THE EFFECTS OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES ON REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM JAPAN

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-27
Author(s):  
DAI ERBIAO ◽  
HATTA TATSUO
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Population Aging ◽  
Regional Economic Growth ◽  
Demographic Changes ◽  
Skilled Workers ◽  
Working Population ◽  
Regional Economic ◽  
Per Capita

Since the 1970s, due to the combination of the declining birthrate and rising longevity, the speed of population aging in Japan has been more dramatic than in any other developed country. Consequently, the growth of the working population, which had been faster than the growth of the total population, has gradually become slower in recent years than the latter in Japan. Moreover, similar rapid demographic changes are taking place at various speeds in all prefectures. By introducing demographic variables into empirical models of regional economic growth, which is based on prefecture-level panel data for the period 1980–2010, this paper shows that the recent demographic changes in Japan have had significant effects on its regional economic growth: the contribution of the growth rate difference between the working population and the total population to per capita Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) growth rate, i.e., the demographic bonus, has disappeared. In addition, the growth rate of the aged population (65 years old and over) has had a very significant negative effect on per capita GRDP growth rate, while the growth rate of the young population aged 0–14 has had a significant positive effect. The findings of this study imply that Japan’s population aging and other ongoing demographic changes will continue to depress economic growth in all prefectures. Given the low probability of a significant rise in the birth rate and the rapid increase in the local labor supply, it is important for all prefectures in Japan to raise the quality of their labor-force and improve productivity. Meanwhile, effectively attracting young skilled workers to migrate from other regions/countries should be a key policy issue for both local and central governments in Japan.

scholarly journals The Effect of Air Transportation on Regional Economic Development: Evidence from Indonesian Regencies

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-58
Author(s):  
A. Aunurrofik
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Cross Section ◽  
Manufacturing Industry ◽  
Air Transportation ◽  
Regional Economic Growth ◽  
Air Cargo ◽  
Skilled Workers ◽  
Regional Economic ◽  
Substantial Impact ◽  
Per Capita

This study aims to examine the importance of air transportation on regional development in Indonesia as an archipelago and developing country. Using cross-section dataset in regencies level and multiple regression analysis, we found that the number of flight, air passenger, and air cargo give positive and significant impact on regional per capita income. The effect of air cargo is the strongest, which imply that airport will provide the more substantial impact on regional economic growth if the airport is intended to use for trade and business activities. The motivations of regency to have an airport are if Regency is an independent island, manufacturing industry with its high-skilled and mid-skilled workers, and tourism sector.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v7i1.6178

scholarly journals Model Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia: Peranan Ketergantungan Spasial

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 62-83
Author(s):  
Aspiansyah Aspiansyah ◽  
Arie Damayanti
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Growth Model ◽  
Spatial Dependence ◽  
Regional Economic Growth ◽  
Regional Economic ◽  
Spatial Spillover ◽  
Economic Growth Model ◽  
Per Capita

This study aims to examine the role of spatial dependence on Indonesia’s regional economic growth based on panel data of all provinces in Indonesia during 1990–2015. By using spatial durbin model, the authors found that spatial dependence plays an important role in achieving regional economic growth in Indonesia. Indonesia’s regional economic growth model that controls spatial dependence, yields better estimates than growth model that does not control spatial dependence. The researchers also found positive spatial spillover to Indonesia’s regional economic growth sourced from other region’s economic growth and initial per capita incomes, as well as population growth in other regions. ============================ Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji peranan ketergantungan spasial terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi regional Indonesia berdasarkan data panel seluruh provinsi di Indonesia selama tahun 1990–2015. Dengan menggunakan model durbin spasial, penulis menemukan bahwa ketergantungan spasial berperan penting dalam pencapaian pertumbuhan ekonomi regional di Indonesia. Model pertumbuhan ekonomi regional Indonesia yang mengontrol ketergantungan spasial menghasilkan estimasi yang lebih baik daripada model pertumbuhan ekonomi regional Indonesia yang tidak mengontrol ketergantungan spasial. Peneliti jugamenemukan terjadinya spatial spillover yang positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi regional Indonesia yang bersumber dari pertumbuhan ekonomi wilayah lain, pendapatan per kapita awal dari wilayah lain dan pertumbuhan penduduk wilayah lain.

scholarly journals Human Capital and Regional Economic Growth in Russia

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 57-80
Author(s):  
Boris Alekhin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Regional Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital Accumulation ◽  
Regional Economic ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Per Capita

