Simple Size-Structured Models of Recruitment and Harvest in Pacific Salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.)
Growing evidence suggests that in Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), components of reproductive success besides fecundity are size dependent. However, managers setting escapement goals usually estimate reproductive potential of a stock in terms of total number of spawners, number of female spawners, or potential egg deposition given a mean size of spawners. Interannual variation in size composition of spawners may thus result in errors in assessing reproductive potential. Here, we develop models of recruitment and harvest and determine optimal size-selective harvesting strategies. These optimal strategies range from the current large-fish harvests (larger-than-average fish are caught, leaving smaller fish to spawn) to small-fish harvests, where the reverse is true. If the body mass (M) of individual spawners increases more rapidly than reproductive success (RS) with respect to increasing length of adult females (e.g., if number of eggs alone best measures RS), then sustainable biomass yield is maximized by the current large-fish harvest. However, if RS/M increases with increasing length of females (e.g., if total biomass of eggs best measures RS), then small-fish harvest maximizes sustainable yield. Evidence suggests that some salmon populations show this latter pattern; thus, large-fish harvests may generate suboptimal yields.