Gas price crash will compound Bolivia’s economic woes

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Santa Cruz ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Export Prices ◽  
The Government ◽  
Remittance Flows ◽  
Gas Price ◽  
Bail Out ◽  
Gas Pressures

Subject Gas pressures. Significance The fall in world oil prices, on which Bolivia’s natural gas export prices are predicated, further exacerbates the challenges facing an economy already affected badly by the COVID-19 lockdown and a reduction in likely remittance flows. The administration of interim President Jeanine Anez is looking for increased assistance from multilateral credit agencies, but this can only partly mitigate what promises to be a severe downturn in GDP growth. Impacts The COVID-19 shutdown will only gradually be lifted, starting later this month. The government will be unable to bail out companies likely to go bankrupt in the hydrocarbons sector. Santa Cruz will be the department hardest hit by the combination of COVID-19, lower oil prices and fewer remittances.

Weak Mexican peso may yet bring trade boost

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Clinton Administration ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
The United States ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Mexican Peso ◽  
Close Integration

Subject Mexico's exchange rate and trade outlook. Significance In October, the IMF reduced its 2016 GDP growth forecast for Mexico from 2.5% to 2.1%. Relatively low growth in the United States, in addition to the plunge in oil prices from mid-2014, have triggered a contraction in trade. Previous trade slumps have hit the economy hard, given its degree of openness and its close integration with the United States. Impacts With oil prices having apparently found a floor, the peso should continue to recuperate from its recent lows. Neither the government nor the opposition is likely to advocate a surge of trade protectionism. Any NAFTA renegotiation, even under a Clinton administration, would probably reduce the scope of free trade within North America.

Japan GDP growth will rely on exports and wage rises

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Sales Tax ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Will Force

Significance Foreign trade accounted for almost the entire increase, more than making up for declines in household consumption and government spending. Impacts The government will claim credit for growth, but voters will see this as theoretical unless incomes rise faster. Strong GDP growth will make it hard to argue against raising the sales tax as scheduled in 2019. Economic growth and a shrinking labour force will force employers to raise compensation eventually. Japan is vulnerable externally if oil prices rise further or the Fed hikes rates too fast.

Battle to stop Ecuador re-election reform intensifies

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Public Institutions ◽  
Constitutional Reform ◽  
Political Decision ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Political Situation ◽  
Election Reform ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Decision Making

Subject The outlook for constitutional reform and presidential re-election. Significance Since the government announced its intention to revise the constitution to allow President Rafael Correa to seek re-election in 2017, the opposition has resisted the move. Various parties and coalitions have attempted to call a referendum on the issue using mechanisms in the 2008 constitution to enable greater public participation in political decision-making. The government has used its influence over public institutions to block a referendum, fearing defeat at the polls. The outcome of the conflict remains unclear six months on from when the proposal was first announced. Impacts The fragmentation of the opposition will bolster government attempts to rebuff demands for a referendum. Denying the public the opportunity to vote on constitutional reform will undermine the legitimacy of the president and government. The economic fallout from low oil prices will complicate the government's political situation and allow for opposition gains.

External factors condition Chile's economic outlook

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Balance ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
External Factors ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Electricity Prices ◽  
Local Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Copper Mines ◽  
Economic Outlook

Significance This year, Chile will face a complex mix of external factors as it seeks to reverse last year's deceleration of GDP growth. Conflicting effects on areas that include not only the trade balance but also investment, inflation and fiscal revenues make forecasts for the economy's performance this year more than usually uncertain. Impacts Industry estimates suggest that up to half of Chile's 1,000 small copper mines could be forced to close. Because some Chilean power plants use diesel, international oil prices will have an important spin-off effect on electricity prices. In coming months, local growth forecasts will be particularly sensitive to news from overseas -- especially China.

Insecurity and drought undermine Madagascar president

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
The Political ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
African Development ◽  
The Government

Significance Rifts within the political elite are deepening, evidenced by the departure of former Prime Minister Jean Ravelonarivo -- and his cabinet -- last month. However, the installation of a new administration does not portend stability. Impacts The central bank's decision to cut its benchmark interest rate to 8.3% from 8.7% will facilitate borrowing by firms and households. This is unlikely to boost GDP growth given the countervailing effects of political volatility and low commodity prices. The UN secretary general's appeal (on an official trip earlier this month) for the government to tackle graft is unlikely to be heeded. If Madagascar experiences another coup, the Southern African Development Community bloc will likely expel it -- again.

