scholarly journals Clinician estimates of prognosis: accuracy and impact—a retrospective inpatient hospice study

2021 ◽  
pp. bmjspcare-2021-003326
Author(s):  
Simon Tavabie ◽  
Anya Hargreaves ◽  
Adrian Tookman ◽  
Patrick Stone

ObjectiveTo evaluate the accuracy and impact of clinicians’ estimates of prognosis (CEP) in patients referred for hospice inpatient care.MethodsRetrospective review of 12 months’ referrals to a London hospice unit. Data extracted included date of referral, admission and death and CEP.ResultsN=383. Mean age 72 years (range 24–101). CEP accuracy: Median survival where CEP was ‘days’ (n=141) was 7 days (0–164); CEP ‘weeks’ (n=167) was 14 days (1–538); CEP ‘months’ (n=75) was 32 days (2–507). Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed significant difference between CEP of ‘months’ and ‘weeks’ (p<0.0001); ‘months’ and ‘days’ (p<0.0001); but not ‘days’ and ‘weeks’ (p=0.1). CEP impact: admission waiting time increased with increasing CEP: CEP ‘days’ (n=105) median 1 day (0–14); CEP ‘weeks’ (n=154) median 2 days (0–46); CEP ‘months’ (n=69) median 3 days (0–46). No significant difference was demonstrated in the number of discharge planning conversations between groups (0.9/patient).ConclusionsCEP was accurate in over half of the cases but did not adequately discriminate between those with prognoses of days or weeks. CEP may affect the prioritisation given to patients by hospices. Inaccurate CEP on referral forms may influence other aspects of care; however, further research is needed.

2015 ◽  
Vol 33 (3_suppl) ◽  
pp. 197-197
Author(s):  
Peter Joel Hosein ◽  
Neha Ray ◽  
Lowell Brian Anthony ◽  
Ching-Wei David Tzeng ◽  
Mahesh R. Kudrimoti ◽  
...  

197 Background: Toxicities of the active triple-drug DCF regimen (docetaxel, cisplatin and 5-FU) in gastric cancer limit its broad use and general acceptance as first-line therapy. To improve the toxicity profile of triple-drug therapy, distal esophageal and esophagogastric junction (DE-EGJ) poorly differentiated and moderately differentiated adenocarcinoma patients were treated with TCX. This single-center retrospective review is reported for patients treated between 2005 and 2013. Methods: Patients with DE-EGJ adenocarcinoma were treated with capecitabine (850 mg/m2 5 out of 7 or 14 out of 21 days), carboplatin (AUC 5) and paclitaxel (175 mg/m2) every 3 weeks. Those with locally advanced disease received concomitant radiation therapy (50.4 Gy using 3D approach) during the first 2 cycles. Dose reductions (25-50%), delay of therapy and hospitalizations for disease and treatment-related Grades 3/4 toxicities were recorded. Growth factors were prescribed reactively. Kaplan-Meier statistics were used for survival analyses. The institutional tumor registry data provided the historical median survival. Results: Thirty-one males and 3 females (median age 56, range 37-82) with locally advanced (N=17) and metastatic (N=17) disease were included. Median overall survivals are shown below. Two patients were admitted for neutropenic fever and 7 total hospitalizations occurred. Conclusions: A triple-drug combination first-line regimen (TCX) with and without radiation in DE-EGJ cancer is active, and associated with a manageable toxicity profile. The median survival of 15.8 months in patients with metastatic disease treated with TCX compares favorably with the DCF regimen (9.2 mos), the EOX regimen (11.2 mos) as well as institutional historical controls. Our data suggests that future prospective trials evaluating triple-drug regimens in combination with targeted therapy may be feasible in patients with esophageal and gastric adenocarcinoma. [Table: see text]


