Association between homicide rates and suicide rates: a countrywide longitudinal analysis of 5507 Brazilian municipalities

ObjectiveTo estimate the association between homicide and suicide rates in Brazilian municipalities over a period of 7 years.DesignWe conducted a longitudinal ecological study using annual mortality data from 5507 Brazilian municipalities between 2008 and 2014. Multivariable negative binomial regression models were used to examine the relationship between homicide and suicide rates. Robustness of results was explored using sensitivity analyses to examine the influence of data quality, population size, age and sex on the relationship between homicide and suicide rates.SettingA nationwide study of municipality-level data.ParticipantsMortality data and corresponding population estimates for municipal populations aged 10 years and older.Primary and secondary outcome measuresAge-standardised suicide rates per 100 000.ResultsMunicipal suicide rates were positively associated with municipal homicide rates; after adjusting for socioeconomic and demographic factors, a doubling of the homicide rate was associated with 22% increase in suicide rate (rate ratio=1.22, 95% CI: 1.13 to 1.33). A dose–response effect was observed with 4% increase in suicide rates at the third quintile, 9% at the fourth quintile and 12% at the highest quintile of homicide rates compared with the lowest quintile. The observed effect estimates were robust to sensitivity analyses.ConclusionsMunicipalities with higher homicide rates have higher suicide rates and the relationship between homicide and suicide rates in Brazil exists independently of many sociodemographic and socioeconomic factors. Our results are in line with the hypothesis that changes in homicide rates lead to changes in suicide rates, although a causal association cannot be established from this study. Suicide and homicide rates have increased in Brazil despite increased community mental health support and incarceration, respectively; therefore, new avenues for intervention are needed. The identification of a positive relationship between homicide and suicide rates suggests that population-based interventions to reduce homicide rates may also reduce suicide rates in Brazil.

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Effect of Maximum Average Temperature on Suicide Rates in California, 2008-2017: Public Health Implications of Climate Change

10.21203/rs.3.rs-84069/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Mavra Qamar ◽

Sierra Cheng ◽

Rebecca Plouffe ◽

Stephanie Nanos ◽

David N Fisman ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Climate Change ◽

Time Series ◽

Negative Binomial ◽

Negative Binomial Regression ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Suicide Rates ◽

Binomial Regression ◽

The Relationship ◽

Heat Events

Abstract BackgroundSuicide prevention is a salient public health responsibility, as it is one of the top ten leading causes of premature mortality in the United States. Risk factors of suicide transcend the individual and societal level as risk can increase based on climatic variables. Previous studies have been country-based. Currently, studies focused solely on regions, provinces, or states, such as California, are limited. The present study holds two purposes: i) to assess the effect of maximum temperature on suicides, and ii) to evaluate the effect of number of monthly heat events on suicide rates, in California from 2008-2017.MethodsThe exposure was measured as the average Californian daily maximum temperature within each month, and the number of monthly heat events, which was calculated as a count of the days exhibiting a >15% increase from the historical monthly temperature. The outcome was measured as California’s monthly suicide rate. Negative binomial regression models assessed the relationship between maximum temperature and suicides, and heat events and suicide. A seasonal decomposition of a time series and auto-correlogram further analyzed the seasonality of suicide and the trend from 2008-2017. ResultsThere were 40,315 deaths by suicide in California between 2008-2017. Negative binomial regression indicated a 6.1% increase in suicide incidence rate ratio (IRR) per 10°F increase in maximum temperature (IRR=1.00590 per 1°F, 95% CI: 1.00387, 1.00793, p<0.0001) and a positive, non-significant association between suicide rates and number of heat events adjusted for month of occurrence (IRR 1.00148 per heat event, 95% CI: 0.99636, 1.00661, p=0.572). The time series analysis and auto-correlogram suggested seasonality of deaths by suicide.ConclusionThe present study provided preliminary evidence that will generate future directions for research. We must seek to further illuminate the relationship of interest and apply our findings to public health interventions that will lower the rates of death by suicide as we are confronted with the effects of climate change.

