France’s economy will fail to accelerate in 2017

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Trade Unions ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Finances ◽  
The Public ◽  
Radical Reform ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject France’s economic outlook for 2017. Significance Since 2014, growth in France has trailed that in the euro-area as a whole. After averaging a mere 0.5% per year in 2012-14, GDP growth recovered in 2015 to 1.3%, but has failed to accelerate. In 2016, GDP expanded by 1.2%, according to official estimates. GDP growth is expected to converge towards the euro-area’s average in 2017, but this is due to the expected slowdown in the euro-area rather than France’s better performance. Impacts The country will look to the new president, elected in May 2017, to reduce unemployment and mend the public finances. Nevertheless, radical reform plans are likely to meet fierce resistance, including from trade unions. Reversing the strong and long-standing erosion of France’s external competitiveness may be difficult.

scholarly journals Assessing the sustainable nature of housing-related taxation receipts: the case of Ireland

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 193-214 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diarmaid Addison Smyth ◽  
Kieran McQuinn
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Extended Period ◽  
Market Regulation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Finances ◽  
Financial Market Regulation ◽  
The Public ◽  
Recent Financial Crisis ◽  
Run Up

Purpose The Irish fiscal position was significantly affected by the recent financial crisis. Budgetary surpluses quickly gave way to significant deficits post 2007, culminating into a lengthy excessive deficit procedure and entry into a formal EU/IMF assistance programme in 2010. Much of the deterioration in the public finances was caused by a sharp decline in property-related taxes because the Irish housing market rapidly contracted. In this paper, the authors quantify the extent to which disequilibria in the housing market can affect the tax take, finding significant implications over an extended period. Design/methodology/approach The authors attempt to quantify the extent of housing-related tax windfall gains and losses in Ireland over a 30-year period as a result of disequilibrium in the housing market. This involves a three-step modelling approach where we relate property-dependent taxes to the housing market while estimating equilibrium in the latter before solving for the tax take consistent with that equilibrium. In so doing, the authors find that the fiscal position compatible with equilibrium in the housing market has at times diverged greatly from actual outturns. Findings This paper confirms the significant role played by the housing market in influencing both the tax-take and the overall fiscal position. The authors find that there have been a number of instances where excesses in the housing market have spilled over into fiscal aggregates, notably in the housing bubble period between 2003 and 2008. However, with the on-going adjustments in the housing market, it would appear that prices and volumes have overcorrected in recent years. Overall, much greater emphasis should be given to the role of the housing market in forecasting key taxation aggregates. Originality/value The recent crisis highlighted how domestic policy mistakes (both in terms of budgetary planning and financial market regulation) can greatly amplify economic shocks. Irish budgetary policy in the run up to the financial crisis of 2008/2009 was clearly based on unsustainable levels of housing-related tax receipts. This paper highlights the need for a much more granular approach in framing tax forecasts and in assessing the public finances by more explicitly factoring in housing market developments.

External factors condition Chile's economic outlook

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Balance ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
External Factors ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Electricity Prices ◽  
Local Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Copper Mines ◽  
Economic Outlook

Significance This year, Chile will face a complex mix of external factors as it seeks to reverse last year's deceleration of GDP growth. Conflicting effects on areas that include not only the trade balance but also investment, inflation and fiscal revenues make forecasts for the economy's performance this year more than usually uncertain. Impacts Industry estimates suggest that up to half of Chile's 1,000 small copper mines could be forced to close. Because some Chilean power plants use diesel, international oil prices will have an important spin-off effect on electricity prices. In coming months, local growth forecasts will be particularly sensitive to news from overseas -- especially China.

Thai junta's 2015 growth forecast to prove optimistic

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Export Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Military ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject 2015 economic outlook. Significance According to the Ministry of Finance's Fiscal Policy Office, GDP growth slowed to between 1.2% and 1.7% in 2014 from 2.9% in 2013. Data released by the Bank of Thailand on December 30 suggest that the final figure is likely to be at the lower end of the range. Recovery in the fourth quarter was modest (at an estimated 1.0%) against 0.6% in the third. The military-backed government forecasts 4.1% GDP growth this year, assuming more tourists, higher domestic demand, export growth and rapid implementation of infrastructure plans. Impacts Sluggish growth will intensify calls for elections, but the junta will not relent, especially until the royal transition has been secured. The 2014 coup may not be the last; this will maintain the long-term contractual risks for investors. Political instability could return by end-2015, dampening household consumption.

Future Nigeria cabinet will not solve economic crunch

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Agencies ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Regional Bias ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Chief Of Staff ◽  
The North ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Economic outlook for Nigeria. Significance The National Bureau of Statistics on August 26 announced that GDP growth slowed to 2.35% year-on-year in the second quarter, from 6.54% in the year-earlier period. This is the lowest figure since quarterly records began in 2006. It adds pressure on President Muhammadu Buhari to articulate a detailed, medium-term plan to revive growth. Impacts Buhari's cabinet appointments are likely to reflect the technocrat character of those recently appointed as heads of lead federal agencies. However, if personnel choices also continue to be drawn primarily from the north, domestic unease will grow over a regional bias. Despite his credentials, Buhari's new Chief of Staff Alhaji Abba Kyari may face difficulties negotiating the government's reform agenda.

