Italy’s populist government will hold together for now

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Migration Policy ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Yield Spreads ◽  
Content Type ◽  
European Elections ◽  
Government Relations ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
Five Star Movement ◽  
The Eu

Subject Italy's government relations. Significance Italy’s coalition partners agreed on January 10 to take in a dozen stranded migrants from the Sea Watch 3 NGO ship in Malta after the two parties initially took divergent stands on the issue. Migration has been a source of growing division between the anti-immigrant League party and the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S), among other issues such as the environment and tax. However, in the short-term, staying in government is in the interest of both parties. Impacts Government stability should see bond yield spreads between Italy and Germany stabilise. Longer-term structural reforms are likely to go unaddressed as the coalition partners turn their focus to European elections. The EU could be forced to accommodate Italy’s migration policy, particularly with respect to the redistribution of migrants.

Italy’s new coalition should give short-term stability

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Immigration Policy ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
The United States ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Five Star Movement ◽  
Right Wing Populism ◽  
The Eu

Subject Italy's new government. Significance The threat of an immediate general election from which Matteo Salvini’s League would emerge at the head of a nationalist alliance appears to have been avoided. His former allies, the Five Star Movement (M5S), have shifted their alliance leftwards, going into government with the Democratic Party (PD) and the smaller Free and Equal party. The coalition should be more pro-EU and more fiscally responsible than its populist predecessor. Its durability, however, is very fragile. Impacts The new government will adopt a pro-EU stance when it comes to relations with such countries as Russia, China and the United States. The EU will likely be more accommodating towards Italy’s concerns with immigration policy, now that a pro-EU government is in Rome. The fall of the League is for now a blow to momentum for right-wing populism across the EU.

EU elections could bolster Euroscepticism

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ad Hoc ◽  
European Parliament ◽  
Content Type ◽  
European Elections ◽  
Government Relations ◽  
Election Results ◽  
The Uk ◽  
European Parliament Elections ◽  
Policy Proposals ◽  
The Eu

Subject European Parliament elections. Significance Opinion polls suggest the European elections, which are due to take place across the EU from May 23-26, will produce a European Parliament (EP) that is more fragmented than ever before. That will make it harder for the EU to push through some important policy priorities, from climate change to immigration. Impacts EP election results could have a significant impact on future government relations in Italy and Germany. Despite the rise of LREM, France is set to have a diminished role in the next EP if the Republican and Socialist parties perform badly. The necessity of ad-hoc coalitions for specific policy proposals will increase. Significant gains for the UK Brexit Party could have a decisive influence on the Conservative and Labour party’s Brexit strategy.

Reducing Implicit Liabilities: The New Stability Pact Will (Moderately) Help

2006 ◽  
Vol 55 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Buti ◽  
João Nogueira Martins
Keyword(s):  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Member States ◽  
Stability Pact ◽  
Structural Measures ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Eu

AbstractThe EU fiscal framework has often been criticised for not providing Member States with the right incentives to adopt structural reforms which would reduce implicit liabilities and improve sustainability. The Pact, as reformed in 2005, now includes a number of provisions that explicitly consider sustainability and the need of Member States of embarking in bold structural measures that contribute to reduce their implicit liabilities. The pressure for short-term consolidation in SGP-I has, in part, shifted towards structural reforms. Overall, the reformed SGP will moderately help Member States in adopting structural reforms and reducing their implicit liabilities.

Politics set to slow Pakistan's divestment drive

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Economic Reform ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Political Patronage ◽  
The Government ◽  
Core Condition

Subject Pakistan's divestment drive. Significance Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's government describes divestment of public sector enterprises (PSEs), involving 69 firms, as an essential part of its 2013-18 economic reform agenda. Progress thus far is limited, but the government faces rising pressure from the IMF, which made divestment a core condition of its 6.6-billion-dollar, three-year loan in September 2013. Impacts Another government led by Sharif would continue gradual divestments after 2018. Since PSEs are an important vector for distributing political patronage, structural reforms will face stiff resistance. Divestment of profitable PSEs defeats the purpose of the exercise, but the government will use them for a short-term cash boost.

Migrants help keep Central European populists in power

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Europe ◽  
Migration Policy ◽  
Refugee Crisis ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central European ◽  
Eu Integration ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Eu

Subject Populists' exploitation of the refugee crisis in Central Europe. Significance Support for populist parties has risen after last year's refugee crisis across the EU, but nowhere have they been as successful as in Central Europe (CE). Peddling migrant fears has secured the re-election of Robert Fico's Smer (Slovakia) and the revival of Viktor Orban's Fidesz (Hungary) from a post-election popularity slump. On the back of the migration tide, populists are transforming CE's political trajectory. Impacts A united CE front will gain prominence at the EU, stoking tensions with Berlin on migration policy and the future of EU integration. The strengthened legitimacy of illiberal positions on migration will foster the emergence of imitators elsewhere in Europe. The chance of an EU-level, long-term solution to the refugee crisis will remain slim in the medium term.