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Quan-yuan Shan ◽  
Bao-xian Liu ◽  
Zhi-hai Zhong ◽  
Hua-dong Chen ◽  
Yu Guo ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Biliary atresia (BA) with a hilar cyst is an uncommon variant of BA that may be misunderstood to have a relatively favorable prognosis. Methods A single-center retrospective review of patients that matched BA with a hilar cyst (n=27) with BA without a cyst (n=27) over a 5-years period was done. All patients were diagnosed as type III BA by histologic examination and cholangiograms. Results There were no significant intergroup differences between baseline characteristics and outcomes after Kasai portoenterostomy surgery in two groups. The Kaplan–Meier survival curves showed no significant difference in cumulative native liver survival rate of the two groups (p = 0.584). Of the 27 BA patients with a hilar cyst, 8 were showed the cyst communicated with the gallbladder on cholangiograms, and Kaplan-Meier survival curves indicated that the cumulative native liver survival rate was significantly shorter (P=0.045) in them than those who the cyst was not communicated with the gallbladder. Conclusions Type III BA with a hilar cyst had no better prognosis compared with Type III BA without a cyst. A cyst communicated with the gallbladder may be associated with a poor eventual outcome for Type III BA with a hilar cyst.


2007 ◽  
Vol 25 (18_suppl) ◽  
pp. 15164-15164
Author(s):  
A. Badari Badari ◽  
M. Javle ◽  
Y. Pak ◽  
T. Khoury ◽  
N. Ramnath ◽  
...  

15164 Background: ABSTRACT Introduction: . The aim of this study was to analyze demographic, therapy, tumor and clinical outcomes of all cases of neuroendocrine cancer at a tertiary cancer and determine the the markers that may better correlate with outcomes than histologic grade. Patients and Methods: With IRB approval , 126 charts with a diagnosis of neuroendocrine carcinoma were identified between 1–1-1999 and 1–1-2004. Ninety-five cases were selected on the basis of complete availability of baseline, therapy and at least one time point of followup data. Patient demographics, therapy details, TNM stage, tumor marker and survival data were collected. Tumors were graded as well, moderate and poorly differentiated and by site of origin. We attempted to correlate the outcome with NCAM(neural cell adhesion molecule-CD56) status, which is a homophylic binding glycoprotein to have a role in cell adhesion. Descriptive statistics and frequency tables were used to describe the data and kaplan meier methods were used to estimate the median survival. Results: There were 28 patients with lung primaries, 25 had primaries in the gut (extra pancreatic),11 had pancreatic primaries, 31 cases had unknown primaries or primaries at sites other than the lungs or the gastrointestinal tract. The estimated median survival for the whole sample was 34 months.(95% C I :20,54) and the 2 year survival rate was 55.3 %.The estimated median survival for CD56 positive group was 11 months(95% C.I :3,38) and that for CD 56 unknown group was 36(95% C .I :20,n/a). A significant difference in survival between CD56 positive group and CD56 unknown was found,based on log-rank test>(P=.02). Baseline characteristics were as follows: M:F 48:47; 19 were well differentiated, 4 were moderately differentiated and 36 of 95 tumors were poorly differentiated, the differentiation was not known in 36 cases. Surgery with curative intent was done in 52 of the patients(54.74%) and 52 received (54.74%)t chemotherapy, 4 patients(4.2%) received chemoembolization and 2 patients(2.1%) received local ablative treatments. Conclusion: These data summarize our instutions experience with this rare malignancy. In our data survival was as expected in the literature and further investigation of the CD 56 status of all patients is underway. No significant financial relationships to disclose.


Blood ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 116 (21) ◽  
pp. 1870-1870 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kiran Naqvi ◽  
Guillermo Garcia-Manero ◽  
Carlos E. Bueso-Ramos ◽  
Sherry Pierce ◽  
Tapan Kadia ◽  
...  