This study examines the contribution of human capital accumulation to regional economic growth using panel data for 82 subjects of the Russian Federation over 2002–2019. This paper aims to test the hypothesis that in the long-run equilibrium there exists a connection between economic growth and human capital accumulation in the regions of Russia. From the point of view of econometrics, it would mean that we should refute the hypothesis that there is no cointegration of time series describing the aforementioned variables. General theoretical framework was drawn from the neoclassical growth theory, and panel data econometrics suggested the appropriate empirical methodology. Pooled mean group and fully modified least squares estimators were applied to an autoregressive distributed lags model based on the Solow model. The results indicate that accumulation of human capital has a positive and statistically significant long-term impact on the rate of growth of per capita income and that these variables are cointegrated. Such calculations allow us to make the following conclusions: per capita GRP is cointegrated with physical and human capital on the regional level. The cointegrating equation ‘explained’ more than 90% of per capita GRP variance. Human capital accumulation had a significant positive impact on per capita GRP growth in the long run; such impact exceeded the impact of physical capital accumulation. The positive impact of human capital accumulation on per capita GRP growth surpassed the negative elasticity of growth GRP by the amount of resource excluded from the real sector to provide support to students and maintain the regional education system. The paces at which regional economies were heading towards the steady state differed which is an evidence that there exist an incredible manifold of ways and means for regions to adjust to disbalancies

scholarly journals Analysis of the Spatial Structure of Regional Enterprises and Its Impact on Regional Economic Development Based on the Data Envelopment Analysis Model (DEA)

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Lei Wang ◽  
Yuan He ◽  
Tongwen Wang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Spatial Structure ◽  
Spatial Association ◽  
Development Stage ◽  
Regional Economic Growth ◽  
Regional Economic ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
Urban Agglomerations ◽  
Evolution Characteristics

This paper adopts the data envelopment analysis (DEA) model to conduct an in-depth study and analysis of the spatial structure of regional enterprises and their impact on regional economic development and to apply the analysis of the impact between the two. Firstly, the concepts of urban agglomeration, regional spatial pattern evolution, and coordinated regional development and their connotations are explained to define the research topic of this paper. Then, we systematically analyze the theory of regional economic growth, development stage theory, spatial polarization theory, and regional spatial association theory and review the existing studies on regional economic growth, regional development stage, regional spatial association, and pattern evolution, as well as the efficiency and quality of regional economic growth, which further clarify the research focus and research ideas of this paper. The time evolution, spatial divergence, and spatial association characteristics of the economic growth rate of the central urban agglomerations are measured, then the DEA model and entropy value method are used to calculate the economic growth efficiency and economic growth quality of the urban agglomerations, respectively, the time evolution characteristics and spatial pattern evolution characteristics of the economic growth efficiency and economic growth quality are analyzed, and finally, the coupled model of regional economic growth rate, efficiency, and quality is constructed. Finally, a coordination model of the coupling of regional economic growth rate, efficiency, and quality is constructed and the time-series evolution characteristics and spatial-temporal divergence characteristics of the coupling coordination degree of the three are comprehensively analyzed, and the spatial classification of the coupling coordination type of each county unit is made. The direction and path of regulation for the optimization of spatial structure and coordinated spatial development of urban agglomerations are proposed, and finally, the leading factors for the reorganization of the regional economic spatial structure are analyzed, and the regulatory countermeasures for the optimization of the economic spatial structure of urban agglomerations are proposed according to the spatial structure of urban agglomerations and their evolutionary characteristics.

scholarly journals Decomposing Effects of Population Aging on Economic Growth in OECD Countries

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-23
Author(s):  
Hyun-Hoon Lee ◽  
Kwanho Shin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Aging ◽  
Participation Rate ◽  
Working Hours ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Tfp Growth ◽  
Per Capita

Abstract In this paper, we investigate six channels through which population aging affects output growth per capita of 35 OECD countries where the old dependency ratio is already quite high. The six channels we consider are changes in: (i) physical capital; (ii) human capital; (iii) average working hours; (iv) labor participation rate; (v) age composition of 15–64 (the share of population aged between 15 and 64 years; and (vi) total factor productivity (TFP). We first confirm findings from previous studies that aging in OECD countries has negative effects on GDP growth per capita. We then find that the most important channel through which the negative effects of aging on economic growth operate is lowered TFP growth. Across our empirical specifications, lowered TFP growth associated with aging explains more than fully the lowered growth rate of GDP per capita. We also find evidence of demographic deficit (decreases in working age population share), but this negative effect of aging is more than nullified by compensating increases in the average working hours and the labor force participation rate. We conclude that because TFP growth rate can be permanently lowered, aging's negative effects on GDP growth per capita are expected to be permanent.

scholarly journals A Study on Investment Structure of Fixed Assets and Regional Economic Growth

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhenzhen Liu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Regional Economy ◽  
Regional Economic Growth ◽  
Fixed Asset ◽  
Regional Economic ◽  
Fixed Assets ◽  
Investment Structure ◽  
China’S Economy ◽  
Vast Territory

Nowadays, it has been in the period of rapidly developing China’s economy. Since the financial crisis in 2008, China has paid more and more attention to investing in fixed assets, and the growth rate of investing in fixed asset is also rising. However, when promoting regional economic growth, if we only pay attention to the total amount of fixed asset investment, there will inevitably exist some blindness and lack of sustainability. Therefore, the study between the investment structure of fixed assets and regional economic growth is quite important. China has a vast territory and many regions. The investment structure of fixed assets in different regions is also different, so the influence on economic growth is also different. This paper analyzes the investment structure of fixed assets and regional economic growth, and help realize the rapid growth of regional economy by recognizing the current situation of China's investment structure of fixed assets.

