scholarly journals REGULATORY CAPITAL MODELING FOR CREDIT RISK

2015 ◽  
Vol 18 (05) ◽  
pp. 1550034 ◽  
Author(s):  
MAREK RUTKOWSKI ◽  
SILVIO TARCA
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
General Setting ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Dependence Structure ◽  
Regulatory Capital ◽  
Loss Distribution ◽  
Portfolio Loss Distribution ◽  
Portfolio Loss ◽  
Irb Approach

The Basel II internal ratings-based (IRB) approach to capital adequacy for credit risk plays an important role in protecting the banking sector against insolvency. We outline the mathematical foundations of regulatory capital for credit risk, and extend the model specification of the IRB approach to a more general setting than the usual Gaussian case. It rests on the proposition that quantiles of the distribution of conditional expectation of portfolio percentage loss may be substituted for quantiles of the portfolio loss distribution. We present a more compact proof of this proposition under weaker assumptions. Then, constructing a portfolio that is representative of credit exposures of the Australian banking sector, we measure the rate of convergence, in terms of number of obligors, of empirical loss distributions to the asymptotic (infinitely fine-grained) portfolio loss distribution. Moreover, we evaluate the sensitivity of credit risk capital to dependence structure as modeled by asset correlations and elliptical copulas. Access to internal bank data collected by the prudential regulator distinguishes our research from other empirical studies on the IRB approach.

Macroeconomic shocks and credit risk stress testing the Iranian banking sector

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatemeh Abdolshah ◽  
Saeed Moshiri ◽  
Andrew Worthington
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Nonlinear Models ◽  
Economic Capital ◽  
Macroeconomic Shocks ◽  
Loss Distribution ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
Linear And Nonlinear ◽  
Portfolio Loss Distribution ◽  
Portfolio Loss

PurposeThe Iranian banking industry has been greatly affected by dramatic changes in macroeconomic conditions over the past several decades owing to volatile oil revenues, changing fiscal and monetary policies, and the imposition of US sanctions. The main objective of this paper is to estimate potential credit losses in the Iranian banking sector due to macroeconomic shocks and assess the minimum economic capital requirements under the baseline and distressed scenarios. The paper also contrasts the applications of linear and nonlinear models in estimating the impacts of macroeconomic shocks on financial institutions.Design/methodology/approachThe paper uses a multistage approach to derive the portfolio loss distribution for banks. In the first step, the dynamic relationship between the selected macroeconomic variables are estimated using a VAR model to generate the stress scenarios. In the second step, the default probabilities are estimated using a quantile regression model and the results are compared with those of the conventional linear models. Finally, the default probabilities are simulated for a one-year time horizon using Monte-Carlo method and the portfolio loss distribution is calculated for hypothetical portfolios. The expected loss includes the loss given default for loans drawn randomly and uniformly distributed and exposed at default values when loans are assigned a fixed value.FindingsThe results indicate that the loss distributions under all scenarios are skewed to the right, with the linear model results being very similar to those of quantile at the 50% quantile, but very unlike those at the 10% and 90% quantiles. Specifically, the quantile model for the 90% (10%) quantile generates estimates of minimum economic capital requirement that are considerably higher (lower) than those using the linear model.Research limitations/implicationsThe study has focused on credit risk because of lack of data on other types of risk at individual bank level. The future studies can estimate the aggregate economic capital using a risk aggregation approach and a panel data (not presently available), which could further improve the accuracy of the estimates.Practical implicationsThe fiscal and monetary authorities in developing countries, specially oil-exporting countries, can follow the risk assessment approach to assess the health of their banking system and adapt policies to mitigate the impacts of large macroeconomic shocks on their financial markets.Originality/valueThis is the first paper estimating the portfolio loss distribution for the Iranian banks under turbulent macroeconomic conditions using linear and nonlinear models. The case study can be applied to other developing and emerging countries, particularly those highly dependent on natural resources, prone to extreme macroeconomic shocks.

scholarly journals Asset correlation, portfolio diversification and regulatory capital in the Basel Capital Accord

2011 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 31-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sylvia Gottschalk
Keyword(s):  
Basel Ii ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Probability Of Default ◽  
Regulatory Capital ◽  
Kmv Model ◽  
High Quantiles ◽  
Portfolio Loss Distribution ◽  
Credit Portfolio ◽  
Portfolio Loss ◽  
Asset Correlation

