Congo’s political elites begin electoral manoeuvres

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Activity ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Electronic Voting ◽  
Political Elites ◽  
Voting Systems ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Peacekeeping ◽  
The Government

Significance PALU’s call is the latest in a flurry of recent political activity, as Congo’s political elites scramble to cement alliances based on a newfound belief that elections, delayed since 2016, are now becoming a realistic prospect. Impacts Electronic voting systems will increase the potential for fraud. The UN peacekeeping mission’s new mandate may feature strong words but few surprises. Congo’s slight economic recovery will bolster the government.

Florida voters react to Biden's Caribbean policy

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Relief ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
The State ◽  
Pivotal Role ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Family Connections ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
The Government

Significance Many areas of the Caribbean have trade, investment and family connections with communities in Florida. As the state now plays a pivotal role in US electoral politics, crises in the region can take on added political importance for parts of Florida’s electorate. Impacts Forecasts of short-term economic recovery for Florida remain highly uncertain given the continuing impact of the pandemic. Clashing interests across the Caribbean may demand greater coordination of US policy than the government can currently offer. Healthcare and disaster relief capabilities within the state are severely overstretched and could be overwhelmed by a new crisis.

Dominican Republic tourism begins fragile recovery

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Dominican Republic ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Health Minister ◽  
Slow Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Investment Programme

Significance Accounting directly and indirectly for 16-17% of GDP in 2019, tourism is a major plank of the Dominican economy and will be key to broader economic recovery in 2021. With that in mind, the government is striving to encourage visitors back as soon as possible. Impacts Cruises are less important to the Dominican Republic than some smaller islands, but the slow recovery of that sector will be a blow. The president plans to launch an infrastructure investment programme later this year to help boost employment. The dismissal of Health Minister Plutarco Arias over alleged procurement irregularities may undermine government anti-corruption pledges.

Nigerian oil rebound vital for economic recovery

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Niger Delta ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
China And India ◽  
Relative Safety ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Interventions

Significance Despite such controversies, the government is pinning hopes for economic recovery on restoring hydrocarbons production alongside longstanding plans to reduce the country’s dependence on oil. While large international oil companies are retreating to the relative safety of the deep offshore, the government will look to new partnerships with China and India for large infrastructure projects. Impacts Employment gains in the oil sector will be marginal compared to increases in the agricultural sector. Recent state interventions against oil majors are unlikely to deter future investment. Counter-insurgency operations against Boko Haram could distract from government peace efforts in the Niger Delta.

New Cyprus parliament will be tougher to deal with

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Presidential System ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Government ◽  
Republic Of Cyprus ◽  
Parliamentary Support

Subject The May 22 parliamentary elections. Significance The elections had the lowest turnout in the history of the Republic of Cyprus and brought about significant changes in the composition of the chamber. They were conducted amid a climate of fragile economic recovery and talks with the Turkish Cypriots on reunification. The outcome was a weakening of parliamentary support for the talks and a louder voice for nationalist, anti-austerity and anti-reform views. Impacts The government that is in place will not be affected because Cyprus has a presidential system. However, the lack of a parliamentary majority could hinder the Cypriot economy's fragile recovery. Resolving the division of Cyprus problem would be a significant positive boost for the very insecure Eastern Mediterranean.

Italy's Renzi will face critical tests before year-end

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political System ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
Political Leadership ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
The Political ◽  
Deep Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Significance This is a crucial step for the government before year-end, together with long-term banking issues and slowing economic recovery. The European Commission has allowed Italy considerable fiscal flexibility; the government promises to start reducing its debt-to-GDP ratio this year. However, the slowdown could delay achieving this goal. Under this scenario, the government has to campaign for the referendum on its Senate reform. A 'yes' vote is key not only for reforming the political system, but the government's survival. Impacts A 'no' outcome would pull Italy into deep uncertainty concerning its political leadership. It would also end Renzi's premiership; a new majority could follow up to the 2018 general election. However, since Renzi is the PD leader, he is unlikely to support a new government; early elections are likely. In case of a 'yes' outcome, Renzi's premiership will be reinforced, marking a turning point to his declining popularity.

