Managing Geohazards in Hard Conditions: Monitoring and Risk Assessment of Pipelines That Crosses Amazonian Jungles and the Andes

Author(s):  
John Erick Malpartida Moya

The hydrocarbon transmission system that belongs to Transportadora de Gas del Perú (TGP), comprise two parallel pipelines: a natural gas (NG) pipeline, which runs from the upstream facilities at Malvinas, in the Amazonian jungle of Cusco-Peru, to a reception station at Lurín (south of Lima); and a natural gas liquid (NGL) pipeline, which transports the condensed liquids from Malvinas to Pisco, on the coast of Peru. The right-of-way (ROW) crosses the Peruvian jungle with both pipelines in its first 200 kilometers, after climbs over the Andes Mountains at an elevation of 4860 masl, and descends steeply toward the coast along the Pacific Ocean. TGP’s Pipeline Integrity Management System (PIMS) has identified the Weather and Outside Forces such as main threat which increases the risk of the integrity of its pipelines in jungle and mountains areas. In pipelines with particular characteristics such as pipeline which crosses the Andes and the Amazonian jungle, this threat can cause even a greater number of failures than other threats such as Corrosion or TPD. This threat caused the 70% of the leaks of our NGL pipeline. The geotechnical and geologic conditions were key factors in the risk level of the system since the beginning of the operation. The PIMS of TgP has achieved an important development in the use and suitable handling of the information provided by diverse techniques of pipeline mechanical and the geotechnical inspection and monitoring of the ROW. Different alternative techniques of monitoring have to be taken into account. It is important also to take into account alternative assessment methodologies in order to determine the pipeline exposure, resistance and mitigation to this threat. By integrating these inspections, monitoring and particular assessments as part of PIMS, we have been able get accurate risk assessments in order to mitigate and/or minimize the occurrence of failures. In this way we are able to optimize efforts to preserve the integrity of our system and in addition minimize personal, environmental and business impact. Risk Assessment is an essential part of the Integrity Management System. Our company developed a very comprehensive and detailed Risk Assessment Model based on the guidelines of API 1160 and ASME B31.8S. The probability model is based on logic trees instead indexing models (the most commonly used), that is because we want to reflect in the result all the variables and factors: Exposition, Resistance and Mitigation Factors. By means of the pipeline Integrity Management System developed by TGP, we are able to mitigate risks due to outside forces. We have been able to act before any event becomes critical: TGP NGL pipeline’s failure rate due to WOF (number of failures per 1000 kilometers-years) decreases substantially from 5.39 to 1.26 in ten years of operation. For the whole system that rate decreases from 2.33 to 0.46.

Author(s):  
Fernando A. Vela´squez Marti´nez ◽  
Dimas Y. Robles Robles

An early identification of geo-hazards i.e. slides, fluvial erosion, eolic erosion, rainwater erosion among others and the subsequent mitigation and remediation of its effects on the Right of Way (ROW) and the pipelines, has prevented the occurrence of leaks in the Camisea NG and NGL Transportation System, which includes a 730 Km natural gas pipeline and a parallel 560 Km natural gas liquids pipeline, operated and maintained by Compan˜i´a de Gas del Amazonas (COGA). The Camisea Transportation System, traverse the Peruvian territory starting in Malvinas (Cusco). The NGL pipeline stops in Playa Loberi´a (Ica) and the NG pipeline stops in the City Gate, located in Luri´n (Lima). These pipelines traverse the Peruvian rainforest, the Andes Mountains and coastal areas. The intend of this paper is to describe the use of a Risk Matrix (RM) in order to calculate different risk levels for the prioritization of the geotechnical mitigation and stabilization works to be performed during the dry season of the Peruvian rainforest. The RM is a tool based on the so-called Safety Ratio, incorporating calculation parameters of the Security Factor used in the stability analysis of slopes. Once the work sites have been identified using the RM, the engineering design is performed, using geotechnical engineering techniques such as subsoil exploration, laboratory testing, mathematic modeling, designs and instrumentation. After the Geotechnical Engineering process has been completed, the Safety Ratio values estimated with the RM are replaced by Safety Factors. The paper concludes showing the benefits of the whole Risk Management System, which has been successfully applied in the first 200 Km of the ROW characterized by residual soils, slopes with more than 45° and 7000 mm in excess of rainfall per year.