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1113Depressive symptoms and objectively measured physical activity and sedentary behaviour in adolescents

International Journal of Epidemiology ◽

10.1093/ije/dyab168.334 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 50 (Supplement_1) ◽

Author(s):

Aaron Kandola

Keyword(s):

Physical Activity ◽

Depressive Symptoms ◽

Sedentary Behaviour ◽

Adolescent Depression ◽

Negative Binomial ◽

Negative Binomial Regression ◽

Population Based ◽

Sensitivity Analyses ◽

Accelerometer Data ◽

Light Activity

Abstract Background Physical activity and sedentary behaviour could be crucial risk factors for adolescent depression. This is the first study to use objective physical activity and sedentary behaviour measure to examine their association with depression in adolescents. Methods We analysed accelerometer data from population-based adolescents at ages 12, 14, and 16 and depressive symptoms at age 18. We used negative binomial regression and group-based trajectory models to analyse the data. Results We found that total physical activity decreased between 12 years and 16 years of age, driven by a decline in light activity and increase in sedentary behaviour. Each additional 60-minute increase in daily sedentary behaviour at ages 12, 14, and 16 was associated with an increased depression score at age 18 of 11·1% (95% CI, 5·1, 17·6), 8% (95% CI, 1·2, 15·2), and 10·5% (95% CI, 1·5, 20·8), respectively. Depression scores at age 18 were 9·6% (95% CI, 3·9, 15), 7.8% (95% CI, 0·8, 14.3), and 11·1% (95% CI, 2·6, 19.1) lower per additional 60-minutes of daily light activity time at ages 12, 14, and 16. These findings were robust to a series of sensitivity analyses. Conclusions Sedentary behaviour displaces light activity throughout adolescence and is associated with a higher risk of depressive symptoms at 18 years of age. Key messages Increasing light activity and decreasing sedentary behaviour during adolescence could be an important target for public health interventions aimed at reducing the prevalence of depression.

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The Effect of Maximum Average Temperature on Suicide Rates in California, 2008-2017: An Ecological Study

10.21203/rs.3.rs-93439/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Mavra Qamar ◽

Sierra Cheng ◽

Rebecca Plouffe ◽

Stephanie Nanos ◽

David N Fisman ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Time Series ◽

Negative Binomial ◽

Negative Binomial Regression ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Daily Maximum Temperature ◽

Suicide Rates ◽

Binomial Regression ◽

The Relationship ◽

Heat Events

Abstract Background: Suicide prevention is a salient public health responsibility, as it is one of the top ten leading causes of premature mortality in the United States. Risk factors of suicide transcend the individual and societal level as risk can increase based on climatic variables. Previous studies have been country-based. Currently, studies focused solely on regions, provinces, or states, such as California, are limited. The present study holds two purposes: i) to assess the effect of maximum temperature on suicides, and ii) to evaluate the effect of number of monthly heat events on suicide rates, in California from 2008-2017.Methods: The exposure was measured as the average Californian daily maximum temperature within each month, and the number of monthly heat events, which was calculated as a count of the days exhibiting a >15% increase from the historical monthly temperature. The outcome was measured as California’s monthly suicide rate. Negative binomial regression models assessed the relationship between maximum temperature and suicides, and heat events and suicide. A seasonal decomposition of a time series and auto-correlogram further analyzed the seasonality of suicide and the trend from 2008-2017. Results: There were 40,315 deaths by suicide in California between 2008-2017. Negative binomial regression indicated a 6.1% increase in suicide incidence rate ratio (IRR) per 10°F increase in maximum temperature (IRR=1.00590 per 1°F, 95% CI: 1.00387, 1.00793, p<0.0001) and a positive, non-significant association between suicide rates and number of heat events adjusted for month of occurrence (IRR 1.00148 per heat event, 95% CI: 0.99636, 1.00661, p=0.572). The time series analysis and auto-correlogram suggested seasonality of deaths by suicide.Conclusion: The present study provided preliminary evidence that will generate future directions for research. We must seek to further illuminate the relationship of interest and apply our findings to public health interventions that will lower the rates of death by suicide as we are confronted with the effects of climate change.