Abstract Abstract 1870 Background: Patients (pts) referred to tertiary care centers occasionally have a final diagnosis that may differ from that made at the initial referring center. Previous studies have shown a discordance of 18% in the diagnoses of leukemia patients (AMJ. 1998;104:246-251). The aim of this study was to analyze the rate and implications of diagnostic discordance in pts with MDS referred to MDACC. Methods: A total of 915 pts presented to MDACC between September 2005 and December 2009 with an outside diagnoses of MDS. We reviewed the medical record of each patient for the pathology report on the diagnostic outside bone marrow slide sent for review. We also reviewed the outside hematopathology report sent with it. Diagnoses were coded according to WHO and the FAB MDS classification systems depending on time period. Information on pt characteristics including age, gender, IPSS, cytogenetics, complete blood count, % bone marrow blasts and transformation to acute myeloid leukemia (AML) were also recorded. Finally median survival was calculated using Kaplan-Meier method. Results: Out of the 915 charts reviewed, discordance in diagnosis was documented in 150 pts (16%). Sixty pts (40%) had an outside diagnoses of RA/RARS/RCMD/RCMD-RS (marrow blast <5%). Forty-six (77%) of these were diagnosed with RAEB (marrow blasts 5 to 20%) and 6 (10%) with RAEB-T (marrow blasts >20%) at MDACC. Similarly, 15 (26%) pts diagnosed with RAEB on the outside, were diagnosed with RA/RARS/RCMD/RCMD-RS at MDACC whereas 40 (70%) pts diagnosed with RAEB were diagnosed with RAEB-T. Only 2 pts diagnosed with RAEB-T on the outside were diagnosed with RAEB at MDACC. Moreover, 3 pts were diagnosed with chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML), 3 with MDS unclassified, 2 with MDS/MPD had a different diagnoses at MDACC. The characteristics of pts with discordance were compared with the 765 pts without discordance. Essentially no difference was noted in the age, gender, cytogenetics, hemoglobin or platelet count between the two groups. A difference was noted with pts in the discordant group having a higher percent of RAEB-T (37% vs. 10%, p<0.0001). Similarly the discordant group was noted to have a greater number of high risk IPSS pts; 30% vs. 13% (p< 0.0001) and greater than 20% marrow blasts (25% vs. 8%, p<0.0001). No difference was noted in transformation to AML between the 2 groups: 13% vs. 8% (p=0.11). Seventy-eight (52%) pts in the discordant group and 372 (49%) pts in the non-discordant group died. Despite the differences noted above, no difference was observed in the median survival between the 2 groups by the Kaplan-Meier method (p=0.39). The median survival of both the groups was 15 months. Also only 19 pts in the discordant group were noted to have an outside report/marrow slide of > 6 months. Nine pts of these showed a higher marrow blast percentage than outside, indicating progression of disease. Conclusion: Discordance in the diagnosis of MDS pts is important as it can affect the treatment plan and overall prognosis of these patients. In our study, pts in the discordant group were observed to have a higher risk disease. However, no significant difference in survival was noted between the two groups. These results demonstrate the complexity of the morphological diagnosis of MDS and indicate that morphological classifications have a limited role in the prognosis of these pts. Analysis of implications of therapy based on diagnostic discordance is ongoing. Disclosures: No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.


2015 ◽  
Vol 33 (3_suppl) ◽  
pp. 273-273 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rei Suzuki ◽  
Tadayuki Takagi ◽  
Takuto Hikichi ◽  
Ai Sato ◽  
Ko Watanabe ◽  
...  

273 Background: Since pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) shows aggressive progression, we speculate that prolonged waiting time after detection of disease until initiation of treatment may relate to prognosis of patients with advanced diseases. Methods: We included patients diagnosed to have metastatic PDAC in Fukushima Medical University between September 2006 and January 2014. All patients underwent more than 2 cycles of gemcitabine treatment (1,000 mg/m2 on days 1, 8, and 15 of a 28-day cycle) after confirming histological diagnosis. We classified waiting time as Time A (detection-to-diagnosis waiting time) and Time B (diagnosis-to-treatment waiting time). Each period was further divided into 2 groups (shorter [-short] or longer [-long] waiting time than median length of each waiting time group). Kaplan-Meier methods, log-rank test and Cox proportional hazard methods were used to analyze overall survival (OS). Results: Twenty three patients were included. Median age was 64 (49-75) and length of waiting time was 19.5 days (4-78) in Time A and 9.0 days (2-34) in Time B. Regarding Time A, there was no significant difference in median OS between Time A-short and Time A-long (198.5 vs. 197.0 days; hazard ration [HR] 1.096; 95% confidential interval [CI] 0.4822-2.537; P=0.81). On the other hand, median OS was significantly better in Time B-short than Time B-long (median OS 290 vs. 160 days; HR, 0.381; 95% CI, 0.096-0.622; P= 0.0078). Conclusions: We foundthat waiting time between disease detection and diagnosis didn’t impact on prognosis of metastatic PDAC contrary to our speculation. However, patients with short waiting time (less than 9 days) after diagnosis until initiation of first chemotherapy had better prognosis than patients who had long waiting time. These findings suggest that early initiation of chemotherapy after histological diagnosis can improve the prognosis of metastatic PDAC.


