Modelling geographic variation in the timing of shoot extension by ericaceous shrubs
The seasonal timing of shoot extension by three ericaceous shrubs (Ledum groenlandicum, Chamaedaphne calyculata, and Kalmia polifolia) was monitored at eight peat bogs along an 800-km latitudinal transect through Ontario, Canada, and at a transplant garden containing plants from four of the peat bogs. The timing of shoot extension varied among plants from different locations, both in the transplant garden and in the field. A regression model containing two independent variables (heat units (i.e., degree-days) and either the average annual degree-day total for a plant's geographic origin or the average frost-free period) could account for 95 to 99% of the seasonal plus intersite variation in shoot extension recorded in the transplant garden. The seasonal pattern of shoot extension predicted for each of the eight peat bogs with the regression model was close to the observed pattern in most cases. The average difference between predicted and observed percentages of shoot extension ranged from 4% for L. groenlandicum to 7% for K. polifolia.