MODELING THE TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS OF DAIRY CATTLE BRUCELLOSIS IN JILIN PROVINCE, CHINA

2014 ◽  
Vol 22 (04) ◽  
pp. 533-554 ◽  
Author(s):  
JING NIE ◽  
GUI-QUAN SUN ◽  
XIANG-DONG SUN ◽  
JUAN ZHANG ◽  
NAN WANG ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Dairy Cattle ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Jilin Province ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Bacterial Disease ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Milk Cows ◽  
Parameter Values ◽  
Globally Stable

Dairy cattle brucellosis is a chronic bacterial disease, which is caused by Brucella abortus and mainly characterized by abortion in dairy cattle. With the rapid development of breeding industry of milk cows in China, the infectious cases of dairy cattle brucellosis show an increasing trend. Particularly in Jilin province, the annual number of the positive cases of dairy cattle was only 3 cows in 1987, and went up to 168 cows in 2005. Based on the situation of the brucellosis infection in Jilin province, we propose an Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Virus (SEIV) dynamical model with outside transferred amount to describe the transmission of brucellosis amongst dairy cattle in this paper. We calculate the basic reproduction number R0 and prove that the equilibria are globally stable. Moreover, using the real data of nearly 20 years in Jilin province, we estimate the parameter values in the system. As a result, we can predict the number of infections as time increases. According to the prediction for the next 30 years, we can conclude that the disease will persist if we just take existing measures. If culling, sterilizing and decreasing the number of outer importing are used together, dairy cattle brucellosis will be well controlled.

scholarly journals Modeling and Forecasting of COVID-19 Spreading by Delayed Stochastic Differential Equations

Axioms ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 18
Author(s):  
Marouane Mahrouf ◽  
Adnane Boukhouima ◽  
Houssine Zine ◽  
El Mehdi Lotfi ◽  
Delfim F. M. Torres ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Data ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Population Parameter ◽  
The Novel ◽  
First Case ◽  
Epidemiological Trend ◽  
Modeling And Forecasting ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Parameter Values ◽  
Stochastic Time

The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pneumonia has posed a great threat to the world recent months by causing many deaths and enormous economic damage worldwide. The first case of COVID-19 in Morocco was reported on 2 March 2020, and the number of reported cases has increased day by day. In this work, we extend the well-known SIR compartmental model to deterministic and stochastic time-delayed models in order to predict the epidemiological trend of COVID-19 in Morocco and to assess the potential role of multiple preventive measures and strategies imposed by Moroccan authorities. The main features of the work include the well-posedness of the models and conditions under which the COVID-19 may become extinct or persist in the population. Parameter values have been estimated from real data and numerical simulations are presented for forecasting the COVID-19 spreading as well as verification of theoretical results.

Thermal and Crystallization Behavior of B2O3 – SiO2 – Bi2O3 – TiO2 – Y2O3 Glasses

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kh. S. shaaban
Keyword(s):  
Glass Ceramic ◽  
Xrd Analysis ◽  
Nucleating Agent ◽  
Thermal Parameter ◽  
Glass System ◽  
Present System ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Parameter Values ◽  
Modifier Oxide ◽  
Quench Method

Abstract Glasses with the chemical composition of 52B2O3 – 12SiO2- 26Bi2O3 – (10 - x ) TiO2 - xY2O3, : (0 ≤ x ≥ 10 )prepared using the melt-quench method. The goal of this study is to investigate the structural, thermal, and crystallization characteristics of these samples. XRD analysis has explored the nature of the glass system. Molar volume obtained reduced while the density denotes increased in the present system. FTIR analysis revealed that as Y2O3 replaced by TiO2, because of an increasing trend in bridging oxygens (BOs), structural units and interconnection of modifier oxide tetrahedral increment, while non-bridging oxygens (NBOs) reduce. These glasses' thermal stability investigated using DTA. As the concentration of Y2O3 increased, so the thermal parameter values. The glass-ceramic denoted prepared under controlled heat and investigated using XRD & SEM. Ultrasonic velocities and elastic moduli of glass-ceramic samples increase as internal energy increases. The significance of Y2O3 modifier in the glass system signifies proved. Y2O3 is a powerful nucleating agent that can cause crystallization, assisting in the formation of glass-ceramic phases.

scholarly journals Research on development strategy of ice and snow culture tourism derivatives in Jilin province

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 18-20
Author(s):  
Kejin Zou
Keyword(s):  
Development Strategy ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Cultural Tourism ◽  
Chain Structure ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Interactive Technology ◽  
Jilin Province ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Folk Culture ◽  
Industrial Chain