2020 ◽  
Vol 104 (10) ◽  
pp. 1384-1389 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Holmes ◽  
Michelle Mei Pik Hui ◽  
Colin Clement

PurposeTo compare the outcome of early versus late Nd:YAG laser goniopuncture (LGP) after deep sclerectomy with mitomycin C (DSMMC) for open-angle glaucoma (OAG).MethodsA retrospective study of consecutive OAG eyes that underwent a LGP following DSMMC was recruited between June 2012 and November 2015. Success was defined as intraocular pressure (IOP) less than 21, 18 or 15 mm Hg with a reduction of more than 20% IOP from baseline without (complete success) or with medications (qualified success).Results99 eyes with OAG that underwent DSMMC were recruited into the study. Of these, 49 eyes (49.49%) had undergone LGP post-DSMMC. IOP was significantly reduced following LGP from 28.4 to 11.8 mm Hg. Comparison of Kaplan-Meier survival curves out to 60 months after LGP showed a trend towards better outcomes in the late LGP group with the only statistically significant difference noted for qualified success with IOP target <15 mm Hg. Complications were few with no difference noted between early and late LGP groups.ConclusionThere appears to be a trend towards late LGP being more effective after DSMMC when compared with early LGP; this however was not significant. This study corroborates previous published data confirming LGP is an effective and safe procedure for lowering IOP post-DSMMC procedure.


2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (1_suppl) ◽  
pp. 54-58
Author(s):  
Maximiliano Barahona ◽  
Cristian Barrientos ◽  
Gabriel Cavada ◽  
Julián Brañes ◽  
Álvaro Martinez ◽  
...  

Purpose: To estimate survival curves in patients with hip fracture according to gender, age, type of fracture, and waiting time for surgery and to compare them with the life expectancy of the general population. The study hypothesis is that survival after hip fractures is significantly lower than in the general population, especially in cases that underwent delayed surgery, regardless of age and gender. Methods: A survival analysis study was designed and approved by our institutional ethics review board. All patients who were coded with a diagnosis of hip fracture from 2002 to 2018 were included in the study. A total of 1176 patients were included, and the median age was 81 years (18–105 years). Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank tests were performed to compare survival curves between those who underwent surgery on time and those with surgical delays. An exponential multivariate regression model was estimated, and a hazard ratio (HR) was reported for age, gender, and wait time for surgery. A significance of 5% was used, and a confidence interval level of 95% was reported. Results: The Kaplan-Meier curves for delayed surgery (log-rank, p = 0.00) and the age group (log-rank, p = 0.00) were significantly different. Exponential regression estimated an HR 1.05 (1.05–1.07) for age, HR 1.80 (1.51–2.13) for men, and HR 1.93 (1.61–2.31) for each day of wait for surgery. Conclusions: The 2 significant findings of this study are that hip fracture patients over 40 years old have a higher risk of dying at any time compared to the general population and that the waiting time for surgery (a modifiable factor) decreases survival rates at any time.


2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wang Miao ◽  
Junshuang Guo ◽  
Shuyu Zhang ◽  
Nannan Shen ◽  
Xiaoping Shang ◽  
...  

