Germany after Merkel will become more China-sceptic

Significance While Merkel has viewed relations with China primarily in terms of economic cooperation and German interests, there is growing opposition to this approach at home, including from within her Christian Democratic Union (CDU). Germany’s stance on China appears increasingly out of step with how its international allies view Beijing. Impacts A Green victory in September’s elections would further undermine the ratification prospects of the EU-China investment deal. A more China-sceptic parliament after September could accelerate the end of Chinese tech giant Huawei’s operations in Germany. Germany policy on China after Merkel will have a significant influence on how the EU deals with China.

Significance The presidency will put Romania's isolation in the spotlight. It has no backers in the EU prepared to overlook its escalating retreat from democratic and reform commitments, and there is no sign that the United States is prepared to act as a counterweight. Impacts Romania is ill-prepared for the presidency while political warfare at home will absorb government energies. It is likely that real decision-making will reside in Brussels with Romania having no more than a ceremonial role. Dragnea’s hostility to Brussels makes a tough EU response likely in response to more creeping authoritarianism.


Significance The government has capitulated to demands by trade unions to lower the retirement age despite a growing demographic imbalance and public finances under strain. In the process, the government has demonstrated its weakness and unpopularity. Impacts Surrender to the unions will encourage discontented public sector workers to seek pay rises, with teachers threatening strike action. Popular discontent with fiscal cutbacks will pose a risk to plans for Croatia to adopt the euro early next decade. Divisions at home will limit Croatia’s ability to push its political priorities when it assumes the EU Council presidency in January 2020.


Subject India-Europe ties. Significance Negotiations between India and the EU for a free-trade agreement (FTA) are to recommence in January. These talks began in 2007 and have been paused many times -- most recently in August 2015, over the EU's banning of 700 Indian generic drugs. Impacts India's rivalry with Pakistan is the greatest impediment to South Asian economic cooperation. European partners risk alienating voters by appearing soft on immigration. India will not allow its European links to erode other key alliances, especially its defence ties with Russia.


Significance Netanyahu's plans are at least partly coordinated with US President Donald Trump’s administration. He faces opposition from the Palestinian Authority (PA), Jordan, the EU and to some degree even from his partners in the newly established national unity government. Impacts Hard-line settler leaders will likely oppose any plan as not going far enough. Netanyahu is likely to discount threats from some EU leaders of possible sanctions against Israel. Crises at home will distract Trump and mean he is unlikely to weigh in heavily to back a unilateral Israeli annexation.


Significance Rising tensions over the conflict in Libya have produced a severe crisis in French-Turkish ties and threaten to exacerbate strains in Ankara’s relations with the EU. By placing two NATO members at loggerheads, they also risks damaging the alliance's cohesiveness and it ability to plan and implement future operations. Impacts Tensions over Libya and maritime borders will further sour Turkish-EU ties and complicate attempts to reinvigorate the 2016 refugee deal. Such differences will ensure that Turkey’s EU accession process in effect remains moribund. Turkey will react furiously to additional sanctions but its scope to retaliate is limited by the EU’s importance to its foreign trade. Further tensions with Russia will derail Erdogan’s hopes of defence industry collaboration to counterbalance cooperation with the West. Distance and deployments in Syria, northern Iraq and at home limit Ankara’s ability to send large forces to Libya if conflict escalates.


Significance The Turkish government's crackdown on internal dissent, and its opposition to Kurdish groups at home and abroad have placed its NATO ally, the United States, in an awkward diplomatic position. Impacts Diminished military-to-military ties will rob the bilateral relationship of a strengthening influence. The United States will seek to mitigate the chances of a Russia-Turkey clash to avoid further regional complications. Washington will view Ankara's extraction of migration-related concessions from the EU unfavourably.


2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 169-173
Author(s):  
Andrzej Lorkowski ◽  
Robert Jeszke

The whole world is currently struggling with one of the most disastrous pandemics to hit in modern times – Covid-19. Individual national governments, the WHO and worldwide media organisations are appealing for humanity to universally stay at home, to limit contact and to stay safe in the ongoing fight against this unseen threat. Economists are concerned about the devastating effect this will have on the markets and possible outcomes. One of the countries suffering from potential destruction of this situation is Poland. In this article we will explain how difficult internal energy transformation is, considering the long-term crisis associated with the extraction and usage of coal, the European Green Deal and current discussion on increasing the EU 2030 climate ambitions. In the face of an ongoing pandemic, the situation becomes even more challenging with each passing day.