Russia's economy will benefit from thaw with Trump

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Similar Action ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
Know How ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
President Elect ◽  
The Eu

Subject Russia-US relations and its impact on the Russian economy. Significance Cautious hopes of improvement in US-Russian relations have boosted investor sentiment towards the Russian economy. Improved relations have the potential to spur Russian economic recovery, backed by stabilising global oil prices and reviving domestic demand. US President-elect Donald Trump's more favourable stance give Russian assets a perceived comparative advantage over other emerging economies, encouraging short-term speculative investment. Impacts A complete or partial lifting of US sanctions would encourage the EU to take similar action. Improved relations will divert funds to Russia from other emerging markets. A renewed flow of US technology and know-how would benefit Russian financial institutions and corporates. Russian oil companies will exploit US technologies to develop Arctic deposits.

Weak consumption may thwart Slovak growth plans

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Industrial Output ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Fiscal Deficits ◽  
Consumption Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Subject The government's latest GDP expectations for 2016-19. Significance On September 19, days before surviving a parliamentary no-confidence vote, the government announced GDP projections for 2016-19, based on improvements in consumption growth and the labour market, where registered unemployment hovers at historically low levels. Despite its weakened position following the recent departure of junior coalition partner Siet, Smer-Social Democracy (SD) is upbeat about the prospects for robust GDP growth in 2016, revising its forecast upwards to 3.6% from 3.2%. Impacts Industrial output, GDP and inflationary pressures may pick up post-2018, as consumers spend more and auto industry investments create jobs. The government may miss its targets in the short term, but fiscal deficits should remain below the EU limit of 3% of GDP in 2016-18. More public-private partnerships, modelled on the Bratislava ring-road, plus EU funding, may support infrastructure investment after 2017.

Critical EU report on Turkey may trigger 'Turexit'

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Customs Union ◽  
Western Balkans ◽  
East Mediterranean ◽  
Eu Accession ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Association Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Accession Process ◽  
Economic Upturn ◽  
The Eu

Significance Turkey's faltering EU accession process looks more at risk than ever, following Enlargement Commissioner Johannes Hahn's warning that Ankara had "clearly chosen to move away from Europe, not closer to it". Hahn was presenting the European Commission's 2016 Enlargement Package, which is much more critical of Turkey than of the six Western Balkans countries that are either accession candidates like Turkey or potential candidates. Yet when it comes to terminating Turkey's candidacy, both the Turkish and EU authorities want the other to make the move. In the short term, some EU capitals fear a wave of migrants should Ankara stop cooperating in policing the Aegean; in the longer term, Turkey's economy could suffer. Impacts The EU's interest in Western Balkan security, stability and prosperity will keep enlargement to these countries on track, at least formally. However, the Dutch referendum vote against Ukraine's association agreement shows popular feeling spreading in the EU against enlargement. Turkey's customs union with the EU underpins its recent economic upturn; it is hard to see it continuing without the prospect of membership. Resumed use of the East Mediterranean route depends on Turkey but also on migrants' hopes of being able to cross borders further north.

Croatia's political weaknesses will slow growth

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Model ◽  
Slow Growth ◽  
Economic Convergence ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
Business Confidence ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Eu

Significance Inflation seems to have returned to the economy following three years of near-continual deflation. After years in the doldrums, the Croatian economy is finally experiencing respectable growth and various indicators are now pointing in the right direction. However, the recovery is based on short-term factors that cannot easily be sustained, and the foundations of the economy remain weak. Impacts The current spate of growth is helping to prop up a weak government and a socio-economic model to which many Croats are averse. Respectable growth has lifted business confidence in the third quarter to its highest level since 2009. Apparent economic convergence with the rest of the EU is reviving the question whether and when Croatia should adopt the euro.

Common EU migration policy will be hard to achieve

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Illegal Immigration ◽  
Migration Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Migration Crisis ◽  
To Come ◽  
Run Up ◽  
East West ◽  
The Eu

Significance The EU is still struggling to formulate a coordinated response to the migration crisis, but it has managed to make significant cuts in illegal immigration by tightening control of its external borders and reducing the number of irregular crossings of the Mediterranean. Impacts An EU-Africa summit in November will review measures to prevent people from trying to come to Europe in the first place. The number of people crossing the Mediterranean has fallen, but for each individual attempting the journey the risk of dying has increased. The sense of being abandoned by other EU countries could boost Euroscepticism in the run-up to next year’s election in Italy. Conflicts over migration policy are likely to deepen the east-west divide within the EU.

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