Sudan’s president launches re-election manoeuvres

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Crisis ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Crisis ◽  
First Response ◽  
The Government

Subject Sudan political outlook. Significance In late February, President Omar al-Bashir launched a series of reshuffles within both his government and the security forces. While the changes came amid a national crisis -- and political crackdown -- related to Sudan’s economic near-collapse, it appears that the president is more focused on consolidating his power and preparing for re-election in 2020. Impacts The government is unlikely to find quick or lasting solutions to Sudan’s deep economic difficulties. Khartoum will continue to favour a security-first response to the ongoing political crisis and popular unrest. Bashir will look to defuse international opposition to his re-election ambitions.

Libyan politics may rattle the oil sector yet again

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Budget ◽  
Military Commander ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
Oil And Gas Companies

Significance Libya’s hydrocarbons sector has seen a period of relative stability since the end in 2020 of eastern military commander Khalifa Haftar’s military offensive against Tripoli and the formation of the Government of National Unity in early 2021. Oil and gas revenues are central to the national budget -- and their control and distribution are focal points of political contention. Impacts The main risk to oil production in 2022 is the possibility of a renewed political crisis triggered by elections. Prompt payment of salaries and fees will remain important to discouraging private security forces from closing down oil infrastructure. Foreign oil and gas companies will become more cautious about new investment.

Gang violence highlights Venezuela security crisis

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Organised Crime ◽  
State Violence ◽  
Gang Violence ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Significance The government claims opposition factions linked to Guaido are behind the upsurge of ‘GEDO’ violence (Grupo Estructurado de Delincuencia Organizada, or Structured Organised Crime Group). Efforts by security forces to ‘stabilise’ GEDO-dominated communities may portend an upsurge in state violence. Impacts The Haitian president’s killing has strengthened the government narrative of externally orchestrated mercenary warfare. Concerns about state decomposition in Venezuela will add urgency to international efforts at successful dialogue. An already weakened Guaido is on the back foot following Guevara’s arrest and lacks the authority to enforce any negotiated outcomes.

Economic gloom portends instability in Zimbabwe

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South African ◽  
World Bank ◽  
Driving Force ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Market ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government ◽  
South African Rand

Significance Mawarire is the founder of the 'This Flag' movement, which has been a driving force behind a wave of demonstrations and strikes earlier this month against graft, unemployment and economic mismanagement by President Robert Mugabe's government. Impacts Import bans will adversely affect South African exporters, for whom Zimbabwe is a key regional market. Use of the South African rand in Zimbabwe will remain unpopular, due to concerns about its weakness against the dollar. The government will prioritise cash for paying the salaries of the security forces, since these underpin the regime's survival. Loans from the African Export-Import Bank will help Harare to begin paying the World Bank some of its arrears.

Burundi regime survival eclipses international status

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Violence ◽  
Forced Migration ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Constitutional Change ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regime Survival ◽  
The Government ◽  
Chief Prosecutor ◽  
International Status

Significance The decision was the latest move by the government to spurn international involvement in its political crisis. Relations between Burundi and the ICC have been deteriorating since the ICC chief prosecutor announced in April an investigation into political violence that has engulfed the country since President Pierre Nkurunziza's controversial decision to seek a third term in office. Impacts Aid suspensions or sanctions could raise the price of isolation, but implementation will require coordination, an uncertain proposition. The president and his supporters will move toward consolidating power, including through constitutional change. Burundi may withdraw its contingent of troops from the AU Mission in Somalia. Renewed insecurity would drive further forced migration above the hundreds of thousands already displaced.

South Sudan's multiple conflicts will not subside

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Sudan ◽  
Humanitarian Aid ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
South Sudanese ◽  
The Government ◽  
Sudanese Refugees

Significance South Sudan is facing severe conflict and insecurity, a prolonged political crisis, and dire economic conditions. A peace agreement signed in August 2015 is falling apart, and fighting and violence during the past year has caused the number of South Sudanese refugees in Uganda to rise to 900,000 -- with a further 375,000 in Sudan and 287,000 in Ethiopia. Earlier this year, aid agencies declared a famine situation in several counties, and appealed for more humanitarian aid and improved access. Impacts Oil output is likely to remain at, or near, 130,000-160,000 barrels per day. Juba’s fiscal situation will remain precarious, with the government unable to secure loans from donors. Unrest and limited strikes over salary arrears could increase.

