scholarly journals Decomposing Effects of Population Aging on Economic Growth in OECD Countries

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-23
Author(s):  
Hyun-Hoon Lee ◽  
Kwanho Shin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Aging ◽  
Participation Rate ◽  
Working Hours ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Tfp Growth ◽  
Per Capita

Abstract In this paper, we investigate six channels through which population aging affects output growth per capita of 35 OECD countries where the old dependency ratio is already quite high. The six channels we consider are changes in: (i) physical capital; (ii) human capital; (iii) average working hours; (iv) labor participation rate; (v) age composition of 15–64 (the share of population aged between 15 and 64 years; and (vi) total factor productivity (TFP). We first confirm findings from previous studies that aging in OECD countries has negative effects on GDP growth per capita. We then find that the most important channel through which the negative effects of aging on economic growth operate is lowered TFP growth. Across our empirical specifications, lowered TFP growth associated with aging explains more than fully the lowered growth rate of GDP per capita. We also find evidence of demographic deficit (decreases in working age population share), but this negative effect of aging is more than nullified by compensating increases in the average working hours and the labor force participation rate. We conclude that because TFP growth rate can be permanently lowered, aging's negative effects on GDP growth per capita are expected to be permanent.

scholarly journals INNOVATION EFFECT THROUGH RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN 35 OECD COUNTRIES

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 159-166
Author(s):  
Maman Ali M. Moustapha ◽  
Qian Yu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Research And Development ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Multiple Regression Model ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Development Expenditure

This paper analyzes the effect of research and development (R&D) expenditures on economic growth in the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries over the period 2000-2016. This study conducts an empirical analysis using a multiple regression model. The main findings confirm that an increase in research and development expenditure by 1% would generate an increase of real GDP growth rate to 2.83 %. The implication emerging from this study is that government and institutions need to increase investment in R&D expenditures to fulfill inclusive economic growth perspective.

scholarly journals The influence of demographic factors on the economic development of the Azerbaijan: the interconnection problem

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Saleh Nagiyev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
18Th Century ◽  
Demographic Factors ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
World Population ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact

Demographic factors have sometimes occupied center-stage in the discussion of the sources of economic growth. In the 18th century, Thomas Malthus made the pessimistic forecast that GDP growth per capita would fall due to a continued rapid increase in world population. There is a straightforward accounting relationship when identifying the sources of economic growth: Growth Rate of GDP = Growth Rate of Population + Growth Rate of GDP per capita, where GDP per capita is simply GDP divided by population. This article examines the interconnection between economic development and the demographic policy of Azerbaijan. The article analyzes various approaches of the impact of demographic factors on the economic development of a country. The following demographic factors have been identified and described as significant for the economic development: fertility dynamics, mortality dynamics, population size and gender and age structure.

scholarly journals Examining the Relationship of Corruption with Economic Growth, Poverty and Gender Inequality Albanian Case

2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 192
Author(s):  
Jonada Tafa
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Labor Force ◽  
Labor Force Participation ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Participation Rate ◽  
Labor Force Participation Rate ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Government Performance ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Per Capita

This thesis examines the relationship of corruption with economic growth, poverty and gender inequality in Albania. Albania is a developing country with a GDP growth rate of 1.6% (World Bank, 2012) and income inequality is a serious problem that government has to deal with. Regarding gender discrimination a lot of progress is made. The current government counts six female ministers in its body. Corruption in Albania is a widespread phenomenon and is found almost in every sector of life. TI CPI index ranks Albania in the 116 place out of 177 countries observed. To study this relationship a multiple regression analysis is conducted. Data for this analysis correspond to years 2000 to 2012 and is accessed from World Bank database. in this analysis CC from World Bank is the dependent variable, while FDI, GDP growth rate, GNI per Capita, Unemployment Rate, Proportion of Women in Parliamentary Positions and Women's share in Labor Force Participation Rate are the explanatory variables. The first two variables are used as indicators of economic growth. GNI per capita and Unemployment rate account for poverty, while the last two variables account for gender inequality. The results have shown that when the level of FDIs in Albania is increased government performance in control of corruption is improved. From the analysis it is understood that a decrease in unemployment rate would increase government performance in control of corruption. The results of the analysis showed that when unemployment rate increase, CC decreases. Regarding the link of corruption with GDP growth rate and GNI per capita, an inverse relationship is observed. With an increase in either GDP growth rate or GNI per capita, CC will decrease. Even the relationship with number of women in parliament and their share in labor force participation rate with corruption resulted to be negative. An increase in either proportion of women in parliamentary positions or share of them in labor force participation rate has shown to worsen government performance in control of corruption.