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Ambient temperature and subsequent COVID-19 mortality in the OECD countries and individual United States

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-87803-w ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Costas A. Christophi ◽

Mercedes Sotos-Prieto ◽

Fan-Yun Lan ◽

Mario Delgado-Velandia ◽

Vasilis Efthymiou ◽

...

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Ambient Temperature ◽

Negative Binomial ◽

Negative Binomial Regression ◽

Weather Conditions ◽

Oecd Countries ◽

Epidemiological Studies ◽

Sociodemographic Factors ◽

Sensitivity Analyses ◽

Inverse Association

AbstractEpidemiological studies have yielded conflicting results regarding climate and incident SARS-CoV-2 infection, and seasonality of infection rates is debated. Moreover, few studies have focused on COVD-19 deaths. We studied the association of average ambient temperature with subsequent COVID-19 mortality in the OECD countries and the individual United States (US), while accounting for other important meteorological and non-meteorological co-variates. The exposure of interest was average temperature and other weather conditions, measured at 25 days prior and 25 days after the first reported COVID-19 death was collected in the OECD countries and US states. The outcome of interest was cumulative COVID-19 mortality, assessed for each region at 25, 30, 35, and 40 days after the first reported death. Analyses were performed with negative binomial regression and adjusted for other weather conditions, particulate matter, sociodemographic factors, smoking, obesity, ICU beds, and social distancing. A 1 °C increase in ambient temperature was associated with 6% lower COVID-19 mortality at 30 days following the first reported death (multivariate-adjusted mortality rate ratio: 0.94, 95% CI 0.90, 0.99, p = 0.016). The results were robust for COVID-19 mortality at 25, 35 and 40 days after the first death, as well as other sensitivity analyses. The results provide consistent evidence across various models of an inverse association between higher average temperatures and subsequent COVID-19 mortality rates after accounting for other meteorological variables and predictors of SARS-CoV-2 infection or death. This suggests potentially decreased viral transmission in warmer regions and during the summer season.

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The impact of teaching on the duration of common urological operations

Canadian Urological Association Journal ◽

10.5489/cuaj.3737 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 10 (5-6) ◽

pp. 172 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Blayne Welk ◽

Jennifer Winick-Ng ◽

Andrew McClure ◽

Chris Vinden ◽

Sumit Dave ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Radical Prostatectomy ◽

Negative Binomial ◽

Negative Binomial Regression ◽

Potential Effect ◽

Sensitivity Analyses ◽

Teaching Hospitals ◽

Operative Duration ◽

Open Radical Prostatectomy ◽

Academic Hospitals ◽

The Impact

Introduction: The ability of academic (teaching) hospitals to offer the same level of efficiency as non-teaching hospitals in a publicly funded healthcare system is unknown. Our objective was to compare the operative duration of general urology procedures between teaching and non-teaching hospitals. Methods: We used administrative data from the province of Ontario to conduct a retrospective cohort study of all adults who underwent a specified elective urology procedure (2002–2013). Primary outcome was duration of surgical procedure. Primary exposure was hospital type (academic or non-teaching). Negative binomial regression was used to adjust relative time estimates for age, comorbidity, obesity, anesthetic, and surgeon and hospital case volume.Results: 114 225 procedures were included (circumcision n=12 280; hydrocelectomy n=7221; open radical prostatectomy n=22 951; transurethral prostatectomy n=56 066; or mid-urethral sling n=15 707). These procedures were performed in an academic hospital in 14.8%, 13.3%, 28.6%, 17.1%, and 21.3% of cases, respectively. The mean operative duration across all procedures was higher in academic centres; the additional operative time ranged from 8.3 minutes (circumcision) to 29.2 minutes (radical prostatectomy). In adjusted analysis, patients treated in academic hospitals were still found to have procedures that were significantly longer (by 10‒21%). These results were similar in sensitivity analyses that accounted for the potential effect of more complex patients being referred to tertiary academic centres.Conclusions: Five common general urology operations take significantly longer to perform in academic hospitals. The reason for this may be due to the combined effect of teaching students and residents or due to inherent systematic inefficiencies within large academic hospitals.