Peacekeeper withdrawal advances Abe's defence agenda

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
The Political ◽  
Security Cooperation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Peacekeeping Operations ◽  
Un Peacekeeping ◽  
Political Impact ◽  
The Government ◽  
Cover Up ◽  
Self Defence

Subject Japan's participation in UN peacekeeping operations. Significance Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s administration will withdraw Japan's Ground Self Defence Force (GSDF) mission from the UN peacekeeping operation (UNPKO) in South Sudan in May. The decision follows accusations that the government covered up evidence of the dangers the troops were facing, and raises potential questions about Japan’s commitment to its policy of a ‘proactive contribution to peace’. Impacts The announcement of withdrawal will reduce the political impact if there are casualties. Defence Minister Tomomi Inada will probably survive accusations of a cover-up, with ministry officials taking the blame. Japan will contribute personnel to UNPKOs again in future, to gain experience and earn goodwill internationally. There will be minimal implications for Japan's other security cooperation efforts, which focus on deterring China and North Korea.

Elite rivalry could destabilise South Sudan's Dinka

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Group ◽  
Political Elites ◽  
General Malaise ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South Sudanese ◽  
Communal Relations ◽  
The Government

Subject Tensions among South Sudanese political elites. Significance In January, President Salva Kiir accused his former army chief Paul Malong Awan of fomenting a new rebellion. Even if this latest escalation in the standoff between the former allies does not result in armed hostilities, it could still destabilise the government, as well as communal relations within South Sudan’s majority Dinka ethnic group, to which both men belong. Impacts Salary arrears could accelerate possible army fractures. Unrest in Greater Bahr el Ghazal could aggravate a fragile humanitarian situation. General malaise in government may see further political fissures emerge.

Bolivia's business elites have shifted to Morales

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Business Groups ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Elites ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Business Elites ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Collaborative Working ◽  
The Government

Subject Government-business relations. Significance President Evo Morales’s government has established a collaborative working relationship with the country’s most powerful business elites that belies its leftist rhetoric. This is based on an understanding that while government offers large corporate interests favourable economic conditions, business groups will refrain from conspiring against the government in the political sphere. Thus, the government has managed to minimise the sort of pro-regional tensions that characterised its first term in office (2006-10), driving a wedge between economic and political elites. Impacts The economic policies pursued by the Morales administration will continue to prove, broadly, good for business. Smaller-scale businesses have been less beneficially treated, but lack political lobbying power. Avoidance of strife with the more powerful business groups will continue to help underpin political stability.

Honduras rebound from 2020 recession will be sluggish

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Central American ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Health Situation ◽  
Increased Activity ◽  
Poor Infrastructure

Significance Hotels and restaurants, private construction and manufacturing suffered the sharpest declines. A gradual reopening of the economy since June should drive increased activity in the second half of the year unless the health situation worsens, forcing the government to back-pedal. Impacts Inflation will remain within the central bank’s target (5.5% plus or minus 1 percentage point) on the back of moderate oil prices. Corruption, violent crime and poor infrastructure will hinder Honduras’s post-pandemic economic recovery. Implementation of the Dominican Republic-Central American Free Trade Agreement will help diversify Honduras’s exports.

China may struggle to achieve a job-rich GDP recovery

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Export Demand ◽  
Industrial Output ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
The Government ◽  
First Time ◽  
People's Congress ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The economic outlook for China following the lifting of the COVID-19 lockdown. Significance The economic uncertainties due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic made this year’s National People’s Congress (NPC) unusually important. After GDP fell 6.8% year-on-year in the first quarter, the government for the first time announced no annual GDP growth target, indicating extreme uncertainty over the extent and durability of recovery. Impacts China’s industrial output will outpace export demand; trade tensions such as anti-dumping cases could rise. US-China tensions will rise, but both sides will be warier than last year of major moves that could jeopardise economic recovery. China’s commitment to high military spending is undiminished by its economic troubles; defence spending will rise as a share of GDP.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document