Abstract. With the rapid development of ice and snow tourism industry in Jilin Province, a new economic growth point has been formed. However, the development of ice and snow cultural tourism derivatives is still in its infancy, lacking of creative expansion in breadth and historical excavation in depth, low technological content of products, lacking of added value, single marketing method, and no industrial chain structure. It is an important way to break through the convergence of derivative design of ice and snow culture tourism to tap the ice and snow natural culture and folk culture resources, create interesting derivative image design and develop interactive technology.

scholarly journals Self-Assisted First-Fix Method for A-BDS Receivers with Medium- and Long-Term Ephemeris Extension

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zilong Shen ◽  
Jing Peng ◽  
Wenxiang Liu ◽  
Feixue Wang ◽  
Shibing Zhu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Satellite System ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Signal Acquisition ◽  
Positioning Accuracy ◽  
Broadcast Ephemeris ◽  
Intelligent Logistics

As a sensor for standalone position and velocity determination, the BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) receiver is becoming an important part of the intelligent logistics systems under rapid development in China. The applications in the mass market urgently require the BDS receivers to improve the performance of such functions, that is, shorter Time to First Fix (TTFF) and faster navigation signal acquisition speed with Ephemeris Extension (EE) in standalone mode. As a practical way to improve such functions of the Assisted BDS (A-BDS) receivers without the need for specialized hardware support, a Self-Assisted First-Fix (SAFF) method with medium- and long-term EE is proposed in this paper. In this SAFF method, the dynamic Medium- and Long-Term Orbit Prediction (MLTOP) method, which uses the historical broadcast ephemeris data with the optimal configuration of the dynamic models and orbit fitting time interval, is utilized to generate the extended ephemeris. To demonstrate the performance of the MLTOP method used in the SAFF method, a suit of tests, which were based on the real data of broadcast ephemeris and precise ephemeris, were carried out. In terms of the positioning accuracy, the overall performance of the SAFF method is illustrated. Based on the characteristics of the medium- and long-term EE, the simulation tests for the SAFF method were conducted. Results show that, for the SAFF method with medium- and long-term EE of the BeiDou MEO/IGSO satellites, the horizontal positioning accuracy is about 12 meters, and the overall positioning accuracy is about 25 meters. The results also indicate that, for the BeiDou satellites with different orbit types, the optimal configurations of the MLTOP method are different.

scholarly journals Simplified Building Thermal Model Development and Parameters Evaluation Using a Stochastic Approach

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 2899
Author(s):  
Abhinandana Boodi ◽  
Karim Beddiar ◽  
Yassine Amirat ◽  
Mohamed Benbouzid
Keyword(s):  
Reference Model ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Network Models ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Stochastic Approach ◽  
Simplified Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Order Model ◽  
Parameter Values ◽  
Low Order

This paper proposes an approach to develop building dynamic thermal models that are of paramount importance for controller application. In this context, controller requires a low-order, computationally efficient, and accurate models to achieve higher performance. An efficient building model is developed by having proper structural knowledge of low-order model and identifying its parameter values. Simplified low-order systems can be developed using thermal network models using thermal resistances and capacitances. In order to determine the low-order model parameter values, a specific approach is proposed using a stochastic particle swarm optimization. This method provides a significant approximation of the parameters when compared to the reference model whilst allowing low-order model to achieve 40% to 50% computational efficiency than the reference one. Additionally, extensive simulations are carried to evaluate the proposed simplified model with solar radiation and identified model parameters. The developed simplified model is afterward validated with real data from a case study building where the achieved results clearly show a high degree of accuracy compared to the actual data.

Variational Bayes Inference for the DINA Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 45 (5) ◽  
pp. 569-597
Author(s):  
Kazuhiro Yamaguchi ◽  
Kensuke Okada
Keyword(s):  
Real Data ◽  
Variational Bayes ◽  
Diagnostic Assessment ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Mcmc Method ◽  
Inference Method ◽  
Bayes Inference ◽  
Dina Model ◽  
Mcmc Estimation ◽  
Parameter Values

In this article, we propose a variational Bayes (VB) inference method for the deterministic input noisy AND gate model of cognitive diagnostic assessment. The proposed method, which applies the iterative algorithm for optimization, is derived based on the optimal variational posteriors of the model parameters. The proposed VB inference enables much faster computation than the existing Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, while still offering the benefits of a full Bayesian framework. A simulation study revealed that the proposed VB estimation adequately recovered the parameter values. Moreover, an example using real data revealed that the proposed VB inference method provided similar estimates to MCMC estimation with much faster computation.