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Public or Private Religiosity: Which Is Protective for Adolescent Substance Use and by What Pathways?

Youth & Society ◽

10.1177/0044118x14531603 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 49 (2) ◽

pp. 228-253 ◽

Cited By ~ 15

Author(s):

Christopher P. Salas-Wright ◽

Michael G. Vaughn ◽

Brandy R. Maynard ◽

Trenette T. Clark ◽

Susanna Snyder

Keyword(s):

Substance Use ◽

Sensation Seeking ◽

Negative Binomial ◽

Negative Binomial Regression ◽

National Sample ◽

Adolescent Substance Use ◽

Public And Private ◽

Adolescent Substance ◽

The Relationship ◽

Private Religiosity

While it is well understood that adolescent religiosity is associated with the use and abuse of licit and illicit substances, few studies have revealed the pathways through which religiosity buffers youth against involvement in such behavior. The aim of this study is to examine the complexity of the relationships between religiosity, sensation seeking, injunctive norms, and adolescent substance use. Using a national sample of adolescents ( N = 18,614), negative binomial regression and path analysis were used to examine the various components of the relationship between religiosity and the use of cigarettes, alcohol, and marijuana. Results indicate that private religiosity moderates the relationship between key risk factors and substance use. Public and private religiosity were associated with tolerant injunctive substance use norms which, in turn, were associated with substance use. Implications for research and theory related to religiosity and adolescent substance use are discussed.

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Serum IGF1, metabolic syndrome, and incident cardiovascular disease in older people: a population-based study

Acta Endocrinologica ◽

10.1530/eje-12-0784 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 168 (3) ◽

pp. 393-401 ◽

Cited By ~ 28

Author(s):

Christa C van Bunderen ◽

Mirjam M Oosterwerff ◽

Natasja M van Schoor ◽

Dorly J H Deeg ◽

Paul Lips ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Metabolic Syndrome ◽

Older People ◽

Population Based ◽

Mortality Data ◽

The Metabolic Syndrome ◽

Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam ◽

Aging Study ◽

Definition Of ◽

Relationship Of ◽

The Relationship

ObjectiveHigh as well as low levels of IGF1 have been associated with cardiovascular diseases (CVD). The relationship of IGF1 with (components of) the metabolic syndrome could help to clarify this controversy. The aims of this study were: i) to investigate the association of IGF1 concentration with prevalent (components of) the metabolic syndrome; and ii) to examine the role of (components of) the metabolic syndrome in the relationship between IGF1 and incident CVD during 11 years of follow-up.MethodsData were used from the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam, a cohort study in a representative sample of the Dutch older population (≥65 years). Data were available in 1258 subjects. Metabolic syndrome was determined using the definition of the US National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III. CVD were ascertained by self-reports and mortality data.ResultsLevels of IGF1 in the fourth quintile were associated with prevalent metabolic syndrome compared with the lowest quintile (odds ratio: 1.59, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.09–2.33). The middle up to the highest quintile of IGF1 was positively associated with high triglycerides in women. Metabolic syndrome was not a mediator in the U-shaped relationship of IGF1 with CVD. Both subjects without the metabolic syndrome and low IGF1 levels (hazard ratio (HR) 1.75, 95% CI 1.12–2.71) and subjects with the metabolic syndrome and high IGF1 levels (HR 2.28, 95% CI 1.21–4.28) demonstrated increased risks of CVD.ConclusionsIn older people, high-normal IGF1 levels are associated with prevalent metabolic syndrome and high triglycerides. Furthermore, this study suggests the presence of different pathomechanisms for both low and high IGF1 levels and incident CVD.