2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 (6) ◽  
pp. 3-12
Author(s):  
Zhang DONGYANG ◽  

The status and prospects of development of trade and economic relations between Ukraine and China are considered. It is proved that bilateral cooperation in the trade and economic sphere has made significant progress. In 2012–2017, China was the second largest trading partner of Ukraine after Russia. However, the problem of imbalance in imports and exports between Ukraine and China has not yet been resolved. In addition, the scale and number of projects in which Ukraine attracts Chinese investment is much less than investments from European countries and the United States. It is justified that trade and economic cooperation between Ukraine and China is at a new historical stage. On the one hand, Ukraine signed the Association Agreement with the European Union, and on January 1, 2016, the rules of the free trade zone between Ukraine and the EU entered into force. This helps to accelerate the integration of Ukrainian economy into European one. On the other hand, the global economic downturn requires the introduction of innovations in the model of cooperation. The Chinese initiative “One belt is one way” is one of the variants of the innovation model of cooperation. Its significance is to unite the Asia-Pacific region with the EU in order to join the Eurasian Economic Union, create a new space and opportunities for development and achieve prosperity with the Eurasian countries. All this forms unprecedented opportunities for development of bilateral economic and trade relations. It seems that to fully open the potential of Ukrainian economy and expand bilateral trade and economic cooperation, it is necessary to take into account such proposals as the establishment of the Sino-Ukrainian industrial park, the promotion of cooperation in the field of electronic commerce, the formation of the Sino-Ukrainian free trade zone and enhanced interaction within multilateral mechanisms (for example, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the interaction of China and the countries of Central and Eastern Europe in the 16 + 1 format).


2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (10) ◽  
pp. 1980-1996
Author(s):  
T.S. Malakhova

Subject. Foreign economic and trade ties among countries are getting tighter and less predictable in the early 21st century. This directly stems from a growing disparity of partners, especially if it goes about their future cooperation as part of integration groups or international organizations. Communities of experts suggest using various approaches to locally adjusting integration phases, especially implementing the two-speed integration in the European Union. Objectives. The study is an attempt to examine an improvement of foreign economic cooperation and suggest its implementation steps for the European Union. This all is due to considerable inner controversies and problems within the EU, which grow more serious year by year. Methods. The methodological framework comprises the historical logic, dialectical principles, scientific abstraction method. The process and system approach was especially important for justifying the implementation of the above steps. It was used to examine foreign economic relations of partners in the European Union. Results. The article sets forth the theoretical and methodological framework for the geostrategic economic bloc, including a conceptual structure model. I present steps to implement a foreign economic cooperation of partners in the EU in terms of its form. Conclusions and Relevance. Should the form of the foreign economic relations among the EU countries be implemented, counties at the periphery of the EU will be able to become active parties to the integration group.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Panagiotis E. Dimitropoulos

Purpose Over the past decades, corporate social responsibility (CSR) has been considered as a significant corporate strategy and also has been documented as a main information dissemination mechanism of corporations to shareholders, creditors and other external stakeholders. This fact makes the CSR activities and CSR performance interconnected with the quality of firms’ financial reporting. The purpose of this paper is to study the impact of CSR performance on the earnings management (EM) behaviour using a sample from 24 European Union (EU) countries summing up to 121,154 firm-year observations over the period 2003–2018. Design/methodology/approach The study uses a multi-country data set with various dimensions of CSR performance including indexes regarding workforce, community relations, product responsibility and human rights protection. The empirical analysis is conducted with panel data regressions. Findings Evidence supports the negative association between CSR and EM indicating that high CSR performing firms are associated with less income smoothing and discretionary accruals, thus with higher financial reporting quality. Practical implications Regulatory agencies in the EU could use the findings of the study for the improvement of the accounting framework via enhancing the use and publications of social and environmental responsibility information and reports. Social implications Also, the current paper could be of interest not only to academic researchers but also to potential and existing investors in European corporations. The negative association between CSR performance and EM could be used by investors in assessing the risk of firms and the quality and reliability of their financial information. Originality/value This is the first study within the EU, which considers the multi-facet characteristics of CSR on the quality of accounting earnings and offers useful policy implications for regulators and investors.


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