Model Selection Under Limited Information Using a Value-of-Information-Based Indicator

2010 ◽  
Vol 132 (12) ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthias Messer ◽  
Jitesh H. Panchal ◽  
Vivek Krishnamurthy ◽  
Benjamin Klein ◽  
P. Douglas Yoder ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Value Of Information ◽  
Performance Indicator ◽  
Materials Design ◽  
Design Decision ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Photonic Crystal Waveguides ◽  
A Value ◽  
Systematic Strategy ◽  
The Impact ◽  
True System

Designers are continuously challenged by complexity, as well as by the excessive instantiation and execution times of models, particularly in the context of integrated product and materials design. In order to manage these challenges, a systematic strategy for evaluating and selecting models is presented in this paper. The systematic strategy is based on value-of-information for design decision making. It consists of a (i) process performance indicator (PPI) to quantify the impact of model refinement from a decision-centric perspective and (ii) a method involving model evaluation. Using this method, a least complex but valid model is evaluated, and, only if necessary, gradually refined it until the most appropriate one is selected. The systematic approach is particularly well suited for integrated product and materials design, and all other scenarios where the perfect knowledge of the true system behavior and bounds of error are not available throughout the design space. The proposed strategy is applied to the design of photonic crystal waveguides for use in a next-generation optoelectronic communication system. In this paper, it is shown that the systematic strategy based on the PPI is useful for evaluating and selecting models particularly when accuracy of the prediction or the associated error bounds are not known.

Designing Embodiment Design Processes Using a Value-of-Information-Based Approach With Applications for Integrated Product and Materials Design

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Messer ◽  
J. H. Panchal ◽  
J. K. Allen ◽  
F. Mistree ◽  
V. Krishnamurthy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Design Process ◽  
Value Of Information ◽  
Performance Indicator ◽  
Materials Design ◽  
Process Performance ◽  
Photonic Crystal Waveguides ◽  
Design Processes ◽  
Embodiment Design ◽  
A Value ◽  
Systematic Strategy

Designers are continuously challenged to manage complexity in embodiment design processes (EDPs), in the context of integrated product and materials design. In order to manage complexity in design processes, a systematic strategy to embodiment design process generation and selection is presented in this paper. The strategy is based on a value-of-information-based Process Performance Indicator (PPI). The approach is particularly well-suited for integrated product and materials design, and all other scenarios where knowledge of a truthful, i.e., perfect, design process and bounds of error are not available in the entire design space. The proposed strategy is applied to designing embodiment design processes for photonic crystal waveguides in the context of a next-generation optoelectronic communication system. In this paper, it is shown that the proposed strategy based on the Process Performance Indicator is useful for evaluating the performance of embodiment design processes particularly when accuracy of the prediction or the associated error bounds are not known.

Managing Design Process Complexity: A Value-of-Information Based Approach for Scale and Decision Decoupling

2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jitesh H. Panchal ◽  
Christiaan J. J. Paredis ◽  
Janet K. Allen ◽  
Farrokh Mistree
Keyword(s):  
Design Process ◽  
Value Of Information ◽  
Cooling System ◽  
Design Decision ◽  
Interaction Patterns ◽  
Functional Requirements ◽  
Design Processes ◽  
A Value ◽  
Complex Design ◽  
The Impact

Design processes for multiscale, multifunctional systems are inherently complex due to the interactions between scales, functional requirements, and the resulting design decisions. While complex design processes that consider all interactions lead to better designs; simpler design processes where some interactions are ignored are faster and resource efficient. In order to determine the right level of simplification of design processes, designers are faced with the following questions: a) how should complex design-processes be simplified without affecting the resulting product performance? and b) how can designers quantify and evaluate the appropriateness of different design process alternatives? In this paper, the first question is addressed by introducing a method for determining the appropriate level of simplification of design processes — specifically through decoupling of scales and decisions in a multiscale problem. The method is based on three constructs: interaction patterns to model design processes, intervals to model uncertainty resulting from decoupling of scales and decisions, and value of information based metrics to measure the impact of simplification on the final design outcome. The second question is addressed by introducing a value-of-information based metric called improvement potential for quantifying the appropriateness of design process alternatives from the standpoint of product design requirements. The metric embodies quantitatively the potential for improvement in the achievement of product requirements by adding more information for design decision making. The method is illustrated via a datacenter cooling system design example.