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NATO between Exclusivity and Inclusivity: Measuring NATO’s Partnerships

Mezinárodní vztahy ◽

10.32422/mv-cjir.1746 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-32

Author(s):

Branislav Mičko

Keyword(s):

Human Rights ◽

Fixed Effects ◽

International Institutions ◽

Negative Binomial ◽

Negative Binomial Regression ◽

Original Dataset ◽

Strategic Approach ◽

Binomial Regression ◽

The Given ◽

The Relationship

Building on an original dataset, this article focuses on the interactions between NATO and its declared worldwide partners. It argues that the analysis of these interactions can reveal NATO’s strategic approach to partnerships, but it can also provide a tool for its classification as an organisation that is either exclusive – defined by the focus on defence of its members, or inclusive – emphasising the global protection of democracies and human rights. The relationship between types of interactions and NATO categorisation is estimated using an unconditional negative binomial regression with fixed effects as well as a within-between (hybrid) model. Furthermore, they are illustrated on two brief case studies of Sweden and Japan. The results of the study suggest that NATO engages primarily with countries that are powerful relative to their neighbourhood, even though they are not the most powerful among the partners. The given country’s level of democracy, integration into the international institutions, and stability, do not seem to play any overarching role here.

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The Relationship Between Social Vulnerability and COVID-19 Incidence Among Louisiana Census Tracts

Frontiers in Public Health ◽

10.3389/fpubh.2020.617976 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 8 ◽

Author(s):

Erin N. Biggs ◽

Patrick M. Maloney ◽

Ariane L. Rung ◽

Edward S. Peters ◽

William T. Robinson

Keyword(s):

Population Density ◽

Social Vulnerability ◽

Negative Binomial ◽

Negative Binomial Regression ◽

Vulnerability Index ◽

Social Vulnerability Index ◽

Census Tracts ◽

Control And Prevention ◽

Choropleth Maps ◽

The Relationship

Objective: To examine the association between the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)'s Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) and COVID-19 incidence among Louisiana census tracts.Methods: An ecological study comparing the CDC SVI and census tract-level COVID-19 case counts was conducted. Choropleth maps were used to identify census tracts with high levels of both social vulnerability and COVID-19 incidence. Negative binomial regression with random intercepts was used to compare the relationship between overall CDC SVI percentile and its four sub-themes and COVID-19 incidence, adjusting for population density.Results: In a crude stratified analysis, all four CDC SVI sub-themes were significantly associated with COVID-19 incidence. Census tracts with higher levels of social vulnerability were associated with higher COVID-19 incidence after adjusting for population density (adjusted RR: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.41-1.65).Conclusions: The results of this study indicate that increased social vulnerability is linked with COVID-19 incidence. Additional resources should be allocated to areas of increased social disadvantage to reduce the incidence of COVID-19 in vulnerable populations.

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The Relationship between Near-Repeat Street Robbery and the Environment: Evidence from Malmö, Sweden

ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information ◽

10.3390/ijgi9040188 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 9 (4) ◽

pp. 188

Author(s):

Markus Rasmusson ◽

Marco Helbich

Keyword(s):

Negative Binomial ◽

Negative Binomial Regression ◽

Socioeconomic Indicators ◽

Law Enforcement Agencies ◽

Environmental Characteristics ◽

Binomial Regression ◽

Using Data ◽

Near Repeat ◽

The Relationship ◽

Crime Event

Near-repeat crime refers to a pattern whereby one crime event is soon followed by a similar crime event at a nearby location. Existing research on near-repeat crime patterns is inconclusive about where near-repeat patterns emerge and which physical and social factors influence them. The present research addressed this gap by examining the relationship between initiator events (i.e., the first event in a near-repeat pattern) and environmental characteristics to estimate where near-repeat patterns are most likely to emerge. A two-step analysis was undertaken using data on street robberies reported in Malmö, Sweden, for the years 2006–15. After determining near-repeat patterns, we assessed the correlations between initiator events and criminogenic places and socioeconomic indicators using a negative binomial regression at a street segment level. Our results show that both criminogenic places and socioeconomic indicators have a significant influence on the spatial variation of initiator events, suggesting that environmental characteristics can be used to explain the emergence of near-repeat patterns. Law enforcement agencies can utilize the findings in efforts to prevent further street robberies from occurring.

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