scholarly journals Physics-Guided Machine Learning for Scientific Discovery: An Application in Simulating Lake Temperature Profiles

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-26
Author(s):  
Xiaowei Jia ◽  
Jared Willard ◽  
Anuj Karpatne ◽  
Jordan S. Read ◽  
Jacob A. Zwart ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Environmental Sustainability ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Scientific Discovery ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Physical Processes ◽  
Aquatic Resource ◽  
The Impact

Physics-based models are often used to study engineering and environmental systems. The ability to model these systems is the key to achieving our future environmental sustainability and improving the quality of human life. This article focuses on simulating lake water temperature, which is critical for understanding the impact of changing climate on aquatic ecosystems and assisting in aquatic resource management decisions. General Lake Model (GLM) is a state-of-the-art physics-based model used for addressing such problems. However, like other physics-based models used for studying scientific and engineering systems, it has several well-known limitations due to simplified representations of the physical processes being modeled or challenges in selecting appropriate parameters. While state-of-the-art machine learning models can sometimes outperform physics-based models given ample amount of training data, they can produce results that are physically inconsistent. This article proposes a physics-guided recurrent neural network model (PGRNN) that combines RNNs and physics-based models to leverage their complementary strengths and improves the modeling of physical processes. Specifically, we show that a PGRNN can improve prediction accuracy over that of physics-based models (by over 20% even with very little training data), while generating outputs consistent with physical laws. An important aspect of our PGRNN approach lies in its ability to incorporate the knowledge encoded in physics-based models. This allows training the PGRNN model using very few true observed data while also ensuring high prediction accuracy. Although we present and evaluate this methodology in the context of modeling the dynamics of temperature in lakes, it is applicable more widely to a range of scientific and engineering disciplines where physics-based (also known as mechanistic) models are used.

scholarly journals Rationale Discovery and Explainable AI

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cor Steging ◽  
Silja Renooij ◽  
Bart Verheij
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Feature Detection ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
High Accuracy ◽  
Learning Systems ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Relevant Feature ◽  
Explainable Ai ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Impact

The justification of an algorithm’s outcomes is important in many domains, and in particular in the law. However, previous research has shown that machine learning systems can make the right decisions for the wrong reasons: despite high accuracies, not all of the conditions that define the domain of the training data are learned. In this study, we investigate what the system does learn, using state-of-the-art explainable AI techniques. With the use of SHAP and LIME, we are able to show which features impact the decision making process and how the impact changes with different distributions of the training data. However, our results also show that even high accuracy and good relevant feature detection are no guarantee for a sound rationale. Hence these state-of-the-art explainable AI techniques cannot be used to fully expose unsound rationales, further advocating the need for a separate method for rationale evaluation.

scholarly journals Airbnb Short-term Housing Rental Status Prediction Model Under the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 251 ◽  
pp. 01017
Author(s):  
Zhixiang Lu
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
New York ◽  
Regional Differences ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Visual Analysis ◽  
Sharing Economy ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Emerging Industries ◽  
Machine Learning Model ◽  
The Impact

With the vigorous development of the sharing economy, the short-term rental industry has also spawned many emerging industries that belong to the sharing economy. However, due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, many sharing economy industries, including the short-term housing leasing industry, have been affected. This study takes the rental information of 1,004 short-term rental houses in New York in April 2020 as an example, through machine learning and quantitative analysis, we conducted statistical and visual analysis on the impact of different factors on the housing rental status. This project is based on the machine learning model to predict the changes in the rental status of the house on the time series. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the random forest model has reached more than 94%, and the prediction accuracy of the logistic model has reached more than 74%. At the same time, we have further explored the impact of time span differences and regional differences on the housing rental status.

scholarly journals DANNP: an efficient artificial neural network pruning tool

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. e137 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mona Alshahrani ◽  
Othman Soufan ◽  
Arturo Magana-Mora ◽  
Vladimir B. Bajic
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Classification Problems ◽  
Link Type ◽  
On Line ◽  
Pruning Algorithms ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
The Impact