In this paper, we analyze the properties of the KMV model of credit portfolio loss. This theoretical model constitutes the cornerstone of Basel II’s Internal Ratings Based(IRB) approach to regulatory capital. Our results show that this model tends to overestimate the probability of portfolio loss when the probability of default of a single firm and the firms’ asset correlations are low. On the contrary, probabilities of portfolio loss are underestimated when the probability of default of a single firm and asset correlations are high. Moreover, the relationship between asset correlation and probability of loan portfolio loss is only consistent at very high quantiles of the portfolio loss distribution. These are precisely those adopted by the Basel II Capital Accord for the calculations of capital adequacy provisions. So, although the counterintuitive properties of the KMV model do not extend to Basel II, they do restrict its generality as a model of credit portfolio loss.

scholarly journals Capital Adequacy In The Albanian Banking System; An Econometrical Analysis With A Focus On Credit Risk

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 271
Author(s):  
Kledian Kodra ◽  
Drini Salko
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Regulatory Capital ◽  
Nonperforming Loans ◽  
Bank Group ◽  
The Relationship

This paper examines the relationship between regulatory capital and credit risk within the Albanian banking sector. We estimate an equation which tries to capture the relationship among regulatory capital, nonperforming loans, profitability, total assets, liquidity and the level of growth in the GDP. The data is grouped and the analysis is performed in accordance with three banking groups. The grouping of the banks is in accordance with their size in the system and reflects the grouping used by the central bank for regulatory purposes. The model developed can be used to forecast required levels of CAR and it suggests that in the Albanian banking system, as well as for each bank group separately, the relationship between CAR and NPL is negative, the relationship between CAR and assets is negative for an unchanged level of regulatory capital, the relationship between CAR and profitability is positive, whereas the relationship between CAR and liquidity is negative. The effects of the change in the level of NPL on CAR are of a longer term nature, whereas the effect of the change in the level of assets on CAR is more of a shorter term nature.

scholarly journals Determinants of Credit Risk in the Banking Sector of Ghana: A Panel Co-integration Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Appiah ◽  
Frank Bisiw
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Techniques ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The economic development of any nation hinges on the health of its financial system. In recent years, the health of the Ghanaian Banking sector has been affected severely as a result of high levels of non-performing loans (NPLs), which has been identified as a major threat to the overall profitability and survival of banks. To minimize the impact of NPLs on the financial sector, key stakeholders such as the government, bank officials and regulators are working hard in that regard. However, any policy response aimed at dealing with the high rate of non-performing loans first requires the understanding of the underlying determinants of NPLs. Against this backdrop, this paper apply panel co-integration techniques to investigate the determinants of credit risk (NPLs) in the banking sector of Ghana.  We use NPL as a proxy to measure credit risk and assess how it is influenced by macroeconomic and bank-specific factors. A balanced panel data of 16 universal banks in Ghana from 2010 to 2016 has been analyzed using Panel co-integration techniques such as Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS). Our result shows that growth in the economy, measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has significant influence on the NPLs of banks in the long-run. The results further revealed that capital adequacy, profitability and liquidity of banks are significant predictors of NPLs. However, our results suggest that bank size, inflation and interest rate have statistically insignificant influence on the NPLs of Ghanaian banks. The study recommend, among others, that whereas it is important for government and policymakers to work to improve macroeconomic outcomes, banks should also improve their capital adequacy, profitability, and efficiency position as these bank-specific interventions could significantly improve credit quality and minimize NPLs.

scholarly journals The Threats of Unsystematic Risks in Jordanian Commercial Banking Sector

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 175
Author(s):  
Ghaith N. Al-Eitan ◽  
Ismail Y. Yamin
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Fixed Effect Model ◽  
Commercial Banking ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Credit Risk Management ◽  
Effect Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