Managing Design-Process Complexity: A Value-of-Information Based Approach for Scale and Decision Decoupling

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jitesh H. Panchal ◽  
Christiaan J. J. Paredis ◽  
Janet K. Allen ◽  
Farrokh Mistree
Keyword(s):  
Design Process ◽  
Value Of Information ◽  
Cooling System ◽  
Design Decision ◽  
Interaction Patterns ◽  
Functional Requirements ◽  
Design Processes ◽  
A Value ◽  
Complex Design ◽  
The Impact

Design-processes for multiscale, multifunctional systems are inherently complex due to the interactions between scales, functional requirements, and the resulting design decisions. While complex design-processes that consider all interactions lead to better designs, simpler design-processes where some interactions are ignored are faster and resource efficient. In order to determine the right level of simplification of design-processes, designers are faced with the following questions: (a) How should complex design-processes be simplified without affecting the resulting product performance? (b) How can designers quantify and evaluate the appropriateness of different design-process alternatives? In this paper, the first question is addressed by introducing a method for determining the appropriate level of simplification of design-processes—specifically through decoupling of scales and decisions in a multiscale problem. The method is based on three constructs: interaction patterns to model design-processes, intervals to model uncertainty resulting from decoupling of scales and decisions, and value-of-information based metrics to measure the impact of simplification on the final design outcome. The second question is addressed by introducing a value-of-information based metric called the improvement potential for quantifying the appropriateness of design-process alternatives from the standpoint of product design requirements. The metric embodies quantitatively the potential for improvement in the achievement of product requirements by adding more information for design decision-making. The method is illustrated via a datacenter cooling system design example.

Influence of social networks on business processes’ development

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (12) ◽  
pp. 2225-2252
Author(s):  
E.V. Popov ◽  
V.L. Simonova ◽  
O.V. Komarova ◽  
S.S. Kaigorodova
Keyword(s):  
Social Networks ◽  
Social Media ◽  
Business Models ◽  
Business Processes ◽  
Digital Economy ◽  
Theoretical Understanding ◽  
Sales Channels ◽  
A Value ◽  
The Impact

Subject. The emergence of new ways of interaction between sellers and buyers, the formation of new sales channels and product promotion based on the use of digital economy tools is at the heart of improving the business processes. Social networks became a tool for development; their rapid growth necessitates theoretical understanding and identification of potential application in enterprise's business process digitalization. Objectives. We explore the role of social media in the digitalization of business processes, systematize the impact of social networks on business processes of enterprises in the digital economy. Methods. The theoretical and methodological analysis of social networks as a tool for digitalization of company's business processes rests on the content analysis of domestic and foreign scientific studies, comparison, generalization and systematization. Results. We highlight the key effects of the impact of social networks on the business processes of the company; show that the digitalization of business processes should be considered in the context of a value-based approach, aimed at creating a value through the algorithmization of company operations. We determine that social networks are one of the most important tools for digitalization of company's business processes, as they have a high organizational and management potential. We also systematize the effects of social media on company's business processes. Conclusions. We present theoretical provisions of the impact of social networks on business processes of enterprises, which will enable to model and organize ideas about the development of digital ecosystems and the formation of business models.

Simulation of the Impact of Higher Ammonia Recycle Loads Caused by Upgrading Anaerobic Sludge Digesters

2005 ◽  
Vol 40 (4) ◽  
pp. 491-499 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremy T. Kraemer ◽  
David M. Bagley
Keyword(s):  
Anaerobic Digestion ◽  
Biogas Production ◽  
Treatment Plant ◽  
Anaerobic Sludge ◽  
Content Increase ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Dynamic Simulations ◽  
Treatment Train ◽  
Temperature Liquid ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Upgrading conventional single-stage mesophilic anaerobic digestion to an advanced digestion technology can increase sludge stability, reduce pathogen content, increase biogas production, and also increase ammonia concentrations recycled back to the liquid treatment train. Limited information is available to assess whether the higher ammonia recycle loads from an anaerobic sludge digestion upgrade would lead to higher discharge effluent ammonia concentrations. Biowin, a commercially available wastewater treatment plant simulation package, was used to predict the effects of anaerobic digestion upgrades on the liquid train performance, especially effluent ammonia concentrations. A factorial analysis indicated that the influent total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN) and influent alkalinity each had a 50-fold larger influence on the effluent NH3 concentration than either the ambient temperature, liquid train SRT or anaerobic digestion efficiency. Dynamic simulations indicated that the diurnal variation in effluent NH3 concentration was 9 times higher than the increase due to higher digester VSR. Higher recycle NH3 loads caused by upgrades to advanced digestion techniques can likely be adequately managed by scheduling dewatering to coincide with periods of low influent TKN load and ensuring sufficient alkalinity for nitrification.

