Uganda reshuffles will not defuse political crisis

Significance Although the changes follow old patterns developed during Museveni’s more than three decades in power, they also underscore growing anxieties about rising opposition to his rule and signal fresh efforts to contain these threats. Impacts The overexpansion of government to accommodate various interests means many positions are merely ceremonial. The question of who will succeed Museveni atop the NRM could prove a major flashpoint issue undermining party unity. Ongoing challenges in managing the COVID-19 pandemic will amplify public discontent with Museveni’s rule.

Significance He did not name a new prime minister. Over July 25-26, Saied dismissed Prime Minister Hicham Mechichi, dissolved his government, suspended parliament for 30 days, lifted parliamentary immunity and declared himself chief prosecutor, triggering Tunisia’s worst political crisis in a decade. Impacts The Ennahda party could be persecuted once again, this time on corruption charges, as the reconciliation offered excludes its members. Tunisia may become a new ideological battleground, pitting Turkey and Qatar against the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The EU, the United States and Algeria have some influence on Tunisia and could perhaps play a moderating role.


2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 545-560 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Molnár ◽  
Anna Urbanovics

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the mechanisms behind the development of e-democracy. The contrasting cases of Italy and Hungary are selected as the case studies. With the development of new information and communication technology, more and more elements of domestic politics have been transferred to the internet-based platforms. As a response to the deep financial, economic and political crisis that Europe endured over the period 2010-2015 and as a result of the disappointment with traditional parties, new political movements and parties were created. In this paper, the Italian Five Star Movement (M5S) and the Hungarian Lehet Más a Politika (“Politics Can Be Different”) and Momentum are examined to trace the specific mechanisms that led to their establishment. Design/methodology/approach The research is based on mixed method approach, using primary and secondary data to identify and examine mechanisms conducive to the emergence of e-democracy. It uses quantitative analysis along with discourse analysis and social media analysis. The research is based on the analysis of respective parties’ social media communication. The social media analysis has been carried out by the SentiOne social listening software within the time frame of February 2018 and the end of 2019. Along different types of democracy measurements, Italy and Hungary have been analysed between 2017 and 2019. Findings The paper identifies the key preconditions for the emergence of e-democracy. These are freedom, gender gap, inequality and corruption. It also then elaborates on mechanisms, such as social media activity and citizen engagement, which lead to the emergence of e-democracy. The thesis of this article is that in Hungary (compared to Italy), elements of high-quality standards for a democracy are still missing to establish a successful political party which uses the sustainable concept for e-democracy. In Hungary, the examined parties use social media only as media representation without exploiting the possibilities lying in social media platforms. They mostly rely on these networking sites during elections and no strong sentiments can be identified in their communication. Italy is a more developed democracy where online platforms are used to engage citizens regularly. M5S actively communicates through these platforms, which is reflected in the amount of comments and strong social media activity even out of election period. Originality/value The originality of the paper is the social media analysis to test the use of social media in the parties’ political communication. The paper defines key factors and mechanisms concerning the establishment of e-democracy through inductive analysis of two contrasting cases. Italy and Hungary are two member states of the European Union (EU) with different development, their current preparation and situation regarding e-democracy give insights on how the quality of democracy determines their attitude towards cyber parties. While Italy being a founding member of the EU has become an established democracy, Hungary, after the transition, has developed into a new democracy.


Subject The impact of recent corruption allegations. Significance An investigation into tax evasion at one of Chile's leading business groups, whose principal owners are currently on remand, has led to revelations of what may prove to be quite widespread illegal political financing. The revelations raise questions about the country's reputation for transparency, and have the potential to trigger the country's worst political crisis since the restoration of democracy in 1990. Impacts The crisis of confidence may delay pending reforms and a recovery in growth and investment. The scandal is accentuating Chileans' with income inequality which, despite lower poverty, remains very high. As investigations proceed, political financing could dominate the public agenda into next year.