Background Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are a robust class of machine learning models and are a frequent choice for solving classification problems. However, determining the structure of the ANNs is not trivial as a large number of weights (connection links) may lead to overfitting the training data. Although several ANN pruning algorithms have been proposed for the simplification of ANNs, these algorithms are not able to efficiently cope with intricate ANN structures required for complex classification problems. Methods We developed DANNP, a web-based tool, that implements parallelized versions of several ANN pruning algorithms. The DANNP tool uses a modified version of the Fast Compressed Neural Network software implemented in C++ to considerably enhance the running time of the ANN pruning algorithms we implemented. In addition to the performance evaluation of the pruned ANNs, we systematically compared the set of features that remained in the pruned ANN with those obtained by different state-of-the-art feature selection (FS) methods. Results Although the ANN pruning algorithms are not entirely parallelizable, DANNP was able to speed up the ANN pruning up to eight times on a 32-core machine, compared to the serial implementations. To assess the impact of the ANN pruning by DANNP tool, we used 16 datasets from different domains. In eight out of the 16 datasets, DANNP significantly reduced the number of weights by 70%–99%, while maintaining a competitive or better model performance compared to the unpruned ANN. Finally, we used a naïve Bayes classifier derived with the features selected as a byproduct of the ANN pruning and demonstrated that its accuracy is comparable to those obtained by the classifiers trained with the features selected by several state-of-the-art FS methods. The FS ranking methodology proposed in this study allows the users to identify the most discriminant features of the problem at hand. To the best of our knowledge, DANNP (publicly available at www.cbrc.kaust.edu.sa/dannp) is the only available and on-line accessible tool that provides multiple parallelized ANN pruning options. Datasets and DANNP code can be obtained at www.cbrc.kaust.edu.sa/dannp/data.php and https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1001086.

scholarly journals Estimating probability of banking crises using random forest

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 407
Author(s):  
Sri Hartini ◽  
Zuherman Rustam ◽  
Glori Stephani Saragih ◽  
María Jesús Segovia Vargas
Keyword(s):  
Random Forest ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Banking Crises ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Systemic Crisis ◽  
Classification And Regression ◽  
Systemic Crises ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Better Than

<span id="docs-internal-guid-4935b5ce-7fff-d9fa-75c7-0c6a5aa1f9a6"><span>Banks have a crucial role in the financial system. When many banks suffer from the crisis, it can lead to financial instability. According to the impact of the crises, the banking crisis can be divided into two categories, namely systemic and non-systemic crisis. When systemic crises happen, it may cause even stable banks bankrupt. Hence, this paper proposed a random forest for estimating the probability of banking crises as prevention action. Random forest is well-known as a robust technique both in classification and regression, which is far from the intervention of outliers and overfitting. The experiments were then constructed using the financial crisis database, containing a sample of 79 countries in the period 1981-1999 (annual data). This dataset has 521 samples consisting of 164 crisis samples and 357 non-crisis cases. From the experiments, it was concluded that utilizing 90 percent of training data would deliver 0.98 accuracy, 0.92 sensitivity, 1.00 precision, and 0.96 F1-Score as the highest score than other percentages of training data. These results are also better than state-of-the-art methods used in the same dataset. Therefore, the proposed method is shown promising results to predict the probability of banking crises.</span></span>

scholarly journals A max-margin training of RNA secondary structure prediction integrated with the thermodynamic model

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manato Akiyama ◽  
Kengo Sato ◽  
Yasubumi Sakakibara
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Secondary Structure ◽  
Structure Prediction ◽  
Rna Secondary Structure ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Secondary Structure Prediction ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Rna Secondary Structure Prediction ◽  
Fine Grained

AbstractMotivation: A popular approach for predicting RNA secondary structure is the thermodynamic nearest neighbor model that finds a thermodynamically most stable secondary structure with the minimum free energy (MFE). For further improvement, an alternative approach that is based on machine learning techniques has been developed. The machine learning based approach can employ a fine-grained model that includes much richer feature representations with the ability to fit the training data. Although a machine learning based fine-grained model achieved extremely high performance in prediction accuracy, a possibility of the risk of overfitting for such model has been reported.Results: In this paper, we propose a novel algorithm for RNA secondary structure prediction that integrates the thermodynamic approach and the machine learning based weighted approach. Ourfine-grained model combines the experimentally determined thermodynamic parameters with a large number of scoring parameters for detailed contexts of features that are trained by the structured support vector machine (SSVM) with the ℓ1 regularization to avoid overfitting. Our benchmark shows that our algorithm achieves the best prediction accuracy compared with existing methods, and heavy overfitting cannot be observed.Availability: The implementation of our algorithm is available at https://github.com/keio-bioinformatics/mxfold.Contact:[email protected]

scholarly journals Machine Learning for Landslides Prevention: A Survey

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhengjing Ma ◽  
Gang Mei
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Relevant Research ◽  
Related Information ◽  
Urgent Task ◽  
Comprehensive Survey

Landslides are one of the most critical categories of natural disasters worldwide and induce severely destructive outcomes to human life and the overall economic system. To reduce its negative effects, landslides prevention has become an urgent task, which includes investigating landslide-related information and predicting potential landslides. Machine learning is a state-of-the-art analytics tool that has been widely used in landslides prevention. This paper presents a comprehensive survey of relevant research on machine learning applied in landslides prevention, mainly focusing on (1) landslides detection based on images, (2) landslides susceptibility assessment, and (3) the development of landslide warning systems. Moreover, this paper discusses the current challenges and potential opportunities in the application of machine learning algorithms for landslides prevention.