THE EFFECTS OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES ON REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM JAPAN

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-27
Author(s):  
DAI ERBIAO ◽  
HATTA TATSUO
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Population Aging ◽  
Regional Economic Growth ◽  
Demographic Changes ◽  
Skilled Workers ◽  
Working Population ◽  
Regional Economic ◽  
Per Capita

Since the 1970s, due to the combination of the declining birthrate and rising longevity, the speed of population aging in Japan has been more dramatic than in any other developed country. Consequently, the growth of the working population, which had been faster than the growth of the total population, has gradually become slower in recent years than the latter in Japan. Moreover, similar rapid demographic changes are taking place at various speeds in all prefectures. By introducing demographic variables into empirical models of regional economic growth, which is based on prefecture-level panel data for the period 1980–2010, this paper shows that the recent demographic changes in Japan have had significant effects on its regional economic growth: the contribution of the growth rate difference between the working population and the total population to per capita Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) growth rate, i.e., the demographic bonus, has disappeared. In addition, the growth rate of the aged population (65 years old and over) has had a very significant negative effect on per capita GRDP growth rate, while the growth rate of the young population aged 0–14 has had a significant positive effect. The findings of this study imply that Japan’s population aging and other ongoing demographic changes will continue to depress economic growth in all prefectures. Given the low probability of a significant rise in the birth rate and the rapid increase in the local labor supply, it is important for all prefectures in Japan to raise the quality of their labor-force and improve productivity. Meanwhile, effectively attracting young skilled workers to migrate from other regions/countries should be a key policy issue for both local and central governments in Japan.

US Economic Growth: Trends and Factors

2016 ◽  
Vol 60 (2) ◽  
pp. 26-39
Author(s):  
V. Varnavskii
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Information And Communication Technologies ◽  
Labor Productivity ◽  
The United States ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
The Us ◽  
Per Capita

The article considers the main trends and factors of US economic growth. Economic and technological reasons for slowdown of US Gross Domestic Product (GDP), GDP per capita and productivity are discussed. The author focuses on the estimates of key macroeconomic indicators published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics and other government agencies for analyzing historical growth and identifying factors contributions. Also, the article discusses points of view on the potential factors for continued economic growth in the future, including the statistics and calculations of the American economists. It is shown that the United States is nowadays facing fundamental problems of productivity, not just a cyclical downturn. A number of disturbing tendencies in the US economy, such as negative trends in both labor productivity and multifactor productivity (MFP) emerged well before the economic and financial crises of 2008 (Great Recession). As the author note, the US has entered into a period of relatively low GDP growth rate in comparison with 1990 – early 2000s. A reduction also occurred in the growth rate of GDP per capita, labor productivity and other indicators. Special attention is addressed to the roles of the Information and Communication Technologies (ICT). Since mid-1990 the large-scale investments into the ICT provided a great portion of US economic growth and productivity. However, in the last 10 years the contribution of ICT to productivity growth noticeably reduced from its maximum value in 1995–2004. Nonetheless, it remains sizable and still contributes about one-fifth of the GDP growth and more than 40% of the growth in labor productivity. The author’s general conclusion is that, despite the existing problems in economic growth, United States remains the world’s most productive economy and the largest market for ICT goods and services. This is likely to continue encouraging the nation’s economic growth and productivity, although at a slower pace.

scholarly journals Do Military Expenditure and Conflict Affect Economic Growth in Sri Lanka? Evidence from the ARDL Bounds Test Approach

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Abdul Rasheed Sithy Jesmy ◽  
Mohd Zaini Abd Karim ◽  
Shri Dewi Applanaidu
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Civil War ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Military Expenditure ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Bounds Test

Conflicts in the form of civil war, ethnic tensions and political discord are of enduring concern and a major bottleneck to economic development in Sri Lanka. Three decades of civil war and unethical political culture have caused severe economic problems for the country, including slower rate of growth and a huge defence expenditure. The aim of this study is to examine the effect of military expenditure and conflict on per capita GDP growth rate in Sri Lanka from 1973 to 2014 using the Solow growth model and ARDL bounds test approach. The results of the bounds test are highly significant and lead to cointegration. The negative and significant coefficients of the error correction term illustrate the expected convergence process in the long-run dynamic of per capita GDP. The estimated empirical results show that, the coefficients of military expenditure and conflict are negative and statistically significant in the short-run as well as in the long-run in determining per capita GDP growth rate in Sri Lanka. Hence, it is critically important to take necessary action to decrease military expenditure and provide an efficient political solution to the problem of minorities, specifically in the post-war period.