Subject President Francois Hollande's turnaround. Significance In the aftermath of the terrorist attacks in Paris, the presidency of Francois Hollande seems to have entered a new phase that many see as an opportunity to turn around what has been a very disappointing mandate so far. The national unity embodied by the historic gathering of January 11, where close to 4 million people took to the streets across France, has indeed partly translated into a 'January 11 spirit', reaffirming republican values of 'liberty, equality, fraternity'. This political momentum that the executive power has exploited skilfully is being sustained by an unexpected mix of positive economic developments in Europe, including the ECB's announcement that it will begin sovereign quantitative easing (QE) and the European Commission's more upbeat growth forecasts -- and in the oil market. Impacts The relative improvement of the economic prospects for France is unrelated to Hollande's actions. The structural political crisis remains as acute as ever, with the FN at a record standing in the polls. Economic issues are bound to become predominant again very quickly, once the phase of 'republican introspection' subsides.


Significance Investors are brushing off mounting political risks in Poland despite an erosion of democratic checks and balances under the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) government. In Romania, despite the rapidly escalating political crisis, the leu has strengthened slightly against the euro since the start of this year, since when the yield on benchmark ten-year Romanian local bonds has risen by 25 bps to 3.6%. This is still significantly below the 5% level before the ‘taper tantrum’ in mid-2013, which stemmed from the unexpected decision by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to end its asset purchases. Impacts After post-US election outflows, EM mutual funds are once again enjoying sizeable inflows, with EM debt funds reaching a four-month high. Some of the strain on EM currencies will be relieved by the 2.5% fall in the dollar index against a basket of its peers since end-December. Smaller export-led CEE economies will benefit from factory orders in Germany rising in December at their fastest pace in 30 months.


Subject Outlook for Tanzania's new administration. Significance In his first two months in office, President John Magufuli has been quick to tackle corruption, address falling tax revenues and improve governance. Other economic difficulties still confront his new administration, and he faces the challenge of establishing his authority, which will be vital in securing reforms in the face of vested interests and in addressing the political crisis in Zanzibar. Impacts Low cost carrier Fastjet's new routes and lower fares will help boost intra-East Africa travel, helping regional economic integration. Political cleavages, especially in Zanzibar, could provide inroads for low-level Islamist militant activity, posing moderate threats. Unlike Kenya, where risks are greater, this is unlikely to deter tourism; the sector will also benefit from higher budget allocations. Magafuli's endorsement of the African Union's proposed peacekeeping deployment in Burundi may encourage regional states to back the plan.


Subject Challenges facing the healthcare system. Significance A doctors' strike in Haiti has highlighted the parlous state of the country's health system, which is struggling to cope with successive medical crises. The health system requires a large funding injection to restore and improve medical provisions to the population, but the current political crisis looks set to prevent the development of a long-term strategy. Impacts Deteriorating healthcare may lead to an increase in migration to the Dominican Republic. Washington's decision not to fund October's election raises the risk of further delays, distracting political focus from healthcare. Electoral problems may deter some aid agencies from increasing funding, undermining healthcare assistance.


Significance The largely peaceful demonstrations are the latest chapter in the deepening political crisis. This has been triggered by the ever-expanding 'petrolao' corruption scandal centred on state-controlled oil company Petrobras, and fuelled by a savage recession: the economy shrank by 3.8% last year and will see another strong contraction in 2016. Impacts The PT's crisis will leave the centre-left space in Brazilian politics vacant. Marina Silva's Sustainability Network will likely try to occupy that space. Congressional fragmentation will undermine governance absent an ambitious political reform.


Significance The deal aims to create a Government of National Accord (GNA) to end the political crisis between the internationally recognised House of Representatives (HoR) based in Tobruk and the Tripoli-based General National Congress (GNC). However, there is strong opposition to the deal, not least from the presidents of the rival legislatures. Impacts The GNA will need to address concerns that it will be dominated by western Libyans, especially Misratans. Left unaddressed, this could open the door for renewed calls of autonomy or secessionism from the eastern Cyrenaica province. None of the Libyan factions will prioritise fighting ISG, but they will defend their territories.


Subject Divisions in financial institutions. Significance The finance ministry of the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) on December 21 called for an urgent meeting of the board of the Central Bank of Libya. More effective financial institutions could provide a strong basis for political reunification and economic revival. Yet the political crisis, corruption and pre-existing weaknesses undermine these institutions. Impacts The GNA will struggle to finance consistent basic services and implement coherent economic policies. Libyans will continue to lose confidence in the GNA, especially if the economy does not pick up. The NOC will still court international oil and gas companies to attract new investment.


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