Association between community management of pneumonia and diarrhoea in high-burden countries and the decline in under-five mortality rates: an ecological analysis

An under-five childhood mortality rates in Nigeria is still high, despite efforts of government at all levels to combat the menace. This study examined some factors that significantly affect under-five child mortality. A sample of mothers with children under the age of five from Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey data (NDHS, 2013 & 2018) was used to assess the effect of some selected predictor variables (or covariates) on childhood survival. Cox proportional hazards model is essentially a regression model popularly used for investigating the association between the survival time and one or more predictor variables. The results from final fitted Cox proportional hazards regression model that the covariates, contraceptive used by the mother, state of residence, birth weight of child and type of toilet facility used by the h-ousehold were found to be significantly associated with under-five survival in the North Central Region of Nigeria. All the calculations are performed using the R software for statistical analysis.

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Air Quality and Under-five Mortality Rates in the Low-income Countries

The Journal of Development Studies ◽

10.1080/00220388.2014.963565 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 51 (7) ◽

pp. 851-864 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Azmat Gani

Keyword(s):

Air Quality ◽

Low Income ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Low Income Countries ◽

Under Five

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Levels, Trends and Projection of Under-five Mortality Rates and Prospects of Achievement of Millennium Development Goal Four in India.

International Journal of Epidemiology ◽

10.1093/ije/dyv096.340 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 44 (suppl_1) ◽

pp. i207-i207

Author(s):

D. Sahu ◽

A. Pandey ◽

P. De

Keyword(s):

Mortality Rates ◽

Millennium Development Goal ◽

Development Goal ◽

Under Five

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Variations in infant mortality rates among municipalities in the state of Ceara, Northeast Brazil: an ecological analysis

International Journal of Epidemiology ◽

10.1093/ije/28.2.267 ◽

1999 ◽

Vol 28 (2) ◽

pp. 267-275 ◽

Cited By ~ 24

Author(s):

A. C. Terra de Souza ◽

E. Cufino ◽

K. E. Peterson ◽

J. Gardner ◽

M. I. Vasconcelos do Amaral ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Infant Mortality ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

The State ◽

Northeast Brazil ◽

Ecological Analysis

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Prioritizing Pregnant Women for COVID-19 Vaccination

10.31219/osf.io/5yxh7 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Yamini Sarwal ◽

Tanvi Sarwal ◽

Rakesh Sarwal

Keyword(s):

High Risk ◽

Antenatal Care ◽

Pregnant Women ◽

Web Search ◽

Safety And Efficacy ◽

High Burden ◽

Under Five ◽

Mortality Burden ◽

Dual Burden ◽

In Pregnancy

Even though evidence for the safety and efficacy of COVID-19 vaccination in pregnancy is emerging, most countries currently do not offer COVID-19 vaccination to pregnant women, while a few leave the decision to the woman. Pregnant women are known to be at high risk of complications from COVID-19. We did a web search on policies for COVID-19 vaccination of pregnant women in two sets of countries – those bearing a high burden of COVID-19 cases globally, and a second set with a high burden of maternal and under five mortality. India and Indonesia fall in both the groups. Of the top 20 COVID-19 affected countries, six countries allow and two have in place guidelines for preferential vaccination of pregnant women. In contrast, none of the high maternal and under-five mortality burden countries have such preferential vaccination guidelines in place. For COVID-19 not to further aggravate already heavy existing burden of maternal and under five mortality, there is a strong case for inclusion of pregnant women as a high priority group for COVID-19 vaccination. We recommend including COVID-19 vaccination in the routine protocol for antenatal care in all countries, particularly India and Indonesia in view of their dual burden.

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Time series prediction of under-five mortality rates for Nigeria: comparative analysis of artificial neural networks, Holt-Winters exponential smoothing and autoregressive integrated moving average models

BMC Medical Research Methodology ◽

10.1186/s12874-020-01159-9 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 20 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Daniel Adedayo Adeyinka ◽

Nazeem Muhajarine

Keyword(s):

Neural Network ◽

Time Series ◽

Mean Absolute Error ◽

Moving Average ◽

Absolute Error ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Childhood Mortality ◽

Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽

Under Five ◽

Deming Regression

Abstract Background Accurate forecasting model for under-five mortality rate (U5MR) is essential for policy actions and planning. While studies have used traditional time series modeling techniques (e.g., autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and Holt-Winters smoothing exponential methods), their appropriateness to predict noisy and non-linear data (such as childhood mortality) has been debated. The objective of this study was to model long-term U5MR with group method of data handling (GMDH)-type artificial neural network (ANN), and compare the forecasts with the commonly used conventional statistical methods—ARIMA regression and Holt-Winters exponential smoothing models. Methods The historical dataset of annual U5MR in Nigeria from 1964 to 2017 was obtained from the official website of World Bank. The optimal models for each forecasting methods were used for forecasting mortality rates to 2030 (ending of Sustainable Development Goal era). The predictive performances of the three methods were evaluated, based on root mean squared errors (RMSE), root mean absolute error (RMAE) and modified Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) coefficient. Statistically significant differences in loss function between forecasts of GMDH-type ANN model compared to each of the ARIMA and Holt-Winters models were assessed with Diebold-Mariano (DM) test and Deming regression. Results The modified NSE coefficient was slightly lower for Holt-Winters methods (96.7%), compared to GMDH-type ANN (99.8%) and ARIMA (99.6%). The RMSE of GMDH-type ANN (0.09) was lower than ARIMA (0.23) and Holt-Winters (2.87). Similarly, RMAE was lowest for GMDH-type ANN (0.25), compared with ARIMA (0.41) and Holt-Winters (1.20). From the DM test, the mean absolute error (MAE) was significantly lower for GMDH-type ANN, compared with ARIMA (difference = 0.11, p-value = 0.0003), and Holt-Winters model (difference = 0.62, p-value< 0.001). Based on the intercepts from Deming regression, the predictions from GMDH-type ANN were more accurate (β0 = 0.004 ± standard error: 0.06; 95% confidence interval: − 0.113 to 0.122). Conclusions GMDH-type neural network performed better in predicting and forecasting of under-five mortality rates for Nigeria, compared to the ARIMA and Holt-Winters models. Therefore, GMDH-type ANN might be more suitable for data with non-linear or unknown distribution, such as childhood mortality. GMDH-type ANN increases forecasting accuracy of childhood mortalities in order to inform policy actions in Nigeria.

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An ecological analysis of PM2.5concentrations and lung cancer mortality rates in China

BMJ Open ◽

10.1136/bmjopen-2015-009452 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 5 (11) ◽

pp. e009452 ◽

Cited By ~ 36

Author(s):

Jingying Fu ◽

Dong Jiang ◽

Gang Lin ◽

Kun Liu ◽

Qiao Wang

Keyword(s):

Lung Cancer ◽

Cancer Mortality ◽

Lung Cancer Mortality ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Ecological Analysis

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Strange Harvest: a Cross-sectional Ecological Analysis of the Association Between Historic Lynching Events and 2010–2014 County Mortality Rates

Journal of Racial and Ethnic Health Disparities ◽

10.1007/s40615-018-0509-7 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 6 (1) ◽

pp. 143-152 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Janice C. Probst ◽

Saundra Glover ◽

Victor Kirksey

Keyword(s):

Mortality Rates ◽

Ecological Analysis ◽

Cross Sectional

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Why do young children die in the UK? A comparison with Sweden

Archives of Disease in Childhood ◽

10.1136/archdischild-2014-308059 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 100 (10) ◽

pp. 928-931 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

Parag Tambe ◽

Helen M Sammons ◽

Imti Choonara

Keyword(s):

Mortality Rate ◽

Young Children ◽

Causes Of Death ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Mortality Data ◽

National Board ◽

Under Five ◽

Child Mortality Rate ◽

The Individual ◽

The Uk

BackgroundThe UK has a high child mortality rate, whereas Sweden's is lower (under-five mortality rates of five and three, respectively, in 2011).We therefore wished to compare causes of death in young children aged <5 years in the two countries.MethodsUnder-five mortality data were obtained from the Office of National Statistics for each of the individual countries within the UK for 3 years (2006–2008). Data for Sweden for the same period were obtained from the National Board of Health and Welfare. Causes of death were compared statistically using χ2 test.ResultsThere were a total of 14 104 and 1036 deaths aged <5 years in the UK and Sweden, respectively, between 2006 and 2008. The total numbers of live births during the same period were 2 295 964 and 315 884, respectively. The overall mortality rate in the UK was 614 per 100 000 children which was significantly higher than that in Sweden (328; p<0.001). The mortality rates for the three main causes of death in the UK (prematurity, congenital malformations and infections) were 138.5, 112.1 and 63.9, respectively, per 100 000 children. The mortality rates for the same three conditions in Sweden were 10.1, 88.6 and 34.8, respectively. They were all significantly more frequent in the UK than in Sweden (p<0.001), as were the majority of the disorders. Treatable infections, such as pneumonia, meningitis and septicaemia, in both neonates and young children had significantly higher mortality rates in the UK than in Sweden (p<0.001).ConclusionsIn order to reduce the mortality rate in the UK, we need to try and reduce the causes of prematurity. Additionally, the care of children with treatable infections should be reviewed to understand ways in which to reduce the differences in mortality seen.

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