Author(s):  
Lian Chen ◽  
Shenglu Zhou ◽  
Qiong Yang ◽  
Qingrong Li ◽  
Dongxu Xing ◽  
...  

This study detailed a complete research from Lead (Pb) content level to ecological and health risk to direct- and primary-sources apportionment arising from wheat and rice grains, in the Lihe River Watershed of the Taihu region, East China. Ecological and health risk assessment were based on the pollution index and US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) health risk assessment model. A three-stage quantitative analysis program based on Pb isotope analysis to determine the relative contributions of primary sources involving (1) direct-source apportionment in grains with a two-end-member model, (2) apportionment of soil and dustfall sources using the IsoSource model, and (3) the integration of results of (1) and (2) was notedly first proposed. The results indicated that mean contents of Pb in wheat and rice grains were 0.54 and 0.45 mg/kg and both the bio-concentration factors (BCF) were <<1; the ecological risk pollution indices were 1.35 for wheat grains and 1.11 for rice grains; hazard quotient (HQ) values for adult and child indicating health risks through ingestion of grains were all <1; Coal-fired industrial sources account for up to 60% of Pb in the grains. This study provides insights into the management of grain Pb pollution and a new method for its source apportionment.


Author(s):  
Seyedeh Samaneh Miresmaeeli ◽  
Nafiseh Esmaeili ◽  
Sepideh Sadeghi Ashlaghi ◽  
Zahra Abbasi Dolatabadi

Abstract Background: Exceptional children, like other children, have the right to be educated in a safe environment. Disasters are considered as serious issues regarding safety and security of educational environments. Following disasters, vulnerable groups, especially children with handicaps and disabilities are more likely to be seriously injured. Thus, the present study aimed to evaluate the safety and disaster risk assessment of exceptional schools in Tehran, Iran. Method: The cross-sectional study was conducted in exceptional schools in Tehran, 2018. First, 55 exceptional schools in all grades were selected based on census sampling method and evaluated by using a checklist designed by Tehran Disaster Mitigation and Management Organization (TDMMO) and Ministry of Education in 2015. The data were analyzed using Excel software and statistical descriptive tests. Result: Based on the results, school facilities are worn and have unsafe elevators (least safety: 7.69%), yards (least safety: 9.52%), laboratories (least safety: 16.67%), libraries (least safety: 24.24%), fire extinguishing systems (least safety: 28.99%), and storage rooms and kitchens (least safety: 33.33%) which require immediate considerations. In total, the safety of exceptional schools in this study was 70.13%, which suggests medium-risk level. Conclusion: The educational settings must be reconsidered, along with identifying the risk and safety at school. In addition, a standard should be established for evaluating safety, especially in exceptional schools.


Author(s):  
Xiaochuan Wang ◽  
Huixian Wang

At present, the situation of coal mine safety production is still grim. The key to solve the problem is to analyze the risk of management activities in the process of coal mine safety production. This paper takes the management activities in the process of coal mine safety production as the research object. Firstly, according to the coal mine safety production standardization management system, the safety production management activities are carried out layer by layer. Then, the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) is used to identify the human errors that lead to the failure of management activities at all levels of coal mine. Furthermore, the Fuzzy Set Theory is used to determine the evaluation results of experts on the risk level of coal mine safety production management activities. Combined with Bayesian network (BN), the risk assessment model of coal mine safety production management activities is established. Through the model, the risk probability of coal mine enterprise management activities is accurately calculated. According to the evaluation results, the risk of management activities in coal mine safety production is analyzed.


Author(s):  
Kevin Cicansky ◽  
Glenn Yuen

This Paper presents the method TransCanada PipeLines uses to assess the integrity risks with respect to operating its high pressure natural gas pipelines. TransCanada PipeLines’ experiences, results and successes gained through the implementation of its risk program, TRPRAM (TransCanada Pipelines Risk Assessment Model) are highlighted.


