Guyana election doubts spark international concern

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Community ◽  
Focus Attention ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Election Result ◽  
Oil Revenues ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance These results indicate that the incumbent A Partnership for National Unity-Alliance for Change (APNU-AFC) coalition has narrowly won re-election, returning David Granger as president for another term. However, opposition parties have contested the results, with the international community also voicing concerns about the conduct and outcome of the elections. Impacts The contested election count is likely to lead to an overhaul of GECOM staffing and procedures once the current dispute is settled. Companies are set to hold off new investments in Guyana until the incoming government and policy stance are confirmed. The fraud allegations will also focus attention on May elections in neighbouring Suriname, whose ruling party is also seeking re-election. Control over expected windfall oil revenues will make this election result especially hotly contested.

Italy’s elections threaten the cohesion of the right

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Policy Framework ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Election Result ◽  
Dominant Party ◽  
Strong Position ◽  
Business Confidence ◽  
Election Results ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Right

Significance The results have destabilised relations within the alliance involving the League, Brothers of Italy (FdI) and Forza Italia (FI), and increased speculation that FI may ally with moderate parties instead. The election results reflect the popularity of Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s government of national unity. Impacts The stability of Draghi’s government may boost Italy’s chances of influencing reforms to the EU’s fiscal policy framework. The election result reflects the wider recovery in business confidence already evidenced in Italy. Based on polling trends, Giorgia Meloni’s FdI is in a strong position to be the leading populist party after the next election. Meloni’s rise could increase tensions between FdI and the League, as the latter is accustomed to being the dominant party in the polls.

Singapore ruling party faces critical contest

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
September 11 ◽  
General Election ◽  
Foreign Workers ◽  
Founding Father ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The City ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Outlook for Singapore's 2015 general election. Significance Singapore will hold a general election on September 11, its first since the death of the city-state's founding father, Lee Kuan Yew. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has braced his long-incumbent People's Action Party (PAP) for a more difficult contest at the polls than in 2011, with opposition parties expected to better the 10% share of parliamentary seats they held on the dissolution of parliament on August 25. Impacts The People's Action Party will need to define a post-Lee Kuan Yew legacy. The post-September government will need to balance popular concern over foreign workers with Singapore's need for labour. Singaporean electoral politics will become increasingly competitive.

Oromo coalition will trouble Ethiopia’s ruling party

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Addis Ababa ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
Coalition Building ◽  
National Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Home State ◽  
Democratic Dialogue ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Coalition-building ahead of Ethiopia's 2020 elections. Significance Following months of negotiations, the leaders of the three biggest Oromo opposition parties -- the Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC), Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and Oromo National Party (ONP) -- on January 3 announced the formation of the Coalition for Democratic Federalism (CDF). This new platform will pose a serious electoral challenge to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s newly formed Prosperity Party (formerly the Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF)) in Oromia, Abiy’s home state. Impacts As the OFC is already a member of the Forum for Democratic Dialogue in Ethiopia (MEDREK) opposition alliance, the CDF may also join. Ethiopia’s first-past-the-post electoral system will encourage further coalition-building, especially among opposition parties. If the CDF pushes claims of Oromo ‘ownership’ over Addis Ababa, this would complicate relations with other actors.

Kishida's 'new capitalism' revives old agenda

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Security ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Priority ◽  
Catch Up ◽  
New Capitalism ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
The Way ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance The ruling party lost seats, but not as many as predicted and it retains a comfortable majority. This clears the way for Kishida to set about implementing his economic promise: a 'new capitalism' with a greater emphasis on redistribution. Impacts The first priority is tackling COVID-19 and measures directed toward preparing for a future pandemic based on lessons learned from this one. Kishida will maintain his predecessor's focus on digitising government and society, helping Japan catch up in this crucial area. Kishida will make economic security vis-a-vis China a new national priority, entrenching the bilateral rivalry. Endorsement (if not implementation) of a centre-left agenda makes it harder for opposition parties to differentiate themselves.