scholarly journals Research on the relationship between the imbalance of regional economic growth and the allocation of financial resources

2021 ◽  
Vol 275 ◽  
pp. 01056
Author(s):  
Rong Sun
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Industrial Structure ◽  
Insurance Premium ◽  
Regional Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Resources ◽  
Regional Economic ◽  
Financial Expenditure ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Reform And Opening Up ◽  
The Relationship

Since the reform and opening up, China’s economic growth has attracted worldwide attention, and people’s living standards have been significantly improved. However, China’s economic growth shows an unbalanced trend, that is, the level of economic growth in the central and western regions is far lower than that in the eastern regions, and the gap between regional economic growth is still widening, which seriously hinders the construction of a harmonious society in China. The allocation of financial resources will play a mainstay role in economic development. Therefore, it is important to pay attention to the relationship between the imbalance of regional economic growth and the allocation of financial resources. This paper chooses GDP per capita to represent regional economy, and chooses deposit loan ratio, industrial structure, financial expenditure per capita, foreign capital per capita and insurance premium per capita to represent financial resource allocation. Using the above variables to build a panel regression model, according to the coefficient of the regression analysis results, this paper puts forward relevant suggestions to balance regional economic growth.

scholarly journals Analisis Dampak Ketimpangan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Wilayah Terhadap Kemiskinasn Di Wilayah Barat Selatan Provinsi Aceh

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 179-190
Author(s):  
Yuwanda Irmiyanti ◽  
Suyanti Kasimin ◽  
Teuku Fauzi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Coefficient Of Variation ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Regional Economic Growth ◽  
The South ◽  
Regional Economic ◽  
South West ◽  
Aceh Province ◽  
Per Capita

Abstrak. Kesejahteraan  suatu  wilayah dapat di lihat dari besarnya PDRB per kapita serta peran sektor-sektor di dalamnya sehingga menghasilkan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tinggi di setiap daerah. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis dampak ketimpangan pertumbuhan ekonomi wilayah terhadap kemiskinan di Wilayah Barat Selatan Provinsi Aceh yang di lihat dari tingkat PDRB per kapita. Tingkat ketimpangan pertumbuhan ekonomi di analisis dengan menggunakan ukuran koefisien variasi dari logaritma PDRB atas harga konstan 2000 dan koefisien variasi dari masing-masing variabel pertumbuhan penduduk serta kontribusi sektor industri. Adapun tingkat kecenderungan ketimpangan pertumbuhan ekonomi dianalisis secara deskriptif menggunakan rumus Indeks Williamson. Hasil dari analisis menunjukkan perekonomian di 5 Kabupaten Wilayah Barat Selatan Provinsi Aceh selama kurun waktu 2009-2015 mengalami tingkat ketimpangan sedang sampai dengan tingggi (IW 0,38-0,62). Dari 2 variabel yang di duga mempengaruhi ketimpanganpertumbuhanekonomi wilayah maka faktor yang signifikan adalah faktor kontribusi sektor industri, sedangkan faktor pertumbuhan penduduk tidak berpengaruh terhadap ketimpangan  pertumbuhan ekonomi wilayah. Hal ini disebabkan oleh penyerapan tenaga kerja yang masih tinggi. Hasil penelitian ini juga di simpulkan bahwa bahwa semakin tinggi ketimpangan pertumbuhan ekonomi wilayah maka akan berdampak pada tingginya persentase penduduk miskin di masing-masing wilayah.   (Analisis Of Impact Ekonomic Growth Areas On Povertyn The South West Territory Of Aceh Province)Abstract. Welfare of a area can be seen from the size of GRDP per capita and the role of sectors in it so as to produce high economic growth in each region. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of regional economic growth inequality on poverty in the South West Region of Aceh Province viewed from the level of GRDP per capita. The level of inequality of economic growth in the analysis by using the size of the coefficient of  variation of the GDP logarithm over 2000 constant prices and the coefficient of variation of each variable of population growth as well as the contribution of the industrial sector. The level of trends inequality of economic growth is analyzed descriptively using Williamson Index formula. The results of the analysis showed that the economy in 5 Districts of the Western Region of Aceh Province during the period of 2009-2015 experienced a low level of  moderate to high (IW 0,38-0,62). From 2 variables which is to be expected affect the imbalance of regional economic growth then a significant factor is the contribution factor of the industrial sector, while the population growth factor does not affect the imbalance of regional economic growth. This is due to the high employment absorption. The results of this study also concluded that the high inequality of regional economic growth will affect the high percentage of poor people in each region.Kata Kunci : Ketimpangan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Fator-faktor Ketimpangan, Indeks Williamson.Key Words: Economic Growth Inequality, Inequality Factors, Williamson Index.

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