Geofluids ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan Wang ◽  
Jie Su ◽  
Sulei Zhang ◽  
Siyao Guo ◽  
Peng Zhang ◽  
...  

In view of the shortcomings in the risk assessment of deep-buried tunnels, a dynamic risk assessment method based on a Bayesian network is proposed. According to case statistics, a total of 12 specific risk rating factors are obtained and divided into three types: objective factors, subjective factors, and monitoring factors. The grading criteria of the risk rating factors are determined, and a dynamic risk rating system is established. A Bayesian network based on this system is constructed by expert knowledge and historical data. The nodes in the Bayesian network are in one-to-one correspondence with the three types of influencing factors, and the probability distribution is determined. Posterior probabilistic and sensitivity analyses are carried out, and the results show that the main influencing factors obtained by the two methods are basically the same. The constructed dynamic risk assessment model is most affected by the objective factor rating and monitoring factor rating, followed by the subjective factor rating. The dynamic risk rating is mainly affected by the surrounding rock level among the objective factors, construction management among the subjective factors, and arch crown convergence and side wall displacement among the monitoring factors. The dynamic risk assessment method based on the Bayesian network is applied to the No. 3 inclined shaft of the Humaling tunnel. According to the adjustment of the monitoring data and geological conditions, the dynamic risk rating probability of level I greatly decreased from 81.7% to 33.8%, the probability of level II significantly increased from 12.3% to 34.0%, and the probability of level III increased from 5.95% to 32.2%, which indicates that the risk level has risen sharply. The results show that this method can effectively predict the risk level during tunnel construction.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Kai Hu ◽  
Junwu Wang ◽  
Han Wu

Frequent extreme climate events and rapid global urbanization have amplified the occurrence of accidents such as waterlogging or the overflow of pollution in big cities. This has increased the application scenarios of large-sized deep drainage tunnel projects (LSDDTPs). The scientific and accurate evaluation of the construction safety risks of LSDDTP can effectively reduce the corresponding economic losses and casualties. In this paper, we employed the hierarchical holographic model to construct the safety risk list of LSDDTPs in terms of the risk source and construction unit. Based on social network analysis, we then screened key indicators and calculated the weights of all secondary indicators from the correlation between risk factors. We subsequently developed a construction safety risk assessment model of LSDDTPs based on the matter-element extension method. The Donghu Deep Tunnel Project in Wuhan, China, was selected as a case study for the proposed method. The results of empirical research demonstrated that eight indicators (e.g., failure to effectively detect the change of the surrounding environment of the tunnel project) were key factors affecting the construction safety risk of IV, which is within the acceptable risk level. Our proposed model outperformed other methods (the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, analytic hierarchy process, entropy weight method, and comprehensive weight method) in terms of scientific validity and research advancements.


2019 ◽  
Vol 48 (4) ◽  
pp. 030006051989317
Author(s):  
Xindan Wang ◽  
Jing Huang ◽  
Zhao Bingbing ◽  
Shape Li ◽  
Li Li

Objective This study aimed to investigate a suitable risk assessment model to predict deep vein thrombosis (DVT) in patients with gynecological cancer. Methods Data from 212 patients with gynecological cancer in the Affiliated Tumor Hospital of Guangxi Medical University were retrospectively analyzed. Patients were risk-stratified with three different risk assessment models individually, including the Caprini model, Wells DVT model, and Khorana model. Results The difference in risk level evaluated by the Caprini model was not different between the DVT and control groups. However, the DVT group had a significantly higher risk level than the control group with the Wells DVT or Khorana model. The Wells DVT model was more effective for stratifying patients in the DVT group into the higher risk level and for stratifying those in the control group into the lower risk level. Receiver operating curve analysis showed that the area under the curve of the Wells DVT, Khorana, and Caprini models was 0.995 ± 0.002, 0.642 ± 0.038, and 0.567 ± 0.039, respectively. Conclusion The Wells DVT model is the most suitable risk assessment model for predicting DVT. Clinicians could also combine the Caprini and Wells DVT models to effectively identify high-risk patients and eliminate patients without DVT.


