Probabilistic Thermal Analysis of Gas Turbine Internal Hardware
This paper documents the initial development of a method to perform probabilistic thermal analyses of gas turbine internal hardware and uses the turbine interstage seal of a turbofan engine as an example. The purpose of this analysis is to investigate the variability in steady state metal temperature due to variability in the secondary flow system. In addition to quantifying the variability in metal temperature, the sensitivity of the temperature to individual input variables is determined. As a prerequisite for a probabilistic thermal analysis, a probabilistic flow analysis was executed, with variability in engine performance and hardware geometry yielding variability in mass flow rates, heat generation and local swirl velocity. These outputs were used as stochastic inputs for the probabilistic thermal analysis. The analysis was run with correlated input as well as independently varying inputs. The results of this analysis showed that the metal temperature at the tip of the seal was sensitive and highly correlated to air source temperature, as expected. The mass flow rate of air across the seal and heat transfer coefficient also affected the metal temperature. By using correlated input variability, it is shown that variability in metal temperature is ultimately caused by variability in labyrinth seal clearance.