Psychological Impacts of COVID-19 During the First Nationwide Lockdown in Vietnam: Web-Based, Cross-Sectional Survey Study (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khanh Ngoc Cong Duong ◽  
Tien Nguyen Le Bao ◽  
Phuong Thi Lan Nguyen ◽  
Thanh Vo Van ◽  
Toi Phung Lam ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Psychological Distress ◽  
General Population ◽  
Psychological Health ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Survey Study ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Cross Sectional Survey ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Event Scale ◽  
The Impact

BACKGROUND The first nationwide lockdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic was implemented in Vietnam from April 1 to 15, 2020. Nevertheless, there has been limited information on the impact of COVID-19 on the psychological health of the public. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of psychological issues and identify the factors associated with the psychological impact of COVID-19 during the first nationwide lockdown among the general population in Vietnam. METHODS We employed a cross-sectional study design with convenience sampling. A self-administered, online survey was used to collect data and assess psychological distress, depression, anxiety, and stress of participants from April 10 to 15, 2020. The Impact of Event Scale-Revised (IES-R) and the Depression, Anxiety, and Stress Scale-21 (DASS-21) were utilized to assess psychological distress, depression, anxiety, and stress of participants during social distancing due to COVID-19. Associations across factors were explored using regression analysis. RESULTS A total of 1385 respondents completed the survey. Of this, 35.9% (n=497) experienced psychological distress, as well as depression (n=325, 23.5%), anxiety (n=195, 14.1%), and stress (n=309, 22.3%). Respondents who evaluated their physical health as average had a higher IES-R score (beta coefficient [B]=9.16, 95% CI 6.43 to 11.89), as well as higher depression (B=5.85, 95% CI 4.49 to 7.21), anxiety (B=3.64, 95% CI 2.64 to 4.63), and stress (B=5.19, 95% CI 3.83 to 6.56) scores for DASS-21 than those who rated their health as good or very good. Those who self-reported their health as bad or very bad experienced more severe depression (B=9.57, 95% CI 4.54 to 14.59), anxiety (B=7.24, 95% CI 3.55 to 10.9), and stress (B=10.60, 95% CI 5.56 to 15.65). Unemployment was more likely to be associated with depression (B=3.34, 95% CI 1.68 to 5.01) and stress (B=2.34, 95% CI 0.84 to 3.85). Regarding worries about COVID-19, more than half (n=755, 54.5%) expressed concern for their children aged <18 years, which increased their IES-R score (B=7.81, 95% CI 4.98 to 10.64) and DASS-21 stress score (B=1.75, 95% CI 0.27 to 3.24). The majority of respondents (n=1335, 96.4%) were confident about their doctor’s expertise in terms of COVID-19 diagnosis and treatment, which was positively associated with less distress caused by the outbreak (B=–7.84, 95% CI –14.58 to –1.11). CONCLUSIONS The findings highlight the effect of COVID-19 on mental health during the nationwide lockdown among the general population in Vietnam. The study provides useful evidence for policy decision makers to develop and implement interventions to mitigate these impacts. CLINICALTRIAL

