scholarly journals Self-Fulfilling Risk Panics

2012 ◽  
Vol 102 (7) ◽  
pp. 3674-3700 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippe Bacchetta ◽  
Cédric Tille ◽  
Eric van Wincoop
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Process ◽  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Focal Point ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Current Level ◽  
Price Risk ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Risk ◽  
Negative Link

Recent crises have seen large spikes in asset price risk. We propose an explanation for such panics based on self-fulfilling shifts in beliefs about risk. A negative link between the current level and the future risk of an asset price leads to a circular relationship between the stochastic process of asset price risk and the price itself. Self-fulfilling shifts in perceived risk can be coordinated around a pure sunspot or around a macro fundamental. In a risk panic, a macro fundamental can be a focal point that affects both the magnitude of the panic and subsequent shifts in perceived risk.

scholarly journals Is hyperfiltration associated with the future risk of developing diabetic nephropathy? A meta-analysis

Diabetologia ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 52 (4) ◽  
pp. 691-697 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. M. Magee ◽  
R. W. Bilous ◽  
C. R. Cardwell ◽  
S. J. Hunter ◽  
F. Kee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Diabetic Nephropathy ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Risk

scholarly journals Regional Effects of Perceived Risks of Harm on Cigarette Smoking among U.S. High School Seniors: Evidence from Monitoring the Future

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (17) ◽  
pp. 9120
Author(s):  
Jorge Medina
Keyword(s):  
High School ◽  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
High School Seniors ◽  
Smoking Behavior ◽  
Fixed Effects Model ◽  
Perceptions Of Risk ◽  
Regional Effects ◽  
The Future ◽  
Monitoring The Future

Overall, there has been an increasing trend in the perceived risk of harm from smoking among U.S. high school seniors. However, these perceptions of risk have been falling in recent years. This study uses regional-level panel data from the Monitoring the Future survey and a fixed effects model to estimate the effect of perceived risk on three regional measurements of smoking behavior: consumption, lifetime prevalence, and daily smoking prevalence. Elasticity measurements at regional levels show that an increase in perceived risk decreases these regional measurements of smoking behavior. Moreover, the results show that, at regional levels, these measurements of smoking behavior are more responsive to changes in the perceived risk associated with smoking than to changes in the price of cigarettes.

scholarly journals Acceptability of the Coronavirus Disease-2019 Vaccine Among Medical Students in Uganda: a Cross Sectional Study.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Marvin Kanyike ◽  
Ronald Olum ◽  
Jonathan Kajjimu ◽  
Daniel Ojilong ◽  
Grabriel Madut Akech ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Medical Students ◽  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Vaccine Hesitancy ◽  
Cross Sectional Survey ◽  
Future Health ◽  
Vaccine Acceptability ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
The Future ◽  
Global Threat

Abstract Background COVID-19 is still a major global threat and vaccination remains the long-lasting solution. Unanimous uptake of the COVID-19 vaccine is required to subsequently avert its spread. We therefore, assessed COVID-19 vaccine acceptability, hesitancy, and associated factors among medical students in Uganda. Methods This study employed an online descriptive cross-sectional survey among medical students across 10 medical schools in Uganda. A structured questionnaire as a Google form was sent to participants via WhatsApp. Data was extracted and analyzed using Microsoft Excel 2016 and STATA 16. Descriptive statistics, bivariate and multivariable analyses were performed. Results We surveyed 600 medical students, 377 (62.8%) were male. COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and acceptability were 30.7% and 37.3%, respectively. Factors associated with vaccine acceptability were being female (aOR = 1.9, 95% CI: 1.3–2.9, p = 0.001), being single (aOR = 2.1, 95% CI 1.1–3.9, p = 0.022). Very high (aOR = 3.5, 95% CI 1.7–6.9, p < 0.001) or moderate (aOR = 2.2, 95% CI 1.2–4.1, p = 0.008) perceived risk of getting COVID-19 in the future, receiving any vaccine in the past 5 years (aOR = 1.6, 95% CI 1.1–2.5, p = 0.017), and COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy (aOR 0.6, 95% CI 0.4–0.9, p = 0.036). Conclusions This study revealed low levels of acceptance towards the COVID-19 vaccine among medical students, low self-perceived risks of COVID-19, and many had relied on social media that provided them with negative information. This poses an evident risk on the battle towards COVID-19 in the future especially when these future health professions are expected to be influencing decisions of the general public towards the same.

scholarly journals Plasma retinol, β-carotene and vitamin E levels in relation to the future risk of breast cancer

1984 ◽  
Vol 49 (3) ◽  
pp. 321-324 ◽  
Author(s):  
N J Wald ◽  
J Boreham ◽  
J L Hayward ◽  
R D Bulbrook
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Vitamin E ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Risk ◽  
Plasma Retinol ◽  
Β Carotene

Crisis and European Union: Political Aspects

2012 ◽  
pp. 33-42
Author(s):  
N. Arbatova
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Focal Point ◽  
The European Union ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
Systemic Crisis ◽  
World Economic ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Economic And Financial Crisis

The focal point of the article is the future of the European Union that has been challenged by the deepest systemic crisis in its history. The world economic and financial crisis became merely a catalyst for those problems that had existed earlier and had not been addressed properly by the EU leadership. The author argues that the EU crisis can be overcome only by new common efforts of its member-states and new integrationist projects.