scholarly journals Examining GDP Growth and Its Volatility: An Episodic Approach

Entropy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (7) ◽  
pp. 890
Author(s):  
Jakub Bartak ◽  
Łukasz Jabłoński ◽  
Agnieszka Jastrzębska
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Per Capita

In this paper, we study economic growth and its volatility from an episodic perspective. We first demonstrate the ability of the genetic algorithm to detect shifts in the volatility and levels of a given time series. Having shown that it works well, we then use it to detect structural breaks that segment the GDP per capita time series into episodes characterized by different means and volatility of growth rates. We further investigate whether a volatile economy is likely to grow more slowly and analyze the determinants of high/low growth with high/low volatility patterns. The main results indicate a negative relationship between volatility and growth. Moreover, the results suggest that international trade simultaneously promotes growth and increases volatility, human capital promotes growth and stability, and financial development reduces volatility and negatively correlates with growth.

scholarly journals Does the Increase in Renewable Energy Influence GDP Growth? An EU-28 Analysis

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (16) ◽  
pp. 4762
Author(s):  
Daniela Nicoleta Sahlian ◽  
Adriana Florina Popa ◽  
Raluca Florentina Creţu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Panel Analysis ◽  
Renewable Sources ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Near Future ◽  
The Eu

The aim of our study was to analyze whether the increase in the use of renewable energy can help GDP growth. The research carried out shows that renewable energy has the ability to decrease or neutralize the negative impact of greenhouse gases (GHG), but also to maintain economic growth. We focused our analysis on the EU-28 as we know that the EU Commission’s aim, in the near future, is to join forces to reduce the GHG used and move to renewable sources. We used a panel analysis with data between 2000 and 2019 from all Member States, and our results showed that their economic growth is influenced positively by the production of renewable energy, the GHG per capita, and the GHG intensity per GDP.

scholarly journals Is there a growing social acceptance of earnings inequalities in Poland?

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (8) ◽  
pp. 79-88
Author(s):  
Paweł Kumor
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Social Acceptance ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Gini Coefficients ◽  
Second Stage ◽  
Economic Level ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Two Stages

In our studies, we deal with the estimating of the optimal ranges of earnings – the optimal Gini indexes which are favourable to the maximisation of GDP growth in Poland. We suspect that the optimal Gini coefficients expressing the whole of society’s acceptance of earnings inequalities can increase. In the article, we formulated a hypothesis on society’s habituation to increasing earnings disparities. We verified the hypothesis on the basis of the model of economic growth using data from 1970 to 2007. We carried out econometric studies in two stages. In the first stage, we estimated the optimal Gini coefficients for short subsequent sub-periods. In the second stage, we studied the character of changes in the optimal Gini coefficients. In the studies, we proved the hypothesis on society’s habituation to increasing earnings disparities. The optimal Gini coefficients increase along with the increase of differences in earnings and the increase of the economic level per capita. The growth of the optimal Gini coefficients may be slowed down.

scholarly journals The Evolution of Economic Activity in the Rural Area of Region 2 South - East

2021 ◽  
Vol 95 ◽  
pp. 01007
Author(s):  
Daniela – Lavinia Balasan ◽  
Dragoş Horia Buhociu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Standard Of Living ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
Current State ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact

When we talk about economic development, we can refer to improve the standard of living and the prosperity of the population. This is due by increasing per capita income. In order to analyze economic activity, severe indicators must be studied, namely productivity, economic growth rate, labour force share, gross domestic product. In order to carry out as accurate an analysis as possible, it is required to discover the bottlenecks and problems that Region 2 South East makes and to develop a set of reservations and indications leading to the reduction and, why not, the removal of negative aspects. The main purpose of this work is to achieve a strategic plan by studying the current state and the impact of the economic system in recent times in all its forms, with a view to the development of the countryside of Region 2 South – East. I set out to create a website based on the advice of small rural entrepreneurs that evolves gathering information in realistically identifying all the strengths and concentrating them in the region’s potential innovation.

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