Serbian government faces hurdles at home and abroad

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Minority ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Election Cycle ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Finances ◽  
The Public ◽  
Breathing Space ◽  
At Home

Subject The new government sworn in on August 11. Significance Impressive results in stabilising the public finances have bought significant breathing space, but structural reforms are lagging behind, with most of this year wasted for reforms thanks to the election cycle. Impacts Including the SPS and several ethnic minority parties in the ruling coalition will ensure a two-thirds majority in parliament. Belgrade and Prishtina may be expected to intensify efforts to tie up loose ends left over from the 2013 Brussels agreement. Most crucial of these will be the much-delayed establishment of an association/community of Serb municipalities in Kosovo. Tensions between Nikolic and Vucic will escalate as Vucic seeks to prevent Nikolic from running for a second presidential term.

Fiscal adjustment may prove painful in Uruguay

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Union ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
High Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Finances ◽  
Fiscal Adjustment ◽  
Economic Climate ◽  
The Government ◽  
First Time ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Uruguay's economic outlook. Significance The government has determined a fiscal adjustment, with tax increases for middle- and high-income earners, delays in public spending plans and a reform of military pensions, in a bid to address worsening public finances. It is the first time that the leftist Frente Amplio (FA), in government since 2005, has faced an adverse economic climate. Impacts Austerity in a context of 'stagflation' will generate political and trade union tensions. Rising unemployment will drive a deterioration in real family incomes. Growth will remain paltry this year and next.

Papua New Guinea may encounter 'resource curse'

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Papua New Guinea ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Resource Curse ◽  
New Guinea ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Recent Policy ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The economic outlook for Papua New Guinea. Significance Rating agency Moody’s on March 23 shifted Papua New Guinea (PNG) to 'negative watch', a further indication of the economic challenges facing the re-elected Peter O’Neill government as it prepares to host the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in November this year. PNG in February suffered its largest earthquake for nearly a century in areas surrounding the largest resource projects in the country. Impacts Despite a planned major expansion in LNG production, recent policy decisions suggest a troubled business environment. Reversals in economic policy, combined with the earthquake, will further depress GDP growth. Prime Minister Peter O’Neill is weaving together a large coalition which should cement his position until at least after APEC. Foreign exchange shortages will harm growth and discourage investment, due to fears that firms cannot pay dividends to foreign shareholders.

China may struggle to achieve a job-rich GDP recovery

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Export Demand ◽  
Industrial Output ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
The Government ◽  
First Time ◽  
People's Congress ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The economic outlook for China following the lifting of the COVID-19 lockdown. Significance The economic uncertainties due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic made this year’s National People’s Congress (NPC) unusually important. After GDP fell 6.8% year-on-year in the first quarter, the government for the first time announced no annual GDP growth target, indicating extreme uncertainty over the extent and durability of recovery. Impacts China’s industrial output will outpace export demand; trade tensions such as anti-dumping cases could rise. US-China tensions will rise, but both sides will be warier than last year of major moves that could jeopardise economic recovery. China’s commitment to high military spending is undiminished by its economic troubles; defence spending will rise as a share of GDP.

Israel may be heading for its third election in a year

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Not Given ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Finances ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Government

Significance On October 23, President Reuven Rivlin passed on the task of forming the government to Benny Gantz, leader of the centrist Blue and White alliance, after incumbent Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu failed. Neither the centre-left bloc nor the bloc of religious and right-wing parties (led by Netanyahu's Likud) has a majority without Yisrael Beiteinu, but so far Gantz and Netanyahu have failed to find an acceptable compromise despite pressure from Lieberman and Rivlin to form a unity administration. Meanwhile, Netanyahu himself faces an impending indictment on corruption charges. Impacts Consecutive rounds of elections will create a strain on the public finances. Netanyahu will refuse any power rotation deal where he is not given the premiership first. Another election, especially if coupled with an indictment, will accelerate a trend of public fatigue with Netanyahu.

Croatia will remain under pressure until 2020 election

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Trade Unions ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Finances ◽  
The Government ◽  
Council Presidency ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Public Sector Workers ◽  
At Home

Significance The government has capitulated to demands by trade unions to lower the retirement age despite a growing demographic imbalance and public finances under strain. In the process, the government has demonstrated its weakness and unpopularity. Impacts Surrender to the unions will encourage discontented public sector workers to seek pay rises, with teachers threatening strike action. Popular discontent with fiscal cutbacks will pose a risk to plans for Croatia to adopt the euro early next decade. Divisions at home will limit Croatia’s ability to push its political priorities when it assumes the EU Council presidency in January 2020.

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