Objective: There is currently no effective treatment for Japanese encephalitis, which has a high rate of morbidity and mortality. This study assessed the effectiveness of a ganciclovir, methylprednisolone, and immunoglobulin combination (TAGMIC) therapy in decreasing cognitive impairment and mortality among patients with Japanese encephalitis.Methods: We retrospectively assessed the clinical data of 31 patients diagnosed with Japanese encephalitis, who were admitted to an intensive care unit. Patients were divided into the TAGMIC and non-TAGMIC group according to their treatment regime. We compared the 60-day, 6-month, and overall mortality and survival curves between groups. We also compared Barthel Index scores, Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) scores, and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) results.Results: There was no significant difference in the 30-day mortality rate or Kaplan–Meier survival curve between groups. The 60-day, 6-month, and overall mortality rates in the TAGMIC group were significantly reduced (P = 0.043, P = 0.018, and P = 0.018, respectively) compared with the non-TAGMIC group (0, 0, 0 vs. 31.25, 37.5, 37.5%, respectively). The 60-day, 6-month, and overall Kaplan–Meier survival curves were significantly different between groups (P = 0.020, P = 0.009, P = 0.009, respectively). There was no significant difference in the Barthel Index scores of surviving patients. Among the five patients who underwent MoCA and DTI, four had a score of 0/5 for delayed recall (no cue), while the remaining patient had a score of 2/5. All five patients were able to achieve a score of 5/5 with classification and multiple-choice prompts, and had sparse or broken corpus callosum (or other) fibre bundles.Conclusion: TAGMIC treatment can reduce mortality due to severe Japanese encephalitis. The memory loss of surviving patients is mainly due to a disorder of the memory retrieval process, which may be related to the breakage of related fibre bundles.


2018 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 149-154
Author(s):  
Krisha Desai ◽  
Alexandra M. Vinograd ◽  
Mary Kate F. Abbadessa ◽  
Aaron E. Chen

Abstract Background: Ultrasound-guided peripheral intravenous lines are frequently used in patients with difficult access. We have previously reported on the longevity and complication rates of ultrasound-guided peripheral intravenous lines, but there are limited data comparing outcomes of ultrasound-guided peripheral intravenous lines to traditionally placed peripheral intravenous lines in children. The aim of this study was to compare the longevity and complication rates of ultrasound-guided peripheral intravenous lines to traditionally placed intravenous lines in a pediatric population. Methods: This study analyzed 300 ultrasound-guided peripheral intravenous lines and 552 traditionally placed intravenous lines using patient records to determine the reason and timing for intravenous line removal. A t-test was used to compare overall mean survival times, and a log-rank test was used to compare Kaplan-Meier survival curves. Complication rates were compared using a chi-squared test. Results: The survival times of ultrasound-guided peripheral intravenous lines (mean = 73 hours, SD = 68 hours) were significantly longer than those of traditionally placed intravenous lines (mean = 38 hours, SD = 29.4 hours), t(559) = 8.51, P &lt; .0001. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis yielded a median ultrasound-guided peripheral intravenous line survival time of 143 hours (IQR = 68–246) and a median traditionally placed intravenous line survival time of 100 hours (IQR = 65–106) with a significant difference between the 2 survival curves by the log-rank test. There was also no significant difference in complication rates between ultrasound-guided peripheral intravenous lines (34.8%) compared to traditionally placed intravenous lines (31.8%), x2(1, N = 517) = 0.465, P = .50. Conclusions: Our data suggests that ultrasound-guided peripheral intravenous lines are a viable option for children, including those with a history of difficult access. Survival times were longer for ultrasound-guided peripheral intravenous lines versus traditionally placed intravenous lines, and complication rates of the ultrasound-guided peripheral intravenous lines and traditionally placed intravenous lines were similar.


