Towards modelling the future risk of cyclone wave damage to the world's coral reefs

Recent crises have seen large spikes in asset price risk. We propose an explanation for such panics based on self-fulfilling shifts in beliefs about risk. A negative link between the current level and the future risk of an asset price leads to a circular relationship between the stochastic process of asset price risk and the price itself. Self-fulfilling shifts in perceived risk can be coordinated around a pure sunspot or around a macro fundamental. In a risk panic, a macro fundamental can be a focal point that affects both the magnitude of the panic and subsequent shifts in perceived risk.

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Sensitivity of Future Ocean Acidification to Carbon Climate Feedbacks

10.5194/bg-2017-225 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

Richard J. Matear ◽

Andrew Lenton

Keyword(s):

Surface Water ◽

Coral Reefs ◽

Ocean Acidification ◽

Co2 Emissions ◽

Atmospheric Co2 ◽

Climate Feedbacks ◽

The Future ◽

Emissions Scenarios ◽

Atmospheric Co2 Concentrations ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Carbon-climate feedbacks have the potential to significantly impact the future climate by altering atmospheric CO2 concentrations (Zaehle et al., 2010). By modifying the future atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the carbon-climate feedbacks will also influence the future trajectory for ocean acidification. Here, we use the CO2 emissions scenarios from 4 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) with an Earth System Model to project the future trajectories of ocean acidification with the inclusion of carbon-climate feedbacks. We show that simulated carbon-climate feedbacks can significantly impact the onset of under-saturated aragonite conditions in the Southern and Arctic Oceans, the suitable habitat for tropical coral and the deepwater saturation states. Under higher emission scenarios (RCP8.5 and RCP6.0), the carbon-climate feedbacks advance the onset of under-saturation conditions and the reduction in suitable coral reef habitat by a decade or more. The impact of the carbon-climate feedback is most significant for the medium (RCP4.5) and low emission (RCP2.6) scenarios. For RCP4.5 scenario by 2100, the carbon-climate feedbacks nearly double the area of surface water under-saturated respect to aragonite and reduce by 50 % the surface water suitable for coral reefs. For RCP2.6 scenario by 2100, the carbon-climate feedbacks reduce the area suitable for coral reefs by 40 % and increase the area of under-saturated surface water by 20 %. The high sensitivity of the impact of ocean acidification to the carbon-climate feedbacks in the low to medium emissions scenarios is important because our recent commitments to reduce CO2 emissions are trying to move us on to such an emissions scenario. The study highlights the need to better characterise the carbon-climate feedbacks to ensure we do not excessively stress the oceans by under-estimating the future impact of ocean acidification.

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Plasma retinol, β-carotene and vitamin E levels in relation to the future risk of breast cancer

British Journal of Cancer ◽

10.1038/bjc.1984.50 ◽

1984 ◽

Vol 49 (3) ◽

pp. 321-324 ◽

Cited By ~ 141

Author(s):

N J Wald ◽

J Boreham ◽

J L Hayward ◽

R D Bulbrook

Keyword(s):

Breast Cancer ◽

Vitamin E ◽

The Future ◽

Future Risk ◽

Plasma Retinol ◽

Β Carotene

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Serum Myeloperoxidase Levels Are Associated With the Future Risk of Coronary Artery Disease in Apparently Healthy Individuals

Journal of the American College of Cardiology ◽

10.1016/j.jacc.2007.03.033 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 50 (2) ◽

pp. 159-165 ◽

Cited By ~ 294

Author(s):

Marijn C. Meuwese ◽

Erik S.G. Stroes ◽

Stanley L. Hazen ◽

Joram N. van Miert ◽

Jan Albert Kuivenhoven ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Coronary Artery Disease ◽