Ramaphosa will face key period for reform progress

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Focus Attention ◽  
Public Enterprises ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Ramaphosa's reform challenges. Significance A recent push among ruling ANC factions to force President Cyril Ramaphosa to dismiss Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan stalled at a series of party and government meetings earlier this month. Widely seen as a proxy for undermining the president himself, the moves against Gordhan focus attention on the progress and problems of Ramaphosa’s efforts to clean up government and introduce wide-ranging economic reforms. Impacts Continuing speculation about Gordhan and changing departmental control over Eskom will undermine the utility’s new CEO. The ANC’s plans to keep SAA as a state entity will dampen investor confidence over wider SOE reforms. Despite the ANC’s travails, it will benefit from leadership changeover and turmoil in the main opposition parties.

Oil is South Sudan's last economic lifeline

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Direct Role ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
Set Up ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Economic outlook and the impact of conflict. Significance July 11 marks the fourth anniversary of South Sudan's independence in 2011. Although the country has the modest advantage of a larger oil sector than most neighbouring countries, the country remains severely underdeveloped, with meagre infrastructure and high levels of poverty. In 2013 a political crisis at the centre of government led to a split in the ruling party and the eruption of an armed conflict with the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-In Opposition (SPLM-IO) which has continued up to the present. Impacts The breakdown of peace talks between the government and SPLM-IO in March have ended plans to set up a national unity government by July. The new mediation framework involves a more direct role for donors, including the United Kingdom, Norway and the United States. Progress on reuniting parts of the ruling party may ease pressure on negotiations with the SPLM-IO.

South Africa's banks could face further political push

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Civil Society ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Deputy Minister ◽  
Passenger Rail ◽  
The Government ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Mkhwebane's proposal that the SARB should promote broad-based economic growth, rather than focus on inflation and the currency, dominated debates ahead of the ANC's policy conference between June 30-July 5. Subsequently, the ruling party determined that the SARB should be nationalised, while re-affirming its constitutionally guaranteed independence and also demanding the government set up a state bank within six months. Impacts Damaging financial revelations at state-owned enterprises such as Eskom could undermine the impetus for a state-owned bank. Opposition parties could mobilise with civil society groups to try force Mkhwebane’s resignation. Ongoing corruption allegations surrounding the Passenger Rail Agency of South Africa (PRASA) could implicate the deputy minister of finance.

Poll win for Cambodia’s ruling party could be pyrrhic

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
International Community ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Internal Affairs ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Cambodia's ruling party's hold on power. Significance Cambodia is scheduled to hold elections for the 125-seat National Assembly on July 29. The poll comes amid rising international scrutiny of the government, whose moves have attracted criticism for damaging Cambodia’s democracy. Impacts The international community would begrudgingly accept continued CPP governance, but further targeted sanctions are likely. If the CPP lost the election, and accepted the result, it would probably push for a role in a coalition government. Any legal amendments limiting foreign involvement in Cambodian internal affairs could be a risk to foreign investment.

CAR truth commission may fail to deliver

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central African Republic ◽  
International Community ◽  
Truth Commission ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Outlying Regions ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject The Central African Republic's Truth, Justice, Reconciliation and Reparations Commission. Significance The Central African Republic (CAR) parliament in late February passed a bill establishing the Truth, Justice, Reconciliation and Reparation Commission (TJRRC). The TJRRC is the main justice initiative envisaged under the February 2019 peace agreement between the government and 14 armed groups. However, the TJRRC will face significant political hurdles to delivering on its lofty premise. Impacts It is unlikely that victims will receive reparations without significant technical and financial backing from the international community. Due to its Bangui-centric approach, the TJRRC may neglect abuses committed by the government and armed groups in outlying regions. During the election period, the TJRRC could be employed as a political threat against opposition parties.

CAR election delay may weaken president

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Central African Republic ◽  
Constitutional Amendment ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Dynamics ◽  
Force Majeure ◽  
Political Turmoil ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Political dynamics around upcoming elections. Significance The Central African Republic (CAR) is considering a constitutional amendment that would extend President Faustin-Archange Touadera’s mandate should elections need to be postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Presidential and legislative elections are scheduled for December 2020 and the ruling party insists on filling a vacuum in the constitution, which does not anticipate election delays in the case of force majeure. However, opposition parties and civil society see the initiative as unjustified and potentially detrimental to stability. Impacts Election delays could facilitate embezzlement of international funds already disbursed for election preparations. A postponement might also further delay implementation of key peace deal provisions, including security and justice measures. Political turmoil and socio-economic disruptions due to the COVID-19 outbreak could provoke violence in the capital Bangui.

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