Author(s):  
Chen Zhou ◽  
Qun Yi ◽  
Huiqing Ge ◽  
Hailong Wei ◽  
Huiguo Liu ◽  
...  

Background: As inpatients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) are at increased risk for venous thromboembolism (VTE), identifying high-risk patients requiring thromboprophylaxis is critical to reduce the mortality and morbidity associated with VTE. This study aimed to evaluate and compare the validities of the Padua Prediction Score and Caprini risk assessment model (RAM) in predicting the risk of VTE in inpatients with AECOPD. Methods: The inpatients with AECOPD were prospectively enrolled from seven medical centers of China between September 2017 and January 2020. Caprini and Padua scores were calculated on admission, and the incidence of 3-month VTE was investigated. Results: Among the 3277 eligible patients with AECOPD, 128 patients (3.9%) developed VTE within 3 months after admission. The distribution of the study population by the Caprini risk level was as follows: high, 53.6%; moderate, 43.0%; and low, 3.5%. The incidence of VTE increased by risk level as high, 6.1%; moderate, 1.5%; and low, 0%. According to the Padua RAM, only 10.9% of the study population was classified as high risk and 89.1% as low risk, with the corresponding incidence of VTE 7.9% and 3.4%, respectively. The Caprini RAM had higher area under curve (AUC) compared with the Padua RAM (0.713  0.021 vs 0.644 ± 0.023, P = 0.029). Conclusion: The Caprini RAM was superior to the Padua RAM in predicting the risk of VTE in inpatients with AECOPD and might better guide thromboprophylaxis in these patients.


Author(s):  
Francisco Oliveros ◽  
John Malpartida ◽  
Alberto Melo ◽  
Christian Rosario ◽  
Marcos Mecatti

Abstract Camisea Pipeline Transportation System (PTS) in Peru, owned by Transportadora de Gas del Perú (TGP) and operated by Compañía Operadora de Gas (COGA), begins in the Amazon rainforest, crosses the Andes Mountains (4850msnm) and finally descends towards the Pacific coast. The PTS has been operating for more than 10 years and it has Natural Gas (NG) and Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) transportation pipelines. The NG pipeline is 888km long which includes two Loops (105km and 18km in the coast and mountain sectors, respectively). NGL pipeline is 557km long. From the beginning (0 km) to 210 km, the Right of Way (RoW) is located in the geotechnical context of the Amazon rainforest. Then, between km 210 and km 420, the PTS crosses the mountain chain of the Andes. Finally, between km 420 and Km 730 the RoW is located on the Peruvian Pacific coast. TGP’s operation of the PTS identifies, analyzes and controls the different types of threats that can affect the integrity of the pipelines. The operation is developed according to international standards defined in the Pipeline Integrity Management (PIM) of the operation. Consequently, hazards such as Third Party Damage (TPD), geohazard, external and internal corrosion, among others, are analyzed. However, associated to the economic growth and development of Peru, there have been some cases where the intervention of a person, community or industrial activity in the surroundings of the RoW has resulted in the level of geohazards are spontaneously modified and activated. Consequently, the degree of stability of the RoW is necessary to analyze the integrity of the NG and NGL pipelines. This article describes the occurrence of some practical cases where there was a change in the stability of the RoW of the TGP’s PTS triggered by activities related to TPD. It is highlighted that the identification, analysis, definition and execution of mitigation actions are carried out in a transversal way which involves the participation of different operational areas such as: Integral Maintenance, Geotechnics, Integrity, Social Management, among others. All the activities are done with the approach of keeping the balance between community, environment and infrastructure. Some of the cases considered are: Flood and scour of the RoW triggered by the failure of a water tank in an industrial area, scour of channels due the obstructions and an unstable slope process generated by constructions near the RoW. Today, the operation develops activities in order to mitigate geohazards generated by TPD. Some of these activities are, among others: Social awareness, technical talks, agreements with industrial and local administration entities, geotechnical maintenance and monitoring. In addition, it is highlighted that all the mentioned mitigation actions are carried out in a transversal manner between different operational areas. Afterward, the collected information is properly saved in the Geographic Information System database.


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