Coronary Artery ◽

Healthy Individuals ◽

The Future ◽

Future Risk ◽

Artery Disease ◽

Apparently Healthy

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The Future of Coral Reefs

Science ◽

10.1126/science.334.6062.1494-b ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 334 (6062) ◽

pp. 1494-1495 ◽

Cited By ~ 23

Author(s):

O. Hoegh-Guldberg ◽

J. C. Ortiz ◽

S. Dove

Keyword(s):

Coral Reefs ◽

The Future

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Serum Uric Acid Level as a Harbinger of Type 2 Diabetes: A Prospective Observation in Taiwan

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph17072277 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 17 (7) ◽

pp. 2277 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Wen-Chih Wu ◽

Yen-Wen Lai ◽

Yu-Ching Chou ◽

Yu-Chan Liao ◽

San-Lin You ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Type 2 Diabetes ◽

Uric Acid ◽

Serum Uric Acid ◽

Diabetes Risk ◽

Current Evidence ◽

Study Cohort ◽

The Future ◽

Future Risk ◽

The Impact

Background: Current evidence suggests an association of uric acid with diabetes risk, but it is still unclear whether uric acid is merely a risk marker or an independent risk factor. We evaluate the impact of serum uric acid (SUA) levels on the future risk of developing type 2 diabetes, independent of other factors. Methods: A population-based cohort study was conducted among 4130 participants who were found to be free of type 2 diabetes at baseline recruitment in 2002. Baseline SUA measured in 2002 was longitudinally related to the incident type 2 diabetes that occurred during the follow-up period between 2002 and 2007. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) derived from Cox proportional hazards models were used to quantify the association. Results: There was a graded increase in the incidence of type 2 diabetes among individuals with increasing levels of SUA. In the whole study cohort, compared to quartile 1, the multivariable-adjusted HRs (95% CIs) of type 2 diabetes in quartile 2, quartile 3, and quartile 4 were 1.69 (0.76–3.76), 1.86 (0.88–4.26), and 1.94 (1.05–4.05), respectively (P for trend = 0.004). This positive gradient for the risk of type 2 diabetes across quartiles of SUA was evident in both genders and across age groups. Conclusions: This study supports that high uric acid concentrations are associated with increased diabetes risk, independent of other known risk factors. These data expand on well-established associations between SUA level and metabolic syndrome, and extend the link to the future risk of type 2 diabetes.

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Birthweight and the future risk of cardiovascular disease: Does intrauterine malnutrition have a role in fetal programming?

Journal of Laboratory and Clinical Medicine ◽

10.1067/mlc.2001.120112 ◽

2001 ◽

Vol 138 (6) ◽

pp. 378-386 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

A.Selçuk Adabağ

Keyword(s):

Cardiovascular Disease ◽

Fetal Programming ◽

The Future ◽

Future Risk ◽

Intrauterine Malnutrition

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Predictive Medical Information and Underwriting

The Journal of Law Medicine & Ethics ◽

10.1111/j.1748-720x.2007.00150.x ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 35 (S2) ◽

pp. 36-39 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

John H. Dodge

Keyword(s):

Americans With Disabilities Act ◽

Medical Information ◽

Disability Insurance ◽

Insurance Companies ◽

Medical Conditions ◽

Mental Impairment ◽

Major Life ◽

The Future ◽

Future Risk ◽

Definition Of

Predictive medical information is used by underwriters to assess the future risk of a claim in medically based insurance products such as health, life, and disability insurance. Medical underwriting involves the science of evaluating medical information to determine the risk for groups of individuals with various medical conditions. In disability insurance, this involves an evaluation of medical information to predict the risk of becoming disabled.Before discussing medical underwriting, an understanding of certain terms used by disability insurance companies and the products that are available is required. The first is the definition of disability. The Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) defines disability as the following:A physical or mental impairment that substantially limits one or more of the major life activities; or has a record of such an impairment; or is regarded as having such an impairment even when no impairment exists, no substantial limitation results from the impairment, or the impairment is only substantially limiting because of the attitudes of others.

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