The objective of this study is to empirically examine the effect of unsystematic risks on the performance of commercial banks in Jordan, using panel data for the period of 10 years (2005-2015). The study uses earning per share and dividends as dependent variables to represent Banks’ performance. The empirical analysis based on the fixed effect model selected on the basis of Hausman test. The results indicate that the impact of Non-performing loans on commercial banks’ dividends is positive and significant while the impact of capital adequacy is negative and statistically significant on dividends. The results indicate that the credit risk, liquidity risk, non-performing loan and capital adequacy have significant effect on earnings per share and the effects are negative as expected. Based on the study it is recommended that the Jordanian commercial banks needs enhance the process of credit risk management to determine loan defaulter and impose the appropriate legal action against them.

scholarly journals Analysis of the Relationship between Credit Risk and Bank Performance of Some Commercial Banks in Ghana

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 34-51
Author(s):  
Joseph Acquah ◽  
Yusif Arthur ◽  
Damianus Kofi Owusu
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Commercial Bank ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
Independent Entity ◽  
The Relationship

This study analysed the relationship between credit risk and bank financial performance of selected commercial banks in Ghana for the period 2010 - 2014, using the banks respective financial statements. The study employed the quantitative research approach. The sample was Ghana Commercial Bank Limited, Zenith Bank Limited, UT Bank and Ecobank Plc. These four banks were selected using stratified random sampling technique. The data were primarily secondary and quantitative in nature. Both descriptive and inferential statistics were used to analyse the data. When the banks were compared, Ghana Commercial Bank Limited was found to be more liquid than Zenith Bank Limited. That of Zenith bank was also higher than UT bank and Ecobank Plc .However, profitability indicators showed that Zenith Bank Limited and Ecobank Plc utilised its assets better than Ghana Commercial Bank Limited and UT bank resulting in the two banks higher scores over the period. The findings show further that Ghana Commercial Bank Limited showed higher ratios for investment in the future while Zenith Bank Limited showed higher ratios of higher dividend immediately. However, Zenith Bank Limited capital adequacy level was far higher than the legal requirement of Banking sector while its counterparts fell slightly below it in terms of average. Based on the main findings and conclusions, it is recommended that Ghana Commercial Bank Limited should find a means of reducing its expenditure, introducing prudent assets management, should be cautious when assisting government in time of economic difficulty, and operate as an independent entity.

scholarly journals Operational control over the financial stability of banking

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-58
Author(s):  
Angela Kuznetsova ◽  
Borys Samorodov ◽  
Galyna Azarenkova ◽  
Kateryna Oryekhova ◽  
Maksym Babenko
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Control Charts ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Banking Regulation ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Operational Control ◽  
Regulatory Capital ◽  
Control Value ◽  
Banking Institutions

Maintaining proper financial stability of each banking institution is one of the main tasks facing the banking system of Ukraine. This enables operational control over the financial strength of banking activities.The purpose of the article is to develop recommendations on the operational control of financial stability of banking and to test them using banking institutions in Ukraine as an example.To execute operational control over the financial stability of banking, economic standards of banking regulation are grouped under the “at least” or “not exceeding” principle. To determine their change over time, Shewhart control charts are proposed.The recommendations were tested through the example of the Ukrainian banking institutions (with state, foreign and private capital). It was found out that in 2017–2019, the following three economic standards of banking regulations were not met: regulatory capital adequacy, high credit risk, and average investments; besides, there were two standards at the limit of control value: the ratio of regulatory capital to total assets and the maximum amount of credit risk per counterparty.To improve the financial status of banking institutions, it is recommended to take organizational and financial measures to change the average value of the relevant economic standards for banking regulation to a level that ensures financial stability.

scholarly journals Profitabilitas Perbankan Dilihat dari Aspek Dana Pihak Ketiga, Kecukupan Modal dan Risiko Kredit

JURNAL PUNDI ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Riri Mayliza ◽  
Lola Fitria Sari
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Financial Institution ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Bank Profitability ◽  
Observation Period

Banking is a financial institution that has an important role in the economic system in Indonesia. Economic development cannot be separated from the banking sector and various factors that can influence it. This study aims to examine the effect of third-party funds, capital adequacy and credit risk toward bank profitability. The sample used in this study are banking companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange and not experiencing delisting during the 2013 to 2015 observation period. Based on the results of multiple linear regression analysis it can be concluded that third-party funds and capital adequacy partially have a positive and significant impact on profitability. Meanwhile, credit risk partially has a negative and significant effect on profitability

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