of 2019. Along different types of democracy measurements, Italy and Hungary have been analysed between 2017 and 2019. Findings The paper identifies the key preconditions for the emergence of e-democracy. These are freedom, gender gap, inequality and corruption. It also then elaborates on mechanisms, such as social media activity and citizen engagement, which lead to the emergence of e-democracy. The thesis of this article is that in Hungary (compared to Italy), elements of high-quality standards for a democracy are still missing to establish a successful political party which uses the sustainable concept for e-democracy. In Hungary, the examined parties use social media only as media representation without exploiting the possibilities lying in social media platforms. They mostly rely on these networking sites during elections and no strong sentiments can be identified in their communication. Italy is a more developed democracy where online platforms are used to engage citizens regularly. M5S actively communicates through these platforms, which is reflected in the amount of comments and strong social media activity even out of election period. Originality/value The originality of the paper is the social media analysis to test the use of social media in the parties’ political communication. The paper defines key factors and mechanisms concerning the establishment of e-democracy through inductive analysis of two contrasting cases. Italy and Hungary are two member states of the European Union (EU) with different development, their current preparation and situation regarding e-democracy give insights on how the quality of democracy determines their attitude towards cyber parties. While Italy being a founding member of the EU has become an established democracy, Hungary, after the transition, has developed into a new democracy.


2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 101-114
Author(s):  
Enaam Abdullah Mohamed

Purpose The study aims to deal with three theoretical approaches to answer the research question: Does political reform in rentier States (Kuwait as a model) lead to political stability? The first approach: Following the steps of political reform in rentier States leads eventually to political stability. The second approach: Political stability in rentier States does not necessarily lead to political reform. The third approach: In rentier States, the decisive factor in interpreting the correlation between political reform and political stability requires explaining other intermediary factors. Design/methodology/approach David Easton’s input-output model: Easton defined the political system as the interactions related to the authoritarian allocation of values in society, that is, the distribution of resources by decisions adopted by individuals, and provided a framework for analysis of the political system in which it sees an integrated circuit of a dynamic nature that starts with inputs and outputs feedback, input and output. Inputs refer to the effects of the environment on the system. Outputs are the effects of the system on the environment, which are the decisions and policies taken by the system to meet the demands. Reverse feedback is the flow of information to the system about the results of its actions, the results of its decisions and policies. Generate new inputs in the form of a demand or support, and the system’s feedback feeds a kind of movement. Findings It can be said that the future of the rentier state is particularly dangerous in the Arab countries where the problem today is the sharp drop in oil prices, which requires the need to enter into the stage of major transformations and work to bring about fundamental changes and enter into radical constitutional, economic, political and social reforms before turning them from the state rent to countries that lack political stability. Research limitations/implications The aim of this research is to present a theoretical study of political reform. The study began to consolidate the concept of political reform, which was and still is the goal of many political and social reform leaders and movements, in addition to being a major topic in political theories. Reform can be carried out by violence and by peaceful change. In any case, reform remains a humanitarian need that cannot be ignored or avoided, because the alternative is worsening and deteriorating political and social conditions. Practical implications The Arab Spring revolutions set many challenges for the Arab countries. These countries had to start political reforms. The State of Kuwait was one of the most important rentier countries that, after the Arab Spring revolutions, was concerned with ensuring that individuals and groups exercised their political rights through political participation in decision-making. It guarantees the human existence of society and protects it through the law and its legislation, and grants rights and freedoms and does not oppose it. Social implications Political reforms lead to accommodating the demands of the opposition, increasing the political participation of citizens, activating the political role of women, activating the role of civil society and increasing political mobility. Originality/value The importance of the research paper is to emphasize the term rentier state and confirm the importance of reform in rentier countries and the paper asks whether the expansion of political rights, citizenship and participation will lead to stability or instability in these countries.


Subject The impact of recent corruption allegations. Significance An investigation into tax evasion at one of Chile's leading business groups, whose principal owners are currently on remand, has led to revelations of what may prove to be quite widespread illegal political financing. The revelations raise questions about the country's reputation for transparency, and have the potential to trigger the country's worst political crisis since the restoration of democracy in 1990. Impacts The crisis of confidence may delay pending reforms and a recovery in growth and investment. The scandal is accentuating Chileans' with income inequality which, despite lower poverty, remains very high. As investigations proceed, political financing could dominate the public agenda into next year.


Subject President Francois Hollande's turnaround. Significance In the aftermath of the terrorist attacks in Paris, the presidency of Francois Hollande seems to have entered a new phase that many see as an opportunity to turn around what has been a very disappointing mandate so far. The national unity embodied by the historic gathering of January 11, where close to 4 million people took to the streets across France, has indeed partly translated into a 'January 11 spirit', reaffirming republican values of 'liberty, equality, fraternity'. This political momentum that the executive power has exploited skilfully is being sustained by an unexpected mix of positive economic developments in Europe, including the ECB's announcement that it will begin sovereign quantitative easing (QE) and the European Commission's more upbeat growth forecasts -- and in the oil market. Impacts The relative improvement of the economic prospects for France is unrelated to Hollande's actions. The structural political crisis remains as acute as ever, with the FN at a record standing in the polls. Economic issues are bound to become predominant again very quickly, once the phase of 'republican introspection' subsides.


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