Ghana's IMF bailout to persist despite souring ties

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bank Financing ◽  
Electricity Crisis ◽  
Manufacturing Activity ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Imf

Significance Earlier this month, the government passed a bill allowing for central bank financing of the budget deficit, contravening a core requirement in its agreement with the Fund. Earlier breaches led to the fourth tranche of the bailout (worth 114 million dollars) being withheld. Impacts Other donors will withhold aid disbursements until the impasse between Accra and the IMF is resolved. The electricity crisis will continue to undermine manufacturing activity, contributing to disappointing GDP growth. Ivory Coast's pro-business reforms mean it could attract investors deterred by Ghana's economic woes. Prolonged tensions with the IMF coupled with a deterioration its Ghana's fiscal metrics may drive a credit rating downgrade.

Pressure will mount on Mexico's external sector

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Credit Line ◽  
Growth Firms ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Fiscal Revenue ◽  
The Government ◽  
External Sector

Subject Mexico's external accounts. Significance The plunge in global oil prices represents a significant blow to the Mexican economy, particularly in terms of fiscal revenue. However, a negative impact is also showing in Mexico's external accounts. Moreover, manufacturing exports are contracting, partly due to problems in the automotive sector. Mexico's floating exchange rate is acting as an effective cushion, and its level of international reserves remains comfortable. Nonetheless, the growing external deficits may spark greater uncertainty about the economy's prospects. Impacts If market confidence deteriorates further, the government may activate the 65-billion-dollar Flexible Credit Line that it has with the IMF. The peso should rebound from the all-time nominal lows it has reached, but only after US growth firms up and the oil price stabilises. Despite the increasing external deficits, the government will not introduce protectionist measures and the opposition will not demand them.

Weak consumption may thwart Slovak growth plans

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Industrial Output ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Fiscal Deficits ◽  
Consumption Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Subject The government's latest GDP expectations for 2016-19. Significance On September 19, days before surviving a parliamentary no-confidence vote, the government announced GDP projections for 2016-19, based on improvements in consumption growth and the labour market, where registered unemployment hovers at historically low levels. Despite its weakened position following the recent departure of junior coalition partner Siet, Smer-Social Democracy (SD) is upbeat about the prospects for robust GDP growth in 2016, revising its forecast upwards to 3.6% from 3.2%. Impacts Industrial output, GDP and inflationary pressures may pick up post-2018, as consumers spend more and auto industry investments create jobs. The government may miss its targets in the short term, but fiscal deficits should remain below the EU limit of 3% of GDP in 2016-18. More public-private partnerships, modelled on the Bratislava ring-road, plus EU funding, may support infrastructure investment after 2017.

Greek economy could slip into recession again

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Private Investment ◽  
The United States ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Investment Climate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Greek Economy ◽  
Target Set ◽  
The Government

Subject Greece’s stagnating economy. Significance The economy failed to turn a corner in 2016, registering zero real GDP growth. The ambitious 2.7% GDP growth target, set for 2017 by the government and Greece’s lenders, now looks hard to achieve. However, the economy’s stabilisation, albeit at a level much lower than before the crisis, is evident. Impacts A swift end to the bailout review might lift uncertainty and improve the investment climate, allowing both domestic and private investment. Inclusion into the ECB’s quantitative easing programme would help inject additional liquidity into the economy, stimulating credit growth. Over the medium term, rising protectionism in the United States and Europe might restrict trade, reducing Greek goods and services exports.

Belarus will contest gas price as Russia's charms fade

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Energy Security ◽  
Lower Price ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Term Energy ◽  
The Government ◽  
Gas Price

Subject Arguments about gas prices as a reflection of deteriorating relations. Significance Attempts by the Belarusian government to secure a lower price for gas imported from Russia have political undertones. The government is cautiously distancing itself from Moscow while signalling an openness to improved ties with the West. A long-term energy security programme adopted in December 2015 sets out steps towards diversifying fuel imports and would, if successful, undermine Russia's role as monopoly supplier. Impacts Reduced economic reliance on Russia is likely to be accompanied by greater political frictions. A worsening relationship could prompt Moscow to consider covertly undermining the Belarusian leadership. The government is unlikely to institute democratic and human rights reforms. This reluctance to change will be a constraint on closer EU ties.

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