The article researches the scenarios for the future development of the EU by 2025 proposed by the European Commission. The white paper on the future of EU looks at how Europe will change in the next decade, from the impact of new technologies on society and jobs, to doubts about globalization, security concerns and the rise of populism. The European Commission emphasizes that the Europe’s role as a positive global force is more important today than ever. However, under the pressure of global competition the United Europe’s place in the world and its economic weight are shrinking, which is a solid foundation for preserving the unity of the Union for the sake of achieving greater. On the contrary, the most desirable scenario, as can be seen from the speech by the President of the European Commission, is to give the European Union a greater amount of power, resources and decision-making powers. As a result, cooperation between the EU-27 Member States will deepen in all areas than ever before.
The White Paper outlines ve main scenarios («Carrying on», «Nothing but the single market», «Those who want more do more», «Doing less more e ciently», «Doing much more together»), each of them provides an opportunity to look at the possible state of a airs in the Union by 2025, depending on the choice that the EU will make by 2019. In the opinion of Jean-Claude Juncker, the most negative scenario of the EU development, and therefore extremely undesirable, is to bring its goals to purely economic, focusing the Union’s activities on the development of a single internal market and ensuring its uninterrupted functioning («Nothing but the single market» scenario).
Based on data from the European Commission the author shows and brie y describes the key advantages and disadvantages of each of the scenarios. The common features of these scenarios are outlined: rst, they all come from the fact that the United Kingdom withdraws from the EU; secondly, none of them doubts the need to preserve the euro as common currency and the Schengen zone, thirdly, neither the scenarios refers to further EU enlargement. Since none of the proposed scenarios provides for the complete disintegration of the EU, that is, the disappearance of it as a geopolitical actor, it is concluded that in the strategic perspective all the outlined models of the EU’s future development suit Ukraine. Moreover, the steps recently proposed by the President of Ukraine and the European Parliament for deepening the economic integration of Ukraine with the EU and its association with the Schengen area also does not contradict any of the scenarios.
The future of the EU in the context of scenarios for its development by 2025