scholarly journals SUPPORT FOR MANAGING PARTLY CONFIGURABLE MODULAR SYSTEMS

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 2791-2800
Author(s):  
Jarkko Pakkanen ◽  
Teuvo Heikkinen ◽  
Nillo Adlin ◽  
Timo Lehtonen ◽  
Janne Mämmelä ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Portfolio Management ◽  
Product Variety ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Modular System ◽  
Product Management ◽  
Design Decision ◽  
Product Portfolio ◽  
Modular Systems ◽  
Engineer To Order ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe paper studies what kind of support could be applied to the management of partly configurable modular systems. The main tasks of product management, product portfolio management and product variety management are defined. In addition, a partly configurable product structure and modular system are defined. Because the limited support in the literature for managing partly configurable modular systems, the article reviews previous product development cases in which authors have been involved on lessons learnt basis, i.e., if the methods and tools used in the cases could provide support for the research objective. As a result, the existing definition of the modular system should be extended by the concepts of non-module and design decision sequence description when dealing with partly configurable modular systems. This is because engineer-to-order should be made possible in cases where it brings clear added value to the customer compared to completely pre-defined solutions that may limit the customer's interest in the offering. Tools to assess the impact of changes to the product offering are required. These should be taken into account in frameworks that are used in method and tool development.

scholarly journals Determining the Role of Acidity, Fate and Formation of IEPOX-Derived SOA in CMAQ

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 707
Author(s):  
Petros Vasilakos ◽  
Yongtao Hu ◽  
Armistead Russell ◽  
Athanasios Nenes
Keyword(s):  
Significant Influence ◽  
Organic Aerosol ◽  
Liquid Water Content ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
So2 Emissions ◽  
Aerosol Acidity ◽  
A Value ◽  
Future Emission ◽  
The Impact

Formation of aerosol from biogenic hydrocarbons relies heavily on anthropogenic emissions since they control the availability of species such as sulfate and nitrate, and through them, aerosol acidity (pH). To elucidate the role that acidity and emissions play in regulating Secondary Organic Aerosol (SOA), we utilize the 2013 Southern Oxidant and Aerosol Study (SOAS) dataset to enhance the extensive mechanism of isoprene epoxydiol (IEPOX)-mediated SOA formation implemented in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model (Pye et al., 2013), which was then used to investigate the impact of potential future emission controls on IEPOX OA. We found that the Henry’s law coefficient for IEPOX was the most impactful parameter that controls aqueous isoprene OA products, and a value of 1.9 × 107 M atm−1 provides the best agreement with measurements. Non-volatile cations (NVCs) were found in higher-than-expected quantities in CMAQ and exerted a significant influence on IEPOX OA by reducing its production by as much as 30% when present. Consistent with previous literature, a strong correlation of isoprene OA with sulfate, and little correlation with acidity or liquid water content, was found. Future reductions in SO2 emissions are found to not affect this correlation and generally act to increase the sensitivity of IEPOX OA to sulfate, even in extreme cases.

Evaluation of inspection features including exposure risk using a value of information analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 36-58
Author(s):  
Domenic Di Francesco ◽  
Marios Chryssanthopoulos ◽  
Michael Havbro Faber ◽  
Ujjwal Bharadwaj
Keyword(s):  
Value Of Information ◽  
Information Analysis ◽  
Exposure Risk ◽  
Value Of Information Analysis ◽  
A Value

The influence of Hanok experience on tourists’ attitude and behavioral intention: An interplay between experiences and a Value-Attitude-Behavior model

2021 ◽  
pp. 135676672110117
Author(s):  
Choong-Ki Lee ◽  
Yvette Reisinger ◽  
Muhammad Shakil Ahmad ◽  
Yae-Na Park ◽  
Choong-Won Kang
Keyword(s):  
Behavioral Intention ◽  
Sem Analysis ◽  
Experience Economy ◽  
A Value ◽  
Functional Value ◽  
Experienced Utility ◽  
Attitude Behavior ◽  
Tourism And Hospitality ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Value Functional

This study examines the impact of Hanok experience on tourists’ attitude and behavioral intention using the experience economy ( Pine and Gilmore, 1998 ) and the experienced utility theory ( Kahneman et al., 1997 ). Specifically, the study explores how tourists’ experiences are associated with a Value-Attitude-Behavior (VAB) model in the context of a heritage tourism attraction such as Jeonju Hanok Village in South Korea. A total of 323 responses were examined using SEM analysis. The results revealed that educational, entertainment, and escapism experiences significantly influenced functional value. Functional value had a significant relationship with attitude, which was positively related to behavioral intention. The results indicate the interplay of tourists’ experiences with the VAB model. The study provides theoretical and practical implications for tourism and hospitality academics and practitioners.

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