IMF lending will prod Ukraine to sustain reforms

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Capital Markets ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Government Support ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
International Capital ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Capital Markets ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Government

Significance After releasing 1 billion dollars in April, the IMF is urging Ukraine to implement land and pension reforms to make it eligible for further lending tranches. The government is finding it hard to pursue controversial changes opposed by many voters and taken up as causes by the political opposition. Gontareva's resignation reflects a lack of government support and is a setback for the reformist camp. Impacts The 'economic war' emerging alongside armed conflict in the east will dent prospects for growth and reform. Failure to secure further IMF financing could accelerate the planned return to international capital markets, perhaps in the third quarter. Attempts to push through reforms such as land sales may lead to increased political strife but not a full-blown political crisis.

Ecuador’s military faces cuts as security risks build

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Organised Crime ◽  
Excessive Force ◽  
Budget Cuts ◽  
Close Attention ◽  
Security Risks ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fuel Subsidies ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Military pressures. Significance The military has become more visible in Ecuador in recent months, with soldiers and tanks deployed on the streets in October, to tackle protests over the elimination of fuel subsidies. Defence Minister Oswaldo Jarrin has become a focus of popular discontent with the security forces, which were accused of using excessive force to contain the unrest. The protests, together with increased drug trafficking and organised crime, have compounded pressures already faced by the security forces due to budget cuts, more of which are planned for 2020. Impacts Investigations into protester deaths will generate tensions between the government and security forces. Close attention will be paid to the tactics and force used by the security forces during future protests. Washington may use stronger Ecuador ties to bolster its presence in the Andean region.

Drug haul highlights Costa Rica’s security challenges

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Costa Rica ◽  
Drug Trafficking ◽  
The United States ◽  
Costa Rican ◽  
Security Strategy ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Challenges ◽  
The Government ◽  
New Infrastructure

Subject Costa Rica drugs. Significance Costa Rican police on February 15 seized more than five tonnes of cocaine in a single operation -- the country’s largest-ever drugs seizure. The haul underlines the extent to which transnational drug-trafficking organisations have infiltrated the country, compounding concerns about related impacts on crime. The government of President Carlos Alvarado is currently implementing a new security strategy, but it is unclear how effective this will be in combating drug gangs. Impacts Costa Rica will seek extra security funding from partners such as the United States. Violence in neighbouring Nicaragua will exacerbate the pressures facing security forces along the border. The Limon region will be a bellwether for security trends as new infrastructure opens up the region.

Political crisis threatens Brazil's tentative recovery

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Class ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Construction Company ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Government

Significance The requests are based on plea bargains from former executives of construction company Odebrecht. While the names in ‘Janot’s list’ have not been disclosed, several of them have leaked to the media. They include six ministers in the government of President Michel Temer, two former presidents, ten state governors, and the heads of both houses of Congress. If confirmed, this would make the list a potent bombshell for the Brazilian political class. Impacts The corruption scandal looks set to disrupt next year’s presidential election. Politicians’ disdain for accountability will fuel outrage with the political class. The ground could be fertile for a candidate claiming to be an ‘outsider’.

Prospects for Afghan peace talks are dwindling

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Confidence ◽  
Security Strategy ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Open Spaces ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Civil Unrest ◽  
The North ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Significance The attack was an attempt to undermine the nine month old national unity government headed by President Ashraf Ghani, who is already losing public confidence since the cabinet is still incomplete and the country still lacks a viable security plan. Meanwhile, Taliban gains in the north have prompted the government to arm local militias to bolster its security forces. According to UN figures, the insurgency has left 974 dead and 1,963 injured in the first four months of 2015 -- a 16% rise on 2014. Impacts Growing public discontent could open spaces for competing leaders and groups opposed to the government, threatening civil unrest. Absent a viable security strategy, NATO may slow the military drawdown, implying extended involvement. Foreign investors, especially China, could renege on their investment commitments if the Taliban continue taking new territory.

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