Cracking Analysis and Reinforcement Method for a Thin-Wall Plain-Concrete Pier

2014 ◽  
Vol 578-579 ◽  
pp. 1007-1011
Author(s):  
Wen Ya Ye ◽  
Xiao Qing Wu
Keyword(s):  
High Speed ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Plain Concrete ◽  
Thin Wall ◽  
High Speed Rail ◽  
Railway Bridges ◽  
Massive Concrete ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Treatment Measures ◽  
Construction Condition

In view of the rapid development of the high-speed rail construction in China at present, some new plain concrete piers of railway bridges cracked in an increasing trend. Combining a real project, this paper analyzed the causes of the cracking in massive concrete piers through the actual construction condition and the materials prosperities, and made corresponding prevention and improvements for the cracking, provided the reinforcing treatment of cracking piers with corresponding programmes. The analysis and treatment measures for the project will present a reference for the similar projects in the future.

CONVERGENCE IN MONETARY INFLATION MODELS WITH HETEROGENEOUS LEARNING RULES

2001 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
George W. Evans ◽  
Seppo Honkapohja ◽  
Ramon Marimon
Keyword(s):  
Steady State ◽  
Adaptive Learning ◽  
Steady States ◽  
Fiscal Constraint ◽  
Learning Rules ◽  
Heterogeneous Learning ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
Parameter Values ◽  
Globally Stable ◽  
Theoretical Results

Inflation and the monetary financing of deficits are analyzed in a model in which the deficit is constrained to be less than a given fraction of a measure of aggregate market activity. Depending on parameter values, the model can have multiple steady states. Under adaptive learning with heterogeneous learning rules, there is convergence to a subset of these steady states. In some cases, a high-inflation constrained steady state will emerge. However, with a sufficiently tight fiscal constraint, the low-inflation steady state is globally stable. We provide experimental evidence in support of our theoretical results.

scholarly journals CultReal—A Rapid Development Platform for AR Cultural Spaces, with Fused Localization

Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (19) ◽  
pp. 6618
Author(s):  
Anca Morar ◽  
Maria-Anca Băluțoiu ◽  
Alin Moldoveanu ◽  
Florica Moldoveanu ◽  
Alex Butean
Keyword(s):  
Augmented Reality ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Content Management ◽  
Accurate Estimation ◽  
Development Platform ◽  
Cultural Spaces ◽  
Fast Development ◽  
Position And Orientation

Virtual and augmented reality technologies have known an impressive market evolution due to their potential to provide immersive experiences. However, they still have significant difficulties to enable fully fledged, consumer-ready applications that can handle complex tasks such as multi-user collaboration or time-persistent experiences. In this context, CultReal is a rapid creation and deployment platform for augmented reality (AR), aiming to revitalize cultural spaces. The platform’s content management system stores a representation of the environment, together with a database of multimedia objects that can be associated with a location. The localization component fuses data from beacons and from video cameras, providing an accurate estimation of the position and orientation of the visitor’s smartphone. A mobile application running the localization component displays the augmented content, which is seamlessly integrated with the real world. The paper focuses on the series of steps required to compute the position and orientation of the user’s mobile device, providing a comprehensive evaluation with both virtual and real data. Pilot implementations of the system are also described in the paper, revealing the potential of the platform to enable rapid deployment in new cultural spaces. Offering these functionalities, CultReal will allow for the fast development of AR solutions in any location.

scholarly journals Trend Prediction of Event Popularity from Microblogs

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 220
Author(s):  
Xujian Zhao ◽  
Wei Li
Keyword(s):  
Public Relations ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Singular Spectrum Analysis ◽  
Influence Factors ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Development Trend ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Trend Prediction ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Development Trend

Owing to rapid development of the Internet and the rise of the big data era, microblog has become the main means for people to spread and obtain information. If people can accurately predict the development trend of a microblog event, it will be of great significance for the government to carry out public relations activities on network event supervision and guide the development of microblog event reasonably for network crisis. This paper presents effective solutions to deal with trend prediction of microblog events’ popularity. Firstly, by selecting the influence factors and quantifying the weight of each factor with an information entropy algorithm, the microblog event popularity is modeled. Secondly, the singular spectrum analysis is carried out to decompose and reconstruct the time series of the popularity of microblog event. Then, the box chart method is used to divide the popularity of microblog event into various trend spaces. In addition, this paper exploits the Bi-LSTM model to deal with trend prediction with a sequence to label model. Finally, the comparative experimental analysis is carried out on two real data sets crawled from Sina Weibo platform. Compared to three comparative methods, the experimental results show that our proposal improves F1-score by up to 39%.

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