HuDA_COVID Human Disposition Analysis during COVID-19 using Machine Learning

2022 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 0-0
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Health Status ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Psychological Needs ◽  
Mass Survey ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Methodical Approach ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Impact

Coronavirus has greatly impacted various aspects of human life, including human psychology & human disposition. In this paper, we attempted to analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on human health. We propose Human Disposition Analysis during COVID-19 using machine learning (HuDA_COVID), where factors such as age, employment, addiction, stress level are studied for human disposition analysis. A mass survey is conducted on individuals of various age groups, regions & professions, and the methodology achieved varied accuracy ranges of 87.5% to 98%. The study shows people are worried about lockdown, work & relationships. Furthermore, 23% of the respondents have not had any effect. 45% and 32% have had positive and negative effects, respectively. It is a novel study in human disposition analysis in COVID-19 where a novel weighted assignment indicating the health status is also proposed. HuDA_COVID clearly indicates a need for a methodical approach towards the human psychological needs to help the social organizations formulating holistic interventions for affected individuals.

Data science in economics: comprehensive review of advanced machine learning and deep learning methods

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saeed Nosratabadi ◽  
Amir Mosavi ◽  
Puhong Duan ◽  
Pedram Ghamisi ◽  
Filip Ferdinand ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Data Science ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Hybrid Models ◽  
The Other ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Comprehensive Review

Abstract This paper provides the state of the art of data science in economics. Through a novel taxonomy of applications and methods advances in data science are investigated. The data science advances are investigated in three individual classes of deep learning models, ensemble models, and hybrid models. Application domains include stock market, marketing, E-commerce, corporate banking, and cryptocurrency. Prisma method, a systematic literature review methodology is used to ensure the quality of the survey. The findings revealed that the trends are on advancement of hybrid models as more than 51% of the reviewed articles applied hybrid model. On the other hand, it is found that based on the RMSE accuracy metric, hybrid models had higher prediction accuracy than other algorithms. While it is expected the trends go toward the advancements of deep learning models.

scholarly journals Noise Prediction Using Machine Learning with Measurements Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (18) ◽  
pp. 6619
Author(s):  
Po-Jiun Wen ◽  
Chihpin Huang
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Noise Exposure ◽  
Learning Model ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Noise Prediction ◽  
Time Duration ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
The Impact

The noise prediction using machine learning is a special study that has recently received increased attention. This is particularly true in workplaces with noise pollution, which increases noise exposure for general laborers. This study attempts to analyze the noise equivalent level (Leq) at the National Synchrotron Radiation Research Center (NSRRC) facility and establish a machine learning model for noise prediction. This study utilized the gradient boosting model (GBM) as the learning model in which past noise measurement records and many other features are integrated as the proposed model makes a prediction. This study analyzed the time duration and frequency of the collected Leq and also investigated the impact of training data selection. The results presented in this paper indicate that the proposed prediction model works well in almost noise sensors and frequencies. Moreover, the model performed especially well in sensor 8 (125 Hz), which was determined to be a serious noise zone in the past noise measurements. The results also show that the root-mean-square-error (RMSE) of the predicted harmful noise was less than 1 dBA and the coefficient of determination (R2) value was greater than 0.7. That is, the working field showed a favorable noise prediction performance using the proposed method. This positive result shows the ability of the proposed approach in noise prediction, thus providing a notification to the laborer to prevent long-term exposure. In addition, the proposed model accurately predicts noise future pollution, which is essential for laborers in high-noise environments. This would keep employees healthy in avoiding noise harmful positions to prevent people from working in that environment.

scholarly journals Rack Temperature Prediction Model Using Machine Learning after Stopping Computer Room Air Conditioner in Server Room

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (17) ◽  
pp. 4300
Author(s):  
Kosuke Sasakura ◽  
Takeshi Aoki ◽  
Masayoshi Komatsu ◽  
Takeshi Watanabe
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
High Heat ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Air Conditioner ◽  
Tree Model ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Temperature Environment ◽  
The Impact

Data centers (DCs) are becoming increasingly important in recent years, and highly efficient and reliable operation and management of DCs is now required. The generated heat density of the rack and information and communication technology (ICT) equipment is predicted to get higher in the future, so it is crucial to maintain the appropriate temperature environment in the server room where high heat is generated in order to ensure continuous service. It is especially important to predict changes of rack intake temperature in the server room when the computer room air conditioner (CRAC) is shut down, which can cause a rapid rise in temperature. However, it is quite difficult to predict the rack temperature accurately, which in turn makes it difficult to determine the impact on service in advance. In this research, we propose a model that predicts the rack intake temperature after the CRAC is shut down. Specifically, we use machine learning to construct a gradient boosting decision tree model with data from the CRAC, ICT equipment, and rack intake temperature. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method has a very high prediction accuracy: the coefficient of determination was 0.90 and the root mean square error (RMSE) was 0.54. Our model makes it possible to evaluate the impact on service and determine if action to maintain the temperature environment is required. We also clarify the effect of explanatory variables and training data of the machine learning on the model accuracy.

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