Blood ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 124 (21) ◽  
pp. 4780-4780
Author(s):  
Martha Q. Lacy ◽  
Betsy R. LaPlant ◽  
Kristina M Laumann ◽  
Shaji Kumar ◽  
Morie A Gertz ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: Pomalidomide has demonstrated excellent activity in patients with relapsed, lenalidomide refractory, multiple myeloma (MM). Between November 2007 and March 2012, we enrolled 285 patients with relapsed MM on 5 sequential phase 2 trials; patients received pomalidomide at 2mg or 4 mg daily with weekly dexamethasone (Pom/dex). The approved dose of pomalidomide is 4 mg for 21 of 28 days. We wished to compare efficacy, tolerability and long-term outcomes between cohorts treated with 2 mg or 4mg daily continuously and 4mg daily for 21/28 days. Methods: After excluding two ineligible patients, 283 patients with lenalidomide refractory, relapsed MM from 5 sequential cohorts were analyzed. These patients were divided into 3 groups: Group1 received Pom 2mg for 28/28 day cycle (N= 69), Group 2 received Pom 4 mg for 28/28 day cycle (N= 95) and Group 3 received Pom 4mg for 21/28 day cycle (N= 119). All patients received oral dexamethasone given 40 mg daily on days 1, 8, 15, and 22. Response was assessed by the IMWG Uniform Response criteria. All patients received aspirin 325 mg daily for DVT prophylaxis or full dose anticoagulation. Results: The median age was 63 years (32-85); 35% were female. The median time from diagnosis was 53 months and the median number of prior regimens was 4. 127 (46%) had high-risk molecular markers. Prior therapies (% received) included lenalidomide (100%), thalidomide (46%), bortezomib (78%), autologous stem cell transplant (71%), and allogeneic transplant (4%). The median follow-up is 16.4 months (3.2-64.4). Forty eight percent are alive and 26% remain progression free; 15 patients are continuing to receive treatment. Frequency of AEs by groups are shown in Table 1. The most notable difference is grade 3+ neutropenia seen in 39% of group 1 and 56% and 57% of groups 2 and 3. Confirmed responses of PR or better were seen in 29% (group1), 35% (group2) and 24% (group3). Median duration of response (DOR) was 14.1 months (group1), 14.5 months (group2) and 10.2 months (group3). Median PFS was 5.5 months (group1), 6.9 months (group2) and 4.3 months (group3). Although the dose level cohorts were sequential rather than randomized, we compared OS between the dose levels in an exploratory manner. There was no significant difference in OS between dose levels (p=0.26). Median overall survival (OS) was 16.6 months (group1), 21.9 months (group2) and 16.0 months (group3). Conclusions: Pom/dex is active and well tolerated even in heavily pretreated patients Responses are durable. Response rates and overall toxicity are similar between the 2 mg and 4 mg doses. Neutropenia is more common in those receiving doses of 4mg daily or for 21/28 days compared to those receiving 2 mg daily. Table 1. All Grades Grade 3+ 2mg 28 Day 4mg 28 Day 4mg 21 Day 2mg 28 Day 4mg 28 Day 4mg 21 Day Anemia 68% 58% 74% 14% 15% 27% Lymphopenia 22% 51% 11% 16% 32% 8% Neutropenia 71% 82% 77% 39% 57% 56% Thrombocytopenia 51% 61% 63% 10% 9% 23% Leukopenia 59% 77% 72% 26% 38% 39% Pneumonia 7% 11% 12% 6% 7% 11% Fatigue 51% 65% 60% 9% 5% 8% Neuropathy 28% 32% 28% 0% 3% 0% Elevated Blood Glucose 10% 21% 8% 4% 6% 3% Pneumonitis 3% 2% 3% 3% 1% 1% VTE (Thrombosis) 3% 3% 3% 1% 3% 3% Secondary Malignancy 0% 2% 1% 0% 2% 1% Figure1. Kaplan Meier Overall Survival Curves Figure1. Kaplan Meier Overall Survival Curves Disclosures Lacy: Celgene: Research Funding. Fonseca:Medtronic, Otsuka, Celgene, Genzyme, BMS, Lilly, Onyx, Binding Site, Millennium, AMGEN: Consultancy, patent for the prognostication of MM based on genetic categorization of the disease. He also has sponsored research from Cylene and Onyx Other, Research Funding. Bergsagel:Novartis: Research Funding; Constellation Pharmaceutical: Research Funding; OncoEthix: Research Funding; MundiPharma: Research Funding. Stewart:Novartis: Consultancy; Celgene: Consultancy; Bristol Myers Squibb: Consultancy; Array BioPharma: Consultancy; Sanofi: Consultancy; Takeda Pharmaceuticals International Co.: Research Funding. Reeder:Millennium, Celgene, Novartis: Research Funding. Mikhael:Onyx: Research Funding; Celgene: Research Funding; Sanofi: Research Funding; Novartis: Research Funding.


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