Technology and Disabilities in the Century Ahead

2011 ◽  
pp. 2077-2081
Author(s):  
Ray Kurzweil
Keyword(s):  
20Th Century ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Current Level ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Disabled ◽  
Speed Up ◽  
Technology Trends ◽  
Over Time

I have been involved in inventing since I was five, and I quickly realized that for an invention to succeed, you have to target the world of the future. But what would the future be like? To find out, I became a student of technology trends and began to develop mathematical models of different technologies: computation, miniaturization, evolution over time. I have been doing that for 25 years, and it has been remarkable to me how powerful and predictive these models are. Now, before I show you some of these models and then try to build with you some of the scenarios for the future—and, in particular, focus on how these will benefit technology for the disabled—I would like to share one trend that I think is particularly profound and that many people fail to take into consideration. It is this: the rate of progress—what I call the “paradigmshift rate”—is itself accelerating. We are doubling this paradigm-shift rate every decade. The whole 20th century was not 100 years of progress as we know it today, because it has taken us a while to speed up to the current level of progress. The 20t h century represented about 20 years of progress in terms of today’s rate. And at today’s rate of change, we will achieve an amount of progress equivalent to that of the whole 20th century in 14 years, then as the acceleration continues, in 7 years. The progress in the 21st century will be about 1,000 times greater than that in the 20th century, which was no slouch in terms of change.

scholarly journals Human–Automation Trust to Technologies for Naïve Users Amidst and Following the COVID-19 Pandemic

2020 ◽  
Vol 62 (7) ◽  
pp. 1087-1094
Author(s):  
Yusuke Yamani ◽  
Shelby K. Long ◽  
Makoto Itoh
Keyword(s):  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Critical Factor ◽  
Critical Factors ◽  
Trust Development ◽  
Current Review ◽  
The Future ◽  
System Information ◽  
Behavioral Evidence

Objective and background Trust is a critical factor that influences the success or failure of human–automation interaction in a variety of professional domains such as transportation, military, and healthcare. The unprecedented COVID-19 crisis will likely accelerate the implementation of automation and create unique problems involving human–automation trust for naïve users of automated technologies in the future. Method We briefly review factors that can influence the development of human–automation trust amidst and following the COVID-19 pandemic. We focus on two theories on human-automation trust and how naïve users develop and maintain their trust in unfamiliar technologies. Results The current review identifies user workload and perceived risk as critical factors that will impact human–automation trust during the COVID-19 pandemic. Both theories predict that it is important for naïve users to accumulate and analyze behavioral evidence of automated technologies to maintain appropriate trust levels as the pandemic progresses. Conclusion and application Theories of human–automation trust inform trajectories of trust development toward unfamiliar technologies for naïve users. In application, manufacturers and distributers should focus on communicating system information effectively to retain users who may be “forced” to use unfamiliar technologies during the COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals Serum Myeloperoxidase Levels Are Associated With the Future Risk of Coronary Artery Disease in Apparently Healthy Individuals

2007 ◽  
Vol 50 (2) ◽  
pp. 159-165 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marijn C. Meuwese ◽  
Erik S.G. Stroes ◽  
Stanley L. Hazen ◽  
Joram N. van Miert ◽  
Jan Albert Kuivenhoven ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Coronary Artery Disease ◽  
Coronary Artery ◽  
Healthy Individuals ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Risk ◽  
Artery Disease ◽  
Apparently Healthy

scholarly journals Serum Uric Acid Level as a Harbinger of Type 2 Diabetes: A Prospective Observation in Taiwan

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (7) ◽  
pp. 2277 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wen-Chih Wu ◽  
Yen-Wen Lai ◽  
Yu-Ching Chou ◽  
Yu-Chan Liao ◽  
San-Lin You ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Type 2 Diabetes ◽  
Uric Acid ◽  
Serum Uric Acid ◽  
Diabetes Risk ◽  
Current Evidence ◽  
Study Cohort ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Risk ◽  
The Impact

Background: Current evidence suggests an association of uric acid with diabetes risk, but it is still unclear whether uric acid is merely a risk marker or an independent risk factor. We evaluate the impact of serum uric acid (SUA) levels on the future risk of developing type 2 diabetes, independent of other factors. Methods: A population-based cohort study was conducted among 4130 participants who were found to be free of type 2 diabetes at baseline recruitment in 2002. Baseline SUA measured in 2002 was longitudinally related to the incident type 2 diabetes that occurred during the follow-up period between 2002 and 2007. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) derived from Cox proportional hazards models were used to quantify the association. Results: There was a graded increase in the incidence of type 2 diabetes among individuals with increasing levels of SUA. In the whole study cohort, compared to quartile 1, the multivariable-adjusted HRs (95% CIs) of type 2 diabetes in quartile 2, quartile 3, and quartile 4 were 1.69 (0.76–3.76), 1.86 (0.88–4.26), and 1.94 (1.05–4.05), respectively (P for trend = 0.004). This positive gradient for the risk of type 2 diabetes across quartiles of SUA was evident in both genders and across age groups. Conclusions: This study supports that high uric acid concentrations are associated with increased diabetes risk, independent of other known risk factors. These data expand on well-established associations between SUA level and metabolic syndrome, and extend the link to the future risk of type 2 diabetes.

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